The Biden effect and the future of US-Europe relations | Part II
After last week’s discussion with Matt Duss and Jeremy Shapiro, Mark Leonard follows up by gathering the European views on a possible Biden win and…
Experts & Staff
Vessela Tcherneva
Deputy Director
Areas of expertise
EU foreign policy; Western Balkans and Black Sea regions; transatlantic relations; regional studies; energy
Languages
Bulgarian, English, German, Russian
Biography
Vessela Tcherneva is deputy director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. Her topics of focus include EU foreign policy and the Western Balkans and Black Sea region.
Between January and July 2022, she held the position of Foreign Policy Advisor to the Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov. From 2010 to 2013, she was the spokesperson for the Bulgarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a member of Foreign Minister Nickolay Mladenov’s political cabinet. Previously, she was secretary of the International Commission on the Balkans, chaired by former Italian Prime Minister Giuliano Amato and former German President Richard von Weizsäcker; supervising editor of the Foreign Policy Bulgaria magazine; and political officer at the Bulgarian Embassy in Washington, DC. Tcherneva holds an MA in Political Science from the Rhienische Friedrich-Wilhelm Universität in Bonn.
Health sovereignty: How to build a resilient European response to pandemics
Europe must improve its early warning systems, supply chain resilience, medical R&D, and cyber security and technology, to act decisively in future emergencies
Together in trauma: Europeans and the world after covid-19
A new survey shows that, after the onset of the covid-19 crisis, there has been a rise in public support for unified EU action to tackle global threats
Hashim Thaci should resign
The indictment for war crimes against Kosovo President Hassim Thaci helpfully upends the poorly conceived US initiative to reconcile Serbia and Kosovo. But it fatally delegitimates Kosovo’s current leadership
A burning issue: How to restart the dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo
It is the EU’s responsibility to normalise relations between Kosovo and Serbia in the long term. Therefore, the bloc should set the principles of, and drive, the dialogue between the countries
Bouncing back again: How past crises can help Eastern Europe fight covid-19
Common standards of health security, tech and information sharing in research and development, and better integration within healthcare supply chains could help Europe take a big step forward
French connections: How to revitalise the EU enlargement process
The new French EU enlargement reform proposal is a reasonable attempt to overcome the debate about Macron’s recent veto.
The first beneficiaries of 1989
Host Mark Leonard has an intimate discussion with our heads of offices from Sofia and Warsaw, Vessela Tcherneva and Piotr Buras about their experiences, hopes…
After the French veto: The new scramble for the Western Balkans
Without a credible path to EU membership, the Western Balkans could easily succumb to the lure of regional nationalism – and to generous Russian, Turkish, and Chinese offers in the EU’s own back yard
How to deal with our Western Balkan neighbours?
North Macedonia and Albania wanted to start negotiations with the EU after having been candidate countries since 2005 and 2014. But the enlargement plans seemed…
Publications
The path to recognition: Kosovo’s and Serbia’s evolving dialogue
The solution to the dispute between Kosovo and Serbia should be to create a societal consensus on both sides of the border
Health sovereignty: How to build a resilient European response to pandemics
Europe must improve its early warning systems, supply chain resilience, medical R&D, and cyber security and technology, to act decisively in future emergencies
Together in trauma: Europeans and the world after covid-19
A new survey shows that, after the onset of the covid-19 crisis, there has been a rise in public support for unified EU action to tackle global threats
Absorb and conquer: An EU approach to Russian and Chinese integration in Eurasia
Europe shouldn’t be afraid of Russian and Chinese efforts to integrate the Eurasian landmass, but should absorb them into its international order
Return to instability: How migration and great power politics threaten the Western Balkans
EU’s weakness is prompting a new scramble for power for the Balkans with Russia, Turkey and other actors
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2016
The sixth ECFR Foreign Policy Scorecard highlights the EU’s diminishing ability to influence its neighbours, and the neighbourhood’s growing impact on the EU
Rebooting EU Foreign Policy
The EU is ill-equipped to respond to foreign policy crises
Articles
Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of annexation
On Sofia’s streets: How protests are highlighting an Orbanist turn in Bulgaria
Bulgarians have turned out in their thousands to protest against the government. The EU needs to address the country’s democratic backsliding and avoid it becoming part of Viktor Orban’s camp
Unlock the veto deadlock to secure Europe’s enlargement
What began as a cautious enlargement process is now a test of whether the EU can reform, overcome vetoes, and lead in a rapidly shifting world order
Energy reckoning: How Europe can use US sanctions to cut Moscow’s oil ties
The EU has a strategic opening to align with US sanctions on Rosneft and LUKoil. It must compel divestment from European assets and close loopholes that enable Moscow to circumvent restrictions
After Novi Sad: How the EU can help Serbia resurrect its democratic path
Serbia’s young people are making their dissatisfaction with Aleksandar Vucic’s corrupt government known. The EU should consider freezing Serbia’s accession negotiations and support the country’s return to democratic fundamentals
Trump’s new Yalta: Eastern Europe risks being on the wrong side of the divide
Donald Trump has a radical economic agenda—and a developing allyship with Vladimir Putin. The EU needs to protect Europe’s eastern flank from corruption and the kleptocrats who could further isolate it from the West
Quick off the bloc: Security challenges for the next European Commission
For the European Union to convince the world – and its citizens – that it is taking its geopolitical responsibilities seriously, the next European Commission must be proactive in improving its approach to security
Depopulation blues: How immigration can counter emigration in the Balkans
To tackle the political and economic challenges posed by shrinking populations, Balkan governments need to approach immigration as an opportunity, rethinking their policies and political messaging
Before it’s too late: How the EU should support the Western Balkans’ EU accession
With Russia’s war on Ukraine raging on its eastern border, EU enlargement in the Western Balkans has a new geopolitical urgency. The EU must commit to supporting their accession – and a fixed date like 2030 alongside a staged approach will add credibility to this commitment
Cautious optimism: What Bulgaria’s new government means for Europe
After a year of interim governments, Bulgaria’s new administration has halted Bulgaria’s march to illiberalism and provided some hope for the region
Podcasts
Democratic decay in Bulgaria
Mark Leonard welcomes Vessela Tcherneva and Maria Simeonova, to discuss the deteriorating political situation in Bulgaria
East meets West in Ankara: Inside the prisoner swap with Russia
The prisoner exchange between the West and Russia last week was the largest swap since the end of the cold war. At Turkey’s Ankara airport,…
NATO at 75: The future of European defence
Vessela Tcherneva welcomes Camille Grand, Camille Lons, Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, and Jana Puglierin to discuss the 75th NATO summit, and how Europe can defend itself with less America
Europe is shifting: EU election results could divide Europe
In this new episode, Vessela Tcherneva welcomes head of ECFR offices to discuss national implications of the EU elections
The future of European politics
Mark Leonard welcomes the heads of ECFR’s national offices to discuss key players outside the traditional halls of European power
How the EU should respond to Belarus
What will be the impact of the EU and US measures against Belarus? And what should be next steps also ahead of the EU-US summit on 15 June?
China’s strategic approach to the Western Balkans
How much influence does China already have in the Western Balkans and how should European policymakers react?
Belarus’s brutal politics
What kind of implications do the developments in Belarus have for the wider neighbourhood and Europe?
Europe’s role in America’s election
How will and can Europeans react in the event of a post-election chaos in the US? The election day is fast approaching yet the outcome still…
The Biden effect and the future of US-Europe relations | Part II
After last week’s discussion with Matt Duss and Jeremy Shapiro, Mark Leonard follows up by gathering the European views on a possible Biden win and…
Events
9
Oct
The UK & the EU Changing Together: High-Level Conference in Sofia
The changing international environment creates a new opportunity for the relationship between Britain and the EU. From security and defence to trade, migration, and climate, the partnership between the UK and the EU is a strategic imperative. A plurality of Brits and Europeans believe in a closer UK-EU partnership and want them to come together…
European Power
A pivotal choice: Poland’s presidential election and the future of Europe’s foreign policy and defence agenda
The final round of the Polish presidential election of 1 June 2025 is a milestone for Poland and for Europe. The close race between pro-European Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, and Karol Nawrocki, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, crystallizes two of the biggest challenges facing the European Union (EU) at the…
European Security
Still standing together: A NATO summit on Ukraine’s fate
As leaders are about to take pivotal decisions for Ukraine’s fate at the NATO summit, join us for a discussion about pathways and policy options for Ukraine’s future and European Defence, based on ECFR’s latest public opinion. This webinar will delve into the nuanced public perceptions of the war in Ukraine in Ukraine itself, Switzerland, the UK as well as…
28
Mar
European Power
Rethinking & Reshaping: EU Enlargement in times of war
Russia’s war against Ukraine has prompted European policymakers to rethink their approach to enlargement. What form does this new approach take, what are the opportunities for EU and candidate countries, and what is the European Political Community’s role?
6
Mar
European Power
United West, divided from the rest? Come europei, cinesi, indiani, russi ed americani guardano alla guerra
Nell’attuale contesto internazionale, le relazioni dell’Europa con le potenze globali stanno cambiando rapidamente, e la loro evoluzione rappresenta un elemento di analisi ineludibile nel delineare la strategia di politica estera dell’UE
8
Nov
The role of Germany in Europe in times of war: Potential for German-Bulgarian cooperation
We will discuss Germany’s role in Europe and will reflect on how the new European order is viewed in Berlin
28
Oct
Kosovo-Serbia Relations: The Circle of (Dis)Trust and (Un)Equality /Belgrade Security Forum 2021/
After more than eleven years of the EU facilitated dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, this process could be described as “one step forward, two steps back”. The seriousness of challenges that constantly emerge in relations between Kosovo and Serbia shows that despite the goodwill and dedication of the Western stakeholders, domestic democratic capacities, nationalistic politics, geopolitics, and third players hinder the possibility of reaching a comprehensive solution
Wider Europe
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in the Black Sea
What can the EU and NATO do to reduce the risk of escalation in the region?
European Power
Конкурентоспособност на българската икономика в контекста на Европейската зелена сделка
This event will be in Bulgarian but simultaneous translation into English will be provided
In the media
Vessela Tcherneva on Greenland and Europe’s strategic autonomy
Vessela Tcherneva and Maria Simeonova present ECFR’s new polling data
Vessela Tcherneva on the results of a survey on Europeans’ attitudes towards the roles of the EU and the US
Vessela Tcherneva on Bulgaria and the Board of Peace
Vessela Tcherneva at Sofia Economic Forum 2026