Cold comfort: What China can teach Europe about adaptation
Europe is learning to adapt to a hotter climate. It should take the same approach to economic dependencies: manage the consequences, but also change the conditions that created them
Asia
Trump in Beijing: Why the game stays the same for Europe
Donald Trump is in Beijing, but Europeans should not expect decisive guidance or a grand bargain with Xi Jinping. They should instead focus on managing their own exposure to Chinese risks
Power couple: How South Korea fits in Europe’s battery strategy
Europe’s battery dependence on China is clear, but closing the gap alone will be difficult. Partnering with South Korea, the world’s second-largest manufacturer, offers a faster and more realistic route
Chinamaxxing: Beijing’s new source of soft power
China is trending on Western social media. While rooted in disillusionment with America, the trend is making it far easier for Beijing to build soft power among Europe’s youth
Laying the groundwork: Why EU-Japan industrial relations should begin at the bilateral level
Europe and Japan seek deeper defence-industrial cooperation; but the fragmented EU system is creating challenges. As a first step, Tokyo should establish stronger bilateral partnerships, particularly with Germany and Poland
Beefing up partnerships: How the EU and Australia can give their trade deal strategic heft
The EU has concluded its third major trade deal of 2026. Its agreement with Australia reflects both sides’ desire for new partners amid Trumpian chaos and Chinese coercion. But now this partnership should go further
Funding war, courting crisis: Why China’s support for Russia requires a European response
Russia is backing China’s claims to Taiwan in return for economic and trade support. Europeans need to understand the real cost of Beijing-Moscow cooperation
Hedging the hegemon: Why Europe and South Korea need each other in the Trump era
South Koreans still regard America as an ally, but frictions in their relationship could resurface at any point. The EU and South Korea should use 2026 to deepen their own defence and economic security ties, thereby strengthening their collective resilience
Merz in Beijing: A chance to flip China’s “stability” narrative
Merz’s trip is less a bilateral tour than a signal setting moment: his words and stance will influence whether Europe pivots to a more assertive China strategy or lets Beijing lock in a costly status quo
The fast and the forward: Takaichi landslide will unleash a bolder Japan
Sanae Takaichi’s supermajority victory will speed up Japan’s assertive policies on defence and economic security. For Europe, this makes Japan a more predictable partner—but it also adds pressure to match Tokyo’s new pace
Publications
The art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms
The EU can exploit its system to say no to China—now, and long into the future
EV endgame: Stalling China’s export surge in Europe’s southern neighbourhood
Chinese electric vehicle brands are adapting to Western trade barriers by increasing their presence in the Middle East and North Africa. Europe’s response must go beyond merely closing the loopholes
Borrowed mouths and laundered messages: China’s influence playbook in Europe
Chinese foreign manipulation and interference are rising in Europe. Five techniques feature in Beijing’s playbook, communicating messages about China’s place in the world and support for Russian positions.
Don’t look down: How Europeans can escape China’s clean-tech gravity
China’s manufacturing surge and trade tactics are dampening Europe’s clean-tech goals. Europeans need to forge coalitions across wary member states to secure their energy independence
The Taiwan test: Why Europe should help deter China
China’s military capabilities are growing and its actions in Europe are becoming more disruptive. The EU should support Taiwan with dual-use technologies and defence cooperation to send a clear signal to Beijing
Eyes wide shut: How to read China’s playbook in the Western Balkans
The global order no longer favours Western dominance, and Europe’s peripheries have become battlegrounds for competing powers. Yet, the EU’s enlargement policy has not kept pace with this new geopolitical reality
Great changes unseen: The China-Russia nexus and European security
Europeans must recalibrate their China policy—to recognise the country’s role effectively supporting Russia in its war on Ukraine
Pivot to Europe: India’s back-up plan in Trump’s world
Tensions with Trump will prompt India to seek rapprochement with Beijing, but the underlying competitive dynamics in China-India relations are unlikely to change. Against this backdrop, Europe offers a promising alternative to balance risks
Last gasp: Securing Europe’s wind industry from dependence on China
Europe’s pioneering wind turbine manufacturers are grappling with Chinese competition at home and abroad—but it is not too late to save them
Electric shock: The Chinese threat to Europe’s industrial heartland
The industrial heartland of Germany and central Europe is at risk from the second “China shock”. Here is how decision-makers can save industry and avert social and political strife
Articles
Cold comfort: What China can teach Europe about adaptation
Europe is learning to adapt to a hotter climate. It should take the same approach to economic dependencies: manage the consequences, but also change the conditions that created them
Trump in Beijing: Why the game stays the same for Europe
Donald Trump is in Beijing, but Europeans should not expect decisive guidance or a grand bargain with Xi Jinping. They should instead focus on managing their own exposure to Chinese risks
Power couple: How South Korea fits in Europe’s battery strategy
Europe’s battery dependence on China is clear, but closing the gap alone will be difficult. Partnering with South Korea, the world’s second-largest manufacturer, offers a faster and more realistic route
Chinamaxxing: Beijing’s new source of soft power
China is trending on Western social media. While rooted in disillusionment with America, the trend is making it far easier for Beijing to build soft power among Europe’s youth
Laying the groundwork: Why EU-Japan industrial relations should begin at the bilateral level
Europe and Japan seek deeper defence-industrial cooperation; but the fragmented EU system is creating challenges. As a first step, Tokyo should establish stronger bilateral partnerships, particularly with Germany and Poland
Beefing up partnerships: How the EU and Australia can give their trade deal strategic heft
The EU has concluded its third major trade deal of 2026. Its agreement with Australia reflects both sides’ desire for new partners amid Trumpian chaos and Chinese coercion. But now this partnership should go further
Funding war, courting crisis: Why China’s support for Russia requires a European response
Russia is backing China’s claims to Taiwan in return for economic and trade support. Europeans need to understand the real cost of Beijing-Moscow cooperation
Hedging the hegemon: Why Europe and South Korea need each other in the Trump era
South Koreans still regard America as an ally, but frictions in their relationship could resurface at any point. The EU and South Korea should use 2026 to deepen their own defence and economic security ties, thereby strengthening their collective resilience
Merz in Beijing: A chance to flip China’s “stability” narrative
Merz’s trip is less a bilateral tour than a signal setting moment: his words and stance will influence whether Europe pivots to a more assertive China strategy or lets Beijing lock in a costly status quo
The fast and the forward: Takaichi landslide will unleash a bolder Japan
Sanae Takaichi’s supermajority victory will speed up Japan’s assertive policies on defence and economic security. For Europe, this makes Japan a more predictable partner—but it also adds pressure to match Tokyo’s new pace
Specials
Mapping China’s rise in the Western Balkans
China is building up its influence in the Western Balkans through projects focused on everything from energy and infrastructure to culture, education, and media. If the European Union is to achieve its geopolitical goals in the region, it will need to understand the nature of competition with Beijing in all these areas
Moving closer: European views of the Indo-Pacific
It will take more than just strong support from France, Germany, and the Netherlands to ensure that the new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific is effective in the long term
What does India think?
Indians are many, as are their demands, aspirations, and ideas
Podcasts
Germany’s second China shock
Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel and Andrew Small to discuss how China’s industrial rise is shaking Germany—and Europe’s—economic foundations
Latin America’s new imaginaries
Mark Leonard welcomes Adriana Abdenur and Jorge Castañeda to discuss how China is reshaping the political imagination of Latin America
Defining modernity in South-East Asia
Mark Leonard welcomes LuHan Gabel, Ooi Kee Beng and Chelsea Nguyen to explore how younger generations in China, Malaysia and Vietnam are rethinking the meaning of modernity in a post-Western world
The China-native generation
Mark Leonard welcomes Loubna El Amine and Cobus van Staden to explore how younger generations in Africa and the Middle East are shaping perceptions of China, the West and the future
The China challenge
Mark Leonard welcomes Mike Kuiken and Randy Schriver to examine the evolving US-China relationship and what it means for Europe
India in a world of chaos
Mark Leonard welcomes Raja Mohan to discuss India’s changing geopolitical ties in a world characterised by change
The EU-India mega-deal
Mark Leonard welcomes James Crabtree to unpack the landmark EU-India trade deal
Made in China: How Europe can tackle economic coercion
Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke and Andrew Small to discuss how Europeans can combat varieties of Chinese economic coercion
China’s technological dominance
Mark Leonard welcomes Dan Wang to explore China’s evolving technological dominance and how its rivalry with the US and Europe will look in the future
Hedging diplomacy: New Delhi’s foreign policy in Trump’s world
Mark Leonard welcomes James Crabtree and Suhasini Haidar to explore India’s foreign policy and its emerging relations with Europe
Events
17
Sep
European Power
Brewed in China 2035: How can Europe compete in the next industrial race?
China is already the undisputed champion of traditional manufacturing. But China’s leadership wants more: it aspires to lead in the next generation of production by 2035 – and biomanufacturing has emerged as a priority for China’s economic security, resilience and strategic autonomy. Europe has seen this movie before. As with solar panels or…
3
Jun
Asia
2026 Republic of Korea (ROK)–G7 cooperation forum
The G7 and its close partners, particularly the Republic of Korea (ROK), face a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape marked by growing economic competition, technological fragmentation, and mounting security challenges. From supply chain vulnerabilities to shifting alliances and rising geopolitical tensions, these developments are testing the resilience of existing frameworks for international cooperation
21
May
European Power
Briefing Online “From vulnerability to leverage: Europe’s defenses against Chinese economic coercion”
L’Ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) ha organizzato un briefing online dal titolo “From vulnerability to leverage: Europe’s defenses against Chinese economic coercion”, che si è tenuto il 21 maggio 2026 dalle ore 17:00 alle 18:00. Alla base del confronto c’era il policy brief “Beijing hold’em: European cards against Chinese…
12
Mar
Discussion on China and the US
While the war with Iran continues to escalate, Donald Trump is still set to visit China with which the stakes extend from tariffs and intensifying geopolitical rivalry. Under its latest 5-year plan, Beijing is doubling down on a centralised, export-dominated system that will intensify competition with both the US and Europe. Trump and Xi…
29
Jan
Asia
Don’t Look Down: How Europeans can Escape China’s Clean-tech gravity
Don’t look down draws on analysis from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, and Poland to examine national-level debates over the tension between accelerating Europe’s clean energy transition and reducing reliance on Chinese clean-tech supply chains. The paper maps how domestic politics and economic exposure to China shape national positions on this dilemma, and what this implies…
10
Dec
Asia
Energy Transition and EU Enlargement in the Western Balkans: Future Directions under China’s Growing Influence
This week at the European Parliament, the Sofia office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, together with the office of Radan Kanev, Member of the European Parliament from the EPP Group, convened a policy discussion on the role of the energy transition in advancing the Western Balkan countries’ path toward full EU…
9
Dec
Asia
Implications for the UK of Europe’s approach to China and economic security
China now poses a deindustrialisation-level shock to Europe’s economic future. The external impact of Chinese overcapacity, involution, and Beijing’s technological leadership and supply-chain dominance in critical future technologies is presenting an existential threat to Europe’s industrial base. The EU is weighing new measures in response, including stricter investment screening, European preference in procurement, a…
28
Nov
Europe’s Last Chance? What we should do about Trump, China, Ukraine and other challenges of a transactional world
Europe today finds itself facing unprecedented global challenges and surrounded by transactional powers. Donald Trump is poised to redefine the global role of the US – revisiting alliances, challenging NATO, and treating security and trade alike as bargaining chips. China is pressing its advantage in technology, infrastructure, and diplomacy, asking Europeans to choose between principles…
26
Nov
Asia
European China Conference 2025: Navigating relations amid geopolitical turbulences
This event will again bring together a diverse group of high-level policymakers and experts from all over Europe to discuss responses to the challenges posed by China’s economic, technology, foreign and security policies. In 2025, these discussions take place at a moment of unprecedented stress and uncertainty. With China and the US locked in…
Asia
India after Trump: America’s Turn, China’s Challenge, and Europe’s Opportunity
Donald Trump’s renewed attacks on India have prompted New Delhi to reassess its diplomatic strategy, leading to greater hedging and an emphasis on “multi-alignment.” While tensions with Washington may push India toward limited fence-mending with Beijing, the underlying competitive dynamics of China-India relations remain unchanged. At the same time, Russia’s strategic value is in…
In the media
Alberto Rizzi on European solidarity from Ceuta to China trade disputes
