Experts & Staff
Ellie Geranmayeh
Deputy Director, Middle East and North Africa programme
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Europe-Iran relations; Iran nuclear deal and associated sanctions policy; Iranian foreign and domestic policy; Iran-Saudi relations
Languages
English, Persian
Biography
Ellie Geranmayeh is a senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She focuses on European policy in relation to Iran, particularly on the nuclear and regional dossiers and sanctions policy.
Geranmayeh worked extensively on the diplomatic track that led to the 2015 nuclear deal and continues to brief senior policymakers on how to effectively contain Iran’s nuclear activities. Her research also covers wider regional dynamics including de-escalation efforts between the GCC states and Iran, and geopolitical trends in the Middle East as a consequence of increasing tensions between global powers.
She is regularly quoted by international media outlets including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, and appears on CNN, Al-Jazeera and the BBC to provide commentary on developments in the Middle East.
America’s latest wave of Iran sanctions
The US has re-imposed its sanctions on Iran; the final part of our sanctions mini-series explains how the US will implement them
Europe’s Iran dilemma
On Sunday, November 4, far-reaching sanctions will be re-imposed on Iran and its oil sector. The European Union is trying to preserve a version of the deal, but the recent incidents in Denmark and France have heightened the tensions.
Bankless task: can Europe stay connected to Iran?
Despite the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the reimposition of economic sanctions, Europe remains committed to maintaining ties with Iran
Iran: The case for protecting humanitarian trade
New US sanctions will put the health of ordinary Iranians at risk. Europe can take concrete steps to minimise this – steps which also support its ongoing commitment to the nuclear deal
Trump’s Iran sanctions: an explainer on their impact for Europe
ECFR presents the first in a mini-series on the likely impact of US sanctions on economic ties between Europe and Iran
Syria’s fate: What will Rouhani, Erdogan, and Putin decide?
Views on priorities and possible outcomes of the upcoming meeting of the leaders of Iran, Turkey, and Russia from our Iranian and Turkish fellows
Three years later: Europe’s last push on the Iran nuclear deal
This July marks the third anniversary of the JCPOA, but it may also be its last. Europe must now redouble its efforts to save the Iran nuclear deal.
Humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen: What can Europe do?
Mark Leonard speaks with Adam Baron, Ellie Geranmayeh and Julien Barnes-Dacey about Yemen caught in the midst of a regional conflict between Iran and Saudi…
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Publications
Pieces in motion: Rebalancing power in a new Levantine order
How Europe can use the current moment of flux in the Middle East to help stabilise Iraq, Lebanon and Syria
Alone together: How the war in Ukraine shapes the Russian-Iranian relationship
The war in Ukraine has led to unprecedented levels of cooperation between Russia and Iran. This new relationship poses a significant threat to European countries, whose governments should seek to mitigate the potential damage
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Reviving the revolutionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics
Europeans wish to persuade Iran to compromise on strategic issues – but, unless they understand the dynamics of domestic Iranian politics, they will not get far
Meeting the challenge of secondary sanctions
The EU and its member states should strengthen their sanctions policy and begin to build up their deterrence and resilience against secondary sanctions
The coming clash: Why Iran will divide Europe from the United States
Europe must salvage the nuclear deal with Iran and step-up robust diplomacy with Teran on regional issues
After ISIS: How to Win the Peace in Iraq and Libya
Recent terror attacks in Berlin, Baghdad and Istanbul demonstrate that defeating ISIS militarily is only half the battle
The new power couple: Russia and Iran in the Middle East
Joint military operations in Syria have brought Russia and Iran relations closer than at any point since World War II
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2016
The sixth ECFR Foreign Policy Scorecard highlights the EU’s diminishing ability to influence its neighbours, and the neighbourhood’s growing impact on the EU
Engaging with Iran: A European agenda
Iran deal should be a catalyst to end decade-long stand off with Tehran and lead to engagement on regional security
Articles
Hormuz hold’em: How to stop the US-Iran crisis in the strait
If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire
Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran
Too many Europeans are quietly aligning with America and Israel’s war against Iran. Instead, they urgently need to pursue difficult diplomacy to halt a spiralling conflict that is significantly undermining European security and economic interests
A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran
US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no side will achieve an easy victory
Trump’s strikes on Iran are an illegal war of choice—and Europeans should say so
As the conflict threatens to escalate, European governments must make an assertive case for diplomacy and prepare for humanitarian catastrophe
Traps and limits: Why Trump bombing Iran won’t deliver what he wants
The US is locked in a cat-and-mouse game of escalation with Iran. Europeans should work with partners in the Middle East to restrain Trump’s military attacks, prevent broader war and pursue measures to protect against the fates that befell Libya and Syria
How Europe can help Iranians break the internet shutdown
Tehran has used a communications blackout to suppress nationwide protests and control information flows. French and UK governments can use their own satellite terminals to provide Iranians with independent internet access
The risks of the draw: Europe’s post-snapback move on Iran
European leaders have reimposed UN sanctions on Iran. Now they must steer clear of America’s maximum pressure campaign and instead keep the diplomatic door open
Qatar quake: Israel blows another hole in Middle East security
The Doha strike risks deepening regional scepticism of Western security partnerships in the Middle East. Europe needs to do much more to pressure Israel into ending the war in Gaza and curbing its regional belligerence
Snap out of it: Europe, Iran and nuclear negotiations
The deadline is looming for Britain, France and Germany to decide whether to reimpose sanctions on Iran. They are right to consider an extension to this “snapback” mechanism—and China could play a crucial role in what comes next
Enough is enough: Europe needs to oppose Israel’s aggression
Israel has become the Middle East’s leading destabiliser, threatening key European interests. Europe must avoid making the same mistakes that led to the 2003 Iraq invasion, prioritise diplomacy and urge the US not to get entangled in a war with Iran
Specials
Iran nuclear monitor: Month by month
America and Israel have bombed Iran since 2025 to block Tehran’s path to nuclear weapons. ECFR’s interactive dashboard, updated monthly, assesses current evidence about Iran’s nuclear activities to determine which of six possible scenarios is most likely
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Podcasts
Iran nuclear monitor: Month by month
Mark Leonard, Kelsey Davenport and Ellie Geranmayeh introduce ECFR’s Iran nuclear monitor, and discuss the key risks and scenarios associated with Iran’s current nuclear capacity
War in the Middle East
Mark Leonard welcomes Aziz Alghashian, Eran Etzion and Ellie Geranmayeh to discuss the implications of a prolonged war in the Middle East and possible ceasefire scenarios
Trump strikes Iran
Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, Jeremy Shapiro, and Cinzia Bianco to discuss the escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure
Trump’s Iran choice: Regional takes
In this episode of ECFR’s WOMENP podcast, Ellie Geranmayeh welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, associate senior policy follow at ECFR, Dina Esfandiary, Middle East geoeconomics lead…
Will Trump bomb Iran?
Mark Leonard and Ellie Geranmayeh discuss the ongoing protests in Iran and the chance of US intervention
After Doha: What’s next for the Arab world?
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh and Hugh Lovatt, fresh from the Doha Forum, to unravel the geopolitical changes and diplomatic efforts shaping Middle Eastern politics
One year after Assad: Syria’s struggle for security, recovery and reform
Ellie Geranmayeh speaks with Syrian minister Hind Kabawat about the country’s turbulent first year after Assad, the challenges ahead, and her push to bring more women into leadership during Syria’s reconstruction
What to expect from the conflict between Israel and Iran
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh and Eran Etzion to unpack the latest developments in the conflict between Iran and Israel
Israel attacks Iran: Europe’s role in stopping a dangerous regional war
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh to unpack Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran and the risk of regional escalation
Regional response: How Gulf monarchies leveraged Trump’s visit
Ellie Geranmayeh welcomes Dina Esfandiary, Yasmine Farouk and Dania Thafer to unpack how Arab Gulf monarchies used Donald Trump’s recent visit to showcase their geopolitical strength
Events
Middle East and North Africa
After October 7 and after Raisi: Where next for Iranian foreign policy and the Western response?
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
27
Oct
Middle East and North Africa
Iran’s “Generation No” protests: what lies ahead?
This Twitter Space will discuss important lessons from the ongoing protests in Iran and their implications for the country’s future
Middle East and North Africa
Ending the Yemen conflict: Voices of local peace-builders
This event will consider how women peace-builders in Yemen are providing essential gender-responsive humanitarian and peacemaking support
In the media
Ellie Geranmayeh on Europe’s role in peace talks over Iran
Ellie Geranmayeh on the Iranian regime’s narrative around the war
Ellie Geranmayeh on the consequences of airstrikes for the Iranians’ support for the war
Ellie Geranmayeh, author of Iran Nuclear Monitor, on Iran’s improved geopolitical position in the region
Ellie Geranmayeh on the new ECFR dashboard “The Iran Nuclear Monitor”