The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order.
Ukraine
Featured
Resist and reform: Ukraine’s democracy after a year of war
Ukraine’s EU candidacy means the country not only has to preserve its democratic institutions in the face of all-out war – but also reform and strengthen them
Alligator arms: A proactive strategy for Ukraine’s military support
Western military support helped sustain Ukraine through the first year of the war. But if Western allies want a Ukrainian victory, they need to adopt a more proactive strategy
To tell the Truth: The Republican party’s Ukraine divide
Mitch McConnell uttered comforting words in Munich, but European policymakers would serve the cause of European defence better by planning for a Trump or DeSantis presidency
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash, and Ivan Krastev discuss the main findings of ECFR’s latest opinion poll
A tribunal like no other: Prosecuting Russia’s crime of aggression in Ukraine
A special tribunal for the crime of aggression could help secure justice for Ukrainians harmed by Russia’s invasion. Such a court would have three major implications
Closing ranks: Ukraine’s role in future European defence
European leaders should integrate Ukraine into common defence projects, where the country’s experience and knowledge of war-fighting will be invaluable
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
New polling for ECFR reveals the West is consolidating – while facing an increasingly post-Western world, in which powers such as India and Turkiye are readier than ever to act independently
Live from the Munich Security Conference: Where is world politics turning?
Mark Leonard reports live from the Munich Security Conference
Repair, replace, reimburse: Sustaining a European tank coalition for Ukraine
Military help for Ukraine is moving towards serious questions of logistics – but more countries still need to step forward. Here is how the next-stage coalition could look.
The second year of Russia’s war: Scenarios for the Ukraine conflict in 2023
Russia is likely to make some progress in the first half of 2023, but it may lack the capability to hold on to its gains
Publications
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
New polling for ECFR reveals the West is consolidating – while facing an increasingly post-Western world, in which powers such as India and Turkiye are readier than ever to act independently
Defend. Resist. Repeat: Ukraine’s lessons for European defence
Ukraine has mounted an innovative response to Russian aggression in 2022. The rest of Europe can learn from this – but should continue to provide weapons and training in return
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
The next war: How Russian hybrid aggression could threaten Moldova
Russia could target Moldova by embarking on a limited-scope but overt military invasion – or by pursuing more covert hybrid aggression scenarios. Moldova and the EU need to embrace “active resilience” to address this.
Partnership for Enlargement: A new way to integrate Ukraine and the EU’s eastern neighbourhood
Russia’s war on Ukraine means the EU must devise a new approach to its neighbourhood. It should establish a Partnership for Enlargement that offers Ukraine and other states concrete steps towards deeper integration.
A question of balance: India and Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Europeans have found India’s position on the Ukraine war frustrating. But, although it is dependent on Russia for its arms, and has huge worries about China, India is actually moving inexorably closer to the West.
The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order.
The secret battlefield: How the EU can help Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine protect against Russian subversion
The EU should offer Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine a new intelligence and security compact to help strengthen their security against Russia
The young and the restless: Europe, Russia, and the next generation of diplomats in the Eastern Partnership
Young diplomats in Eastern Partnership countries are optimistic and pro-European. Many of them want the EU to become a bolder geopolitical actor.
Faltering fightback: Zelensky’s piecemeal campaign against Ukraine’s oligarchs
The campaign has encouraged Zelensky’s tendency towards governance through informal means. This has allowed him to act speedily – but it risks letting oligarchic influence return
Articles
Resist and reform: Ukraine’s democracy after a year of war
Ukraine’s EU candidacy means the country not only has to preserve its democratic institutions in the face of all-out war – but also reform and strengthen them
Alligator arms: A proactive strategy for Ukraine’s military support
Western military support helped sustain Ukraine through the first year of the war. But if Western allies want a Ukrainian victory, they need to adopt a more proactive strategy
To tell the Truth: The Republican party’s Ukraine divide
Mitch McConnell uttered comforting words in Munich, but European policymakers would serve the cause of European defence better by planning for a Trump or DeSantis presidency
A tribunal like no other: Prosecuting Russia’s crime of aggression in Ukraine
A special tribunal for the crime of aggression could help secure justice for Ukrainians harmed by Russia’s invasion. Such a court would have three major implications
Closing ranks: Ukraine’s role in future European defence
European leaders should integrate Ukraine into common defence projects, where the country’s experience and knowledge of war-fighting will be invaluable
Repair, replace, reimburse: Sustaining a European tank coalition for Ukraine
Military help for Ukraine is moving towards serious questions of logistics – but more countries still need to step forward. Here is how the next-stage coalition could look.
The second year of Russia’s war: Scenarios for the Ukraine conflict in 2023
Russia is likely to make some progress in the first half of 2023, but it may lack the capability to hold on to its gains
Send in the Leopards: Why Western allies should deliver tanks to Ukraine
After several countries committed to delivering heavy weapons to Ukraine, all eyes are on Germany and the US, and whether they will agree to send Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine
The risk of ‘refugee fatigue’: Three ways European leaders can support Ukrainians fleeing the war
To counter Russian disinformation and take on populist parties, European politicians should do more to shape the debate around Ukrainian refugees in Europe
Russia-proofing Europe
Although Ukrainians are heading into a hard winter sustained by a sense of optimism and hope for peace in the near future, this is no time for complacency. The West, and especially the European Union, must get serious about positioning itself for a protracted, multi-pronged conflict.
Podcasts
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash, and Ivan Krastev discuss the main findings of ECFR’s latest opinion poll
Live from the Munich Security Conference: Where is world politics turning?
Mark Leonard reports live from the Munich Security Conference
Davos world: Alexander Stubb and Mark Leonard live from the WEF
Mark Leonard and Alexander Stubb give us their take on this year’s World Economic Forum
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
The future of open society with Leonard Benardo
Leonard Benardo joins Mark Leonard to discuss the great challenges open societies are currently experiencing
Ukraine in the age of unpeace with Fiona Hill
Fiona Hill and Mark Leonard talk to Jason Cowley talk to about the new paperback edition of Mark Leonard’s latest book, “The Age of Unpeace”, in light of the war in Ukraine
Lessons for a post-Ukraine world with Fareed Zakaria
Fareed Zakaria discusses the political, geopolitical, and geo-economic changes to the world order after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war in Ukraine
New ECFR research reveals that Europe’s remarkable unity in the early days of the war is under threat from an emerging split – between those who want peace as soon as possible and those who favour justice for Ukraine
The new Davos man: Ukraine, energy, and global powers
What were this World Economic forum’s biggest themes? Which discussions on the Ukraine crisis were the most convincing?
Events
31 Jan
Power audit of EU-Russia relations: How Europeans are learning to handle a new reality
Concluding that Russia poses a threat and that the EU let its dependencies grow too deep, the bloc so far attempted to decouple from Moscow. How should Europeans navigate the adversarial relationship in the future?
14 Dec
From surviving to thriving: How Europe should support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To brace for a “Long War”, Europe needs to be ready to take its lessons learned from more than half a year of the war to heart and deliver enduring support to Ukraine
8 Jul
New paperback released – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict
Mark Leonard will launch his newly released paperback edition of his book – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict (Penguin) with a brand-new essay on the war in Ukraine and its implications for geopolitics
23 Jun
Il Circolo dell’ECFR: Pandemia e guerra in Ucraina. La visione dei cittadini europei
Lo European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) e Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo organizzano a Torino una nuova edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR sulla visione dei cittadini europei su pandemia e guerra in Ucraina
22 Jun
The impact of the war in Ukraine on the international system
Conference on the war in Ukraine and its consequences on the international system
11 Apr
Crisi energetica. La Geopolitica del Green Deal. Sovranità energetica europea, conflitto in Ucraina e competizione tra Grandi Potenze
Il conflitto in Ucraina ha confermato l’urgenza di un’azione congiunta europea su energia e clima
6 Apr
Invasione russa dell’Ucraina: Ruolo dell’UE nel contesto regionale e globale
Gli europei richiedono maggiore cooperazione a lungo termine su diversi dossier, in particolare in materia di sicurezza e difesa
30 Mar
Europe and the refugee crisis: what needs to be done
What instruments does the EU have at its disposal to address the challenges related to the crisis? And what are the lessons learned from the refugee crisis in 2015?
23 Mar
The role of outside powers in Ukraine
Do any outside powers have any chance of bringing Russia and Ukraine closer to peace?
11 Mar
No longer only deeply concerned: Europe’s military response to the Russian war and what next
Ahead of the EU summit, French and Polish experts will discuss the European security situation as the war in Ukraine unfolds. They will analyse the current developments, EU’s role in the conflict and challenges for the EU security and defence in the upcoming months.
In the media
All the defense companies in Brussels are more engaged with the EU than they’ve ever been
In Ukraine, they are asking themselves what would happen if a tank falls behind and is captured and analyzed by the Russians
Ukraine will receive the export variant of the Abrams, like those in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iraq
One of the messages they regularly intend to send is that NATO is able to do things that Russia is not
If you doubt America’s commitment to Europe, you also have to tolerate doubt in Germany’s commitment to Eastern Europe
Rafael Loss revisits Berlin’s refusal to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine without the US