The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order
Ukraine
Featured
Zelensky has a game-changing plan to win peace. For it to work, Biden must back it – fast
In besieged Kharkiv, I saw how Ukraine is approaching a perilous moment. To turn the tide, it first needs to decisively knock back Russia
17 Oct
Das ÜberLeben der Anderen: Warum Deutschlands Sicherheit global gedacht werden muss
Konflikte in Gaza, im Sudan und in der Ukraine, irreguläre Migration, Klimakrise und Extremismus: Die Welt wird von immer mehr gleichzeitig aufretenden Krisen erschüttert, die…
Red lines (blow away): Ukraine’s incursion into Russia
Ukraine’s audacious incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has changed the narrative of the war – and called Putin’s bluff on his so-called red lines
Rebuilding Ukraine: How a ‘prevention first’ approach can avert destruction and save costs
Secure air defences and freer weapons use would encourage Ukrainians to return home, protect energy supplies, and boost the economy
9 Jul
Still standing together: A NATO summit on Ukraine’s fate
As leaders are about to take pivotal decisions for Ukraine’s fate at the NATO summit, join us for a discussion about pathways and policy options for…
Unity or disunity for Ukraine: that is the question
In the first big multilateral test for prime minister Giorgia Meloni, this mini-series will explore the four main priorities of Italy’s 2024 G7 presidency: Ukraine, AI, infrastructure, and Africa
10 Jun
ECFR’s Election Insights: Implications for Europe’s foreign policy agenda
This webinar will provide a snapshot analysis of election results and their implications for Europe’s foreign policy and security agenda. Featuring perspectives from selected ECFR…
3 Jun
Disinformation storm. Managing the unmanageable?
The Russian large-scale invasion of Ukraine has opened many European pandora boxes. Among them, energy and economic dependence from Russia; EU’s reaction time to Putin’s aggression; European disunity; the military and defense question; Europe’s fragility in the technological competition. Last, but not least, Europe’s exposure to external actors’ influence, with consequences on the information space and the “Open Internet” era, undermined like never before by disinformation
Ukraine can still recover with bolder Western support – but right now it’s on the ropes
The Ukrainian world heavyweight boxing champion beat back a giant opponent, but his country can’t defeat Russia on its own
6 May
Geopolitics of Enlargement: Ukraine Strategy
This webinar will discuss current revisions of the EU approach to enlargement policy and the security implications for Ukraine and the neighborhoods
Publications
Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine
The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive, but prevail
Reformation nation: Wartime politics in Ukraine
No clear postwar situation is likely to emerge in Ukraine. The country’s EU partners will have to help it reform during wartime
Star tech enterprise: Emerging technologies in Russia’s war on Ukraine
Russia’s war on Ukraine has featured many of the technological advances the world has made over the past decades. If Europeans are serious about their defence capabilities, they need to learn from this use of emerging technology on both sides of the war
China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
New polling for ECFR reveals the West is consolidating – while facing an increasingly post-Western world, in which powers such as India and Turkiye are readier than ever to act independently
Defend. Resist. Repeat: Ukraine’s lessons for European defence
Ukraine has mounted an innovative response to Russian aggression in 2022. The rest of Europe can learn from this – but should continue to provide weapons and training in return
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support
The next war: How Russian hybrid aggression could threaten Moldova
Russia could target Moldova by embarking on a limited-scope but overt military invasion – or by pursuing more covert hybrid aggression scenarios. Moldova and the EU need to embrace “active resilience” to address this
Partnership for Enlargement: A new way to integrate Ukraine and the EU’s eastern neighbourhood
Russia’s war on Ukraine means the EU must devise a new approach to its neighbourhood. It should establish a Partnership for Enlargement that offers Ukraine and other states concrete steps towards deeper integration
A question of balance: India and Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Europeans have found India’s position on the Ukraine war frustrating. But, although it is dependent on Russia for its arms, and has huge worries about China, India is actually moving inexorably closer to the West
Articles
Zelensky has a game-changing plan to win peace. For it to work, Biden must back it – fast
In besieged Kharkiv, I saw how Ukraine is approaching a perilous moment. To turn the tide, it first needs to decisively knock back Russia
Red lines (blow away): Ukraine’s incursion into Russia
Ukraine’s audacious incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has changed the narrative of the war – and called Putin’s bluff on his so-called red lines
Rebuilding Ukraine: How a ‘prevention first’ approach can avert destruction and save costs
Secure air defences and freer weapons use would encourage Ukrainians to return home, protect energy supplies, and boost the economy
Ukraine can still recover with bolder Western support – but right now it’s on the ropes
The Ukrainian world heavyweight boxing champion beat back a giant opponent, but his country can’t defeat Russia on its own
The power of a promise: Understanding Ukraine’s bilateral security agreements
Bilateral security agreements send a clear and important signal of allies’ support for Ukraine. But to avoid hurting Ukraine in the long run, it is important to be clear about their limitations
From crisis to climate: Europe’s energy diplomacy after two years of war in Ukraine
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU and its member states have intensified their energy diplomacy, moving away from Russian supplies and towards more secure – and greener – alternatives. But to do so efficiently, greater coordination at the EU-level is needed
Greasing the gears: Readying Ukraine’s civil service for a European future
Away from Ukraine’s frontlines, its civil servants are leading the country towards EU membership – but huge reforms are needed if they are to be successful
When soft power is spent: Gaza, Ukraine, and Europeans’ standing in the Arab world
Europeans’ reputation as defenders of international law has cratered among their Arab partners. The first step is to recognise the problem
You break, you pay: Why the West should start confiscating frozen Russian assets now
Ukraine’s Western allies are discussing the possibility of confiscating frozen Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine’s reconstruction. But if confiscated during the war, these funds could provide desperately needed – and stable – financial support for Kyiv’s war effort
Ukraine, Russia, and the Minsk agreements: A post-mortem
Western policymakers should study the lessons of the Minsk agreements – and drop any illusions about the ways in which Russia supposedly acts
Podcasts
Unity or disunity for Ukraine: that is the question
In the first big multilateral test for prime minister Giorgia Meloni, this mini-series will explore the four main priorities of Italy’s 2024 G7 presidency: Ukraine, AI, infrastructure, and Africa
Ukraine’s future in NATO
Mark Leonard welcomes Ivan Krastev to discuss how NATO membership can help Ukraine negotiate a durable peace
Understanding the current military situation in Ukraine
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Michael Kofman and Gustav Gressel to discuss the military situation in Ukraine
NATO’s Vilnius summit: The highlights and the future challenges
Mark Leonard is joined by Alex Stubb, Lykke Friis, and Camille Grand, to discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit in Vilnius.
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash, and Ivan Krastev discuss the main findings of ECFR’s latest opinion poll
Live from the Munich Security Conference: Where is world politics turning?
Mark Leonard reports live from the Munich Security Conference
Davos world: Alexander Stubb and Mark Leonard live from the WEF
Mark Leonard and Alexander Stubb give us their take on this year’s World Economic Forum
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
The future of open society with Leonard Benardo
Leonard Benardo joins Mark Leonard to discuss the great challenges open societies are currently experiencing
Events
17 Oct
Das ÜberLeben der Anderen: Warum Deutschlands Sicherheit global gedacht werden muss
Konflikte in Gaza, im Sudan und in der Ukraine, irreguläre Migration, Klimakrise und Extremismus: Die Welt wird von immer mehr gleichzeitig aufretenden Krisen erschüttert, die…
9 Jul
Still standing together: A NATO summit on Ukraine’s fate
As leaders are about to take pivotal decisions for Ukraine’s fate at the NATO summit, join us for a discussion about pathways and policy options for…
10 Jun
ECFR’s Election Insights: Implications for Europe’s foreign policy agenda
This webinar will provide a snapshot analysis of election results and their implications for Europe’s foreign policy and security agenda. Featuring perspectives from selected ECFR…
3 Jun
Disinformation storm. Managing the unmanageable?
The Russian large-scale invasion of Ukraine has opened many European pandora boxes. Among them, energy and economic dependence from Russia; EU’s reaction time to Putin’s aggression; European disunity; the military and defense question; Europe’s fragility in the technological competition. Last, but not least, Europe’s exposure to external actors’ influence, with consequences on the information space and the “Open Internet” era, undermined like never before by disinformation
7 May
European Elections and beyond: Crafting Europe’s new geopolitical agenda
Amid a volatile geopolitical environment, ECFR’s recent public opinion poll ahead of the European elections shows that a geopolitical case for Europe resonates with voters,…
6 May
Geopolitics of Enlargement: Ukraine Strategy
This webinar will discuss current revisions of the EU approach to enlargement policy and the security implications for Ukraine and the neighborhoods
25 Apr
Belarus in 2024: Navigating Trajectories of War and Repression
This event will discuss Belarus’ role in Russia’s war against Ukraine and the repressions and threats faced by the democratic opposition in Belarus and in exile. It will also explore possible actions by Western countries in this context
9 Apr
Ukrainian Victory. How to bring sustainable peace back to Europe
The event, organised by the Embassy of Ukraine in Rome and the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in Rome in cooperation with the Italian Federation for Human Rights (FIDU) and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) will discuss the current situation in Ukraine in a closed-door roundtable, with the participation of visiting Ukrainian experts
28 Mar
Rethinking & Reshaping: EU Enlargement in times of war
Russia’s war against Ukraine has prompted European policymakers to rethink their approach to enlargement. What form does this new approach take, what are the opportunities for EU and candidate countries, and what is the European Political Community’s role?
26 Mar
Transatlantic Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in…
In the media
We can talk forever about Polish and Ukrainian history and where all grievances are coming from, but it’s another thing to link it all with the European Union’s enlargement
Whatever the outcome of the Ukrainian conflict, the Russian issue is not going to disappear, which means that the European states must continue to invest in defence
American pressure is likely to increase to push for negotiation. The challenge for Volodymyr Zelensky is to say that this negotiation can get underway only if they are in a favourable position
Marie Dumoulin on the ‘victory plan’ that Volodymyr Zelensky will present in Washington on 26 September
If Moscow’s goal in this war is to destroy the statehood of Ukraine, then the idea of peace talks is very difficult to achieve
Vessela Tcherneva commented on Zelenski’s last night’s statement and the three points he stressed