Russia, Ukraine, and the two Koreas: How east Asian powers are influencing Europe’s security
Europeans should work to understand the threats from the North Korea-Russia relationship – and deepen their security partnership with South Korea
Asia
Forget the bear hug: India’s gradual turn from Russia, towards the West
India remains concerned with China above all. Western partners such as the US and the EU are much more useful to New Delhi than is Moscow
In the same boat: Why Taiwan is strengthening ties with central and eastern Europe
Based on the idea that Russia’s and China’s increasingly aggressive foreign policies are interrelated, Taipei is strengthening ties with central and eastern Europe
Ahead of the curve: Why the EU and US risk falling behind China in Latin America
As Beijing’s investment approach to Latin America focuses on industries of strategic importance, the EU and US will need to contend with growing Chinese competition
Rebooting EU-India relations: How to unlock post-election potential
Ties between Brussels and New Delhi have long struggled to reach their potential. After their respective elections, shared geopolitical concerns about China and common goals on topics from technology to economic security can provide a chance for a reboot
Risk and reward: Why the EU should develop the Middle Corridor trade route
The EU’s plans to upgrade the Middle Corridor trade route may boost Russian and Chinese connectivity with central Asia. But for Europeans, the long-term economic and strategic benefits of going ahead with the development far outweigh these risks
Forget about Trump: Why Europeans should start worrying about trade tensions with emerging economies
India’s tough stance at the World Trade Organisation’s ministerial conference in Abu Dhabi illustrates emerging economies’ rising resentment towards EU trade policies
Aiding competition: The geopolitics of humanitarian aid and disaster relief in the Indo-Pacific
Disaster relief efforts in the Indo-Pacific are quickly becoming a space for geopolitical competition, especially between the US and China. Europeans should watch closely, working to showcase their own usefulness to the region while helping to reduce its dependencies on China
Sunset of the economists
Two decades ago, China’s reformist economists walked the halls of power and dictated policy. Now, they have been sidelined in favour of a new priority: national security. What happened?
Security recall: The risk of Chinese electric vehicles in Europe
The security challenge posed by Chinese electric vehicles is in many ways greater – and trickier to solve – than that of 5G networks. With such cars entering the European market at growing speed, policymakers need to move swiftly
Publications
The idea of China
China’s ideas could become the country’s next big export. The Idea of China examines Chinese thinking about global order, AI, demographic change, and more – and considers how these ideas could influence the world
Trust and trade-offs: How to manage Europe’s green technology dependence on China
European policymakers need to answer the ‘trust question’ of how far they want Chinese companies involved in green industries such as solar energy, batteries, and electric vehicles
East meets middle: China’s blossoming relationship with Saudi Arabia and the UAE
China is strengthening its ties to the Gulf in areas well beyond the energy sector. The EU clearly has stakes in the region, but it should not try to directly counter China’s influence. It should instead build its own Gulf partnerships
Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of middle powers
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
The battle for the Indian Ocean: How the EU and India can strengthen maritime security
China is becoming increasingly assertive in the Indian Ocean. The EU and India should work together to support the smaller states of the region
China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
A question of balance: India and Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Europeans have found India’s position on the Ukraine war frustrating. But, although it is dependent on Russia for its arms, and has huge worries about China, India is actually moving inexorably closer to the West
Circuit breakers: Securing Europe’s green energy supply chains
Europeans risk over-dependence on China for the green technologies needed to build the low-carbon economy of the future. They should take steps to reduce their exposure – while recognising they will have to work with Chinese suppliers in some instances
Let a thousand contacts bloom: How China competes for influence in Bulgaria
China is expanding its presence in Bulgaria through a strategy of engagement with state and non-state actors. This has concerning implications in areas such as technology transfer, critical infrastructure, and public procurement
What Europeans think about the US-China Cold War
A majority of European citizens believe a new cold war with both China and Russia is under way – but they mostly do not think that their own country is involved
Articles
Russia, Ukraine, and the two Koreas: How east Asian powers are influencing Europe’s security
Europeans should work to understand the threats from the North Korea-Russia relationship – and deepen their security partnership with South Korea
Forget the bear hug: India’s gradual turn from Russia, towards the West
India remains concerned with China above all. Western partners such as the US and the EU are much more useful to New Delhi than is Moscow
In the same boat: Why Taiwan is strengthening ties with central and eastern Europe
Based on the idea that Russia’s and China’s increasingly aggressive foreign policies are interrelated, Taipei is strengthening ties with central and eastern Europe
Ahead of the curve: Why the EU and US risk falling behind China in Latin America
As Beijing’s investment approach to Latin America focuses on industries of strategic importance, the EU and US will need to contend with growing Chinese competition
Rebooting EU-India relations: How to unlock post-election potential
Ties between Brussels and New Delhi have long struggled to reach their potential. After their respective elections, shared geopolitical concerns about China and common goals on topics from technology to economic security can provide a chance for a reboot
Risk and reward: Why the EU should develop the Middle Corridor trade route
The EU’s plans to upgrade the Middle Corridor trade route may boost Russian and Chinese connectivity with central Asia. But for Europeans, the long-term economic and strategic benefits of going ahead with the development far outweigh these risks
Forget about Trump: Why Europeans should start worrying about trade tensions with emerging economies
India’s tough stance at the World Trade Organisation’s ministerial conference in Abu Dhabi illustrates emerging economies’ rising resentment towards EU trade policies
Aiding competition: The geopolitics of humanitarian aid and disaster relief in the Indo-Pacific
Disaster relief efforts in the Indo-Pacific are quickly becoming a space for geopolitical competition, especially between the US and China. Europeans should watch closely, working to showcase their own usefulness to the region while helping to reduce its dependencies on China
Sunset of the economists
Two decades ago, China’s reformist economists walked the halls of power and dictated policy. Now, they have been sidelined in favour of a new priority: national security. What happened?
Security recall: The risk of Chinese electric vehicles in Europe
The security challenge posed by Chinese electric vehicles is in many ways greater – and trickier to solve – than that of 5G networks. With such cars entering the European market at growing speed, policymakers need to move swiftly
Specials
Mapping China’s rise in the Western Balkans
China is building up its influence in the Western Balkans through projects focused on everything from energy and infrastructure to culture, education, and media. If the European Union is to achieve its geopolitical goals in the region, it will need to understand the nature of competition with Beijing in all these areas
Moving closer: European views of the Indo-Pacific
It will take more than just strong support from France, Germany, and the Netherlands to ensure that the new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific is effective in the long term
What does India think?
Indians are many, as are their demands, aspirations, and ideas
Podcasts
The world after the West: Lynn Kuok on south-east Asia
South-east Asia is a culturally and geographically diverse region, notable for its proximity and economic ties to China. Though the political structure of the region’s…
The world after the West: Rana Mitter on China
In recent years, China has overtaken the United States as the largest trading partner of the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Not only has…
China’s new ideas: People, power, progress
Mark Leonard welcomes Alicja Bachulska and Janka Oertel to discuss their latest book, “The Idea of China.”
The world after the West: Pramit Pal Chaudhuri on India
Mark Leonard welcomes to Pramit Pal Chaudhuri to discuss India as a middle power
The Great Firewall: How China regulates big tech
Mark Leonard welcomes Angela Zhang to discuss China’s Big Tech regulation
In:Sight China with Angela Zhang
Mark Leonard welcomes Angela Zhang to discuss China’s big tech regulation
The sweet spot: Between de-risking from China and Europe’s green future
Mark Leonard welcomes Robbie Diamond and Janka Oertel to discuss de-risking and the future of Europe’s green industries
High stakes in the strait: US -China competition and Taiwan’s future
Mark Leonard welcomes Dmitri Alperovitch to discuss US-China competition and the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
The end of Germany’s China illusion with Janka Oertel
Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel to discuss her new book “End of the China illusion” and the West’s biggest misconceptions about China
In:Sight China with Duan Jiuzhou
Mark Leonard welcomes Duan Jiuzhou to talk about China’s role in the MENA region
Events
1 Oct
Lessons from Ukraine: Mapping out EU sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict
Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and Western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose…
24 Sep
EU sanctions for a conflict around Taiwan: What’s Europe’s leverage against China?
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential…
17 Jul
Transizione energetica, tecnologia e geopolitica: quali scenari strategici per Europa & Italia?
La sfida tecnologica posta dalla transizione energetica è un fattore dirimente di competizione tra gli attori internazionali, con implicazioni critiche sul futuro assetto geoeconomico globale, come reso evidente dalle tensioni nelle relazioni commerciali tra Stati Uniti, Cina e Unione Europea. Allo stesso tempo, la proiezione esterna degli attori internazionali e lo sforzo di costruzione di nuove partnership e collaborazioni sono meccanismi essenziali per lo sviluppo di catene del valore resilienti
20 Jun
How to Manage Europe’s Green Technology Dependence on China: A Black Coffee Morning
As the global landscape shifts towards strategic rivalry between China and the advanced industrial economies of the West, Europe finds itself at a crossroads, needing…
12 Jun
Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico
La discussione “Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico”, organizzata dall’ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) ed ELEC – European League for Economic Cooperation, avrà luogo, in forma virtuale, mercoledì 12 giugno 2024 dalle ore 16:30 alle ore 18:00 sulla piattaforma Zoom
28 May
Connessioni infinite: Italia, Europa e progetto IMEC
L’IMEC è un progetto a lungo termine che richiede investimenti considerevoli e presenta notevoli ostacoli interni ed esterni. Ma il potenziale del corridoio di rafforzare i legami tra potenze diverse potrebbe rivelarsi prezioso in questo mondo frammentato e turbolento, con benefici geopolitici e geoeconomici per Europa ed i suoi partner
23 May
Il circolo dell’ECFR – Corridoio IMEC: prospettive per Italia ed UE
Il tema di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sarà focalizzato sulle prospettive del corridoio IMEC come ponte economico tra Oriente ed Occidente
8 May
Rome Foreign Policy Club, Terza Edizione – Road to November 2024: prospettive e scenari globali delle elezioni americane
Nella sua edizione 2024, il Rome Foreign Policy Club riunisce giovani ricercatori italiani under 40 per costruire ipotesi di scenario che possano supportare la definizione di policy da parte del Ministero per gli Affari Esteri e la Cooperazione Internazionale. L’evento più significativo per l’anno in corso è indubbiamente rappresentato dalle elezioni americane di novembre il cui esito avrà enormi implicazioni su due aspetti cruciali del contesto internazionale: i rapporti con Cina e Sud Globale e le relazioni con Mosca alla luce del conflitto in Ucraina
2 May
Breaking the Debt Deadlock in Africa: the IMF’s Balancing Act with China
The economic shock after COVID-19 plunged many African economies into debt trouble. Yet, four years later, the current system for restructuring debts – the G20 Common…
24 Apr
Europe’s de-risking plans: between ambitions and reality
Quarto appuntamento di una serie di working lunch realizzati congiuntamente da ECFR Roma, SDA Bocconi e l’Institute for European Policymaking @ Bocconi University
In the media
Some countries may oppose anti-subsidy duties pointing to recent data showing a decline in Chinese electric vehicle sales in the EU over the past year
The vote serves as a litmus test of whether Brussels’ proposed rules-based solutions to strengthen Europe’s negotiating position with China will be undermined
Janka Oertel argues that EU member states should vote in favour of imposing definitive trade tariffs on China-made electric vehicles
While there are indeed powerful dynamics pushing India and Europe closer together, divergences remain present and there is no guarantee that such a trend would continue automatically on its own
Who controls these data flows and software updates is a far from trivial question, the answers to which encroach on matters of national security, cybersecurity, and individual privacy
Janka Oertel on a potential ban of Chinese and Russian software and hardware in autonomous vehicles in the US