Bankless task: can Europe stay connected to Iran?
Despite the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the reimposition of economic sanctions, Europe remains committed to maintaining ties with Iran
Experts & Staff
Ellie Geranmayeh
Deputy Director, Middle East and North Africa programme
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Europe-Iran relations; Iran nuclear deal and associated sanctions policy; Iranian foreign and domestic policy; Iran-Saudi relations
Languages
English, Persian
Biography
Ellie Geranmayeh is a senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She focuses on European policy in relation to Iran, particularly on the nuclear and regional dossiers and sanctions policy.
Geranmayeh worked extensively on the diplomatic track that led to the 2015 nuclear deal and continues to brief senior policymakers on how to effectively contain Iran’s nuclear activities. Her research also covers wider regional dynamics including de-escalation efforts between the GCC states and Iran, and geopolitical trends in the Middle East as a consequence of increasing tensions between global powers.
She is regularly quoted by international media outlets including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, and appears on CNN, Al-Jazeera and the BBC to provide commentary on developments in the Middle East.
Iran: The case for protecting humanitarian trade
New US sanctions will put the health of ordinary Iranians at risk. Europe can take concrete steps to minimise this – steps which also support its ongoing commitment to the nuclear deal
Trump’s Iran sanctions: an explainer on their impact for Europe
ECFR presents the first in a mini-series on the likely impact of US sanctions on economic ties between Europe and Iran
Syria’s fate: What will Rouhani, Erdogan, and Putin decide?
Views on priorities and possible outcomes of the upcoming meeting of the leaders of Iran, Turkey, and Russia from our Iranian and Turkish fellows
Three years later: Europe’s last push on the Iran nuclear deal
This July marks the third anniversary of the JCPOA, but it may also be its last. Europe must now redouble its efforts to save the Iran nuclear deal.
Humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen: What can Europe do?
Mark Leonard speaks with Adam Baron, Ellie Geranmayeh and Julien Barnes-Dacey about Yemen caught in the midst of a regional conflict between Iran and Saudi…
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
US nuclear deal withdrawal: What happens now?
Mark Leonard speaks with Iran expert Ellie Geranmayeh about what might happen after Donald Trump has decided to withdraw US support from the deal. The…
After Trump’s Iran decision: Time for Europe to step up
Six steps for the EU and its member states to save the nuclear agreement with Iran
Europe’s balancing act on the nuclear deal: wooing Trump without losing Iran
European leaders have been assiduous in lobbying Washington on the nuclear deal. But Europe must step up its diplomacy to ensure it does not lose Tehran in the process
Publications
Pieces in motion: Rebalancing power in a new Levantine order
How Europe can use the current moment of flux in the Middle East to help stabilise Iraq, Lebanon and Syria
Alone together: How the war in Ukraine shapes the Russian-Iranian relationship
The war in Ukraine has led to unprecedented levels of cooperation between Russia and Iran. This new relationship poses a significant threat to European countries, whose governments should seek to mitigate the potential damage
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Reviving the revolutionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics
Europeans wish to persuade Iran to compromise on strategic issues – but, unless they understand the dynamics of domestic Iranian politics, they will not get far
Meeting the challenge of secondary sanctions
The EU and its member states should strengthen their sanctions policy and begin to build up their deterrence and resilience against secondary sanctions
The coming clash: Why Iran will divide Europe from the United States
Europe must salvage the nuclear deal with Iran and step-up robust diplomacy with Teran on regional issues
After ISIS: How to Win the Peace in Iraq and Libya
Recent terror attacks in Berlin, Baghdad and Istanbul demonstrate that defeating ISIS militarily is only half the battle
The new power couple: Russia and Iran in the Middle East
Joint military operations in Syria have brought Russia and Iran relations closer than at any point since World War II
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2016
The sixth ECFR Foreign Policy Scorecard highlights the EU’s diminishing ability to influence its neighbours, and the neighbourhood’s growing impact on the EU
Engaging with Iran: A European agenda
Iran deal should be a catalyst to end decade-long stand off with Tehran and lead to engagement on regional security
Articles
Dangerous manoeuvres: How Israel and Iran are preparing for Trump 2.0
As Donald Trump prepares for his second US presidency, Iranian and Israeli military manoeuvring during President Biden’s lame-duck period risks drawing the US into all-out war in the Middle East
Managed reform: What Iran’s new president means for European diplomacy
Under new president Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran will have a reform-minded government. Given the grave concern over Iran’s nuclear programme and regional posture, the West should seize the opportunity to pursue principled diplomacy with Tehran
Arbitrary detention: The US-Iranian prisoner swap as a catalyst for a new approach
The Biden administration has secured the release of five US citizens from unjust detention in Iran. European countries should now coordinate with the US to tackle the use of arbitrary detention as diplomatic leverage in Iran and beyond
Quran desecration: How Europeans can ease tensions with Muslim-majority nations
Quran desecration in Sweden and Denmark has drawn the ire of Muslim-majority countries. European governments should act now to prevent an escalation of tensions
The shoots of stability: What the Saudi-Iran deal means for the Middle East and Europe
Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to begin the process of normalising their relations. Europeans should consider how to help entrench the stabilising gains of the agreement – even as they navigate difficulties with Iran
Generation no: The Iranian uprising and how the West should respond
Young people in Iran have led mass protests after the death of a woman in police custody. The West should stand in solidarity with the protesters while keeping the diplomatic route open to constrain Iran’s nuclear programme
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
The SCO is often seen as the anti-NATO, but Putin will struggle to convince the other members – especially the Central Asian states – that his war is more important than Chinese investment
Bide and seek: The dangers of US support for a Gulf-Israeli defence pact
Military alignment between Israel and Gulf Arab states risks heightened conflict in the Middle East – without weakening Iran’s geopolitical position or nuclear programme
Borrell in Tehran: How to overcome three obstacles to the Iran nuclear deal
The collapse of the Iran nuclear deal could lead to military escalation and further turmoil in the global energy market. Europe can only address these threats through diplomacy with Iran and the US
Iran, the US, and the nuclear deal: Biden’s chance to remove Trump’s poison pill
Tehran and Washington are close to a deal – but both sides need to give and take to achieve the wider benefits of a renewed Joint Comprehensive plan of Action (JCPOA)
Specials
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Podcasts
Nuclear diplomacy: Trump, Iran and a potential new deal
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, Mohsen Milani and Nathalie Tocci to unpack the latest developments in US-Iran diplomacy
Live from the Doha Forum: The Middle East after Assad
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Vali Nasr to discuss shifting dynamics in the Middle East and their implications for global geopolitics
Saudi Arabia and Trump: What’s next for the Middle East
Ellie Geranmayeh welcomes Dr. Manal Radwan to talk about the impact of Donald Trump’s election for the wars in the Middle East
Regional war in the Middle East: Anatomy of a conflict one year after 7 October
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Hugh Lovatt to discuss the regional war in the Middle East one year on from the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel
Understanding the multipolar Middle East
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh and Alistair Burt to understand the new multipolar order in the Middle East
A Year on from the Mahsa Amini Protests: Where Iran is headed and the Implications for Western Policy
Ellie Geranmayeh speaks to Tara Sepehri Far, Sussan Tahmasebi, and Sanam Vakil about the situation in Iran a year after the Mahsa Amini Protests
The geo-economic effect of the Iran-GCC thaw
Ellie Geranmayeh speaks to Nadereh Chamlou and Sheikha Najla Al Qassimi about the geo-economic trends in the Middle East
After the dust settles: what does the Saudi-Iran deal mean for the Middle East?
The first episode of ECFR’s WOMENP mini-series brings together leading experts to discuss what can be expected from Iran and Saudi Arabia’s de-escalation after the…
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
Can the Iran nuclear deal be saved?
Mark Leonard, Ellie Geranmayeh, Hossein Mousavian, Vali Nasr, and Ali Vaez discuss the latest developments in the negotiations around the Iran nuclear deal and evaluate different possible outcomes and their consequences
Events
19 Jun
After October 7 and after Raisi: Where next for Iranian foreign policy and the Western response?
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
27 Oct
Iran’s “Generation No” protests: what lies ahead?
This Twitter Space will discuss important lessons from the ongoing protests in Iran and their implications for the country’s future
9 Mar
Ending the Yemen conflict: Voices of local peace-builders
This event will consider how women peace-builders in Yemen are providing essential gender-responsive humanitarian and peacemaking support
In the media
In her op-ed, Ellie Geranmayeh sets out how the Trump administration and Iran can pave the way for an improved and long-lasting nuclear deal
Ellie Geranmayeh on Iran’s monetary incentive towards Trump in nuclear deal talks
Ellie Geranmayeh on the dangers ahead after Trump threatens to bomb Iran and how diplomacy can be used to avert this
Ellie Geranmayeh on why a potential Russian mediation between Trump and Iran is unlikely to work
Unless there is progress by early summer, the Europeans will be free to consider snapback
Ellie Geranmayeh on diplomatic encounters between Iranian officials and Europeans