At July’s NATO summit in Ankara, European leaders accepted that they must carry more of their own defence. Turning that promise into money means winning a fight over the EU’s next seven-year budget, against coalitions that have defended farm and cohesion spending for decades
Jeremy Shapiro, with
Samuel Charap,
Bob Deen,
Hiski Haukkala,
Ivan Krastev,
Hanna Notte,
Jim O’Brien
Policy Brief
When the fighting in Ukraine stops, America and Europe will likely end up facing Russia in a low-grade rivalry for years to come. Here is how to prevent that disordered rivalry from sliding into another war
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska to discuss last week’s NATO summit and how Europe can prepare for a future in which American security guarantees are no longer assured
As Russia’s war against Ukraine continues, European governments are facing difficult questions about military support, diplomacy and the long-term security of the continent. How…
Russia is expanding its nuclear-capable, long-range weapon systems to press Europe and fracture NATO. Europeans need to plug the gaps in their nuclear capabilities and create a strategic deterrent that can function without US support
Rafael Loss, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, Jana Puglierin
Policy Brief
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of defence and deterrence
El pasado 11 de marzo de 2026, la oficina de Madrid del European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), en colaboración con el Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores, Unión Europea y Cooperación de España, organizó en…
Jeremy Shapiro, with
Samuel Charap,
Bob Deen,
Hiski Haukkala,
Ivan Krastev,
Hanna Notte,
Jim O’Brien
Policy Brief
When the fighting in Ukraine stops, America and Europe will likely end up facing Russia in a low-grade rivalry for years to come. Here is how to prevent that disordered rivalry from sliding into another war
Russia is expanding its nuclear-capable, long-range weapon systems to press Europe and fracture NATO. Europeans need to plug the gaps in their nuclear capabilities and create a strategic deterrent that can function without US support
Rafael Loss, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, Jana Puglierin
Policy Brief
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of defence and deterrence
The Arab Gulf states’ pursuits in Sudan keep fuelling violence. But their wealth and influence mean any lasting peace will necessarily hinge on their cooperation
Together with the Ukrainians, Europeans should begin—now—to draw up a “beyond the horizon” plan for Ukraine in readiness for a ceasefire or even a peace deal
Russia’s war on Ukraine has featured many of the technological advances the world has made over the past decades. If Europeans are serious about their defence capabilities, they need to learn from this use of emerging technology on both sides of the war
The EU should conclude a security compact with Ukraine. Such an agreement would help the country defend itself against Russia and maximise the effectiveness of European military support
At July’s NATO summit in Ankara, European leaders accepted that they must carry more of their own defence. Turning that promise into money means winning a fight over the EU’s next seven-year budget, against coalitions that have defended farm and cohesion spending for decades
The disagreement over the Franco-German-Spanish fighter aircraft system, FCAS, shows that when it comes to building a European defence industry, political will is not enough
Russia’s recent incursions into NATO airspace are the biggest escalation with the alliance since the cold war. With it, Putin likely hopes to achieve three main goals
On August 15th, the American and Russian presidents will meet in Alaska to discuss the future of Ukraine—without Ukrainians, or even Europeans, in the room. Quick results are unlikely, and in any case, Europeans still have the cards to shape them
The deadline is looming for Britain, France and Germany to decide whether to reimpose sanctions on Iran. They are right to consider an extension to this “snapback” mechanism—and China could play a crucial role in what comes next
As Israel and Hamas edge toward a ceasefire, shifts are under way in both: Hamas is quietly opening up to decommissioning and Israel’s security elite is realising military victory is a myth. European leaders have a rare chance to help shift the Gaza war from attrition to political resolution
The nuclear pact recently signed by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer reflects how an emerging post-liberal Europe is taking the form of a defence community. Britain can help shape the continent’s new security order, so long as it banishes the Brexit mindset
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska to discuss last week’s NATO summit and how Europe can prepare for a future in which American security guarantees are no longer assured
As Russia’s war against Ukraine continues, European governments are facing difficult questions about military support, diplomacy and the long-term security of the continent. How…
Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras to unpack a weekend of geopolitical developments and controversies on Europe’s defence and nuclear dependence on the US
Mark Leonard welcomes Nicu Popescu, an ECFR distinguished policy fellow leading our work on the European security initiative, to discuss America’s decision to pause aid shipments to Ukraine—and how European countries are trying to turn this around
Ahead of the Munich Security Conference, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin talk German defence and the future of the country’s armed forces. They review the…
Vessela Tcherneva welcomes Camille Grand, Camille Lons, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, and Jana Puglierin to discuss the 75th NATO summit, and how Europe can defend itself with less America
At the Munich Security Conference, Mark Leonard welcomes Arancha González Laya, Camille Grand and Jana Puglierin to understand how Europeans can prepare for a second Trump presidency
El pasado 29 de abril de 2026, la oficina de Madrid del European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), en colaboración con el Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores, Unión Europea y Cooperación de España, celebró en Madrid la segunda edición del diálogo político de alto nivel «Construir la seguridad europea: defensa, preparación y…
El pasado 11 de marzo de 2026, la oficina de Madrid del European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), en colaboración con el Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores, Unión Europea y Cooperación de España, organizó en…
Casa de América
Plaza de Cibeles, s/n, 28014 Madrid
·ECFR Madrid
América Latina con Ucrania en el cuarto aniversario de la invasión rusa. En el cuarto aniversario de la invasión rusa a gran escala de Ucrania, este debate público reflexionó sobre la situación en la que se encuentra el derecho internacional y la necesidad de defender un orden global basado en normas, no mediante la…
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump…
LUISS University, Viale Romania 32, 00197 Roma
·ECFR Rome
The event contributes to the wider Ukraine Recovery Conference by examining a critical dimension of Russia’s war against Ukraine: the economic infrastructure underlying the conflict and the maritime security challenges it creates for Europe. It aims to create space for discussion among key experts and stakeholders on policy options to address Russian economic…
Days before a high-stakes NATO summit, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) hosts to a timely webinar on European public attitudes towards Europe’s defence, the first turbulent months of President Trump’s new term, and the capacity of Europe to respond to a changing transatlantic reality. This webinar will launch our brand-new public…
Saal des Polnischen Instituts, Europa-Haus Leipzig, Markt 10, 04109 Leipzig
·ECFR Berlin
Der Zerfall der Sowjetunion im Jahr 1991 nährte die Hoffnung auf eine friedlichere europäische Ordnung. Doch diese Hoffnung erwies sich als trügerisch. Unter Wladimir Putin erlebt Russlands Großmachtanspruch eine gefährliche Renaissance, genährt von dem Wunsch, eine Einflusssphäre in Russlands Nachbarschaft wiederherzustellen. Die vom Kreml propagierte Idee einer “russischen Welt”, die russischsprachige Bevölkerungen im…
The much-anticipated EU-UK summit on 19 May, expected to include a defense pact, will be an important step in the reset between London and Brussels, with the conflict in Ukraine having been a powerful vehicule for a rapprochment. At the same time, the UK is desperate to maintain its ‘special relationship’ with the US, to also…
OnlineCentro Studi Americani, Via Michelangelo Caetani, 32, 00186 Roma RM
·ECFR Rome
Questa edizione del Transatlantic Forum ha visto il contributo di voci dal mondo accademico, dei think tank e del settore strategico, per discutere delle tensioni tra Stati Uniti e Cina, dalla competizione tecnologica all’evoluzione delle minacce ibride, dal cyberspazio alle infrastrutture critiche. Al centro del dibattito anche il ruolo dell’Europa tra interdipendenza e autonomia…