Russia’s military manoeuvres at the Belarus border – a message to the West
The Kremlin knows that intervening militarily would lose it the goodwill of the Belarusian people. But it does not rule out a managed transition to a candidate of its choice.
Experts & Staff
Gustav Gressel
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Eastern Europe; Russia; armed conflict and military affairs; defence policy; missile defence; missile proliferation
Languages
German and English (fluent), Spanish and Polish (conversational)
Biography
Gustav Gressel is a senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Berlin office. His topics of focus include Russia, Eastern Europe, and defense policy.
Before joining ECFR, Gressel worked as a desk officer for international security policy and strategy in the Bureau for Security Policy of the Austrian Ministry of Defence from 2006 to 2014, and as a research fellow of the Commissioner for Strategic Studies with the Austrian MoD from 2003 to 2006. He was also a research fellow with the International Institute for Liberal Politics in Vienna. Before his academic career he served five years in the Austrian Armed Forces.
Gressel holds a PhD in Strategic Studies at the Faculty of Military Sciences at the National University of Public Service, Budapest and a Masters Degree in political science from Salzburg University. He is the author of numerous publications regarding security policy and strategic affairs and a frequent commentator on international affairs. His opinions have appeared in media such as the New York Times, the Guardian, Die Welt, NZZ, Bild, the Diplomat, New Eastern Europe, Foreign Policy, Gazeta Prawna, Rzeczpospolita, Kyiv Post, the Moscow Times, Capital, the Telegraph, the Economist, Newsweek, Deutsche Welle, RTL, al Jazeera, TVP, TRT, Polskie Radio, RFI, FM4, Ukraine Today, and Radio Free Europe.
Russia’s nuclear deterrence principles: what they imply, and what they do not
Russia’s nuclear policy has long been shrouded in secrecy. But a newly published presidential decree on nuclear deterrence clarifies some issues while still leaving ample room for speculation.
How a US withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty would benefit the Kremlin
A US withdrawal from the agreement would shift the blame from a non-compliant Moscow onto Washington, fuelling anti-Americanism and, perhaps, calls for a US military withdrawal from Europe
The EU’s strategic sovereignty starts in Eastern Europe
The real test of the EU’s power and its strategic sovereignty will be in how it deals with external problems – not least those in its neighbourhood
As covid-19 arrives, Putin disappears – Russia in the age of corona.
How is Russia dealing with covid-19? What impact does the pandemic have on the other underlying political issues in Russia – such as the change…
The sanctions straitjacket on Russia’s defence sector
Maintaining a self-sufficient defence-industrial complex has long been an uphill struggle for Russia – and recent sanctions have only steepened its climb
Russia’s Ukraine policy: Change to stay the same
The Kremlin is losing long-time Ukraine policy chief, Vladislav Surkov. But his successor has more in common with “Putin’s Rasputin” than first meets the eye.
Reshuffling Russia’s leadership – old wines in new bottles?
It came as a surprise when Russia’s government resigned just hours after Putin’s announced his plans for a possible referendum of constitutional changes. Host Mark…
Murder in Berlin: Not just Germany’s problem
The Tiergarten hitman travelling freely across the Schengen area should prompt reflection in European capitals, and greater demands of Berlin to act. But a pan-European response remains unforthcoming.
Putin’s Minsk maskirovka: Will the West ‘capitulate’?
Zelensky and EU leaders want the Normandy summit to show they are giving diplomacy a chance. But the risk all lies on their side, not Putin’s
Publications
In Europe’s defence: Why the EU needs a security compact with Ukraine
The EU should conclude a security compact with Ukraine. Such an agreement would help the country defend itself against Russia and maximise the effectiveness of European military support.
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea
Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them
Ambiguous alliance: Neutrality, opt-outs, and European defence
The EU’s work on its Strategic Compass should include debates on the special status states’ future role in European defence
Push back, contain, and engage: How the EU should approach relations with Russia
The bloc should reframe how it speaks of human rights and democracy, while developing closer security and military links with select neighbours
Promoting European strategic sovereignty in the eastern neighbourhood
The EU’s tendency to shy away from security issues has helped make covert operations and military threats Russia’s tools of choice in the region
The best defence: Why the EU should forge security compacts with its eastern neighbours
If the EU is to be more geopolitically influential in its own neighbourhood, it needs to start developing strategic security partnerships with key neighbours to the east and the south
Guarding the guardians: Ukraine’s security and judicial reforms under Zelensky
The EU, US, and NATO must ensure that these services remain high in the minds of the Zelensky administration and of Rada members
Protecting Europe against hybrid threats
Europe should pursue a ‘dual track’ approach of confrontation followed by dialogue with unfriendly cyber powers
Under the gun: Rearmament for arms control in Europe
Introduction During the cold war, arms control and disarmament agreements helped create a stable equilibrium between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, reducing the…
Articles
Repair, replace, reimburse: Sustaining a European tank coalition for Ukraine
Military help for Ukraine is moving towards serious questions of logistics – but more countries still need to step forward. Here is how the next-stage coalition could look.
The second year of Russia’s war: Scenarios for the Ukraine conflict in 2023
Russia is likely to make some progress in the first half of 2023, but it may lack the capability to hold on to its gains
More tortoise, less hare: How Europeans can ramp up military supplies for Ukraine in the long war
European leaders must shift from supplying only short-term military support for Ukraine to providing long-term strategic assistance
Mob unhappy: Why Russia is unlikely to emerge victorious in Ukraine
Putin’s mobilisation is unlikely to change the direction of the war – if Ukraine’s Western allies remain steadfast in their support
The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory
Ukraine needs to move to a new phase of the war if it is to reclaim its territory occupied by Russia. A European plan to supply Leopard tanks should be at the heart of this effort.
Shadow of the bomb: Russia’s nuclear threats
Russia is the first state to use nuclear threats as part of a war of expansion. Unless it loses in Ukraine, the world will become a far more dangerous place.
Moldova next? How Europe should react to Russia’s implicit threat
Europeans should urgently increase Frontex assistance to Moldova, enhance intelligence cooperation, and consider positioning NATO units based in Romania closer to the country’s border
Ukraine: Time for the West to prepare for the long war
Russia is drawing on its Syria playbook and regrouping for a long war to seize the whole of Ukraine. The West needs to take action now to supply Ukraine with Western equipment.
Out of the dark: Reinventing European defence cooperation
Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine has convinced many European states to rebuild their militaries. In doing so, they should initially focus on readiness, capability gaps, and joint equipment procurement and research.
Combined farces: Russia’s early military failures in Ukraine
The Kremlin’s secrecy in waging war on Ukraine has created severe problems on the battlefield. Inadequate force generation seems responsible for many of these problems.
Podcasts
The Leopards are free!
Mark Leonard, Camille Grand, Gustav Gressel, Jana Puglierin, and Jeremy Shapiro discuss what the Leopard 2 decision means for the war in Ukraine
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
European defence reloaded
What are the biggest challenges in building greater European sovereignty in defence? And how will this effort be funded?
War in Ukraine
As the situation at the Ukrainian border escalates, Mark Leonard and his guests talk about the recent developments and the state of play at the ground
The Russian troop build-up near Ukraine
How serious is the Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border? And what should NATO do about it?
As covid-19 arrives, Putin disappears – Russia in the age of corona.
How is Russia dealing with covid-19? What impact does the pandemic have on the other underlying political issues in Russia – such as the change…
Reshuffling Russia’s leadership – old wines in new bottles?
It came as a surprise when Russia’s government resigned just hours after Putin’s announced his plans for a possible referendum of constitutional changes. Host Mark…
Reaching out to Russia – joining hands or getting the mitten?
In this week’s podcast, Mark Leonard, Gustav Gressel and Kadri Liik analyse Macron’s plans and ideas for recreating the European security order, an initiative which…
Protecting Europe against hybrid threats
In the third episode of ECFR’s summer series on strategic sovereignty, Mark Leonard talks to Gustav Gressel, Acting Director of the Wider Europe programme and…
Mark Leonard’s World in 30 Minutes: Are Europe’s elections still safe?
ECFR’s director Mark Leonard speaks with ECFR Policy Fellows Stefan Soesanto, Kadri Liik and Gustav Gressel on Russia's interferences in Western politics. The podcast was…
Events
22 May
European defence: Expectations and demands of non-EU partners
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
5 Oct
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in the Black Sea
What can the EU and NATO do to reduce the risk of escalation in the region?
19 Apr
The crisis in Ukraine: How to solve the Minsk conundrum
What are the intentions behind the military build-up? How likely are the chances of escalation beyond the Donbas? How should the EU respond?
In the media
Ukraine will receive the export variant of the Abrams, like those in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iraq
Gressel’s analysis on the restrictions to US military support to Ukraine
Gustav Gressel on the status of the German Bundeswehr and the special fund allocated to it
Russia is in need of at least one victory – a small victory, even if it ruins everything in Bachmut and simply kills every civilian there
Gustav Gressel comments on the battle for Bachmut
Politicians did not believe, from the government to the opposition, that there would be a full invasion
Gustav Gressel explains why no one wanted to hear the warnings in Kyiv in 2021
If Europeans fail in their collective effort to mobilise even 62 Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine […] it would be nothing less than a declaration of strategic bankruptcy
Gustav Gressel, Rafael Loss and Jana Puglierin being quoted on their Leopard Plan