The insignificance of Putin’s latest nuclear bluster
Putin’s attention-seeking plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus underlines his commitment to nuclear risk manipulation – but his blackmail may be losing its potency
Experts & Staff
Rafael Loss
Coordinator for Pan-European Data Projects
Areas of expertise
German and European foreign and security policy; European integration; transatlantic relations; nuclear policy
Languages
German, English
Biography
Rafael Loss is the coordinator for pan-European data projects of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Re:shape Global Europe project, which seeks to develop new strategies for Europeans to understand and engage with the changing international order. He also works on German and European foreign policy, security and defence, climate policy, transatlantic relations, and nuclear policy and arms control.
Prior to joining ECFR in 2020, Loss was a research associate at the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Livermore, California. His essays and analyses have appeared in Internationale Politik Quarterly, War on the Rocks, and The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, among others.
Loss was a Fulbright fellow at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, where he earned an MA in international relations. He also holds a BA in political science from the University of Bremen.
Repair, replace, reimburse: Sustaining a European tank coalition for Ukraine
Military help for Ukraine is moving towards serious questions of logistics – but more countries still need to step forward. Here is how the next-stage coalition could look.
How to defeat Russia and prevent nuclear armageddon with one weird trick
We are not on a path to nuclear war – but strong deterrence measures from the West can help ensure that scenario remains unlikely
8 Nov
The role of Germany in Europe in times of war: Potential for German-Bulgarian cooperation
We will discuss Germany’s role in Europe and will reflect on how the new European order is viewed in Berlin
The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory
Ukraine needs to move to a new phase of the war if it is to reclaim its territory occupied by Russia. A European plan to supply Leopard tanks should be at the heart of this effort.
The cold man of Europe: Germany’s energy emergency
Decades of wilfully blind dependence on Russian gas have left Germany facing a bleak winter. German leaders could now have an opportunity to begin repairing the damage.
Staying power: How the EU can support NATO in eastern Europe
NATO should deter Russia by establishing a truly permanent presence in front-line states. The EU has a major role to play in this effort.
War and sovereignty: How the EU can enhance its ability to act
The EU has made insufficient progress in enhancing its sovereignty, particularly in security and defence. The union now needs to overcome internal differences to bolster its external ability to act.
European Sovereignty Index
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act.
Europe listens…Dr Togzhan Kassenova
As the EU builds up its global footprint, it’s crucial to avoid European naval gazing. Instead, Europe needs to engage partners around the world on…
Publications
Europe’s green moment: How to meet the climate challenge
Member states are not divided into two diametrically opposed camps. This makes the implementation of the European Green Deal an intricate puzzle – yet achievable.
The crisis that made the European Union: European cohesion in the age of covid
The pandemic poses a threat to European cohesion by increasing economic divides and undermining trust in the EU and national governments
Articles
Striking absence: Europe’s missile gap and how to close it
Europeans have been quick to enhance their missile defence capabilities. But to properly address the threat of Russia’s missiles and deter broader conflict, they need to complement defensive systems with offensive ones
Shapes of Multilateralisms Collection
This collection of nine insightful essays illuminates the strategies employed to advance European interests and values within this evolving global polity of overlapping cooperative frameworks
Multilateral nuclear disorder: Let’s rock till we explode
The global nuclear order has so far proven resilient in the face of Russia’s war on Ukraine. European engagement through the EU and NATO can help shore up this uneasy equilibrium
Multilateral space: A European space oddity
Competition among major space powers hinders multilateral action to protect access to outer space. The EU has a key role to play in promoting responsible behaviours and securing the use of space for all
The insignificance of Putin’s latest nuclear bluster
Putin’s attention-seeking plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus underlines his commitment to nuclear risk manipulation – but his blackmail may be losing its potency
Repair, replace, reimburse: Sustaining a European tank coalition for Ukraine
Military help for Ukraine is moving towards serious questions of logistics – but more countries still need to step forward. Here is how the next-stage coalition could look.
How to defeat Russia and prevent nuclear armageddon with one weird trick
We are not on a path to nuclear war – but strong deterrence measures from the West can help ensure that scenario remains unlikely
The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory
Ukraine needs to move to a new phase of the war if it is to reclaim its territory occupied by Russia. A European plan to supply Leopard tanks should be at the heart of this effort.
The cold man of Europe: Germany’s energy emergency
Decades of wilfully blind dependence on Russian gas have left Germany facing a bleak winter. German leaders could now have an opportunity to begin repairing the damage.
Staying power: How the EU can support NATO in eastern Europe
NATO should deter Russia by establishing a truly permanent presence in front-line states. The EU has a major role to play in this effort.
Specials
European Sovereignty Index
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act.
EU Cohesion Monitor
European cohesion is bouncing back after crisis years. The EU Cohesion Monitor presents new insights on cohesion as an underestimated source of strength and collective action in the EU.
EU Coalition Explorer
The Coalition Explorer illustrates the expert opinions of more than 800 respondents who work on European policy and creates a visual understanding of the views held by Europe’s professional political class
European Solidarity Tracker
The European Solidarity Tracker collects and displays instances of pan-European solidarity throughout the coronavirus crisis
Podcasts
Europe Listens: Governing outer space with Ruvimbo Samanga
The global space economy is worth a whopping $469 billion, and growing fast. Commercial interests are proliferating; more and more countries are launching satellites…
Europe Listens: Combatting online disinformation with Flora Rebello Arduini
On 8 January 2023, following a contentious national election, protestors attacked government buildings in Brazil’s capital. The riots were preceded by years of online disinformation,…
Europe Listens: Overcoming the global digital divide with Jane Munga
Digital technologies are set to transform African economies. Yet, only 40 per cent of Africans accessed the internet in 2022 – well below the…
Europe Listens: Advancing green tech partnerships with Dhanasree Jayaram
Beyond the UN formats, countries around the world are forging hundreds of bilateral and multilateral agreements to advance the clean energy transition. India has emerged…
Europe Listens: Overhauling climate finance with Avinash Persaud
Action on climate financing is long overdue. Inadequate mitigation and adaptation have already led to substantial loss and damage in the most vulnerable countries. But…
Europe Listens: Navigating climate diplomacy with Shauna Aminath
Climate change is an immediate existential threat to the coral islands that make up the Maldives, one of the lowest-lying countries in the world. Recent…
Europe listens…Dr Togzhan Kassenova
As the EU builds up its global footprint, it’s crucial to avoid European naval gazing. Instead, Europe needs to engage partners around the world on…
Events
8 Nov
The role of Germany in Europe in times of war: Potential for German-Bulgarian cooperation
We will discuss Germany’s role in Europe and will reflect on how the new European order is viewed in Berlin
1 Jul
Carbon border adjustment design: Opportunities for international cooperation
This Policy Dialogue will consider international reactions to the competing policy designs for CBAM, opportunities for cooperation with international partners and the role of international fora in its development such as the WTO and the forthcoming COP26
14 Jun
Deutschland vor der Wahl – Einschätzungen aus der Perspektive internationaler Politik
Der Checkpoint EXTRA findet als Kooperation zwischen der bpb und dem Berliner Büro des European Council on Foreign Relations statt
In the media
The U.S. Army has a pretty direct lever to increase the production of staple munitions like 155mm artillery shells
Rafael Loss compares the US’ and Europeans’ ability to boost munitions production
The Russian defense industry is turning out tanks, artillery, munitions 24/7, 365 days a year. This is not something where NATO has caught up yet
Rafael Loss assesses NATO countries’ efforts to boost their defence-industrial output
Train as you fight – troops have to exercise the kinds of scenarios they’re likely to encounter in a conflict
Rafael Loss describes Germany’s efforts to train and improve military logistics
Both the Bundeswehr and the ministry are very busy tweaking at the margins, but the bigger overhaul and the plan for a bigger overhaul are missing
Rafael Loss comments on the combat-readiness of the German military
A series of campaigns – European Parliament, local, presidential – are coming up that will continue to stir up anti-German feelings and populism
Rafael Loss analyses German-Polish relations in the aftermath of the Polish elections