Preventing the next war: A European plan for Ukraine
Together with the Ukrainians, Europeans should begin—now—to draw up a “beyond the horizon” plan for Ukraine in readiness for a ceasefire or even a peace deal
European Security Initiative
Featured
How to arm a pacifist: Lessons from Ukraine for the EU’s defence
EU leaders have to learn lessons from Ukraine if they want to be truly ready to take responsibility for Europe’s security
Law of duty: The case for a US-inspired EU Preparedness Act
The EU needs a legal instrument to override rules in war or major security crises, empowering institutions to prioritize military production, secure supply chains and allocate vital resources effectively
Booted, then suited: Veterans and the making of Putin’s new proto-elite
The Kremlin is promoting Ukraine war veterans–cultivating a proto-elite who could reinforce Russia’s militarised course
In the bear’s paw: How Europeans can loosen Russia’s grip on Belarus
Russia’s growing military intervention in Belarus poses a frontline security challenge for Europe. The EU needs to develop a more pragmatic strategy based on protecting its eastern border and shaping Minsk’s autonomy away from Moscow
Buzzkill: How to defend Europe against drones
Drone warfare in Europe is no longer tomorrow’s problem. The continent is under attack by drones today, and the threat is not isolated in the east
The magnificent ten: A coalition of the willing to drive the EU’s next enlargement
A Team Enlargement coalition of EU member states can drive the changes needed to bring Ukraine and others into the bloc
Managed disorder: The hard road to a modest peace with Russia after Ukraine
When the fighting in Ukraine stops, America and Europe will likely end up facing Russia in a low-grade rivalry for years to come. Here is how to prevent that disordered rivalry from sliding into another war
The fallout of the fallout: Zelensky’s reshuffle and protests in Ukraine
Zelensky’s outgoing defence minister did not hold back in his criticism of military commanders—and his allegations deserve proper scrutiny
The bear with the bomb: Russian nuclear coercion and the future of European deterrence
Russia is expanding its nuclear-capable, long-range weapon systems to press Europe and fracture NATO. Europeans need to plug the gaps in their nuclear capabilities and create a strategic deterrent that can function without US support
Twin track: How to move Ukraine’s EU accession along
The lifting of the Hungarian veto opens up new opportunities for Ukraine’s and Moldova’s EU accession
Combat lessons: What Europeans should learn from Ukraine
Buying new kit is easy. The real challenge for European militaries is to rethink how they organise themselves—and how they plan to fight
Home alone: Europeans are ready to defend themselves
A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space available to their leaders (for now) and challenges them to use it
Publications
Booted, then suited: Veterans and the making of Putin’s new proto-elite
The Kremlin is promoting Ukraine war veterans–cultivating a proto-elite who could reinforce Russia’s militarised course
In the bear’s paw: How Europeans can loosen Russia’s grip on Belarus
Russia’s growing military intervention in Belarus poses a frontline security challenge for Europe. The EU needs to develop a more pragmatic strategy based on protecting its eastern border and shaping Minsk’s autonomy away from Moscow
Buzzkill: How to defend Europe against drones
Drone warfare in Europe is no longer tomorrow’s problem. The continent is under attack by drones today, and the threat is not isolated in the east
The magnificent ten: A coalition of the willing to drive the EU’s next enlargement
A Team Enlargement coalition of EU member states can drive the changes needed to bring Ukraine and others into the bloc
Managed disorder: The hard road to a modest peace with Russia after Ukraine
When the fighting in Ukraine stops, America and Europe will likely end up facing Russia in a low-grade rivalry for years to come. Here is how to prevent that disordered rivalry from sliding into another war
The bear with the bomb: Russian nuclear coercion and the future of European deterrence
Russia is expanding its nuclear-capable, long-range weapon systems to press Europe and fracture NATO. Europeans need to plug the gaps in their nuclear capabilities and create a strategic deterrent that can function without US support
Home alone: Europeans are ready to defend themselves
A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space available to their leaders (for now) and challenges them to use it
Making defence European again
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of defence and deterrence
Accelerate the accessions: Why faster is better in EU enlargement policy
The Ukraine war has revived EU enlargement for Albania, Moldova, Montenegro and Ukraine, but they face obstacles. Accelerating membership for these frontrunners would unlock the process before rivals can take advantage
Preventing the next war: A European plan for Ukraine
Together with the Ukrainians, Europeans should begin—now—to draw up a “beyond the horizon” plan for Ukraine in readiness for a ceasefire or even a peace deal
Articles
The fallout of the fallout: Zelensky’s reshuffle and protests in Ukraine
Zelensky’s outgoing defence minister did not hold back in his criticism of military commanders—and his allegations deserve proper scrutiny
Twin track: How to move Ukraine’s EU accession along
The lifting of the Hungarian veto opens up new opportunities for Ukraine’s and Moldova’s EU accession
Combat lessons: What Europeans should learn from Ukraine
Buying new kit is easy. The real challenge for European militaries is to rethink how they organise themselves—and how they plan to fight
Enemy number one: What Putin’s foreign policy speech says about Europe
At this year’s Valdai club, Vladimir Putin gave his most anti-EU speech yet, citing his determination to see new anti-establishment politicians to come to power and improve Europe’s relations with Moscow
Trump meets Putin: Why the Alaska summit is no Yalta—yet
On August 15th, the American and Russian presidents will meet in Alaska to discuss the future of Ukraine—without Ukrainians, or even Europeans, in the room. Quick results are unlikely, and in any case, Europeans still have the cards to shape them
Too much, too fast: Europe’s defence-spending tsunami is coming
This week’s NATO summit sees defence spending at the top of the agenda. But, at the current estimation, Europe risks rearming at an unsustainable pace. This could waste resources and trigger political instability without delivering real security for European citizens
Small change, big difference: How the NATO summit can still support Ukraine
NATO members should designate their support for Ukraine as a contribution towards achieving 5% of domestic spending on defence
Litmus test: How to tell whether the Trump administration is serious about peace in Ukraine
European allies should urge the US government to use its unexploited sources of leverage over Russia—and learn from whether it does
Making them pay: How Ukraine’s special operations could bring Putin to negotiate
In the past week Ukraine has launched three surprise attacks on Russian military assets inside the country and in occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s allies in Europe should seize the momentum to compel Putin to come to the negotiating table
The long game: How Europeans can shape the outcome of Ukraine-Russia talks
The second meeting between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul has shown that a settlement is a distant prospect. To strengthen Ukraine’s hand in future talks, Europeans have a three-fold task
Specials
Eyes tight shut: European attitudes towards nuclear deterrence
Europeans remain unwilling to renew their thinking on nuclear deterrence, despite growing strategic instability. Their stated goal of “strategic autonomy” will remain an empty phrase until they engage seriously on this matter
The nightmare of the dark: The security fears that keep Europeans awake at night
Great power competition is increasingly shaping Europeans’ security environment, while other security threats are also on the rise, from terrorism and cyber attacks to climate change
Podcasts
What the Iran war means for Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Jana Kobzova to discuss how the war in Iran is affecting Ukraine, from US support to shifting European unity
The diplomatic minefield: What now for Ukraine?
Leo Litra and Lesia Ogryzko are joined by Eric Ciaramella and Jana Kobzova to discuss the development and its implications
Trump’s 28-point plan for Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova and Jim O’Brien to unpack the leaked 28-point US-Russia plan for Ukraine and its implications for European security
Ukraine, Russia and Trump’s sanctions gamble
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Jana Kobzova and Jim O’Brien to discuss the latest twists in diplomacy between Ukraine, Russia and the West
Beyond the battlefield: Europe’s long-term strategy for Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand and Jana Kobzova to discuss ECFR’s new European Security programme and the war in Ukraine
NATO summit 2025: How Europe can secure its future
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand, former NATO assistant secretary general and ECFR distinguished policy fellow, for a 15-minute Emergency Room…
Live from the Munich Security Conference: Europe’s wake-up call
In Munich, Mark Leonard welcomes Ulrike Franke, Camille Grand, Janka Oertel and Jana Puglierin to unpack this year’s security conference
Russia, Ukraine, and Europe’s war economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobsova and Nicu Popescu to discuss Russia, Ukraine, and the EU’s changing response to the conflict
NATO at 75: The future of European defence
Vessela Tcherneva welcomes Camille Grand, Camille Lons, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, and Jana Puglierin to discuss the 75th NATO summit, and how Europe can defend itself with less America
The Great Firewall: How China regulates big tech
Mark Leonard welcomes Angela Zhang to discuss China’s Big Tech regulation
Events
29
Apr
European Power
Construyendo seguridad europea: defensa, preparación y resiliencia
El pasado 29 de abril de 2026, la oficina de Madrid del European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), en colaboración con el Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores, Unión Europea y Cooperación de España, celebró en Madrid la segunda edición del diálogo político de alto nivel «Construir la seguridad europea: defensa, preparación y…
14
Oct
European Security
Preventing War in Europe: Swift Action for Peace
Europe is confronting a rapidly changing security landscape amid growing global instability. Witha major conflict unfolding in its centre and various emerging nearby, it is more important thanever for European leaders, policymakers, and experts to engage in strategic, forward-thinkingdialogue on how to tackle these pressing security challenges across different national contexts.The event explored Europe’s…
European Power
Is Russia Winning or Collapsing? The State of Country and its Society
Despite unprecedented Western sanctions, Russia’s economy has shown surprising resilience, though recent data suggests this war-fueled growth may be reaching its limits—a crucial factor since analysts have long identified the economy as key to Russia’s ability to sustain its military campaign. Simultaneously, we’re witnessing escalating Russian hybrid activities against Western nations, from drone incursions…
European Power
Defence without America? What Europeans are (and aren’t) ready for
Days before a high-stakes NATO summit, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) hosts to a timely webinar on European public attitudes towards Europe’s defence, the first turbulent months of President Trump’s new term, and the capacity of Europe to respond to a changing transatlantic reality. This webinar will launch our brand-new public…
28
Mar
European Power
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – L’Europa in scena: attore non protagonista del nuovo scenario internazionale?
Questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR si è focalizzata sulla risposta dell’Europa alla seconda presidenza Trump. Le tensioni tra gli Stati Uniti di Donald Trump e l’UE si intensificano, segnando probabilmente la fine dell’alleanza transatlantica così come l’abbiamo conosciuta negli ultimi 80 anni. Secondo l’ultimo report-sondaggio di ECFR, la maggioranza degli europei non vede…
25
Feb
European Power
From water to airspace – Geopolitical tensions and security infrastructures: what role for Europe
ECFR is organizing a series of closed-door workshops in the framework of the project “Towards an Open, Free and Global Internet” funded by Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo and in partnership with Italian foreign policy magazine Formiche. After a first meeting on the content layer of the internet, which was held in Rome…
27
Nov
European Power
The EU in the age of Digital Empires
The internet has upended the world order. The exercise of power and governance in the digital sphere has become a major source of geopolitical contestation. At the heart of this competition lay technical standards, which can define what kind of values and visions will technologies embed. But while the EU uses standards to regulate…
20
Nov
European Security
Navigating EU’s Technological Dilemmas: Embracing the case for a European Digital Grand Strategy
In an increasingly tech-driven world, Europe wants to impose its voice among the global leaders in the field. To secure a technological influence, much work has already been done at the European level, focusing mainly on the concept of European technological sovereignty (ETS), in tandem with European strategic autonomy (ESA). However, to effectively compete with…
European Security
Still standing together: A NATO summit on Ukraine’s fate
As leaders are about to take pivotal decisions for Ukraine’s fate at the NATO summit, join us for a discussion about pathways and policy options for Ukraine’s future and European Defence, based on ECFR’s latest public opinion. This webinar will delve into the nuanced public perceptions of the war in Ukraine in Ukraine itself, Switzerland, the UK as…
European Security
The Morning After: Analysing the Results of the French Election
As France discovers the new making of its national assembly, this webinar will analyse the election results and reflect on their impact on a geopolitical Europe. At a time when the continent must project unity and strength in the face of Russian aggression, what will the election mean for France’s foreign policy and Europe…
In the media
Edwin Bendyk on Russia’s drone attack on a train in Ukraine
