The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order
Ukraine
Featured
Putin in Kursk: The meaning of political theatre
Putin’s visit to Kursk revealed an effort to buy time and keep focused on his ultimate war goals
Asserting agency: How Europeans can ensure Ukraine’s security
As Washington’s plan for Ukraine appears further and further from European interests, Europeans need to put an alternative offer on the table. It should rest on four pillars
7 Mar
US military aid on pause: what’s next for Ukraine?
With the contentious Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, and the US announcing it would pause military aid to Ukraine, Kyiv faces mounting pressure
ECFR’s Emergency Room: What America’s aid pause means for Ukraine and Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Nicu Popescu, an ECFR distinguished policy fellow leading our work on the European security initiative, to discuss America’s decision to pause aid shipments to Ukraine—and how European countries are trying to turn this around
Ukraine and the US-Russia talks: Deterrence or disarray?
In Searching for Deutschland’s last pre-election episode, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin review the Munich Security Conference, the US-Russia talks on Ukraine, and what the new era…
29 Jan
Don’t wait for Washington: What the EU can do for Ukraine and its own security
After taking office, Donald Trump did not stop the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Yet, there are high expectations that his administration will at…
What if Russia wins in Ukraine? We can already see the shadows of a dark 2025
Instability is growing, Putin’s hybrid war in Europe is heating up, and for fear of escalation we have encouraged global nuclear proliferation
Farce then tragedy: Russian views of the West and what they mean for Ukraine
How the Kremlin’s view of a declining US and a mercurial Europe shapes the prospects for a Trump-Putin deal
Forging peace: Europe’s role in Ukraine’s future
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, Jana Kobzova, and Nicu Popescu to discuss European security guarantees for Ukraine and the path to sustainable peace
Staying power: Securing peace in Ukraine while balancing European interests
European governments’ hesitation to pursue strategic security goals in Ukraine risks leaving them absent from peace negotiations, undermining both Kyiv’s position and Europe’s role in shaping a stable European security order
Publications
Farce then tragedy: Russian views of the West and what they mean for Ukraine
How the Kremlin’s view of a declining US and a mercurial Europe shapes the prospects for a Trump-Putin deal
Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine
The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive, but prevail
Reformation nation: Wartime politics in Ukraine
No clear postwar situation is likely to emerge in Ukraine. The country’s EU partners will have to help it reform during wartime
Star tech enterprise: Emerging technologies in Russia’s war on Ukraine
Russia’s war on Ukraine has featured many of the technological advances the world has made over the past decades. If Europeans are serious about their defence capabilities, they need to learn from this use of emerging technology on both sides of the war
China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
New polling for ECFR reveals the West is consolidating – while facing an increasingly post-Western world, in which powers such as India and Turkiye are readier than ever to act independently
Defend. Resist. Repeat: Ukraine’s lessons for European defence
Ukraine has mounted an innovative response to Russian aggression in 2022. The rest of Europe can learn from this – but should continue to provide weapons and training in return
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support
The next war: How Russian hybrid aggression could threaten Moldova
Russia could target Moldova by embarking on a limited-scope but overt military invasion – or by pursuing more covert hybrid aggression scenarios. Moldova and the EU need to embrace “active resilience” to address this
Partnership for Enlargement: A new way to integrate Ukraine and the EU’s eastern neighbourhood
Russia’s war on Ukraine means the EU must devise a new approach to its neighbourhood. It should establish a Partnership for Enlargement that offers Ukraine and other states concrete steps towards deeper integration
Articles
Putin in Kursk: The meaning of political theatre
Putin’s visit to Kursk revealed an effort to buy time and keep focused on his ultimate war goals
Asserting agency: How Europeans can ensure Ukraine’s security
As Washington’s plan for Ukraine appears further and further from European interests, Europeans need to put an alternative offer on the table. It should rest on four pillars
What if Russia wins in Ukraine? We can already see the shadows of a dark 2025
Instability is growing, Putin’s hybrid war in Europe is heating up, and for fear of escalation we have encouraged global nuclear proliferation
Staying power: Securing peace in Ukraine while balancing European interests
European governments’ hesitation to pursue strategic security goals in Ukraine risks leaving them absent from peace negotiations, undermining both Kyiv’s position and Europe’s role in shaping a stable European security order
Between the lines: Monitoring Putin’s response to Ukraine’s long-range missiles
Ukraine has carried out its first strikes inside Russian territory with Western-made, long-range missiles; Vladimir Putin responded by launching a new type of weapon. NATO allies must now send a clear deterrence message without following Russia’s escalatory rhetoric
Der Untergang: As Trump returns, Putin will reap the rewards of Europe’s inaction on Ukraine
Reducing military assistance to Ukraine will put the country in such a precarious and unpredictable situation that Moscow will have even fewer incentives to come to the table
The US election, Ukraine, and the meaning of peace
The US election has fuelled calls to negotiate a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine. But the new administration will not be able to escape the fact that Western security guarantees are a precondition for any sustainable settlement
Beyond deterrence: How Zelensky’s victory plan can live up to its name
Ukraine’s victory plan can only move beyond being a deterrence strategy with less prevarication from Europeans. But Kyiv will also need to adapt to the realities of fluctuating Western support
Zelensky has a game-changing plan to win peace. For it to work, Biden must back it – fast
In besieged Kharkiv, I saw how Ukraine is approaching a perilous moment. To turn the tide, it first needs to decisively knock back Russia
Red lines (blow away): Ukraine’s incursion into Russia
Ukraine’s audacious incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has changed the narrative of the war – and called Putin’s bluff on his so-called red lines
Podcasts
ECFR’s Emergency Room: What America’s aid pause means for Ukraine and Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Nicu Popescu, an ECFR distinguished policy fellow leading our work on the European security initiative, to discuss America’s decision to pause aid shipments to Ukraine—and how European countries are trying to turn this around
Ukraine and the US-Russia talks: Deterrence or disarray?
In Searching for Deutschland’s last pre-election episode, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin review the Munich Security Conference, the US-Russia talks on Ukraine, and what the new era…
Forging peace: Europe’s role in Ukraine’s future
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, Jana Kobzova, and Nicu Popescu to discuss European security guarantees for Ukraine and the path to sustainable peace
Unity or disunity for Ukraine: that is the question
In the first big multilateral test for prime minister Giorgia Meloni, this mini-series will explore the four main priorities of Italy’s 2024 G7 presidency: Ukraine, AI, infrastructure, and Africa
Ukraine’s future in NATO
Mark Leonard welcomes Ivan Krastev to discuss how NATO membership can help Ukraine negotiate a durable peace
Understanding the current military situation in Ukraine
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Michael Kofman and Gustav Gressel to discuss the military situation in Ukraine
NATO’s Vilnius summit: The highlights and the future challenges
Mark Leonard is joined by Alex Stubb, Lykke Friis, and Camille Grand, to discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit in Vilnius.
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash, and Ivan Krastev discuss the main findings of ECFR’s latest opinion poll
Live from the Munich Security Conference: Where is world politics turning?
Mark Leonard reports live from the Munich Security Conference
Davos world: Alexander Stubb and Mark Leonard live from the WEF
Mark Leonard and Alexander Stubb give us their take on this year’s World Economic Forum
Events
7 Mar
US military aid on pause: what’s next for Ukraine?
With the contentious Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, and the US announcing it would pause military aid to Ukraine, Kyiv faces mounting pressure
29 Jan
Don’t wait for Washington: What the EU can do for Ukraine and its own security
After taking office, Donald Trump did not stop the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Yet, there are high expectations that his administration will at…
28 Nov
Countering disinformation as a global challenge
This international conference will discuss the main aspects of disinformation as a global challenge. It has been organised by the Embassy of the Republic of…
24 Oct
Ukraine has a plan. Does the EU have one?
Nearly three years into the full-scale war, Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience and adaptability to counter Moscow’s relentless attacks. Now, President Zelensky has unveiled Ukraine’s…
17 Oct
Das ÜberLeben der Anderen: Warum Deutschlands Sicherheit global gedacht werden muss
Konflikte in Gaza, im Sudan und in der Ukraine, irreguläre Migration, Klimakrise und Extremismus: Die Welt wird von immer mehr gleichzeitig aufretenden Krisen erschüttert, die…
9 Jul
Still standing together: A NATO summit on Ukraine’s fate
As leaders are about to take pivotal decisions for Ukraine’s fate at the NATO summit, join us for a discussion about pathways and policy options for…
10 Jun
ECFR’s Election Insights: Implications for Europe’s foreign policy agenda
This webinar will provide a snapshot analysis of election results and their implications for Europe’s foreign policy and security agenda. Featuring perspectives from selected ECFR…
3 Jun
Disinformation storm. Managing the unmanageable?
The Russian large-scale invasion of Ukraine has opened many European pandora boxes. Among them, energy and economic dependence from Russia; EU’s reaction time to Putin’s aggression; European disunity; the military and defense question; Europe’s fragility in the technological competition. Last, but not least, Europe’s exposure to external actors’ influence, with consequences on the information space and the “Open Internet” era, undermined like never before by disinformation
7 May
European Elections and beyond: Crafting Europe’s new geopolitical agenda
Amid a volatile geopolitical environment, ECFR’s recent public opinion poll ahead of the European elections shows that a geopolitical case for Europe resonates with voters,…
6 May
Geopolitics of Enlargement: Ukraine Strategy
This webinar will discuss current revisions of the EU approach to enlargement policy and the security implications for Ukraine and the neighborhoods
In the media
The Russians have consistently reiterated that their objective is not a ceasefire
Marie Dumoulin was interviewed by Ouest France on the truce negotiations between Russia and Ukraine
Vladimir Putin wants to make it clear that his green light will come at a cost
Marie Dumoulin was interviewed by L’Express on the consequences of the agreement between Washington and Kiev on the American ceasefire proposal