Red lines (blow away): Ukraine’s incursion into Russia
Ukraine’s audacious incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has changed the narrative of the war – and called Putin’s bluff on his so-called red lines
Wider Europe
Slippery swap: The dilemmas of prisoner exchanges between Russia and the West
The recent prisoner swap between Russia and the West raises pressing questions over how Western decision-makers should negotiate with Moscow in the future without giving it the upper hand
Rebuilding Ukraine: How a ‘prevention first’ approach can avert destruction and save costs
Secure air defences and freer weapons use would encourage Ukrainians to return home, protect energy supplies, and boost the economy
Finding friends: Europe, Serbia, and the lithium catalyst
A new EU agreement on lithium could improve aspects of governance in Serbia – if the bloc makes the most of this new partnership with Belgrade
Dreaming of EU: The challenges ahead for Ukraine’s and Moldova’s accession
Accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova have formally begun. But four main challenges lay ahead before the EU welcomes its eastern neighbours into the bloc
Growing pains: The future of EU enlargement after the European Parliament election
With more right-wing MEPs in the next European Parliament, the EU’s enlargement plans may be in jeopardy unless the next commission president stands firm
Setting boundaries: The fallout of Armenia’s border agreement with Azerbaijan
What started as a promising border agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan may end up further weakening the government in Yerevan and undermining its reform agenda
Digital deceptions: How a European Democracy Shield can help tackle Russian disinformation
In the lead up to the European Parliament election, rising Russian disinformation threatens to sway voters. No matter the election result, the EU should take coordinated and assertive action
Ukraine can still recover with bolder Western support – but right now it’s on the ropes
The Ukrainian world heavyweight boxing champion beat back a giant opponent, but his country can’t defeat Russia on its own
Putin’s military makeover: What to expect from Russia’s new defence minister
Putin’s appointment of Andrei Belousov as defence minister signals the Kremlin’s push to rapidly modernise the Russian military – and further reshuffles may be on the horizon
Publications
The interest of values: The EU’s democracy promotion in the Western Balkans and the eastern neighbourhood
With EU enlargement back on the agenda, democracy promotion in candidate countries is a key geopolitical interest for the bloc. The EU’s previous efforts to promote democracy in the Western Balkans and eastern neighbourhood may hold valuable lessons for the years ahead
Late-stage Putinism: The war in Ukraine and Russia’s shifting ideology
The Kremlin is creating a new, more unified ideology, which it is disseminating among the Russian population and using to attract global south countries to a new conservative alliance
Brass tacks: Why Russia’s military fails to reform
The Kremlin has long attempted to reform Russia’s military, but a dysfunctional system of civilian control has led to repeated failures, including in its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. These problems will likely continue after the war unless a new Russian leadership emerges to address these persistent systemic problems
Life in exile: A new approach to Russian democrats in Europe
European governments need a more coordinated response to Russian democrats in exile – to give them certainty for the future and help guard against Kremlin subversion
Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine
The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive, but prevail
From Russia with love: How Moscow courts the global south
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has been competing with the West for the support of the rest of the world. But with all of its relationships now subordinate to its war effort, Moscow’s foreign policy is weakened
Reformation nation: Wartime politics in Ukraine
No clear postwar situation is likely to emerge in Ukraine. The country’s EU partners will have to help it reform during wartime
Catch-27: The contradictory thinking about enlargement in the EU
A new power audit of member states’ positions on EU enlargement shows broad agreement that it is a geopolitical necessity, but major disagreements about how to prepare the EU. To make credible progress, EU member states need to agree on a roadmap that addresses their conflicting concerns at the European Council meeting in December
Sustain and prosper: How Europeans can support Ukraine
The EU and its member states need to make an urgent commitment to Ukraine’s security and long-term commitment to its European future. If they do not, they risk alienating the very Ukrainians they seek to support
Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of middle powers
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
Articles
Red lines (blow away): Ukraine’s incursion into Russia
Ukraine’s audacious incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has changed the narrative of the war – and called Putin’s bluff on his so-called red lines
Slippery swap: The dilemmas of prisoner exchanges between Russia and the West
The recent prisoner swap between Russia and the West raises pressing questions over how Western decision-makers should negotiate with Moscow in the future without giving it the upper hand
Rebuilding Ukraine: How a ‘prevention first’ approach can avert destruction and save costs
Secure air defences and freer weapons use would encourage Ukrainians to return home, protect energy supplies, and boost the economy
Finding friends: Europe, Serbia, and the lithium catalyst
A new EU agreement on lithium could improve aspects of governance in Serbia – if the bloc makes the most of this new partnership with Belgrade
Dreaming of EU: The challenges ahead for Ukraine’s and Moldova’s accession
Accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova have formally begun. But four main challenges lay ahead before the EU welcomes its eastern neighbours into the bloc
Growing pains: The future of EU enlargement after the European Parliament election
With more right-wing MEPs in the next European Parliament, the EU’s enlargement plans may be in jeopardy unless the next commission president stands firm
Setting boundaries: The fallout of Armenia’s border agreement with Azerbaijan
What started as a promising border agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan may end up further weakening the government in Yerevan and undermining its reform agenda
Digital deceptions: How a European Democracy Shield can help tackle Russian disinformation
In the lead up to the European Parliament election, rising Russian disinformation threatens to sway voters. No matter the election result, the EU should take coordinated and assertive action
Ukraine can still recover with bolder Western support – but right now it’s on the ropes
The Ukrainian world heavyweight boxing champion beat back a giant opponent, but his country can’t defeat Russia on its own
Putin’s military makeover: What to expect from Russia’s new defence minister
Putin’s appointment of Andrei Belousov as defence minister signals the Kremlin’s push to rapidly modernise the Russian military – and further reshuffles may be on the horizon
Specials
Mapping China’s rise in the Western Balkans
China is building up its influence in the Western Balkans through projects focused on everything from energy and infrastructure to culture, education, and media. If the European Union is to achieve its geopolitical goals in the region, it will need to understand the nature of competition with Beijing in all these areas
Russia in the grey zones
What role does Russia play in the breakaway regions of Eastern Europe?
Life in the grey zones: Reports from Europe’s breakaway regions
Locked in a shadowy life between war and peace, “grey zones” now litter the map of Eastern Europe
Minsk Monitor
Following high level ministerial meetings on Ukraine, ECFR's Wider Europe team report on the implementation the Minsk agreement
Podcasts
East meets West in Ankara: Inside the prisoner swap with Russia
The prisoner exchange between the West and Russia last week was the largest swap since the end of the cold war. At Turkey’s Ankara airport,…
The World After the West: Ayşe Zarakol on Turkey
Mark Leonard welcomes Ayşe Zarakol to talk about global order and Turkey
Unity or disunity for Ukraine: that is the question
In the first big multilateral test for prime minister Giorgia Meloni, this mini-series will explore the four main priorities of Italy’s 2024 G7 presidency: Ukraine, AI, infrastructure, and Africa
Speeding like a troika: Russia’s uncertain futures
In this final episode, we discuss how the war has transformed Russian society and political culture, and outline possible scenarios for its medium to long term political trajectory
The European pulse: the election and beyond
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, Piotr Buras, Jana Puglierin, Maria Simeonova, José Ignacio Torreblanca, and Arturo Varvelli to discuss the European Parliament elections and the future of European politics
Under the Overcoat: Russian foreign policy: from a U-Turn over the Atlantic to the zigzags of history
This podcast explores deeper trends beneath the surface of Russia’s daily politics. In this episode, we delve deeper into Russia’s foreign policy, taking a long-term perspective.
Under the Overcoat: But the people are silent
This podcast explores deeper trends beneath the surface of Russia’s daily politics. In this episode, we examine public opinion in Russia
Under the Overcoat: Dead Souls, Volume Two
This podcast explores deeper trends beneath the surface of Russia’s daily politics. In this episode, we dive deeper into Russia’s economy during the war on Ukraine
Ukraine’s future in NATO
Mark Leonard welcomes Ivan Krastev to discuss how NATO membership can help Ukraine negotiate a durable peace
Under the Overcoat: Are we the baddies? Russian civil-military relations and the bomb
This podcast explores deeper trends beneath the surface of Russia’s daily politics. In this episode, we analyse who is really in charge of the Russian military and its nuclear weapons.
Events
9 Jul
Still standing together: A NATO summit on Ukraine’s fate
As leaders are about to take pivotal decisions for Ukraine’s fate at the NATO summit, join us for a discussion about pathways and policy options for…
2 Jul
A “State-Civilization”: Russia’s ideological renewal after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine
This webinar will explore the role of ideology in the day-to-day management of the Russian political regime
27 Jun
75 anni di NATO e Italia: stato dell’arte e sfide future
In occasione del 75esimo anniversario della NATO, la conferenza farà il punto sia sulla NATO nel contesto attuale e futuro, sia soprattutto sul ruolo dell’Italia nell’alleanza atlantica e il rapporto tra quest’ultima e gli interessi nazionali
10 Jun
ECFR’s Election Insights: Implications for Europe’s foreign policy agenda
This webinar will provide a snapshot analysis of election results and their implications for Europe’s foreign policy and security agenda. Featuring perspectives from selected ECFR…
3 Jun
Disinformation storm. Managing the unmanageable?
The Russian large-scale invasion of Ukraine has opened many European pandora boxes. Among them, energy and economic dependence from Russia; EU’s reaction time to Putin’s aggression; European disunity; the military and defense question; Europe’s fragility in the technological competition. Last, but not least, Europe’s exposure to external actors’ influence, with consequences on the information space and the “Open Internet” era, undermined like never before by disinformation
8 May
Rome Foreign Policy Club, Terza Edizione – Road to November 2024: prospettive e scenari globali delle elezioni americane
Nella sua edizione 2024, il Rome Foreign Policy Club riunisce giovani ricercatori italiani under 40 per costruire ipotesi di scenario che possano supportare la definizione di policy da parte del Ministero per gli Affari Esteri e la Cooperazione Internazionale. L’evento più significativo per l’anno in corso è indubbiamente rappresentato dalle elezioni americane di novembre il cui esito avrà enormi implicazioni su due aspetti cruciali del contesto internazionale: i rapporti con Cina e Sud Globale e le relazioni con Mosca alla luce del conflitto in Ucraina
7 May
European Elections and beyond: Crafting Europe’s new geopolitical agenda
Amid a volatile geopolitical environment, ECFR’s recent public opinion poll ahead of the European elections shows that a geopolitical case for Europe resonates with voters,…
6 May
Geopolitics of Enlargement: Ukraine Strategy
This webinar will discuss current revisions of the EU approach to enlargement policy and the security implications for Ukraine and the neighborhoods
25 Apr
Belarus in 2024: Navigating Trajectories of War and Repression
This event will discuss Belarus’ role in Russia’s war against Ukraine and the repressions and threats faced by the democratic opposition in Belarus and in exile. It will also explore possible actions by Western countries in this context
9 Apr
Ukrainian Victory. How to bring sustainable peace back to Europe
The event, organised by the Embassy of Ukraine in Rome and the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in Rome in cooperation with the Italian Federation for Human Rights (FIDU) and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) will discuss the current situation in Ukraine in a closed-door roundtable, with the participation of visiting Ukrainian experts
In the media
And if you then go to Russia and ask them to stop it, they can deny any responsibility as they are technically not involved
There is no doubt that the Russian armed forces will do everything in their power to raze the city and its logistics to the ground
Gustav Gressel on the Russian advance on the crucial supply hub of Pokrovsk and its impact on the Kursk offensive
