What a Le Pen presidency would mean for Europe and the world
How would a Le Pen presidency affect Europe and the world?
Experts & Staff
Jeremy Shapiro
Research Director
Areas of expertise
Transatlantic relations; US foreign policy
Languages
English
Biography
Jeremy Shapiro is the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. His areas of focus include US foreign policy and transatlantic relations.
Shapiro was previously a fellow with the Project on International Order and Strategy and the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings, where he edited the Foreign Policy program’s blog Order from Chaos. Prior to Brookings, he was a member of the U.S. State Department’s policy planning staff, where he advised the secretary of state on U.S. policy in North Africa and the Levant. He was also the senior advisor to Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Philip Gordon, providing strategic guidance on a wide variety of U.S.-European foreign policy issues.
War in Ukraine: a stale-mate for the West and NATO’s future?
How should Europe react to Russian loss or indeed victory in this war? And what are the possible ramifications for the West?
Don’t mention the war in Ukraine: Germany’s deteriorating image in Washington
America as a political community is losing faith in Germany. Even if the Biden administration is currently satisfied with a Germany that does the minimum, this is hardly a foundation on which to build a new leadership model for the European security order.
The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro discuss our latest polling results on the Ukraine crisis and how European policymakers might adjust their policies to reflect the public mood it reveals
21 Feb
Can Europe stand up to Chinese and Russian economic coercion?
The European Council on Foreign Relations in the context of the French Presidency of the Council of the EU is delighted to invite you to a debate on the principles that should guide Europe’s quest for economic sovereignty
Why Europe has no say in the Russia-Ukraine crisis
On a fundamental level, Europe’s lack of agency in the Russia-Ukraine crisis stems from a growing power imbalance in the Western alliance
Europe’s role in tackling the Russia-Ukraine crisis
What are European and American interests in the Russia-Ukraine crisis? What are possible ways to avert a calamity?
2022: The road to recovery (again)
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year 2022
Top 10 foreign policy trends for 2022
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year 2022
Beyond Global Britain: A realistic foreign policy for the UK
The UK government’s vision for Global Britain does not reflect today’s geostrategic realities. Yet the UK can forge an effective foreign policy if it focuses on British strengths, avoids military adventures in distant lands, and finds balanced, effective working relationships with the EU and the US.
Publications
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
Beyond Global Britain: A realistic foreign policy for the UK
The UK government’s vision for Global Britain does not reflect today’s geostrategic realities. Yet the UK can forge an effective foreign policy if it focuses on British strengths, avoids military adventures in distant lands, and finds balanced, effective working relationships with the EU and the US.
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
The geopolitics of the European Green Deal
The EU should become a global standard-setter for the energy transition, and prepare to manage the profound geopolitical repercussions of the Green Deal in its relationships with its neighbourhood
Sovereign Europe, dangerous world: Five agendas to protect Europe’s capacity to act
To manage in this new world, the EU and its members need to embark on a broad-based effort to recover their strategic sovereignty
Europe’s digital sovereignty: From rulemaker to superpower in the age of US-China rivalry
The EU cannot continue to rely on its regulatory power but must become a tech superpower in its own right. Referees do not win the game.
Health sovereignty: How to build a resilient European response to pandemics
Europe must improve its early warning systems, supply chain resilience, medical R&D, and cyber security and technology, to act decisively in future emergencies
Strategic sovereignty: How Europe can regain the capacity to act
The EU needs to learn to think like a geopolitical power
Articles
Compromise at Vilnius: Ukraine’s path to NATO membership
A form of membership offer to Ukraine at NATO’s Vilnius summit will acquire an inexorable momentum of its own
How the West should prepare for the Turkish elections
The US and the EU should refrain from making any interventions during Turkey’s election period – but they may need to respond quickly depending on the results of the vote
2023: The year we learn to stop worrying
Ten predictions for what’s coming in the world of 2023. Plus a Tik-Tok bonus.
Polarised power: The three Republican ‘tribes’ that could define America’s relationship with the world
Three Republican ‘tribes’ are competing to write their next president’s US foreign policy. Whether ‘restrainers,’ ‘prioritisers,’ or ‘primacists’ emerge on top will have profound implications for Europe and the globe
The coming transatlantic rift over Ukraine
Europeans will have to put their money where their mouth is to maintain relations with the US over Ukraine – and deliver a ‘long war plan’, such as that proposed by ECFR
No laughing MAGA: What the next US presidential election could mean for Europe
Europeans should be concerned not just with whether Trump will win but how to deal with the version of post-Trump America that could emerge in 2025
The exaggerated death of European sovereignty
The US may have dominated Western efforts to defend Ukraine, but future American leaders will expect Europeans to take up most of the burden of dealing with Russia
Don’t mention the war in Ukraine: Germany’s deteriorating image in Washington
America as a political community is losing faith in Germany. Even if the Biden administration is currently satisfied with a Germany that does the minimum, this is hardly a foundation on which to build a new leadership model for the European security order.
Why Europe has no say in the Russia-Ukraine crisis
On a fundamental level, Europe’s lack of agency in the Russia-Ukraine crisis stems from a growing power imbalance in the Western alliance
2022: The road to recovery (again)
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year 2022
Specials
Fear and loathing on the road to the US elections
European leaders are underestimating the danger that Trump presents to the transatlantic alliance and assuming too much continuity in the event of a Clinton presidency
Podcasts
How the West should prepare for the Turkish elections
Mark Leonard is joined by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro, to talk about the upcoming Turkish elections
The US, Europe, and the art of vassalisation
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Jana Puglierin to discuss EU-US relations
The Leopards are free!
Mark Leonard, Camille Grand, Gustav Gressel, Jana Puglierin, and Jeremy Shapiro discuss what the Leopard 2 decision means for the war in Ukraine
Top ten foreign policy trends for 2023
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro forecast the foreign policy trends and events for the year ahead
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
Winter is coming: Europe’s energy transition and the war in Ukraine
Can Europe remain true to its climate agenda despite Russia’s war in Ukraine?
The European Sovereignty Index #FactsThatMatter
How can the EU and member states close the gap between ambition and capability in their quest for European sovereignty?
What a Le Pen presidency would mean for Europe and the world
How would a Le Pen presidency affect Europe and the world?
War in Ukraine: a stale-mate for the West and NATO’s future?
How should Europe react to Russian loss or indeed victory in this war? And what are the possible ramifications for the West?
Events
22 May
European defence: Expectations and demands of non-EU partners
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
12 May
Green energy and China: How to avoid new dependencies?
Rhodium Group are delighted to invite you to the virtual launch event of our new policy paper “Circuit Breakers: Securing the Green Energy Supply Chain”
21 Feb
Can Europe stand up to Chinese and Russian economic coercion?
The European Council on Foreign Relations in the context of the French Presidency of the Council of the EU is delighted to invite you to a debate on the principles that should guide Europe’s quest for economic sovereignty
17 Dec
Europe’s answer to economic warfare: The EU’s anti-coercion instrument and building sovereignty in a networked world
Join ECFR in this two-part event on the EU’s potentially game-changing geopolitical instrument against economic blackmail from great powers, and the principles that should guide Europe’s quest for economic sovereignty
15 Dec
Strategic sovereignty: how can Europe survive Biden’s presidency
The event will convene a high-level group of Italian decision-makers and opinion shapers across government, business, media and the expert community as well as member of ECFR Council
In the media
Washington should seek to stabilize its relationship with Ankara, despite the fact that Turkey has embraced a post-Western identity at home and a post-Western posture in its foreign policy
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro on US-Turkey relations
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro write about Erdogan´s post-Western Turkey
In this interview, Jeremy Shapiro talks about the European silence regarding the indictment of former President Donald Trump for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election
Jana Puglierin and Jeremy Shapiro on Europe’s loss of autonomy in relation to the United States
You never write, you never call, you never send F-16s’ has long summarized [Zelensky’s] approach to getting what he wants from the West and the U.S.
Jeremy Shapiro comments on Zelensky´s “guilt-based” diplomacy in the context of the NATO summit in Vilnius