30 Nov
Uninterrupted support: What Ukraine needs from the EU in the Long War
Ahead of the European Council in December where accession talks with Ukraine are expected to be opened, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is…
Russia
Loud complicity: Why Russian officials are breaking their silence on Ukraine
Russian officials are becoming increasingly vocal about their support for the war in Ukraine. This is likely to continue unless the EU ramps up personal sanctions against such individuals
Propaganda in holy orders: Africa, Ukraine, and the Russian Orthodox Church
The Russian Orthodox Church’s expansion into Africa is a reminder that Western policymakers should treat the church as an arm of the Russian state
Russia’s regional elections: A prelude to Putin’s future
The ruling United Russia party had an unsurprising victory in Russia’s regional elections, but the means the Kremlin used to achieve this reveal how electoral success may be secured in the future
Stuck in the ‘90s: How Russia’s opposition can shape its political future by reconciling with its past
Russian president Vladimir Putin presents himself as the antidote to the pain of the 1990s, instead fashioning his leadership as a continuation of Russia’s grand history. By reconciling with this past, Russia’s opposition can threaten Putin’s legitimacy and offer Russia a path towards a new political future
13 Sep
Italia, Europa e disinformazione russa e cinese: sfide e prospettive in vista delle elezioni europee 2024
In vista delle elezioni europee del 2024, la disinformazione si conferma una delle sfide che Italia ed Europa devono affrontare con grande urgenza. Per…
Middle powers, big impact: Africa’s ‘coup belt,’ Russia, and the waning global order
The changing global order has created an enabling environment for the recent spike of takeovers in Africa’s ‘coup belt’ – with Russia and newly assertive middle powers offering themselves as partners to putschists
One step beyond: Why the EU needs a Russia strategy
The EU needs a Russia strategy that looks beyond the war in Ukraine. Such a policy should centre around support for countries that border Russia, the reduction of Russia’s influence worldwide, and preparation for scenarios of change within the country
Three lessons from Europe’s response to Ukrainian migration
Europe’s response to Ukrainian migration has shown the benefits of a humane approach towards refugees. It should set a precedent for a more compassionate European migration policy
“Fighting spirit”: Russia’s technocrat elite after the Wagner mutiny
The rise of private military companies remains a concern for Russian governing elites, but the Wagner mutiny has consolidated their support for the Putin regime
Publications
China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
The old is dying and the new cannot be born: A power audit of EU-Russia relations
ECFR’s new EU-Russia power audit reveals a picture of success in decoupling from Moscow – and suggests the bloc could emerge stronger from the crisis
Cold winter: How the EU can help Moldova survive Russian pressure and protect its democracy
If Moldova can resist Russia’s weaponisation of gas and get through this winter, it should be able to make strong progress on its programme of reforms
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
The next war: How Russian hybrid aggression could threaten Moldova
Russia could target Moldova by embarking on a limited-scope but overt military invasion – or by pursuing more covert hybrid aggression scenarios. Moldova and the EU need to embrace “active resilience” to address this.
A question of balance: India and Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Europeans have found India’s position on the Ukraine war frustrating. But, although it is dependent on Russia for its arms, and has huge worries about China, India is actually moving inexorably closer to the West.
The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order.
It’s complicated: Russia’s tricky relationship with China
The West does not have an opportunity to prompt a policy U-turn in Moscow that divides Russia and China. But it could give Russia space to hedge against China in key areas
The secret battlefield: How the EU can help Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine protect against Russian subversion
The EU should offer Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine a new intelligence and security compact to help strengthen their security against Russia
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea
Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them
Articles
Loud complicity: Why Russian officials are breaking their silence on Ukraine
Russian officials are becoming increasingly vocal about their support for the war in Ukraine. This is likely to continue unless the EU ramps up personal sanctions against such individuals
Propaganda in holy orders: Africa, Ukraine, and the Russian Orthodox Church
The Russian Orthodox Church’s expansion into Africa is a reminder that Western policymakers should treat the church as an arm of the Russian state
Russia’s regional elections: A prelude to Putin’s future
The ruling United Russia party had an unsurprising victory in Russia’s regional elections, but the means the Kremlin used to achieve this reveal how electoral success may be secured in the future
Stuck in the ‘90s: How Russia’s opposition can shape its political future by reconciling with its past
Russian president Vladimir Putin presents himself as the antidote to the pain of the 1990s, instead fashioning his leadership as a continuation of Russia’s grand history. By reconciling with this past, Russia’s opposition can threaten Putin’s legitimacy and offer Russia a path towards a new political future
Middle powers, big impact: Africa’s ‘coup belt,’ Russia, and the waning global order
The changing global order has created an enabling environment for the recent spike of takeovers in Africa’s ‘coup belt’ – with Russia and newly assertive middle powers offering themselves as partners to putschists
One step beyond: Why the EU needs a Russia strategy
The EU needs a Russia strategy that looks beyond the war in Ukraine. Such a policy should centre around support for countries that border Russia, the reduction of Russia’s influence worldwide, and preparation for scenarios of change within the country
Three lessons from Europe’s response to Ukrainian migration
Europe’s response to Ukrainian migration has shown the benefits of a humane approach towards refugees. It should set a precedent for a more compassionate European migration policy
“Fighting spirit”: Russia’s technocrat elite after the Wagner mutiny
The rise of private military companies remains a concern for Russian governing elites, but the Wagner mutiny has consolidated their support for the Putin regime
The Ukrainian counteroffensive: Why Western allies should keep calm and carry on
The Ukrainian counteroffensive is contending with a well-prepared enemy. Western allies need to remain patient as they equip Ukraine to put continued pressure on Russian defences
Warlords don’t end wars: Why Wagner will not solve the Russia problem
The Wagner mutiny showed that Western states cannot expect a challenge from within to end Russia’s war
Specials
Russia in the grey zones
What role does Russia play in the breakaway regions of Eastern Europe?
Life in the grey zones: Reports from Europe’s breakaway regions
Locked in a shadowy life between war and peace, “grey zones” now litter the map of Eastern Europe
Minsk Monitor
Following high level ministerial meetings on Ukraine, ECFR's Wider Europe team report on the implementation the Minsk agreement
Podcasts
How Putin created the most threatening regime in the world – with Michael Thumann
Mark Leonard invited Michael Thumann to talk about his new book “Revenge: How Putin created the most threatening regime in the world”
Agathe Demarais on sanctions as a foreign policy tool
Mark Leonard talks with Agathe Demarais about how sanctions work and how they can be truly effective
The Clash of Orders with Fyodor Lukyanov on Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by Fyodor Lukyanov to learn more about the Russian perspective on global order
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
The new Davos man: Ukraine, energy, and global powers
What were this World Economic forum’s biggest themes? Which discussions on the Ukraine crisis were the most convincing?
European solidarity and the Russia-Ukraine war
How sustainable is European unity? And what scenarios of solidarity or division can be expected in the next few months?
Ukrainian identity and Russian strategy
What concepts define Ukrainian history and identity, and how is this important in understanding Ukraine’s response to the Russian invasion?
War in Ukraine: a stale-mate for the West and NATO’s future?
How should Europe react to Russian loss or indeed victory in this war? And what are the possible ramifications for the West?
Events
30 Nov
Uninterrupted support: What Ukraine needs from the EU in the Long War
Ahead of the European Council in December where accession talks with Ukraine are expected to be opened, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is…
13 Sep
Italia, Europa e disinformazione russa e cinese: sfide e prospettive in vista delle elezioni europee 2024
In vista delle elezioni europee del 2024, la disinformazione si conferma una delle sfide che Italia ed Europa devono affrontare con grande urgenza. Per…
13 Jul
Democratic defence: Dibattito su Italia, Europa e disinformazione
Cosa possono fare Italia ed Europa sul tema della disinformazione e delle interferenze esterne in vista delle elezioni europee del 2024?
12 Jul
China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
How has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022—and the conduct of the war since then—changed China’s support for Russia and its wider outlook on the world? What lessons can Europe learn from China’s relationship to Russia?
14 Jun
Who controls the Russian military?
What are the political dynamics surrounding the Russian military? Exploring potential scenarios for Russia’s civil-military development and implications for NATO and Europe
28 Feb
Russia’s war against Ukraine one year on: Views from Central Europe
Russia’s devastating war against Ukraine on European soil has been raging for one year now. With tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives lost, the country is fighting…
31 Jan
Power audit of EU-Russia relations: How Europeans are learning to handle a new reality
Concluding that Russia poses a threat and that the EU let its dependencies grow too deep, the bloc so far attempted to decouple from Moscow. How should Europeans navigate the adversarial relationship in the future?
8 Nov
The role of Germany in Europe in times of war: Potential for German-Bulgarian cooperation
We will discuss Germany’s role in Europe and will reflect on how the new European order is viewed in Berlin
7 Sep
A world safe for autocracy? Gideon Rachman in conversation with Jana Puglierin
In conversation with Jana Puglierin, Gideon Rachman will present his book “The Age of the Strongmen”
17 May
It’s complicated: The Russia-China Axis
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
In the media
That doesn’t mean that Kazakhstan is willingly coming under Russian influence, but that it’s trying to preserve its relationship with the country that is still its most important partner
Marie Dumoulin on the evolution of Kazakhstan’s relations with Russia since February 2022
We can expect there might be something boiling inside the system but obviously, smart people will try to hide it as much as possible before beginning to collect allies and resources to act
Kirill Shamiev expects the Russian political opposition to take more time before becoming a potential threat to Putin’s next presidency
Economic relations with Beijing keep the Russian system running
In her column, Jana Puglierin writes that Europe must react in a unified way to the Moscow-Beijing axis