Policy Fellow
Defence and security policy; military operations; nuclear strategy and arms control
German, English
Rafael Loss is a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. His work focuses on security and defence in the Euro-Atlantic area; military operations, innovation, and technology; and nuclear strategy and arms control.
Before joining ECFR, Loss was a research associate at the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Livermore, California. He is an alumnus of the German Federal Ministry of Defence’s Manfred Wörner Seminar, the NATO Defense College’s Early-Career Nuclear Strategists Workshop, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Nuclear Scholars Initiative.
Loss was a Fulbright fellow at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, where he earned an MA in international relations. He also holds a BA in political science from the University of Bremen.
The EU has made insufficient progress in enhancing its sovereignty, particularly in security and defence. The union now needs to overcome internal differences to bolster its external ability to act
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act
As the EU builds up its global footprint, it’s crucial to avoid European naval gazing. Instead, Europe needs to engage partners around the world on…
The revolution in defence funding and energy policy that Germany recently announced should be accompanied by an intellectual awakening
Another Russian attack on Ukraine would jeopardise talks between Washington and Moscow on strategic stability and a follow-on agreement to New START
COP26 concluded on 13 November with the Glasgow Climate Pact, an agreement that sets out the next phase of the fight against climate change. The pact may have disappointed many, but views of it vary a great deal depending on where you sit. Below, experts from three of ECFR’s offices – in Rome, Paris, and Berlin – discuss the implications of the deal
Whoever wins the election, the next German government must approach climate action more systematically and in a more sustained fashion
As American leadership wanes, middle powers are stitching a patchwork order through new approaches to conflict mediation, connectivity and development. Although these formats are fragmented and opportunistic, Europe should engage with them pragmatically
Member states are not divided into two diametrically opposed camps. This makes the implementation of the European Green Deal an intricate puzzle – yet achievable
The pandemic poses a threat to European cohesion by increasing economic divides and undermining trust in the EU and national governments
With America’s credibility eroding, Europeans are looking for alternatives to US extended nuclear deterrence. Leaders should find confidence in electorate support for strengthening nuclear deterrence through European cooperation
Greenland has long played a strategic role in Western defence and missile warning systems. Now Trump’s “Golden Dome” plan offers an opportunity for US-Europe cooperation to boost Arctic security and nuclear deterrence
Donald Trump has rolled out America’s stark new National Defense Strategy. Europeans need to be prepared to take control of their own defence future
Europeans are focused on improving their military readiness—but deterrence also depends on moving forces fast. EU infrastructure plans must prepare Europe’s land, sea and air routes for commerce and conflict
America’s gradual retreat from European security under the current Trump administration is reshaping NATO’s centre of gravity. To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to spend more—they need to learn to lead
Russia’s recent incursions into NATO airspace are the biggest escalation with the alliance since the cold war. With it, Putin likely hopes to achieve three main goals
By stationing troops in Lithuania, Germany sets a precedent that other European powers may soon be pressed to emulate
The German parliament will likely pass a debt break exemption for defence spending on Tuesday. Freeing up the money is only the first step towards a more effective military
Washington is winding down its European security contributions and backing away from Ukraine. Europeans could learn from history as they wrestle with deploying a military presence to deter future Russian aggression
The Trump administration has withdrawn all military aid for Ukraine. Europeans can fill the void—but they need to act fast
Multilateral coalitions are increasingly important for combatting global challenges. Europeans have many eligible – and untapped – potential partner countries, but to stand out they need to ensure their offer is as grounded in these partners’ interests as their own
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act
European cohesion is bouncing back after crisis years. The EU Cohesion Monitor presents new insights on cohesion as an underestimated source of strength and collective action in the EU
The Coalition Explorer illustrates the expert opinions of more than 800 respondents who work on European policy and creates a visual understanding of the views held by Europe’s professional political class
The European Solidarity Tracker collects and displays instances of pan-European solidarity throughout the coronavirus crisis
Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR experts to unpack how Donald Trump’s presidency is reshaping Europe’s domestic politics and foreign policy
Ahead of the Munich Security Conference, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin talk German defence and the future of the country’s armed forces. They review the first…
In September 2024, the United Nation’s Summit of the Future is set to take place – a crucial moment to mend “eroded trust” between peoples,…
To achieve the ambitions of the European Green Deal, the European Commission insists that healthy oceans and a sustainable maritime economy are crucial. With rising…
Around 70 per cent of our planet is covered by the ocean, of which two-thirds fall beyond national jurisdiction. After decades of discussions and negotiations,…
The global space economy is worth a whopping $469 billion, and growing fast. Commercial interests are proliferating; more and more countries are launching satellites…
On 8 January 2023, following a contentious national election, protestors attacked government buildings in Brazil’s capital. The riots were preceded by years of online disinformation,…
Digital technologies are set to transform African economies. Yet, only 40 per cent of Africans accessed the internet in 2022 – well below the…
Beyond the UN formats, countries around the world are forging hundreds of bilateral and multilateral agreements to advance the clean energy transition. India has emerged…
Action on climate financing is long overdue. Inadequate mitigation and adaptation have already led to substantial loss and damage in the most vulnerable countries. But…
As leaders are about to take pivotal decisions for Ukraine’s fate at the NATO summit, join us for a discussion about pathways and policy options for Ukraine’s future and European Defence, based on ECFR’s latest public opinion. This webinar will delve into the nuanced public perceptions of the war in Ukraine in Ukraine itself, Switzerland, the UK as well as…
This webinar will provide a snapshot analysis of election results and their implications for Europe’s foreign policy and security agenda. Featuring perspectives from selected ECFR offices across European capitals, the discussion will explore election outcomes in key EU member states – Bulgaria, France, Germany and Italy – and examine how the political reconfigurations in Brussels,…
Am 8. April 2024 brach das 21-köpfige Vorkommando der Brigade Litauen nach Vilnius auf. Die Bundeswehrangehörigen werden in den nächsten Wochen und Monaten die erste dauerhafte Stationierung eines deutschen Kampfverbands dieser Größe außerhalb der Bundesrepublik vorbereiten. Mit diesem „Leuchtturmprojekt“ der Zeitenwende setzt Deutschland ein Zeichen der Bündnissolidarität und demonstriert seine Entschlossenheit, einen maßgeblichen Beitrag zu…
We will discuss Germany’s role in Europe and will reflect on how the new European order is viewed in Berlin
This Policy Dialogue will consider international reactions to the competing policy designs for CBAM, opportunities for cooperation with international partners and the role of international fora in its development such as the WTO and the forthcoming COP26
Der Checkpoint EXTRA findet als Kooperation zwischen der bpb und dem Berliner Büro des European Council on Foreign Relations statt
Rafael Loss on the technicalities of withdrawing from NATO
Rafael Loss on a possible US withdrawal from NATO
Rafael Loss on Macron’s nuclear strategy
Rafael Loss on Merz’s plans for the Bundeswehr
Rafael Loss on the impact of the war in Iran on Ukraine’s defence capabilities
