Escalating dependence: Russia’s nuclear plans for Belarus
Putin may be bluffing about the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. But if he follows through, the chance of a democratic transition for Belarus could all but vanish
Russia
Population-centric: Lessons from Russia’s hybrid war in Moldova
Russian political proxies are weaponising protests in Moldova, escalating Russia’s hybrid war in the country. Despite optimistic appearances, Moldovan authorities are ill-prepared to face this crisis.
Brothers (not yet) in arms: China-Russia relations a year into the war in Ukraine
China’s ‘peace plan’ for the war in Ukraine merely underlines its Russia-friendly perspective and desire to protect its own interests
28 Feb
Russia’s war against Ukraine one year on: Views from Central Europe
Russia’s devastating war against Ukraine on European soil has been raging for one year now. With tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives lost, the country is fighting…
Conscious uncoupling: Europeans’ Russian gas challenge in 2023
Europeans made remarkable progress in removing Russian gas from their energy mix in 2022. But 2023 brings with it a whole host of new challenges
How Putin created the most threatening regime in the world – with Michael Thumann
Mark Leonard invited Michael Thumann to talk about his new book “Revenge: How Putin created the most threatening regime in the world”
Easy prey? Russia’s influence in Bulgaria
Newly released investigations have shed light on how corruption and the weak rule of law in Bulgaria enable Russian influence to thrive
Agathe Demarais on sanctions as a foreign policy tool
Mark Leonard talks with Agathe Demarais about how sanctions work and how they can be truly effective
Russia under pressure: How Europe and the US are upping the ante in Africa
European and US support for African representation on the UNSC exposes the emptiness of Russia’s rhetoric on Africa and the global order. European leaders should take every opportunity to advance the issue of a permanent African seat or seats
Publications
The old is dying and the new cannot be born: A power audit of EU-Russia relations
ECFR’s new EU-Russia power audit reveals a picture of success in decoupling from Moscow – and suggests the bloc could emerge stronger from the crisis
Cold winter: How the EU can help Moldova survive Russian pressure and protect its democracy
If Moldova can resist Russia’s weaponisation of gas and get through this winter, it should be able to make strong progress on its programme of reforms
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
The next war: How Russian hybrid aggression could threaten Moldova
Russia could target Moldova by embarking on a limited-scope but overt military invasion – or by pursuing more covert hybrid aggression scenarios. Moldova and the EU need to embrace “active resilience” to address this.
A question of balance: India and Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Europeans have found India’s position on the Ukraine war frustrating. But, although it is dependent on Russia for its arms, and has huge worries about China, India is actually moving inexorably closer to the West.
The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order.
It’s complicated: Russia’s tricky relationship with China
The West does not have an opportunity to prompt a policy U-turn in Moscow that divides Russia and China. But it could give Russia space to hedge against China in key areas
The secret battlefield: How the EU can help Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine protect against Russian subversion
The EU should offer Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine a new intelligence and security compact to help strengthen their security against Russia
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea
Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
Articles
Escalating dependence: Russia’s nuclear plans for Belarus
Putin may be bluffing about the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. But if he follows through, the chance of a democratic transition for Belarus could all but vanish
Population-centric: Lessons from Russia’s hybrid war in Moldova
Russian political proxies are weaponising protests in Moldova, escalating Russia’s hybrid war in the country. Despite optimistic appearances, Moldovan authorities are ill-prepared to face this crisis.
Brothers (not yet) in arms: China-Russia relations a year into the war in Ukraine
China’s ‘peace plan’ for the war in Ukraine merely underlines its Russia-friendly perspective and desire to protect its own interests
Conscious uncoupling: Europeans’ Russian gas challenge in 2023
Europeans made remarkable progress in removing Russian gas from their energy mix in 2022. But 2023 brings with it a whole host of new challenges
Easy prey? Russia’s influence in Bulgaria
Newly released investigations have shed light on how corruption and the weak rule of law in Bulgaria enable Russian influence to thrive
Russia under pressure: How Europe and the US are upping the ante in Africa
European and US support for African representation on the UNSC exposes the emptiness of Russia’s rhetoric on Africa and the global order. European leaders should take every opportunity to advance the issue of a permanent African seat or seats
The risk of ‘refugee fatigue’: Three ways European leaders can support Ukrainians fleeing the war
To counter Russian disinformation and take on populist parties, European politicians should do more to shape the debate around Ukrainian refugees in Europe
Russia-proofing Europe
Although Ukrainians are heading into a hard winter sustained by a sense of optimism and hope for peace in the near future, this is no time for complacency. The West, and especially the European Union, must get serious about positioning itself for a protracted, multi-pronged conflict.
Death in Belarus: The meaning behind Lukashenka’s new foreign minister choices
As he appoints a new foreign minister after the death of Uladzimir Makei, Lukashenka has three potential options to choose from
How to defeat Russia and prevent nuclear armageddon with one weird trick
We are not on a path to nuclear war – but strong deterrence measures from the West can help ensure that scenario remains unlikely
Specials
Russia in the grey zones
What role does Russia play in the breakaway regions of Eastern Europe?
Life in the grey zones: Reports from Europe’s breakaway regions
Locked in a shadowy life between war and peace, “grey zones” now litter the map of Eastern Europe
Minsk Monitor
Following high level ministerial meetings on Ukraine, ECFR's Wider Europe team report on the implementation the Minsk agreement
Podcasts
How Putin created the most threatening regime in the world – with Michael Thumann
Mark Leonard invited Michael Thumann to talk about his new book “Revenge: How Putin created the most threatening regime in the world”
Agathe Demarais on sanctions as a foreign policy tool
Mark Leonard talks with Agathe Demarais about how sanctions work and how they can be truly effective
The Clash of Orders with Fyodor Lukyanov on Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by Fyodor Lukyanov to learn more about the Russian perspective on global order
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
The new Davos man: Ukraine, energy, and global powers
What were this World Economic forum’s biggest themes? Which discussions on the Ukraine crisis were the most convincing?
European solidarity and the Russia-Ukraine war
How sustainable is European unity? And what scenarios of solidarity or division can be expected in the next few months?
Ukrainian identity and Russian strategy
What concepts define Ukrainian history and identity, and how is this important in understanding Ukraine’s response to the Russian invasion?
War in Ukraine: a stale-mate for the West and NATO’s future?
How should Europe react to Russian loss or indeed victory in this war? And what are the possible ramifications for the West?
Events
28 Feb
Russia’s war against Ukraine one year on: Views from Central Europe
Russia’s devastating war against Ukraine on European soil has been raging for one year now. With tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives lost, the country is fighting…
31 Jan
Power audit of EU-Russia relations: How Europeans are learning to handle a new reality
Concluding that Russia poses a threat and that the EU let its dependencies grow too deep, the bloc so far attempted to decouple from Moscow. How should Europeans navigate the adversarial relationship in the future?
8 Nov
The role of Germany in Europe in times of war: Potential for German-Bulgarian cooperation
We will discuss Germany’s role in Europe and will reflect on how the new European order is viewed in Berlin
7 Sep
A world safe for autocracy? Gideon Rachman in conversation with Jana Puglierin
In conversation with Jana Puglierin, Gideon Rachman will present his book “The Age of the Strongmen”
17 May
It’s complicated: The Russia-China Axis
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
6 Apr
Invasione russa dell’Ucraina: Ruolo dell’UE nel contesto regionale e globale
Gli europei richiedono maggiore cooperazione a lungo termine su diversi dossier, in particolare in materia di sicurezza e difesa
30 Mar
Europe and the refugee crisis: what needs to be done
What instruments does the EU have at its disposal to address the challenges related to the crisis? And what are the lessons learned from the refugee crisis in 2015?
11 Mar
No longer only deeply concerned: Europe’s military response to the Russian war and what next
Ahead of the EU summit, French and Polish experts will discuss the European security situation as the war in Ukraine unfolds. They will analyse the current developments, EU’s role in the conflict and challenges for the EU security and defence in the upcoming months.
3 Mar
Zeitenwende: Germany as a pioneer in foreign and security policy?
A webinar on Germany’s change of course in defence spending amid the ongoing war in Ukraine
21 Feb
Can Europe stand up to Chinese and Russian economic coercion?
The European Council on Foreign Relations in the context of the French Presidency of the Council of the EU is delighted to invite you to a debate on the principles that should guide Europe’s quest for economic sovereignty
In the media
The gap between the military technology used by Ukraine and that used by Russia continues to grow
It’s nice to think of Russia as confronting the hegemon as opposed to having invaded a smaller neighbor
Ukraine will receive the export variant of the Abrams, like those in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iraq
Normalization is going to be very hard, and maybe even impossible, with this kind of attitude
Engjellushe Morina, expert on the Western Balkans, comments on Russia’s “hybrid occupation” of Serbia, which threatens to derail its peace plan with Kosovo
People want to see a quick end to the war in Ukraine, even if it means Ukraine giving up western-supported aspirations to victory and accepting the temporary loss of some territory
A recent ECFR survey reveals a significant shift in public opinion in several key countries