Mitigate, deter, escalate: Europe’s options against US economic coercion
The US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it
European Power
The European Power programme is focused on helping Europeans develop sustainable policy solutions to the issues affecting the European Union’s capacity to act with unity on the global scene. This includes analysing the path forward for the energy transition, economic and tech policy, as well as Europe’s political landscape and participation in multilateral structures.
Featured
Home alone: Europeans are ready to defend themselves
A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space available to their leaders (for now) and challenges them to use it
If Bardella wins: Scenarios for a far-right presidency in France
Jordan Bardella is the frontrunner in the French presidential election next year. His win would transform France’s place in Europe. This scenario shows how
How progress ends
Mark Leonard speaks to Carl Benedikt Frey about the global productivity slowdown, the limits of AI and why the greatest economic risk may be the end of progress itself
Mitigate, deter, escalate: Europe’s options against US economic coercion
The US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it
Home alone: Europeans are ready to defend themselves
A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space available to their leaders (for now) and challenges them to use it
3
Jun
Asia
2026 Republic of Korea (ROK)–G7 cooperation forum
The G7 and its close partners, particularly the Republic of Korea (ROK), face a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape marked by growing economic competition, technological fragmentation, and mounting security challenges. From supply chain vulnerabilities to shifting alliances and rising geopolitical tensions, these developments are testing the resilience of existing frameworks for international cooperation. Against…
If Bardella wins: Scenarios for a far-right presidency in France
Jordan Bardella is the frontrunner in the French presidential election next year. His win would transform France’s place in Europe. This scenario shows how
The new climate battle: Five deals to recharge the green transition
As climate policy becomes increasingly contested, Europe must adapt its Green Deal to a new political era. The first policy brief in the New Politics project outlines five new deals to make the transition more durable, popular and politically resilient
Why half-measures won’t solve Europe’s data-centre energy crisis
Demand for electricity and grid access is surging as AI and data centres expand. European policymakers must urgently set energy-performance standards and keep their low-carbon transition goals on track
The age of hyperpolitics
Mark Leonard welcomes Anton Jäger to discuss why political engagement is surging across Western democracies
The rise of populism
Mark Leonard speaks to Liam Byrne about populism across Europe and the failure of mainstream politics to respond
Electric collective: Europe’s clean energy future without Russia
The EU and member states must agree a high-level energy diplomacy framework and complete the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels
Publications
Mitigate, deter, escalate: Europe’s options against US economic coercion
The US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it
Home alone: Europeans are ready to defend themselves
A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space available to their leaders (for now) and challenges them to use it
If Bardella wins: Scenarios for a far-right presidency in France
Jordan Bardella is the frontrunner in the French presidential election next year. His win would transform France’s place in Europe. This scenario shows how
The new climate battle: Five deals to recharge the green transition
As climate policy becomes increasingly contested, Europe must adapt its Green Deal to a new political era. The first policy brief in the New Politics project outlines five new deals to make the transition more durable, popular and politically resilient
Electric collective: Europe’s clean energy future without Russia
The EU and member states must agree a high-level energy diplomacy framework and complete the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels
Fast energy: How Europe can power the AI revolution and stay competitive
Europeans must urgently implement a “fast energy” programme to speed up access to energy to power AI—and remain competitive in the world
Beijing hold’em: European cards against Chinese coercion
Europe has a China problem and pretending otherwise is making it worse. Chinese cheap exports and a monopoly on rare earths are not just economic irritants, but leverage wielded deliberately. Europeans can no longer just de-risk. They need a deterrence strategy with teeth
From shield to sword: Europe’s offensive strategy for the hybrid age
Europe’s defensive measures to shield its democracies from hybrid attacks are no longer enough. If Europeans want to protect their peace and prosperity, the time has come for them to fight back
The electric endgame: Europe’s clean path out of vassalage
The geoeconomic power of the future will be shaped by climate policy. Countries that play the right moves in regulation, clean-tech production and climate finance today will win in the electrified world of tomorrow
After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order
As American leadership wanes, middle powers are stitching a patchwork order through new approaches to conflict mediation, connectivity and development. Although these formats are fragmented and opportunistic, Europe should engage with them pragmatically
Articles
Why half-measures won’t solve Europe’s data-centre energy crisis
Demand for electricity and grid access is surging as AI and data centres expand. European policymakers must urgently set energy-performance standards and keep their low-carbon transition goals on track
How China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself
Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest
Magyar’s mandate: Six insights from a post-election Hungary
ECFR polling reveals that Peter Magyar’s mandate is far more complicated than EU leaders were hoping for: voters want domestic repair first, are split on Ukraine, and increasingly reluctant to ditch Russian energy
Europe’s electrification race: Five ways the EU can avoid the next energy crisis
The EU is right to raise its ambitions on the electrification rate—but the target is highly stretching. Only a more aggressive approach will suffice
The EU’s quarter-life crisis
Despite the many threats around it—and in part because of them—the continent can emerge from this period stronger and more resilient
Chilled ambitions: How the Iran war is foiling Europe’s LNG plans
Iranian strikes on Qatar’s LNG infrastructure are complicating Brussels’ plans to ditch Russian gas, handing Washington and Moscow fresh leverage
Radev’s way: What Europe can expect from Bulgaria’s new political constellation
Bulgarians have overwhelmingly voted for Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria party to take power. Radev has espoused the benefits of EU membership, but Europeans should be wary of his pro-Russia rhetoric
Four principles for an EU-Hungary reset
Brussels should set clear conditions for Hungary’s European comeback—and use its moment of leverage to incentivise a geopolitical shift
Sowing discord: How Russia is making the most of a global fertiliser shortage
Amid fears of an Iran war-fuelled global food crisis, Moscow is weaponising access to its fertiliser supplies in both Western countries and developing economies
The morning after: Lessons from Poland for a post-Orban Hungary
Hungarians have a new leader who promises to heal the country after 16 years of democratic backsliding. Lessons from the Polish experience suggest this is easier said than done
Specials
Energy Sovereignty Index: Gains, gaps, and the road ahead
ECFR’s 2024 Energy Sovereignty Index shows both progress and persistent pitfalls on the EU’s path to energy independence, efficiency, and cleanness. While gains in renewable energy and efficiency are notable, the bloc’s heavy reliance on energy imports is a critical vulnerability
Multilateral Matchmaker
Multilateral coalitions are increasingly important for combatting global challenges. Europeans have many eligible – and untapped – potential partner countries, but to stand out they need to ensure their offer is as grounded in these partners’ interests as their own
Energy Sovereignty Index
ECFR presents an innovative new way to assess the energy sovereignty of EU member states in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
EU Energy Deals Tracker
The energy deals the EU and its member states are now making with third countries will shape Europeans’ ability to protect their energy security in the long term. The EU Energy Deals Tracker provides a comprehensive overview of these agreements, including their implications for the sustainable transition
European Sovereignty Index
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act
The European Sentiment Compass 2022
In the wake of pandemic and war, the Sentiment Compass assesses the changing expectations of the EU across its member states. It finds that EU should harness the power of culture and the free media to nurture a stronger European sentiment – helping it to address the major challenges facing the continent
The Power Atlas
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world
EU Cohesion Monitor
European cohesion is bouncing back after crisis years. The EU Cohesion Monitor presents new insights on cohesion as an underestimated source of strength and collective action in the EU
EU Coalition Explorer
The Coalition Explorer illustrates the expert opinions of more than 800 respondents who work on European policy and creates a visual understanding of the views held by Europe’s professional political class
European Solidarity Tracker
The European Solidarity Tracker collects and displays instances of pan-European solidarity throughout the coronavirus crisis
Podcasts
How progress ends
Mark Leonard speaks to Carl Benedikt Frey about the global productivity slowdown, the limits of AI and why the greatest economic risk may be the end of progress itself
The age of hyperpolitics
Mark Leonard welcomes Anton Jäger to discuss why political engagement is surging across Western democracies
The rise of populism
Mark Leonard speaks to Liam Byrne about populism across Europe and the failure of mainstream politics to respond
The future of liberalism
Mark Leonard welcomes Curtis Yarvin to discuss the ideas reshaping figures in Silicon Valley and the American right, and what the future holds for liberalism
Rethinking democracy
As global upheaval puts pressure on liberal democracies, Mark Leonard and David Runciman explore whether democracy is really in decline—or simply being forced to adapt to today’s world
The age of unorder
Mark Leonard is joined by Ayşe Zarakol to explore whether we are entering an era of “unorder”—and what this means for Europe’s ability to adapt, survive and redefine its role in the world
Surviving chaos
Mark Leonard introduces his new book Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail. He is joined by Carl Bildt, Ivan Krastev, Gideon Rachman and Helle Thorning-Schmidt to unpack how capital, climate, chips, and civilisation are reshaping global politics
Hungary after Orbán
Mark Leonard is joined by Zsuzsanna Szelényi to talk about the defeat of Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán by Péter Magyar
What the Iran war means for Europe’s energy
Mark Leonard is joined by Szymon Kardaś to discuss how the war in Iran is affecting energy prices and supplies in Europe
Europe, Trump and the war in Iran
Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras, Carla Hobbs, Camille Lons, Jana Puglierin and Arturo Varvelli to discuss how Europe is responding to the war in Iran
Events
3
Jun
Asia
2026 Republic of Korea (ROK)–G7 cooperation forum
The G7 and its close partners, particularly the Republic of Korea (ROK), face a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape marked by growing economic competition, technological fragmentation, and mounting security challenges. From supply chain vulnerabilities to shifting alliances and rising geopolitical tensions, these developments are testing the resilience of existing frameworks for international cooperation. Against…
22
May
European Power
Europe Independence Moment
L’Ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) ha preso parte al Summit “Europe’s Independence Moment”, organizzato da Future Proof Society a Brescia dal 22 al 24 maggio 2026. Due gli appuntamenti in programma: 22 maggio (ore 18:00 – 19:30): Masterclass di Politica Internazionale, presso il Salone delle Scenografie del Teatro Grande. 23…
21
May
European Power
Briefing Online “From vulnerability to leverage: Europe’s defenses against Chinese economic coercion”
L’Ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) ha organizzato un briefing online dal titolo “From vulnerability to leverage: Europe’s defenses against Chinese economic coercion”, che si è tenuto il 21 maggio 2026 dalle ore 17:00 alle 18:00. Alla base del confronto c’era il policy brief “Beijing hold’em: European cards against Chinese coercion”,…
22
Apr
European Power
THE BRIDGE Italy – Poland Strategic Forum “A committed partnership: politics and economy between the Baltic and the Mediterranean”
Il 22 aprile, l’Ambasciata della Repubblica di Polonia a Roma, il Ministero degli Affari Esteri e della Cooperazione Internazionale della Repubblica Italiana e il Ministero degli Affari Esteri della Repubblica di Polonia, in collaborazione con The Opportunity Institute for Foreign Affairs e European Council on Foreign Relations, hanno organizzato l’evento “THE BRIDGE Italy – Poland…
14
Apr
European Power
L’offerta tecnologica europea: Integrare le economie emergenti nell’ecosistema digitale italiano ed europeo
L’Ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), in cooperazione con la Commissione europea, ha organizzato l’iniziativa “L’offerta tecnologica europea: Integrare le economie emergenti nell’ecosistema digitale italiano ed europeo” a Roma il 14 aprile (15:00-18:00, Palazzo Ripetta, Via di Ripetta 231, 00186). L’iniziativa è stata realizzata con il gentile sostegno della Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo; Advisor…
8
Apr
Briefing online ECFR su priorità G7. Politiche di innovazione, sicurezza economica, diplomazia economica ed intelligenza artificiale
Quest’anno lo European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) e l’Institute of Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) co-presiedono il Think7 (T7), il gruppo di consultazione ufficiale del G7 per i think tank e i centri di ricerca a livello mondiale, con l’obiettivo di elaborare nuove proposte politiche per i paesi del G7. In questo contesto, ECFR ha preparato 4 solution paper su…
European Power
ECFR elections insight: Why Hungary’s vote matters for Europe
Hungary goes to the polls on 12 April—and this one really matters. Not just for Budapest, but for the whole of Europe. Because what’s at stake here isn’t simply who governs one EU member state, but something bigger: how and whether the EU can function effectively with a spoiler state – that often acts as a backdoor to rival…
30
Mar
European Power
Il Circolo dell’ECFR – ARCHIPELAGO EUROPE: The European public opinion on defense and post-Western disorder
Il focus di questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR è l‘opinione pubblica europea di fronte al disordine post-occidentale. La discussione è partita dal policy brief “The European archipelago: Building bridges in a post-Western Europe”, a firma di Pawel Zerka e Célia Belin, rispettivamente Senior Policy Fellow di ECFR e Direttrice dell’ufficio di Parigi e Senior…
European Power
Europe’s climate crossroads: Power, competitiveness and the new global order
A growing transatlantic narrative claims that climate action is a gift to China and pressure is mounting on European policymakers to delay and water down the continent’s energy transition to safeguard its competitiveness. Yet such a dilemma between fighting climate change and remaining competitive is largely fallacious: the energy transition is already reshaping the global balance of power…
26
Mar
In the media
Jana Kobzova and Pawel Zerka on the results of ECFR’s latest polling round
Jana Kobzova and Pawel Zerka on the results of ECFR’s latest polling round
Jana Kobzova and Pawel Zerka on the results of ECFR’s latest polling round
Jana Kobzova and Pawel Zerka on the results of ECFR’s latest polling round
Jana Kobzova and Pawel Zerka on the results of ECFR’s latest polling