Sanae Takaichi’s supermajority victory will speed up Japan’s assertive policies on defence and economic security. For Europe, this makes Japan a more predictable partner—but it also adds pressure to match Tokyo’s new pace
China is shifting its economic strategies towards micro-integration and market diversification, which pose a more subtle danger to Europe’s industrial heartlands
The EU must take concrete steps to support African ambitions to move exporting or processing raw materials and become a maker of clean technologies
Like-minded countries are starting to protect themselves from US unpredictability and Chinese dominance by forging new coalitions. This will only work if they limit their solo deals with Beijing
The new EU-India free trade agreement could become a template for 21st-century trade governance
China’s maritime grey-zone activities threaten Taiwan’s and Europe’s security. Europeans need to work with Indo-Pacific partners to expose and counter China’s evolving tactics
Japan and China are heading towards a new, albeit contained, rivalry. To mitigate the economic and security impacts of further Chinese coercion, the EU needs to coordinate its response with Indo-Pacific partners
According to Chinese academics, economists and retired military officers, the country’s leaders are not losing any sleep over Donald Trump’s America First agenda. In fact, as they see it, the US president is ushering in a world that Chinese strategists have long been preparing for
Donald Trump has already met Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, in Tokyo. As the two move closer on defence and economic security, the EU must reflect on the credibility of its own alliance
European carmakers are falling behind Chinese makers of electric vehicles. Yet watered-down climate targets will not help European cars compete with China; a different approach is needed
China’s manufacturing surge and trade tactics are dampening Europe’s clean-tech goals. Europeans need to forge coalitions across wary member states to secure their energy independence
China’s military capabilities are growing and its actions in Europe are becoming more disruptive. The EU should support Taiwan with dual-use technologies and defence cooperation to send a clear signal to Beijing
The global order no longer favours Western dominance, and Europe’s peripheries have become battlegrounds for competing powers. Yet, the EU’s enlargement policy has not kept pace with this new geopolitical reality
Europeans must recalibrate their China policy—to recognise the country’s role effectively supporting Russia in its war on Ukraine
Tensions with Trump will prompt India to seek rapprochement with Beijing, but the underlying competitive dynamics in China-India relations are unlikely to change. Against this backdrop, Europe offers a promising alternative to balance risks
Europe’s pioneering wind turbine manufacturers are grappling with Chinese competition at home and abroad—but it is not too late to save them
The industrial heartland of Germany and central Europe is at risk from the second “China shock”. Here is how decision-makers can save industry and avert social and political strife
Beijing’s economic policies are threatening European competitiveness and economic security at a time when Europe cannot afford to be vulnerable. Poland can use its growing leadership role in the EU to help guide the bloc’s response
China’s ideas could become the country’s next big export. The Idea of China examines Chinese thinking about global order, AI, demographic change, and more – and considers how these ideas could influence the world
European policymakers need to answer the ‘trust question’ of how far they want Chinese companies involved in green industries such as solar energy, batteries, and electric vehicles
Sanae Takaichi’s supermajority victory will speed up Japan’s assertive policies on defence and economic security. For Europe, this makes Japan a more predictable partner—but it also adds pressure to match Tokyo’s new pace
China is shifting its economic strategies towards micro-integration and market diversification, which pose a more subtle danger to Europe’s industrial heartlands
The EU must take concrete steps to support African ambitions to move exporting or processing raw materials and become a maker of clean technologies
Like-minded countries are starting to protect themselves from US unpredictability and Chinese dominance by forging new coalitions. This will only work if they limit their solo deals with Beijing
The new EU-India free trade agreement could become a template for 21st-century trade governance
China’s maritime grey-zone activities threaten Taiwan’s and Europe’s security. Europeans need to work with Indo-Pacific partners to expose and counter China’s evolving tactics
Japan and China are heading towards a new, albeit contained, rivalry. To mitigate the economic and security impacts of further Chinese coercion, the EU needs to coordinate its response with Indo-Pacific partners
According to Chinese academics, economists and retired military officers, the country’s leaders are not losing any sleep over Donald Trump’s America First agenda. In fact, as they see it, the US president is ushering in a world that Chinese strategists have long been preparing for
Donald Trump has already met Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, in Tokyo. As the two move closer on defence and economic security, the EU must reflect on the credibility of its own alliance
European carmakers are falling behind Chinese makers of electric vehicles. Yet watered-down climate targets will not help European cars compete with China; a different approach is needed
China is building up its influence in the Western Balkans through projects focused on everything from energy and infrastructure to culture, education, and media. If the European Union is to achieve its geopolitical goals in the region, it will need to understand the nature of competition with Beijing in all these areas
It will take more than just strong support from France, Germany, and the Netherlands to ensure that the new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific is effective in the long term
Indians are many, as are their demands, aspirations, and ideas
Mark Leonard welcomes James Crabtree to unpack the landmark EU-India trade deal
Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke and Andrew Small to discuss how Europeans can combat varieties of Chinese economic coercion
Mark Leonard welcomes Dan Wang to explore China’s evolving technological dominance and how its rivalry with the US and Europe will look in the future
Mark Leonard welcomes James Crabtree and Suhasini Haidar to explore India’s foreign policy and its emerging relations with Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel to unpack the US-China trade de-escalation and its implications for Europe
In this week’s emergency podcast episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Andrew Small to discuss the recent escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to examine the diverse perspectives on US-China relations and how Europe can navigate this changing geopolitical landscape
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand and Janka Oertel to unpack Taiwan’s strategic calculus amid rising global tensions, and Europe’s role in the Indo-Pacific
Mark Leonard welcomes Rudra Chowdhury, James Crabtree and Janka Oertel to unpack Europe’s relations with Asia in the age of Donald Trump
Germany’s industrial model thrived for years thanks to soaring Chinese demand. But the relationship has recently become more contentious. This week, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana…
Don’t look down draws on analysis from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, and Poland to examine national-level debates over the tension between accelerating Europe’s clean energy transition and reducing reliance on Chinese clean-tech supply chains. The paper maps how domestic politics and economic exposure to China shape national positions on this dilemma, and what this implies for…
This week at the European Parliament, the Sofia office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, together with the office of Radan Kanev, Member of the European Parliament from the EPP Group, convened a policy discussion on the role of the energy transition in advancing the Western Balkan countries’ path toward full EU membership
China now poses a deindustrialisation-level shock to Europe’s economic future. The external impact of Chinese overcapacity, involution, and Beijing’s technological leadership and supply-chain dominance in critical future technologies is presenting an existential threat to Europe’s industrial base. The EU is weighing new measures in response, including stricter investment screening, European preference in procurement, a new…
Europe today finds itself facing unprecedented global challenges and surrounded by transactional powers. Donald Trump is poised to redefine the global role of the US – revisiting alliances, challenging NATO, and treating security and trade alike as bargaining chips. China is pressing its advantage in technology, infrastructure, and diplomacy, asking Europeans to choose between principles and…
This event will again bring together a diverse group of high-level policymakers and experts from all over Europe to discuss responses to the challenges posed by China’s economic, technology, foreign and security policies. In 2025, these discussions take place at a moment of unprecedented stress and uncertainty. With China and the US locked in a…
Donald Trump’s renewed attacks on India have prompted New Delhi to reassess its diplomatic strategy, leading to greater hedging and an emphasis on “multi-alignment.” While tensions with Washington may push India toward limited fence-mending with Beijing, the underlying competitive dynamics of China-India relations remain unchanged. At the same time, Russia’s strategic value is in decline,…
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are engaged in a high-stakes game of chicken in the emerging trade war. With more than 150% tariffs on Chinese goods and a reciprocal response from Beijing on US imports, economic relations between the two sides have essentially come to a halt. Lack of clarity around the US endgame creates…
Questa edizione del Transatlantic Forum vedrà il contributo di voci dal mondo accademico, dei think tank e del settore strategico, per discutere delle tensioni tra Stati Uniti e Cina, dalla competizione tecnologica all’evoluzione delle minacce ibride, dal cyberspazio alle infrastrutture critiche. Al centro del dibattito anche il ruolo dell’Europa tra interdipendenza e autonomia strategica, e…
Si tratta del sesto appuntamento di una serie di working lunch realizzati congiuntamente da ECFR Roma, SDA Bocconi e l’Institute for European Policymaking @ Bocconi University. L’arrivo di Donald Trump e la svolta protezionistica degli Stati Uniti costringe Unione europea e Cina a ridefinire i loro rapporti. L’approccio aggressivo sul commercio dell’amministrazione americana può favorire…
With increased US-China competition likely to shape Trump’s second term, significant attention in Washington is focused on the primacists, prioritisers and restrainers vying to shape the incoming administration’s China policy. But this focus on the US often neglects the perspectives and debates within China itself. To help us understand these internal discussions, Mark Leonard and Alicja Bachulska…
Arturo Varvelli on Trump’s policies and their effects on perceptions of China as a stable trade partner
Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp on the diplomatic conflict between China and Japan surrounding Taiwan
