Actually, maybe: How German Angst could become Europe’s nightmare
Germany’s political centre is crumbling—but its leaders appear unable to get ahead of the impending crisis
Experts & Staff
Jana Puglierin
Head, ECFR Berlin
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
German and European foreign, security and defence policy; Germany's role in Europe; transatlantic relations
Languages
German, English, Italian
Biography
Dr Jana Puglierin is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and head of its Berlin office since January 2020. She directs ECFR’s Re:Order project, which explores emerging visions of the global order and the interplay between economic might and geopolitical influence.
Puglierin headed the Alfred von Oppenheim Centre for European Policy Studies at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) from December 2015 to December 2019, and was a research fellow with its Berlin Future Forum from September 2013 to November 2015. Before joining DGAP, she worked as an adviser for a member of the Bundestag on disarmament, arms control and non-proliferation, and on German and European foreign and security policy. Between 2003 and 2010, she was researcher and lecturer to the chair of political science and contemporary history, as well as in the programme for North American studies at the University of Bonn. In summer 2010, Puglierin held a lectureship at the Chemnitz University of Technology.
After her Abitur in Siegen in 1997, she spent a year in Paris completing the Cours de civilisation française de la Sorbonne. She studied political science, public law and sociology at the University of Bonn from 1998 to 2003, and spent a semester at Venice International University in 2002. Her doctorate at the University of Bonn focused on the life and thought of political scientist John Herz, for which she also conducted research in the United States.
Puglierin has been a member of the advisory board to the federal government for Civilian Crisis Prevention and Peacebuilding since January 2023. Her work focuses on German and European foreign, security and defence policy, and Germany’s role in Europe and transatlantic relations. In January 2026, the Federal Minister of Defence awarded Puglierin the Bundeswehr Cross of Honour in gold.
She is a frequent commentator in German and international media and writes a monthly column for Handelsblatt. Her book “Wer verteidigt Europa? Die neuen Kriegsgefahren und was wir tun müssen, um uns zu schützen” (“Who Will Defend Europe? New War Dangers: What is required for our protection”) was published in January 2026 with Rowohlt in Germany.
Political crisis in Germany
Mark Leonard welcomes Jörg Lau and Jana Puglierin to discuss Germany’s deepening political crisis, the rise of the AfD and how the country’s regional elections could impact Europe’s largest democracy
Making defence European again
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of defence and deterrence
European Power
From rupture to re-ordering: Middle powers and Europe’s choices
The international system is no longer held together by a single dominant vision of order. While the US is retreating from its dominant role, China and Russia are advancing competing models of order. In this context, middle powers are actively pursuing new strategies to secure their autonomy and expand their influence. They are challenging established hierarchies, reshaping economic and connectivity networks, and building alternative forms of cooperation that…
Europe, Trump and the war in Iran
Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras, Carla Hobbs, Camille Lons, Jana Puglierin and Arturo Varvelli to discuss how Europe is responding to the war in Iran
After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order
As American leadership wanes, middle powers are stitching a patchwork order through new approaches to conflict mediation, connectivity and development. Although these formats are fragmented and opportunistic, Europe should engage with them pragmatically
Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
European Power
Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump…
2
Dec
European Power
A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics – an unpredictable, fast-changing and often baffling mix of U.S. trade, investment and finance policies that have a direct impact on Europe’s interests. In her latest ECFR policy brief,…
A new chapter in German politics
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin to discuss the inauguration of the new German government, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz
Publications
Making defence European again
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of defence and deterrence
After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order
As American leadership wanes, middle powers are stitching a patchwork order through new approaches to conflict mediation, connectivity and development. Although these formats are fragmented and opportunistic, Europe should engage with them pragmatically
Transatlantic twilight: European public opinion and the long shadow of Trump
A new ECFR poll points to Europeans’ widespread (but not universal) reassessment of the transatlantic relationship, and extensive opportunities for the new US president to divide them if they do not work together
Keeping America close, Russia down, and China far away: How Europeans navigate a competitive world
European citizens are adapting slowly to the new geopolitical landscape. But leaders have an opportunity to build public consensus on Europe’s approach to China, the US, and Russia
The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China
Beyond Merkelism: What Europeans expect of post-election Germany
Paradoxically, to fulfil many Europeans’ expectations, Berlin will need to revise the principles of Merkelism that created this trust
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
How to prevent Germany from becoming Eurosceptic
To engage more confidently with a world that is changing, outward-looking Germans need to shape a progressive new national identity before it is defined by the forces of isolation and exclusion
Crisis of confidence: How Europeans see their place in the world
Public faith in EU institutions has declined due to their handling of the covid-19 pandemic. However, citizens still believe in the need for greater cooperation
The crisis that made the European Union: European cohesion in the age of covid
The pandemic poses a threat to European cohesion by increasing economic divides and undermining trust in the EU and national governments
Articles
Actually, maybe: How German Angst could become Europe’s nightmare
Germany’s political centre is crumbling—but its leaders appear unable to get ahead of the impending crisis
Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
From fence-sitter to pace-setter: How Merz’s Germany can lead Europe
On foreign policy, Germany’s new chancellor will be pulled between conservatism and radicalism. For Europe’s sake, he must choose the latter
Taiwan’s balancing act: Keeping the US in, China out, and domestic technology superior
Amid the global political turmoil, Taipei is aiming to keep Washington onside. But the arrival of the second Trump administration presents a parallel opportunity for Europe and Taiwan to deepen their cooperation in areas of mutual interest
How to prevent the next war in Europe: A five-point plan
Europe and Ukraine are on the brink of disaster. An emergency programme is needed that relieves the US, strengthens Ukraine—and prevents the war from spreading. This is what it could look like
The Merz doctrine: What a CDU-led government would mean for German foreign policy
Germany’s likely next chancellor shares his party’s pro-EU and Atlanticist instincts, but also the country’s wider reluctance to play an exceptional international role
War, peace, and populism: How Germany’s extremist parties are shaping its foreign policy debate
Germany’s populist parties have enjoyed electoral success with their “anti-establishment” foreign policy. The governing centrist coalition must act fast to address their dangerous anti-Western stance before it becomes mainstream
Home alone: Germany’s security and defence policy when its closest allies are gone
By relying extensively on France and the US for its security and defence, Germany could easily find itself isolated and at risk. Berlin needs to act fast
Turning point or turning back: German defence policy after Zeitenwende
Germany’s defence policy has come a long way in the last two years. But looking at the challenges that lie ahead for Germany, the current course falls short – and the toughest political debates are yet to come
Multilateral changes: Turn and face the strange
Russia’s war on Ukraine has exposed the weaknesses of the already creaking multilateral system. Europeans need to accept the radical changes that are under way and adapt their approach to international cooperation
Specials
Multilateral Matchmaker
Multilateral coalitions are increasingly important for combatting global challenges. Europeans have many eligible – and untapped – potential partner countries, but to stand out they need to ensure their offer is as grounded in these partners’ interests as their own
European Sovereignty Index
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act
EU Cohesion Monitor
European cohesion is bouncing back after crisis years. The EU Cohesion Monitor presents new insights on cohesion as an underestimated source of strength and collective action in the EU
EU Coalition Explorer
The Coalition Explorer illustrates the expert opinions of more than 800 respondents who work on European policy and creates a visual understanding of the views held by Europe’s professional political class
European Solidarity Tracker
The European Solidarity Tracker collects and displays instances of pan-European solidarity throughout the coronavirus crisis
Podcasts
Political crisis in Germany
Mark Leonard welcomes Jörg Lau and Jana Puglierin to discuss Germany’s deepening political crisis, the rise of the AfD and how the country’s regional elections could impact Europe’s largest democracy
Europe, Trump and the war in Iran
Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras, Carla Hobbs, Camille Lons, Jana Puglierin and Arturo Varvelli to discuss how Europe is responding to the war in Iran
A new chapter in German politics
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin to discuss the inauguration of the new German government, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz
What’s next for Berlin?
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Puglierin to unpack what Friedrich Merz’s rise to the chancellorship means for German politics—and for Europe
German elections: Impact and implications for Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Searching for Deutschland co-hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin, and ECFR colleagues Piotr Buras and Marie Dumoulin, to discuss the impact of Germany’s federal election on the country and beyond
What comes next: European discord or European leadership?
The final episode of Searching for Deutschland—a special crossover with the World in 30 Minutes—sees experts from Berlin, London, Paris and Warsaw break down…
Germany’s election results: Continuity or turning point?
On the morning after Germany’s election, Searching for Deutschland hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin were joined for a live webinar by ECFR colleagues Timo Lochocki…
Ukraine and the US-Russia talks: Deterrence or disarray?
In Searching for Deutschland’s last pre-election episode, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin review the Munich Security Conference, the US-Russia talks on Ukraine, and what the new…
Live from the Munich Security Conference: Europe’s wake-up call
In Munich, Mark Leonard welcomes Ulrike Franke, Camille Grand, Janka Oertel and Jana Puglierin to unpack this year’s security conference
Defence and the Zeitenwende: Glass half-empty or half-full?
Ahead of the Munich Security Conference, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin talk German defence and the future of the country’s armed forces. They review the…
Events
European Power
From rupture to re-ordering: Middle powers and Europe’s choices
The international system is no longer held together by a single dominant vision of order. While the US is retreating from its dominant role, China and Russia are advancing competing models of order. In this context, middle powers are actively pursuing new strategies to secure their autonomy and expand their influence. They are challenging established hierarchies, reshaping economic and connectivity networks, and building alternative forms of cooperation that…
European Power
Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump…
2
Dec
European Power
A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics – an unpredictable, fast-changing and often baffling mix of U.S. trade, investment and finance policies that have a direct impact on Europe’s interests. In her latest ECFR policy brief,…
European Power
ECFR election insights: Will Germany lead or lag in Europe’s next foreign policy chapter?
Germany’s election results are in—now what? Join the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) for a timely post-election analysis in the early morning after results are in. What does the outcome mean for Germany’s role on the European and global stage? Will the new government take a leadership role in shaping Europe’s foreign policy, or…
European Power
European views on a second Trump presidency: Time for pragmatism
The re-election of President Trump sent shockwaves across Europe and around the world. From a global perspective, Europeans are seemingly alone in their pessimism about a second Trump mandate compared to people in other countries around the world. But what does the picture look like if we zoom-in on Europe?…
European Power
Samba Steps: Understanding Brazil’s global role and what it means for Europe
As global power dynamics shift amid intensifying US-China rivalry, the rise of assertive middle powers, and increased scepticism toward the international rules-based order, Europe finds itself navigating new challenges in securing its global position. To avoid being drawn into a new Cold War dynamic, Europe must seek partnerships with emerging powers, especially those shaping…
17
Oct
Africa
Das ÜberLeben der Anderen: Warum Deutschlands Sicherheit global gedacht werden muss
Konflikte in Gaza, im Sudan und in der Ukraine, irreguläre Migration, Klimakrise und Extremismus: Die Welt wird von immer mehr gleichzeitig aufretenden Krisen erschüttert, die sich gegenseitig bedingen und verschärfen. Die Welt ordnet sich neu und geopolitische Einflusszonen reiben sich aneinander. Damit ist die Sicherheit Deutschlands enger denn je mit der Sicherheit und Stabilität…
United States
Dormant NATO: Future Prospects and Challenges
Russia’s war against Ukraine has shown how much the Europeans are still dependent on the US to ensure their security, despite all the talk of “strategic autonomy”. Even though Europeans have significantly increased their defence spending over the past two years, there is still a massive transatlantic imbalance in NATO. The potential re-election of…
20
Jun
Asia
How to Manage Europe’s Green Technology Dependence on China: A Black Coffee Morning
As the global landscape shifts towards strategic rivalry between China and the advanced industrial economies of the West, Europe finds itself at a crossroads, needing to re-evaluate its approach. “De-risking” has emerged as a guiding principle for European leaders in their interactions with China, particularly when it comes to vital green technologies, where Europe…
6
Mar
European Power
Finding untapped partners for a multilateral world: A Black Coffee Morning
Multilateralism is in crisis. Europeans find it increasingly difficult to shape their environment and make themselves heard on the global stage. Their relative weight is declining and the space for cooperation is shrinking with great powers competing more intensely. More than ever, Europeans need global partners to advance multilateral solutions to global problems. Europe’s traditional…
In the media
Jana Puglierin on the consequences of a potential withdrawal of US troops from Germany
Jana Puglierin on the success of the “Rutte Method” at the NATO summit
Jana Puglierin on Schrödinger’s NATO
Jana Puglierin on Trump’s influence at the NATO summit in Ankara
Jana Puglierin on potentials and obstacles of a European defence without the US