Do not expect a rush of arms sales to Iran
A broad range of political and financial problems are likely to prevent Iran from importing advanced weapons systems in the coming years
The Gulf
Talking to the Houthis: How Europeans can promote peace in Yemen
European states should now increase conditional engagement with the Houthis, looking to widen political and humanitarian space on the ground
The deaths of the mediators-in-chief: Oman, Kuwait, and de-escalation in the Gulf
The new, still-unsteady leaders of Kuwait and Oman cannot afford to take the same risks as their predecessors. They will need Europe’s support if they are to maintain their independence.
Israel-UAE peace deal: Flipping the regional order of the Middle East
The Israel-UAE peace deal provides multiple wins for both countries, and for the US. But it could yet deepen the region’s political fault lines.
Deep sea rivals: Europe, Turkey, and new eastern Mediterranean conflict lines
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria.
The Yemen conflict: Southern separatism in action
The Southern Transitional Council’s declaration of “self-rule” threatens to revive the internecine feuds of previous generations
Saudi Arabia, energy geopolitics, and the big production cut
Saudi Arabia took a major risk in launching the oil price war. There may be a political price to pay.
A Gulf apart: How Europe can gain influence with the Gulf Cooperation Council
The ECFR Rome office organized a virtual gathering, moderated by the Head of ECFR Rome Arturo Varvelli, to present the ECFR publication “A Gulf…
Game of chicken: How the oil price war threatens the Gulf
The Russian-Saudi oil spat is exacerbating volatility in the Gulf – and beyond