Tunisia coup: What Europeans can do to save North Africa’s only democracy
Europeans cannot stand apart from the chaos in Tunisia – indeed, active European involvement now can help restore stability to the country
North Africa
The EU and France in the Sahel
What does the end of Operation Barkhane in its current form mean for the Sahel?
After Barkhane: What France’s military drawdown means for the Sahel
Emmanuel Macron took allies by surprise when he announced the end of Operation Barkhane. But his new plans do not appear to offer the change of tack the Sahel needs.
Back from the brink: A better way for Europe to support Tunisia’s democratic transition
The EU and its member states can assist Tunisian leaders by providing new investment – and thereby reboot the democratic transition
Free to choose: A new plan for peace in Western Sahara
The UN should pursue a “free association” option for Western Sahara – a third way that offers a realistic means of fulfilling Sahrawi self-determination
This time is different: Spain, Morocco, and weaponised migration
By weaponising migration in Ceuta to advance its Western Sahara claim, Morocco has made several major mistakes. Spain is part of an EU that is not in a joking mood on irregular migration blackmail.
Caught in transition: Tunisia’s protests and the threat of repression
As economic hardship and political infighting persist in debt-laden Tunisia, the EU should raise its concerns about the escalation of violence in the country and work to prevent it from sliding back into repression
Plot twist: How Europe should deal with Libya’s new government
Europe should support the UN process in Libya by working to ensure that the country’s upstart new government focuses on preparing for and holding the general election in December
Power surge: How the European Green Deal can succeed in Morocco and Tunisia
North African countries such as Morocco and Tunisia can help Europe meet its carbon emissions targets and strengthen its position in the face of fierce competition from China
Spoiler alert: How Europe can save diplomacy in Libya
Europeans should provide stabilisation, technical, and diplomatic support to strengthen Libya’s governance and accountability mechanisms to ensure a new government can successfully hold elections in 2021
Publications
Back from the brink: A better way for Europe to support Tunisia’s democratic transition
The EU and its member states can assist Tunisian leaders by providing new investment – and thereby reboot the democratic transition
Free to choose: A new plan for peace in Western Sahara
The UN should pursue a “free association” option for Western Sahara – a third way that offers a realistic means of fulfilling Sahrawi self-determination
Power surge: How the European Green Deal can succeed in Morocco and Tunisia
North African countries such as Morocco and Tunisia can help Europe meet its carbon emissions targets and strengthen its position in the face of fierce competition from China
Spoiler alert: How Europe can save diplomacy in Libya
Europeans should provide stabilisation, technical, and diplomatic support to strengthen Libya’s governance and accountability mechanisms to ensure a new government can successfully hold elections in 2021
A return to Africa: Why North African states are looking south
North African countries, each for their own reasons, are increasingly turning their attention towards sub-Saharan Africa
Reform from crisis: How Tunisia can use covid-19 as an opportunity
The government must build on its response to the pandemic to create a compromise that shares the burden of reform between political actors and interest groups
Demonstration effects: How the Hirak protest movement is reshaping Algerian politics
The Hirak protest movement has revealed flaws in Algeria’s ruling system, which lacks the tools to reinvent itself
Libya’s global civil war
Introduction The Libyan National Army’s (LNA) recent advance on Tripoli, under the leadership of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, has pushed Libya into what could become…
Pushing the boundaries: How to create more effective migration cooperation across the Mediterranean
Introduction As the European Union strives to stem the flow of migrants across the Mediterranean, its policymakers have repeatedly identified North Africa as key to…
Order from chaos: Stabilising Libya the local way
The tragedy of Libya in well known in outline but poorly known in detail – to many in Europe, that is. But Europe has a role in the country’s stabilisation.
Articles
Tunisia coup: What Europeans can do to save North Africa’s only democracy
Europeans cannot stand apart from the chaos in Tunisia – indeed, active European involvement now can help restore stability to the country
After Barkhane: What France’s military drawdown means for the Sahel
Emmanuel Macron took allies by surprise when he announced the end of Operation Barkhane. But his new plans do not appear to offer the change of tack the Sahel needs.
This time is different: Spain, Morocco, and weaponised migration
By weaponising migration in Ceuta to advance its Western Sahara claim, Morocco has made several major mistakes. Spain is part of an EU that is not in a joking mood on irregular migration blackmail.
Caught in transition: Tunisia’s protests and the threat of repression
As economic hardship and political infighting persist in debt-laden Tunisia, the EU should raise its concerns about the escalation of violence in the country and work to prevent it from sliding back into repression
Plot twist: How Europe should deal with Libya’s new government
Europe should support the UN process in Libya by working to ensure that the country’s upstart new government focuses on preparing for and holding the general election in December
Why the Western Sahara dispute could escalate conflicts across North Africa and the Sahel
Fighters across the region may be drawn in if the violence continues, as has happened for years in Libya’s cascading internal and proxy wars
How new street protests can help diplomacy in Libya succeed
Rival camps in Libya will likely sabotage political processes that could undermine them. The international community can head this off by harnessing protesters’ justified anger.
Turkey and Europe: Growing tensions and a hot summer in the Mediterranean
Europe needs a grand bargain with Turkey that can create a short- and longer-term conflict-resolution framework covering energy, maritime boundaries, the Cyprus conflict, and Libya
Why the war in Libya is a test for Italy – and for a geopolitical European Commission
If Italy was the front facing east during the cold war, then today it is vulnerable to the south: the country has been drawn into a geopolitical competition that looms over the Strait of Sicily
Italy’s chance in Libya
The tide of Libya’s war is turning against renegade general Khalifa Haftar. Italy should seize this opportunity to lead European countries to a harmonised Libya policy.
Specials
Deep sea rivals: Europe, Turkey, and new eastern Mediterranean conflict lines
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria.
Mapping armed groups in Mali and the Sahel
Violence is tearing Mali and the Sahel apart. But who are the armed groups behind the bloodshed? Where are international actors stationed in the region? And what motivates them all?
A quick guide to Libya’s main players
In Libya there are very few truly national actors, the vast majority are local players. This guide explains who the players are and what they control.
Podcasts
The EU and France in the Sahel
What does the end of Operation Barkhane in its current form mean for the Sahel?
Russia’s Syria, Turkey’s Libya?
The attempt of a peace process in Libya is facing several substantial hindrances, where a variety of actors keep on inducing significant upheavals in its…
The Berlin Libya Conference: a moment to shine for European foreign policy?
Anthony Dworkin stands in for our usual host, Mark Leonard, to de-brief the Berlin Conference on Libya. Together with the ECFR’s experts Asli Aydıntaşbaş, Tarek…
Quelle issue pour la situation en Libye ?
Podcast de notre BCM du 5 mai « Quelle issue pour la situation en Libye ? » en présence de Tarek Megerisi, chercheur…
Protests in Algeria: A fifth term for Bouteflika?
Mark Leonard speaks with Andrew Lebovich, Anthony Dworkin and Chloe Teevan, about what the demonstrators want, and EU-Algeria relations. Bookshelf: La Martingale Algérienne, Réflexions…
The Sahel: A transit region for migration
Mark Leonard speaks with Shoshana Fine and Andrew Lebovich about what is Europe trying to so in the Sahel. Bookshelf: The Good Immigrant by Nico…
Les politiques migratoires et de sécurité de l’Union européenne dans le Sahel
Podcast de notre BCM du 9 octobre : « Les politiques migratoires et de sécurité de l’Union européenne dans le Sahel » avec Giovanni Faleg,…
Russia and the Middle East
Podcast de notre conférence du 1 octobre en partenariat avec l’Institut d’études de sécurité de l’Union européenne (EUISS) : « Russia and the Middle East…
Is Libya falling apart again?
Mark Leonard speaks with Julien Barnes-Dacey and Tarek Megerisi about the Libyan conflict, the impact of the Paris summit, and Europe’s fight over migration policies…
The role of France in the Middle East
Is France alone in the desert? ECFR experts Julien Barnes-Dacey and Manuel Lafont Rapnouil discuss how France can lead Europe in the Middle East
In the media
It’s more and more unlikely by the day. There just isn’t enough time.
What happened was not a sincere effort to defend Tunisia from an imminent threat. But neither was it a well-planned coup to take advantage of local discontent and seize absolute powers.
He would win with a small majority, and the revolutionary groups would start an immediate war
Russia has leverage over Haftar, but forcing through a Saif al-Islam candidacy would be a “massive mistake” thinks Tarek Megerisi
His popularity now is a law of diminishing returns […] Everything he does is going to lose him some supporters
The difficult decisions that will be needed to manage the situation in Tunisia may undermine Saied’s support, thinks Tarek Megerisi
European inaction in the crisis could cause an ‘anti-democratic domino effect’
The turmoil in Tunisia could also spread to neighbouring countries, warns Tarek Megerisi