Disintegrated deterrence: What Trump’s National Defense Strategy means for Europe
Donald Trump has rolled out America’s stark new National Defense Strategy. Europeans need to be prepared to take control of their own defence future
NATO
Five steps to stop Greenland’s annexation destroying the EU
The US president is hell-bent on owning Greenland. Annexation could destroy not only NATO but the EU, if European leaders do not resolutely act
Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
European Power
Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump raising…
Showstoppers: How to fix Europe’s military immobility and improve deterrence
Europeans are focused on improving their military readiness—but deterrence also depends on moving forces fast. EU infrastructure plans must prepare Europe’s land, sea and air routes for commerce and conflict
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO
America’s gradual retreat from European security under the current Trump administration is reshaping NATO’s centre of gravity. To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to spend more—they need to learn to lead
Drones over Denmark: Russia tests NATO’s defences
Mark Leonard and Ulrike Franke discuss what Russia’s probing of European airspace means for the continent’s security
European Power
Is Russia Winning or Collapsing? The State of Country and its Society
Despite unprecedented Western sanctions, Russia’s economy has shown surprising resilience, though recent data suggests this war-fueled growth may be reaching its limits—a crucial factor since analysts have long identified the economy as key to Russia’s ability to sustain its military campaign. Simultaneously, we’re witnessing escalating Russian hybrid activities against Western nations, from drone incursions into…
Hold the line: NATO cannot allow airspace violations to go unchallenged
The NATO response to Russia’s latest violation of Poland airspace shows what collective defence can achieve and is the kind of resolute action the new threat environment demands
Air of superiority: What the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine can teach Europeans about NATO readiness
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are different in a multitude of important ways. But they nonetheless offer some common lessons for Europeans on the importance of air superiority to military victory
Publications
Preventing the next war: A European plan for Ukraine
Together with the Ukrainians, Europeans should begin—now—to draw up a “beyond the horizon” plan for Ukraine in readiness for a ceasefire or even a peace deal
Bridging the Bosphorus: How Europe and Turkey can turn tiffs into tactics in the Black Sea
After years of bickering, Europe and Turkey need each other more than ever. A security partnership in the Black Sea could be the first step toward a pragmatic, if uneasy, alliance to contain Russia
Articles
Disintegrated deterrence: What Trump’s National Defense Strategy means for Europe
Donald Trump has rolled out America’s stark new National Defense Strategy. Europeans need to be prepared to take control of their own defence future
Five steps to stop Greenland’s annexation destroying the EU
The US president is hell-bent on owning Greenland. Annexation could destroy not only NATO but the EU, if European leaders do not resolutely act
Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
Showstoppers: How to fix Europe’s military immobility and improve deterrence
Europeans are focused on improving their military readiness—but deterrence also depends on moving forces fast. EU infrastructure plans must prepare Europe’s land, sea and air routes for commerce and conflict
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO
America’s gradual retreat from European security under the current Trump administration is reshaping NATO’s centre of gravity. To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to spend more—they need to learn to lead
Hold the line: NATO cannot allow airspace violations to go unchallenged
The NATO response to Russia’s latest violation of Poland airspace shows what collective defence can achieve and is the kind of resolute action the new threat environment demands
Air of superiority: What the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine can teach Europeans about NATO readiness
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are different in a multitude of important ways. But they nonetheless offer some common lessons for Europeans on the importance of air superiority to military victory
Too much, too fast: Europe’s defence-spending tsunami is coming
This week’s NATO summit sees defence spending at the top of the agenda. But, at the current estimation, Europe risks rearming at an unsustainable pace. This could waste resources and trigger political instability without delivering real security for European citizens
Small change, big difference: How the NATO summit can still support Ukraine
NATO members should designate their support for Ukraine as a contribution towards achieving 5% of domestic spending on defence
From reliance to dependence: The risks of “NATO first”
Britain’s strategic defence review overlooks the dangers of banking on America for its security
Podcasts
Drones over Denmark: Russia tests NATO’s defences
Mark Leonard and Ulrike Franke discuss what Russia’s probing of European airspace means for the continent’s security
NATO summit 2025: How Europe can secure its future
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand, former NATO assistant secretary general and ECFR distinguished policy fellow, for a 15-minute Emergency Room episode…
The Norwegian way: Why Oslo talks to everyone
Mark Leonard welcomes Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik to discuss Norway’s distinct approach to diplomacy and international engagement
NATO’s Vilnius summit: The highlights and the future challenges
Mark Leonard is joined by Alex Stubb, Lykke Friis, and Camille Grand, to discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit in Vilnius.
The NATO Summit and the future of European Defence
Mark Leonard is joined by Nick Witney, Jana Puglierin, and Tara Varma, to evaluate the outcomes of the NATO Summit in Madrid, especially regarding European defence
New era, new alliance: NATO, Sweden, and Finland
What can Sweden and Finland offer NATO? And are they worried about the Kremlin’s threats to attack their countries?
Events
European Power
Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump raising…
European Power
Is Russia Winning or Collapsing? The State of Country and its Society
Despite unprecedented Western sanctions, Russia’s economy has shown surprising resilience, though recent data suggests this war-fueled growth may be reaching its limits—a crucial factor since analysts have long identified the economy as key to Russia’s ability to sustain its military campaign. Simultaneously, we’re witnessing escalating Russian hybrid activities against Western nations, from drone incursions into…
18
Jun
United States
The New Age of American Foreign Policy
The NATO summit on 24-26 June 2025 is likely to be a flashpoint in the transatlantic relationship and another example of how the US, under President Trump 2.0, has changed the way it exerts power. From sweeping and volatile tariffs, a reduced military engagement in Europe, to an alliance with the most powerful US tech companies, the panel will try and decipher the long-term impact of the new US ways to conduct foreign policy
United States
Dormant NATO: Future Prospects and Challenges
Russia’s war against Ukraine has shown how much the Europeans are still dependent on the US to ensure their security, despite all the talk of “strategic autonomy”. Even though Europeans have significantly increased their defence spending over the past two years, there is still a massive transatlantic imbalance in NATO. The potential re-election of Donald…
27
Jun
European Security
75 anni di NATO e Italia: stato dell’arte e sfide future
In occasione del 75esimo anniversario della NATO, la conferenza farà il punto sia sulla NATO nel contesto attuale e futuro, sia soprattutto sul ruolo dell’Italia nell’alleanza atlantica e il rapporto tra quest’ultima e gli interessi nazionali
9
Apr
Ukrainian Victory. How to bring sustainable peace back to Europe
The event, organised by the Embassy of Ukraine in Rome and the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in Rome in cooperation with the Italian Federation for Human Rights (FIDU) and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) will discuss the current situation in Ukraine in a closed-door roundtable, with the participation of visiting Ukrainian experts
1
Feb
European Power
New year, new Europe: Defence strategy, capabilities and technology
In NATO’s 75th anniversary year, ahead of a new EU institutional cycle in late 2024, we are delighted to present New year, new Europe: Defence strategy, capabilities and technology, the inaugural event of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ new defence initiative
European Power
Uninterrupted support: What Ukraine needs from the EU in the Long War
Ahead of the European Council in December where accession talks with Ukraine are expected to be opened, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is delighted to welcome Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister, Olha Stefanishyna, to discuss what Ukraine needs from Europe in the Long War. Europeans now face conflicts on multiple fronts in their…
25
Sep
Not one inch eastwards?: A Black Coffee Morning with Mary Sarotte
Since the start of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, the history of NATO’s eastward expansion has once again been the subject of controversy in Germany. On the occasion of the release of “Nicht einen Schritt weiter nach Osten“, the German edition of her acclaimed book “Not one Inch. America, Russia and the Making…
European Security
Who controls the Russian military?
What are the political dynamics surrounding the Russian military? Exploring potential scenarios for Russia’s civil-military development and implications for NATO and Europe
In the media
Timothy Garton Ash on the EU’s altered view of the transatlantic relationship and the necessity for new internationalism
Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash and Ivan Krastev on Trump making China great again and the EU’s altered view of the transatlantic relationship
Ivan Krastev on the current perception of NATO in Europe and its future in the Trump era
Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash and Ivan Krastev on the polling results showing a shift in the EU’s view of America as an ally