Shifting Goalposts to Kill Diplomacy with Iran
When it comes to Iran, diplomacy is the difficult and less travelled path
Experts & Staff
Ellie Geranmayeh
Deputy Director, Middle East and North Africa programme
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Europe-Iran relations; Iran nuclear deal and associated sanctions policy; Iranian foreign and domestic policy; Iran-Saudi relations
Languages
English, Persian
Biography
Ellie Geranmayeh is a senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She specializes in European foreign policy in relation to Iran, particularly on the nuclear and regional dossiers and sanctions policy.
Geranmayeh advised European governments and companies on the nuclear negotiations between Iran and world powers from 2013-2015 and continues to brief senior policy makers on how to effectively safeguard the implementation of the nuclear agreement. Her research focus also covers wider regional dynamics including post-ISIS stabilisation and geopolitical trends in the Middle East.
She is regularly quoted by international media outlets including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, the Guardian, and appears on CNN, Al-Jazeera and the BBC to provide commentary on regional developments. Prior to joining ECFR, Geranmayeh worked at Herbert Smith Freehills law firm. She graduated in Law from the University of Cambridge.
ECFR highlights: Solution Fishing in the Yemen
The resignations of Yemeni president, Prime Minister and the country's cabinet has thrown Yemen's political transition into chaos. Adam Baron, ECFR Visiting Fellow, Abubakr…
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2015
The fifth edition of ECFR's Foreign Policy Scorecard examines EU's response to a year of crisis
Iran in the regional order: a truce or continued confrontation?
Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR Senior Policy Fellow, discuss the thinking among policy makers in…
The Islamic State through the regional lens
Essay collection on the regional dimensions of the IS crisis
Encouraging regional ownership of the fight against the Islamic State
The West needs to push regional actors to assume their responsibilities in confronting the threat posed by IS
After the Paris Massacre: Behind the violence
What’s missing from the debate across Europe is any real analysis of the root causes driving outbursts of violence like we’ve seen in Paris
Iran nuclear talks extension: Not ideal, but not defeat
Although the timing of the extension exposes the diplomatic process to unwanted risks, there is still hope for resolving Iran's nuclear deal
Prospects for the Iranian nuclear talks
While the new potential role of Russia boosts the chances of a final nuclear deal with Iran, gaps over sanctions relief continue to place doubts over whether this month's deadline can be met
Iran’s strategy against the Islamic State
Iran’s strategy for combatting the Islamic State has entailed a broad political and firm security response channelled through the governments in Damascus and Baghdad and local Shia groups
Publications
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Reviving the revolutionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics
Europeans wish to persuade Iran to compromise on strategic issues – but, unless they understand the dynamics of domestic Iranian politics, they will not get far
Meeting the challenge of secondary sanctions
The EU and its member states should strengthen their sanctions policy and begin to build up their deterrence and resilience against secondary sanctions
The coming clash: Why Iran will divide Europe from the United States
Europe must salvage the nuclear deal with Iran and step-up robust diplomacy with Teran on regional issues
After ISIS: How to Win the Peace in Iraq and Libya
Recent terror attacks in Berlin, Baghdad and Istanbul demonstrate that defeating ISIS militarily is only half the battle
The new power couple: Russia and Iran in the Middle East
Joint military operations in Syria have brought Russia and Iran relations closer than at any point since World War II
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2016
The sixth ECFR Foreign Policy Scorecard highlights the EU's diminishing ability to influence its neighbours, and the neighbourhood's growing impact on the EU
Engaging with Iran: A European agenda
Iran deal should be a catalyst to end decade-long stand off with Tehran and lead to engagement on regional security
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2015
The fifth edition of ECFR's Foreign Policy Scorecard examines EU's response to a year of crisis
The Islamic State through the regional lens
Essay collection on the regional dimensions of the IS crisis
Articles
The narrow path to agreement: How Europe should support the Iran nuclear deal
If European governments want to salvage the deal before it is too late, while also opening up the prospect of negotiations with Iran on regional security, they need to quickly and clearly reject the argument that the two issues should be bundled together
Course correction in US-Iranian relations: A road map for the Biden administration
Joe Biden has vowed to re-enter the Iran nuclear deal. In a recent report for Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Ellie Geranmayeh looks at what concrete steps can be taken by the United States, Iran, and Europe to bring all parties to the nuclear deal back into full compliance, noting that time is of the essence.
How a Biden win could transform US policy in the Middle East and North Africa
Victory for Joe Biden is likely to bring three big policy shifts in the region, opening new possibilities and challenges for Europeans
Do not expect a rush of arms sales to Iran
A broad range of political and financial problems are likely to prevent Iran from importing advanced weapons systems in the coming years
Europe can preserve the Iran nuclear deal until November
After a humiliating defeat at the UN Security Council, Washington will seek snapback sanctions to sabotage what is left of the nuclear deal. Britain, France, and Germany can still keep it alive until after the US election.
A pragmatic partnership: Why China and Iran try to collaborate
Iran’s rumoured talks with China on a partnership agreement could have significant economic benefits and provide it with valuable geopolitical bargaining chips
How Europe can avert a clash over the Iran arms embargo
France, Germany, and the United Kingdom will have to decide whether to support the US cause to extend the UN embargo or oppose it. But neither option is ideal.
How Europe can help Iran fight covid-19
European governments and the EU should press the US to strengthen the humanitarian exemptions in its Iran sanctions
Infected: The impact of the coronavirus on the Middle East and north Africa
The coronavirus has hit the Middle East and north Africa at a time when the region is already burdened with multiple problems, including a series…
Iraq, Iran, and the spectre of US sanctions
European governments must seek to dissuade the US from using Iraq as a new battlefield in its struggle with Iran.
Specials
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Video
Video: The Middle East’s new battlelines
ECFR’s New Battlelines Project maps Iran’s coalition of allies, regional influence and the counter-coalition that has formed to oppose them
Podcasts
How the US could return to the Iran nuclear deal
To what extent can and will Iran policy be a priority of the incoming administration? What can Europeans do to bolster transatlantic diplomacy on Iran?
Feeling the Westlessness at the Munich Security Conference 2020
The annual Munich Security Conference was themed “Westlessness”, defining “a widespread feeling of uneasiness and restlessness in the face of increasing uncertainty about the enduring purpose…
War and pieces: Political divides in southern Yemen
Lunch discussion to mark the launch of ECFR's newest paper “War and pieces: Political divides in southern Yemen“. International attention to the Yemeni conflict has shifted…
Iran-US: Preventing a Collision Course
ECFR, in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation (FES), invited to a discussion on “Iran-US: Preventing a Collision Course” on 21 January. Following a series of…
De “facto declaration of war”? – Soleimani’s killing as turning point in the Middle East
With the US-killing of the Iranian military leader, Qassem Soleimani, the Middle East has been yet again sent in the heart to geopolitical uncertainty and…
Iran: Calculating the cost of US sanctions
Over a year into the Trump administration's “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, the re-imposition of sanctions have not only placed in jeopardy the Iran nuclear…
Yemen – Seizing the moment of oppurtunity?
Recording of the Lunch Discussion analysing Yemen's role in the current Gulf crisis and how recent regional developments will have an impact on the UN-coordinated…
Iran & the US escalation game – What Europe can do?
In this episode, live from Brussels, Ellie Geranmayeh is standing in for our host Mark Leonard to discuss Iran’s further withdrawal from the 2015 Nuclear…
Meddling or Bargaining? – Emmanuel Macron’s Iran Initiative
This week, ECFR director Mark Leonard discusses with experts Ellie Geranmayeh and Julien Barnes-Dacey the French president Emmanuel Macron's bold initiative: Europeans are now to…
Meeting the Challenge of Secondary Sanctions
The second episode of ECFR’s summer series on strategic sovereignty explores the critical challenge that secondary sanctions pose for Europe, due to the Trump administration’s…
In the media
Ellie Geranmayeh commenting on Western leaders planning to table a motion at the IAEA next week condemning Iran for pulling out of the overarching agreement with the UN body giving inspectors access to its nuclear sites.
Ellie Geranmayeh comments on the US engagement with Iran.
Ellie Geranmayeh comments on how the E3 are pressing the US to re-start engagement with Iran.
Ellie Geranmayeh on the latest agreement between Iran and the IAEA.
Ellie Geranmayeh discusses US-Iran relations and the failure of the maximum pressure campaign on Iran.