26
Mar
Security and Defence
European Power
Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump raising…
The trouble with FCAS: Why Europe’s fighter jet project is not taking off
The disagreement over the Franco-German-Spanish fighter aircraft system, FCAS, shows that when it comes to building a European defence industry, political will is not enough
The bear and the bot farm: Countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa
Russia has many quiet enemies in Africa. Working together, like-minded Africans and Europeans can roll back its troublesome influence
Flaunting mischief: Three aims of Russia’s airspace incursions
Russia’s recent incursions into NATO airspace are the biggest escalation with the alliance since the cold war. With it, Putin likely hopes to achieve three main goals
Trump meets Putin: Why the Alaska summit is no Yalta—yet
On August 15th, the American and Russian presidents will meet in Alaska to discuss the future of Ukraine—without Ukrainians, or even Europeans, in the room. Quick results are unlikely, and in any case, Europeans still have the cards to shape them
The falcons and the secretary bird: Arab Gulf states in Sudan’s war
The Arab Gulf states’ pursuits in Sudan keep fuelling violence. But their wealth and influence mean any lasting peace will necessarily hinge on their cooperation
Snap out of it: Europe, Iran and nuclear negotiations
The deadline is looming for Britain, France and Germany to decide whether to reimpose sanctions on Iran. They are right to consider an extension to this “snapback” mechanism—and China could play a crucial role in what comes next
Decommission, not disarm: How Europe can help nudge Gaza toward peace
As Israel and Hamas edge toward a ceasefire, shifts are under way in both: Hamas is quietly opening up to decommissioning and Israel’s security elite is realising military victory is a myth. European leaders have a rare chance to help shift the Gaza war from attrition to political resolution
Britain and Europe are changing together
The nuclear pact recently signed by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer reflects how an emerging post-liberal Europe is taking the form of a defence community. Britain can help shape the continent’s new security order, so long as it banishes the Brexit mindset
Publications
The bear and the bot farm: Countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa
Russia has many quiet enemies in Africa. Working together, like-minded Africans and Europeans can roll back its troublesome influence
The falcons and the secretary bird: Arab Gulf states in Sudan’s war
The Arab Gulf states’ pursuits in Sudan keep fuelling violence. But their wealth and influence mean any lasting peace will necessarily hinge on their cooperation
Preventing the next war: A European plan for Ukraine
Together with the Ukrainians, Europeans should begin—now—to draw up a “beyond the horizon” plan for Ukraine in readiness for a ceasefire or even a peace deal
Farce then tragedy: Russian views of the West and what they mean for Ukraine
How the Kremlin’s view of a declining US and a mercurial Europe shapes the prospects for a Trump-Putin deal
Star tech enterprise: Emerging technologies in Russia’s war on Ukraine
Russia’s war on Ukraine has featured many of the technological advances the world has made over the past decades. If Europeans are serious about their defence capabilities, they need to learn from this use of emerging technology on both sides of the war
In Europe’s defence: Why the EU needs a security compact with Ukraine
The EU should conclude a security compact with Ukraine. Such an agreement would help the country defend itself against Russia and maximise the effectiveness of European military support
The secret battlefield: How the EU can help Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine protect against Russian subversion
The EU should offer Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine a new intelligence and security compact to help strengthen their security against Russia
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
Ambiguous alliance: Neutrality, opt-outs, and European defence
The EU’s work on its Strategic Compass should include debates on the special status states’ future role in European defence
The big engine that might: How France and Germany can build a geopolitical Europe
The EU Coalition Explorer survey reveals the importance of Germany and France within the EU, and the impact they can have when they cooperate with each other
Articles
The trouble with FCAS: Why Europe’s fighter jet project is not taking off
The disagreement over the Franco-German-Spanish fighter aircraft system, FCAS, shows that when it comes to building a European defence industry, political will is not enough
Flaunting mischief: Three aims of Russia’s airspace incursions
Russia’s recent incursions into NATO airspace are the biggest escalation with the alliance since the cold war. With it, Putin likely hopes to achieve three main goals
Trump meets Putin: Why the Alaska summit is no Yalta—yet
On August 15th, the American and Russian presidents will meet in Alaska to discuss the future of Ukraine—without Ukrainians, or even Europeans, in the room. Quick results are unlikely, and in any case, Europeans still have the cards to shape them
Snap out of it: Europe, Iran and nuclear negotiations
The deadline is looming for Britain, France and Germany to decide whether to reimpose sanctions on Iran. They are right to consider an extension to this “snapback” mechanism—and China could play a crucial role in what comes next
Decommission, not disarm: How Europe can help nudge Gaza toward peace
As Israel and Hamas edge toward a ceasefire, shifts are under way in both: Hamas is quietly opening up to decommissioning and Israel’s security elite is realising military victory is a myth. European leaders have a rare chance to help shift the Gaza war from attrition to political resolution
Britain and Europe are changing together
The nuclear pact recently signed by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer reflects how an emerging post-liberal Europe is taking the form of a defence community. Britain can help shape the continent’s new security order, so long as it banishes the Brexit mindset
Baltic bellwether: How to boost the EU’s civil preparedness
The Baltic states are leading efforts to strengthen Europe’s ability to face a potential foreign attack and cope with its fallout. The EU should follow their lead and build the societal and institutional resilience needed before a crisis hits
Ukraine’s due, Russia’s debt: How to use Moscow’s money against itself
Russia’s hundreds of billions of frozen assets should be lent to Ukraine—with Moscow only getting its money back if it pays reparations. Europe can make this “reparation loan” without Trump’s permission
Air of superiority: What the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine can teach Europeans about NATO readiness
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are different in a multitude of important ways. But they nonetheless offer some common lessons for Europeans on the importance of air superiority to military victory
Heart of the matter: How Denmark’s focus on Ukraine and enlargement will define its EU presidency
On 1st July, Poland hands over its EU Council presidency to Denmark. The latter’s focus on EU enlargement and support for Ukraine underscores its bid to reach Europe’s geopolitical heart—and secure Denmark against threats from east and west
Podcasts
Beyond the battlefield: Europe’s long-term strategy for Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand and Jana Kobzova to discuss ECFR’s new European Security programme and the war in Ukraine
Nuclear rhetoric: Merz, Tusk and the future of deterrence
Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras to unpack a weekend of geopolitical developments and controversies on Europe’s defence and nuclear dependence on the US
ECFR’s Emergency Room: What America’s aid pause means for Ukraine and Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Nicu Popescu, an ECFR distinguished policy fellow leading our work on the European security initiative, to discuss America’s decision to pause aid shipments to Ukraine—and how European countries are trying to turn this around
Hot and cold wars: How Eurasia shaped the modern geopolitical world
Mark Leonard welcomes Hal Brands to discuss his new book, The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World
Live from the Munich Security Conference: Europe’s wake-up call
In Munich, Mark Leonard welcomes Ulrike Franke, Camille Grand, Janka Oertel and Jana Puglierin to unpack this year’s security conference
Defence and the Zeitenwende: Glass half-empty or half-full?
Ahead of the Munich Security Conference, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin talk German defence and the future of the country’s armed forces. They review the first…
NATO at 75: The future of European defence
Vessela Tcherneva welcomes Camille Grand, Camille Lons, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, and Jana Puglierin to discuss the 75th NATO summit, and how Europe can defend itself with less America
How Europe can prepare for America’s withdrawal
At the Munich Security Conference, Mark Leonard welcomes Arancha González Laya, Camille Grand and Jana Puglierin to understand how Europeans can prepare for a second Trump presidency
A new defence strategy for Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand to discuss the future of European defence
NATO’s Vilnius summit: The highlights and the future challenges
Mark Leonard is joined by Alex Stubb, Lykke Friis, and Camille Grand, to discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit in Vilnius.
Events
26
Mar
European Power
Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump raising…
9
Jul
European Security
Round-Table – Breaking the Chain: Countering Shadow Fleet Operations in Europe’s Strategic Waterways
The event contributes to the wider Ukraine Recovery Conference by examining a critical dimension of Russia’s war against Ukraine: the economic infrastructure underlying the conflict and the maritime security challenges it creates for Europe. It aims to create space for discussion among key experts and stakeholders on policy options to address Russian economic circumvention mechanisms…
European Power
Defence without America? What Europeans are (and aren’t) ready for
Days before a high-stakes NATO summit, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) hosts to a timely webinar on European public attitudes towards Europe’s defence, the first turbulent months of President Trump’s new term, and the capacity of Europe to respond to a changing transatlantic reality. This webinar will launch our brand-new public opinion report,…
4
Jun
European Power
Das Imperium schlägt zurück? Russlands Großmachtansprüche und mitteleuropäische Bedrohungswahrnehmungen
Der Zerfall der Sowjetunion im Jahr 1991 nährte die Hoffnung auf eine friedlichere europäische Ordnung. Doch diese Hoffnung erwies sich als trügerisch. Unter Wladimir Putin erlebt Russlands Großmachtanspruch eine gefährliche Renaissance, genährt von dem Wunsch, eine Einflusssphäre in Russlands Nachbarschaft wiederherzustellen. Die vom Kreml propagierte Idee einer “russischen Welt”, die russischsprachige Bevölkerungen im Ausland sowie…
12
May
European Power
The EU-UK summit in the context of Trump 2.0
The much-anticipated EU-UK summit on 19 May, expected to include a defense pact, will be an important step in the reset between London and Brussels, with the conflict in Ukraine having been a powerful vehicule for a rapprochment. At the same time, the UK is desperate to maintain its ‘special relationship’ with the US, to also best…
14
Apr
United States
Transatlantic Forum, 8th Edition – La competizione USA-Cina per la sicurezza tecnologica
Questa edizione del Transatlantic Forum ha visto il contributo di voci dal mondo accademico, dei think tank e del settore strategico, per discutere delle tensioni tra Stati Uniti e Cina, dalla competizione tecnologica all’evoluzione delle minacce ibride, dal cyberspazio alle infrastrutture critiche. Al centro del dibattito anche il ruolo dell’Europa tra interdipendenza e autonomia strategica,…
18
Mar
United States
Riders on the storm: Trump, Europe and the future of Ukraine
La Conferenza sulla Sicurezza di Monaco e i dialoghi in Arabia Saudita tra americani e russi hanno messo in luce il tentativo di creare un nuovo ordine mondiale, che potrebbe tuttavia minacciare l’assetto liberale e, soprattutto, indebolire l’Europa. La nuova amministrazione Trump, principale artefice di questi cambiamenti, rischia di mettere gli europei gli uni contro…
European Security
US military aid on pause: what’s next for Ukraine?
With the contentious Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, and the US announcing it would pause military aid to Ukraine, Kyiv faces mounting pressure. Neither Ukraine nor its European partners want the fighting to continue indefinitely – they want the ability to shape the terms of an eventual settlement. To do so, Ukraine needs…
25
Feb
European Power
From water to airspace – Geopolitical tensions and security infrastructures: what role for Europe
ECFR is organizing a series of closed-door workshops in the framework of the project “Towards an Open, Free and Global Internet” funded by Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo and in partnership with Italian foreign policy magazine Formiche. After a first meeting on the content layer of the internet, which was held in Rome in June…
In the media
Alex Vines on the UK’s cuts to aid for African countries to support increased security spending
Alex Vines on the UK’s cuts to aid for African countries to support increased security spending
