Violence in northern Kosovo: The United States’ failed bet on Serbia
Western sponsors of the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade are wrong to believe Serbia will work to make a success of diplomacy
Wider Europe
Why the West must be ready for this moment of opportunity and risk in Ukraine
Ukrainians are preparing for a make-or-break counter-offensive. They have a theory of victory. Do we?
The Ukraine war and European identity
With the war in Ukraine well into its second year, European politicians from across the political spectrum are still eager to show their support for the country. But a battle for the soul of Europe is brewing beneath the surface, and next year’s European Parliament elections could serve as its first battleground.
Trial and tribulation: The complex process of prosecuting war crimes in Kosovo
The Kosovo Specialist Chambers aims to bring justice to victims of war crimes committed during the Kosovo war. But so far, it is causing controversy and could complicate reconciliation efforts
The case for sending fighter jets to Ukraine
Ukraine needs fighter jets to counter Russia’s changing military approach. The US should learn from last year’s delay over tank deliveries and approve their release as soon as possible
How the West should prepare for the Turkish elections
The US and the EU should refrain from making any interventions during Turkey’s election period – but they may need to respond quickly depending on the results of the vote
A question of strategic credibility: How Europeans can fix the ammunition problem in Ukraine
Europeans need to take urgent steps to ensure a larger and more certain supply of ammunition to Ukraine – and thereby alter the military balance on the ground
The Zelensky-Lukashenka-Tsikhanouskaya triangle: Understanding Ukraine’s relationship with the Belarusian opposition
Despite their common goals, the Ukrainian authorities have shown little interest in cooperating with the Belarusian opposition. As an ally to both, the EU can facilitate their understanding and engagement
The insignificance of Putin’s latest nuclear bluster
Putin’s attention-seeking plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus underlines his commitment to nuclear risk manipulation – but his blackmail may be losing its potency
Escalating dependence: Russia’s nuclear plans for Belarus
Putin may be bluffing about the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. But if he follows through, the chance of a democratic transition for Belarus could all but vanish
Publications
Feeling the chill: Navigating Arctic governance amid Russia’s war on Ukraine
As Russia’s war on Ukraine highlights the Arctic’s geostrategic importance and disrupts its governance formats, European governments need to prioritise cooperation with each other and with the region’s indigenous peoples
Steppe change: How Russia’s war on Ukraine is reshaping Kazakhstan
Domestic unrest and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine left Kazakhstan in a precarious position. The EU should devise an approach that encourages and guides the country to genuine domestic transformation.
The politics of dialogue: How the EU can change the conversation in Kosovo and Serbia
A new agreement between Kosovo and Serbia is a welcome step – but the EU can transform the situation by setting out clearer accession prospects for both countries
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
New polling for ECFR reveals the West is consolidating – while facing an increasingly post-Western world, in which powers such as India and Turkiye are readier than ever to act independently
Broken Dream: The oligarch, Russia, and Georgia’s drift from Europe
Georgian government actions are hindering the country’s journey to the EU, yet the Georgian people are strongly pro-European. The EU should more tightly condition the support it provides
The old is dying and the new cannot be born: A power audit of EU-Russia relations
ECFR’s new EU-Russia power audit reveals a picture of success in decoupling from Moscow – and suggests the bloc could emerge stronger from the crisis
Cold winter: How the EU can help Moldova survive Russian pressure and protect its democracy
If Moldova can resist Russia’s weaponisation of gas and get through this winter, it should be able to make strong progress on its programme of reforms
Defend. Resist. Repeat: Ukraine’s lessons for European defence
Ukraine has mounted an innovative response to Russian aggression in 2022. The rest of Europe can learn from this – but should continue to provide weapons and training in return
In Europe’s defence: Why the EU needs a security compact with Ukraine
The EU should conclude a security compact with Ukraine. Such an agreement would help the country defend itself against Russia and maximise the effectiveness of European military support.
The past and the furious: How Russia’s revisionism threatens Bosnia
Russia is working to keep Bosnia divided. But many of the country’s problems are homegrown or exacerbated by neighbouring states.
Articles
Violence in northern Kosovo: The United States’ failed bet on Serbia
Western sponsors of the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade are wrong to believe Serbia will work to make a success of diplomacy
Why the West must be ready for this moment of opportunity and risk in Ukraine
Ukrainians are preparing for a make-or-break counter-offensive. They have a theory of victory. Do we?
The Ukraine war and European identity
With the war in Ukraine well into its second year, European politicians from across the political spectrum are still eager to show their support for the country. But a battle for the soul of Europe is brewing beneath the surface, and next year’s European Parliament elections could serve as its first battleground.
Trial and tribulation: The complex process of prosecuting war crimes in Kosovo
The Kosovo Specialist Chambers aims to bring justice to victims of war crimes committed during the Kosovo war. But so far, it is causing controversy and could complicate reconciliation efforts
The case for sending fighter jets to Ukraine
Ukraine needs fighter jets to counter Russia’s changing military approach. The US should learn from last year’s delay over tank deliveries and approve their release as soon as possible
How the West should prepare for the Turkish elections
The US and the EU should refrain from making any interventions during Turkey’s election period – but they may need to respond quickly depending on the results of the vote
A question of strategic credibility: How Europeans can fix the ammunition problem in Ukraine
Europeans need to take urgent steps to ensure a larger and more certain supply of ammunition to Ukraine – and thereby alter the military balance on the ground
The Zelensky-Lukashenka-Tsikhanouskaya triangle: Understanding Ukraine’s relationship with the Belarusian opposition
Despite their common goals, the Ukrainian authorities have shown little interest in cooperating with the Belarusian opposition. As an ally to both, the EU can facilitate their understanding and engagement
The insignificance of Putin’s latest nuclear bluster
Putin’s attention-seeking plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus underlines his commitment to nuclear risk manipulation – but his blackmail may be losing its potency
Escalating dependence: Russia’s nuclear plans for Belarus
Putin may be bluffing about the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. But if he follows through, the chance of a democratic transition for Belarus could all but vanish
Specials
Mapping China’s rise in the Western Balkans
China is building up its influence in the Western Balkans through projects focused on everything from energy and infrastructure to culture, education, and media. If the European Union is to achieve its geopolitical goals in the region, it will need to understand the nature of competition with Beijing in all these areas.
Russia in the grey zones
What role does Russia play in the breakaway regions of Eastern Europe?
Life in the grey zones: Reports from Europe’s breakaway regions
Locked in a shadowy life between war and peace, “grey zones” now litter the map of Eastern Europe
Minsk Monitor
Following high level ministerial meetings on Ukraine, ECFR's Wider Europe team report on the implementation the Minsk agreement
Podcasts
The case for sending fighter jets to Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Gustav Gressel to talk about sending fighter jets to Ukraine
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash, and Ivan Krastev discuss the main findings of ECFR’s latest opinion poll
Live from the Munich Security Conference: Where is world politics turning?
Mark Leonard reports live from the Munich Security Conference
How Putin created the most threatening regime in the world – with Michael Thumann
Mark Leonard invited Michael Thumann to talk about his new book “Revenge: How Putin created the most threatening regime in the world”
Agathe Demarais on sanctions as a foreign policy tool
Mark Leonard talks with Agathe Demarais about how sanctions work and how they can be truly effective
Davos world: Alexander Stubb and Mark Leonard live from the WEF
Mark Leonard and Alexander Stubb give us their take on this year’s World Economic Forum
The Clash of Orders with Fyodor Lukyanov on Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by Fyodor Lukyanov to learn more about the Russian perspective on global order
The Clash of Orders with Aslı Aydıntaşbaş on Turkey
Mark Leonard is joined by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş to talk about Turkey’s understanding of order
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
Events
14 Jun
Who controls the Russian military?
What are the political dynamics surrounding the Russian military? Exploring potential scenarios for Russia’s civil-military development and implications for NATO and Europe
29 Mar
Georgia’s fight for its future: Understanding recent protests in Tbilisi and the rift between the government and the wider population
Join the discussion on Georgia’s future in light of the recent protests, EU accession process and Russia’s influence in Tbilisi
28 Feb
Russia’s war against Ukraine one year on: Views from Central Europe
Russia’s devastating war against Ukraine on European soil has been raging for one year now. With tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives lost, the country is fighting…
31 Jan
Power audit of EU-Russia relations: How Europeans are learning to handle a new reality
Concluding that Russia poses a threat and that the EU let its dependencies grow too deep, the bloc so far attempted to decouple from Moscow. How should Europeans navigate the adversarial relationship in the future?
14 Dec
From surviving to thriving: How Europe should support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To brace for a “Long War”, Europe needs to be ready to take its lessons learned from more than half a year of the war to heart and deliver enduring support to Ukraine
8 Nov
The role of Germany in Europe in times of war: Potential for German-Bulgarian cooperation
We will discuss Germany’s role in Europe and will reflect on how the new European order is viewed in Berlin
7 Sep
A world safe for autocracy? Gideon Rachman in conversation with Jana Puglierin
In conversation with Jana Puglierin, Gideon Rachman will present his book “The Age of the Strongmen”
8 Jul
New paperback released – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict
Mark Leonard will launch his newly released paperback edition of his book – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict (Penguin) with a brand-new essay on the war in Ukraine and its implications for geopolitics
23 Jun
Il Circolo dell’ECFR: Pandemia e guerra in Ucraina. La visione dei cittadini europei
Lo European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) e Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo organizzano a Torino una nuova edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sulla visione dei cittadini europei su pandemia e guerra in Ucraina
22 Jun
The impact of the war in Ukraine on the international system
Conference on the war in Ukraine and its consequences on the international system
In the media
It’s perfectly fine for Scholz to make the attempt. While I don’t think this phone call will be fruitful, I don’t believe it can cause any harm either.
For the moment, the European Political Community is essentially a forum for discussion of major strategic issues
Marie Dumoulin was invited to RFI’s Carrefour de l’Europe podcast to discuss the European Political Community summit in Moldova
There is a need for this type of continent-wide forum, where heads of state can discuss the continent’s challenges without being constrained by their cohorts of civil servants
They appear to have targeted the southwest of Moscow, where the capital’s most affluent districts are located
The status quo in northern Kosovo has created a security vacuum, making violence predictable
