At July’s NATO summit in Ankara, European leaders accepted that they must carry more of their own defence. Turning that promise into money means winning a fight over the EU’s next seven-year budget, against coalitions that have defended farm and cohesion spending for decades
Drone warfare in Europe is no longer tomorrow’s problem. The continent is under attack by drones today, and the threat is not isolated in the east
AI-powered command systems are becoming the backbone of modern warfare. NATO needs shared standards, but if those rest on American software, interoperability will come at the price of dependence
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska to discuss last week’s NATO summit and how Europe can prepare for a future in which American security guarantees are no longer assured
Some European leaders seem to think that abasing themselves for Donald Trump’s pleasure is necessary to save NATO and keep the Western alliance alive. But by so desperately clinging to the good old days of the transatlantic relationship, Europe’s leaders are risking more than just their dignity
A nuclear deterrent does not preclude major war. Putin has learnt this lesson—now Europe needs to do the same
Putin has long wanted to extract concessions from NATO. The three factors deterring Russia from an attack—a war in Ukraine, military capacity, and NATO strength—are under unprecedented strain
Donald Trump has rolled out America’s stark new National Defense Strategy. Europeans need to be prepared to take control of their own defence future
The US president is hell-bent on owning Greenland. Annexation could destroy not only NATO but the EU, if European leaders do not resolutely act
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
Drone warfare in Europe is no longer tomorrow’s problem. The continent is under attack by drones today, and the threat is not isolated in the east
Together with the Ukrainians, Europeans should begin—now—to draw up a “beyond the horizon” plan for Ukraine in readiness for a ceasefire or even a peace deal
After years of bickering, Europe and Turkey need each other more than ever. A security partnership in the Black Sea could be the first step toward a pragmatic, if uneasy, alliance to contain Russia
At July’s NATO summit in Ankara, European leaders accepted that they must carry more of their own defence. Turning that promise into money means winning a fight over the EU’s next seven-year budget, against coalitions that have defended farm and cohesion spending for decades
AI-powered command systems are becoming the backbone of modern warfare. NATO needs shared standards, but if those rest on American software, interoperability will come at the price of dependence
Some European leaders seem to think that abasing themselves for Donald Trump’s pleasure is necessary to save NATO and keep the Western alliance alive. But by so desperately clinging to the good old days of the transatlantic relationship, Europe’s leaders are risking more than just their dignity
A nuclear deterrent does not preclude major war. Putin has learnt this lesson—now Europe needs to do the same
Putin has long wanted to extract concessions from NATO. The three factors deterring Russia from an attack—a war in Ukraine, military capacity, and NATO strength—are under unprecedented strain
Donald Trump has rolled out America’s stark new National Defense Strategy. Europeans need to be prepared to take control of their own defence future
The US president is hell-bent on owning Greenland. Annexation could destroy not only NATO but the EU, if European leaders do not resolutely act
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
Europeans are focused on improving their military readiness—but deterrence also depends on moving forces fast. EU infrastructure plans must prepare Europe’s land, sea and air routes for commerce and conflict
America’s gradual retreat from European security under the current Trump administration is reshaping NATO’s centre of gravity. To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to spend more—they need to learn to lead
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska to discuss last week’s NATO summit and how Europe can prepare for a future in which American security guarantees are no longer assured
Mark Leonard and Ulrike Franke discuss what Russia’s probing of European airspace means for the continent’s security
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand, former NATO assistant secretary general and ECFR distinguished policy fellow, for a 15-minute Emergency Room…
Mark Leonard welcomes Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik to discuss Norway’s distinct approach to diplomacy and international engagement
Mark Leonard is joined by Alex Stubb, Lykke Friis, and Camille Grand, to discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit in Vilnius.
Mark Leonard is joined by Nick Witney, Jana Puglierin, and Tara Varma, to evaluate the outcomes of the NATO Summit in Madrid, especially regarding European defence
What can Sweden and Finland offer NATO? And are they worried about the Kremlin’s threats to attack their countries?
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump…
Despite unprecedented Western sanctions, Russia’s economy has shown surprising resilience, though recent data suggests this war-fueled growth may be reaching its limits—a crucial factor since analysts have long identified the economy as key to Russia’s ability to sustain its military campaign. Simultaneously, we’re witnessing escalating Russian hybrid activities against Western nations, from drone incursions…
The NATO summit on 24-26 June 2025 is likely to be a flashpoint in the transatlantic relationship and another example of how the US, under President Trump 2.0, has changed the way it exerts power. From sweeping and volatile tariffs, a reduced military engagement in Europe, to an alliance with the most powerful US tech companies, the panel will try and decipher the long-term impact of the new US ways to conduct foreign policy
Russia’s war against Ukraine has shown how much the Europeans are still dependent on the US to ensure their security, despite all the talk of “strategic autonomy”. Even though Europeans have significantly increased their defence spending over the past two years, there is still a massive transatlantic imbalance in NATO. The potential re-election of…
In occasione del 75esimo anniversario della NATO, la conferenza farà il punto sia sulla NATO nel contesto attuale e futuro, sia soprattutto sul ruolo dell’Italia nell’alleanza atlantica e il rapporto tra quest’ultima e gli interessi nazionali
The event, organised by the Embassy of Ukraine in Rome and the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in Rome in cooperation with the Italian Federation for Human Rights (FIDU) and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) will discuss the current situation in Ukraine in a closed-door roundtable, with the participation of visiting Ukrainian experts
In NATO’s 75th anniversary year, ahead of a new EU institutional cycle in late 2024, we are delighted to present New year, new Europe: Defence strategy, capabilities and technology, the inaugural event of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ new defence initiative
Ahead of the European Council in December where accession talks with Ukraine are expected to be opened, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is delighted to welcome Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister, Olha Stefanishyna, to discuss what Ukraine needs from Europe in the Long War. Europeans now face conflicts on multiple fronts…
Since the start of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, the history of NATO’s eastward expansion has once again been the subject of controversy in Germany. On the occasion of the release of “Nicht einen Schritt weiter nach Osten“, the German edition of her acclaimed book “Not one Inch. America, Russia and the…
What are the political dynamics surrounding the Russian military? Exploring potential scenarios for Russia’s civil-military development and implications for NATO and Europe
