Europeans should urgently increase Frontex assistance to Moldova, enhance intelligence cooperation, and consider positioning NATO units based in Romania closer to the country’s border
Russia is drawing on its Syria playbook and regrouping for a long war to seize the whole of Ukraine. The West needs to take action now to supply Ukraine with Western equipment.
Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine has convinced many European states to rebuild their militaries. In doing so, they should initially focus on readiness, capability gaps, and joint equipment procurement and research.
The Kremlin’s secrecy in waging war on Ukraine has created severe problems on the battlefield. Inadequate force generation seems responsible for many of these problems.
The coming days may determine whether Ukraine can preserve large parts of its army as a functional fighting force. In this crucial period, every shred of military support will count.
The Kremlin instrumentalises fear of nuclear war to make others bow to its ambitions. The West and Russia have often supported different factions in conflicts without sliding into a nuclear conflict.
Russia still hopes to force Ukraine to accept its interpretation of the Minsk agreement. There is no evidence that it has abandoned the idea of achieving this through a large-scale military offensive.
Russia’s preparations for a full-scale war in Ukraine provide it with plenty of coercive options short of a massive invasion. Ukraine and the US may have different assessments of the threat, but they both need to prepare for all likely scenarios.
Regardless of whether Russia launches another major offensive against Ukraine, Belarus’s territory will increasingly become a source of military threats to all its western neighbours – not just Ukraine
Many European leaders do not seem to grasp the seriousness of this moment in the Ukrainian conflict. Unless the West makes a greater effort to counter Russian military coercion, there is no guarantee that Russia will stop with Ukraine.