Decisive days: How the West can help Ukraine survive
The coming days may determine whether Ukraine can preserve large parts of its army as a functional fighting force. In this crucial period, every shred of military support will count.
Experts & Staff
Gustav Gressel
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Eastern Europe; Russia; armed conflict and military affairs; defence policy; missile defence; missile proliferation
Languages
German and English (fluent), Spanish and Polish (conversational)
Biography
Gustav Gressel is a senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Berlin office. His topics of focus include Russia, Eastern Europe, and defense policy.
Before joining ECFR, Gressel worked as a desk officer for international security policy and strategy in the Bureau for Security Policy of the Austrian Ministry of Defence from 2006 to 2014, and as a research fellow of the Commissioner for Strategic Studies with the Austrian MoD from 2003 to 2006. He was also a research fellow with the International Institute for Liberal Politics in Vienna. Before his academic career he served five years in the Austrian Armed Forces.
Gressel holds a PhD in Strategic Studies at the Faculty of Military Sciences at the National University of Public Service, Budapest and a Masters Degree in political science from Salzburg University. He is the author of numerous publications regarding security policy and strategic affairs and a frequent commentator on international affairs. His opinions have appeared in media such as the New York Times, the Guardian, Die Welt, NZZ, Bild, the Diplomat, New Eastern Europe, Foreign Policy, Gazeta Prawna, Rzeczpospolita, Kyiv Post, the Moscow Times, Capital, the Telegraph, the Economist, Newsweek, Deutsche Welle, RTL, al Jazeera, TVP, TRT, Polskie Radio, RFI, FM4, Ukraine Today, and Radio Free Europe.
Signal and noise: What Russia’s nuclear threat means for Europe
The Kremlin instrumentalises fear of nuclear war to make others bow to its ambitions. The West and Russia have often supported different factions in conflicts without sliding into a nuclear conflict.
War in Ukraine
As the situation at the Ukrainian border escalates, Mark Leonard and his guests talk about the recent developments and the state of play at the ground
Russian to conclusions: The Kremlin’s unfounded claims of de-escalation in Ukraine
Russia still hopes to force Ukraine to accept its interpretation of the Minsk agreement. There is no evidence that it has abandoned the idea of achieving this through a large-scale military offensive.
Friendly arguments: Biden’s and Zelensky’s disagreement on the threat from Russia
Russia’s preparations for a full-scale war in Ukraine provide it with plenty of coercive options short of a massive invasion. Ukraine and the US may have different assessments of the threat, but they both need to prepare for all likely scenarios.
Bonfire of sovereignty: Russian tanks in Belarus
Regardless of whether Russia launches another major offensive against Ukraine, Belarus’s territory will increasingly become a source of military threats to all its western neighbours – not just Ukraine
Why Russia could invade Ukraine again
Many European leaders do not seem to grasp the seriousness of this moment in the Ukrainian conflict. Unless the West makes a greater effort to counter Russian military coercion, there is no guarantee that Russia will stop with Ukraine.
The Russian troop build-up near Ukraine
How serious is the Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border? And what should NATO do about it?
Russia’s military movements: What they could mean for Ukraine, Europe, and NATO
Russia is mobilising its forces, but much more covertly than in the past. Moscow’s belief that the EU and US will not step in to protect Ukraine could lead it to take direct military action.
No quiet on the eastern front: The migration crisis engineered by Belarus
The EU should show the Lukashenka regime that it will no longer tolerate the weaponisation of migration. As with any form of blackmail, it would be senseless and dangerous to make concessions – because the aggressor will only demand more.
Publications
In Europe’s defence: Why the EU needs a security compact with Ukraine
The EU should conclude a security compact with Ukraine. Such an agreement would help the country defend itself against Russia and maximise the effectiveness of European military support.
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea
Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them
Ambiguous alliance: Neutrality, opt-outs, and European defence
The EU’s work on its Strategic Compass should include debates on the special status states’ future role in European defence
Push back, contain, and engage: How the EU should approach relations with Russia
The bloc should reframe how it speaks of human rights and democracy, while developing closer security and military links with select neighbours
Promoting European strategic sovereignty in the eastern neighbourhood
The EU’s tendency to shy away from security issues has helped make covert operations and military threats Russia’s tools of choice in the region
The best defence: Why the EU should forge security compacts with its eastern neighbours
If the EU is to be more geopolitically influential in its own neighbourhood, it needs to start developing strategic security partnerships with key neighbours to the east and the south
Guarding the guardians: Ukraine’s security and judicial reforms under Zelensky
The EU, US, and NATO must ensure that these services remain high in the minds of the Zelensky administration and of Rada members
Protecting Europe against hybrid threats
Europe should pursue a ‘dual track’ approach of confrontation followed by dialogue with unfriendly cyber powers
Under the gun: Rearmament for arms control in Europe
Introduction During the cold war, arms control and disarmament agreements helped create a stable equilibrium between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, reducing the…
Articles
The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory
Ukraine needs to move to a new phase of the war if it is to reclaim its territory occupied by Russia. A European plan to supply Leopard tanks should be at the heart of this effort.
Shadow of the bomb: Russia’s nuclear threats
Russia is the first state to use nuclear threats as part of a war of expansion. Unless it loses in Ukraine, the world will become a far more dangerous place.
Moldova next? How Europe should react to Russia’s implicit threat
Europeans should urgently increase Frontex assistance to Moldova, enhance intelligence cooperation, and consider positioning NATO units based in Romania closer to the country’s border
Ukraine: Time for the West to prepare for the long war
Russia is drawing on its Syria playbook and regrouping for a long war to seize the whole of Ukraine. The West needs to take action now to supply Ukraine with Western equipment.
Out of the dark: Reinventing European defence cooperation
Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine has convinced many European states to rebuild their militaries. In doing so, they should initially focus on readiness, capability gaps, and joint equipment procurement and research.
Combined farces: Russia’s early military failures in Ukraine
The Kremlin’s secrecy in waging war on Ukraine has created severe problems on the battlefield. Inadequate force generation seems responsible for many of these problems.
Decisive days: How the West can help Ukraine survive
The coming days may determine whether Ukraine can preserve large parts of its army as a functional fighting force. In this crucial period, every shred of military support will count.
Signal and noise: What Russia’s nuclear threat means for Europe
The Kremlin instrumentalises fear of nuclear war to make others bow to its ambitions. The West and Russia have often supported different factions in conflicts without sliding into a nuclear conflict.
Russian to conclusions: The Kremlin’s unfounded claims of de-escalation in Ukraine
Russia still hopes to force Ukraine to accept its interpretation of the Minsk agreement. There is no evidence that it has abandoned the idea of achieving this through a large-scale military offensive.
Friendly arguments: Biden’s and Zelensky’s disagreement on the threat from Russia
Russia’s preparations for a full-scale war in Ukraine provide it with plenty of coercive options short of a massive invasion. Ukraine and the US may have different assessments of the threat, but they both need to prepare for all likely scenarios.
Podcasts
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
European defence reloaded
What are the biggest challenges in building greater European sovereignty in defence? And how will this effort be funded?
War in Ukraine
As the situation at the Ukrainian border escalates, Mark Leonard and his guests talk about the recent developments and the state of play at the ground
The Russian troop build-up near Ukraine
How serious is the Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border? And what should NATO do about it?
As covid-19 arrives, Putin disappears – Russia in the age of corona.
How is Russia dealing with covid-19? What impact does the pandemic have on the other underlying political issues in Russia – such as the change…
Reshuffling Russia’s leadership – old wines in new bottles?
It came as a surprise when Russia’s government resigned just hours after Putin’s announced his plans for a possible referendum of constitutional changes. Host Mark…
Reaching out to Russia – joining hands or getting the mitten?
In this week’s podcast, Mark Leonard, Gustav Gressel and Kadri Liik analyse Macron’s plans and ideas for recreating the European security order, an initiative which…
Protecting Europe against hybrid threats
In the third episode of ECFR’s summer series on strategic sovereignty, Mark Leonard talks to Gustav Gressel, Acting Director of the Wider Europe programme and…
Mark Leonard’s World in 30 Minutes: Are Europe’s elections still safe?
ECFR’s director Mark Leonard speaks with ECFR Policy Fellows Stefan Soesanto, Kadri Liik and Gustav Gressel on Russia's interferences in Western politics. The podcast was…
ECFR’s World in 30 Minutes: Ukraine’s 25th anniversary of independence
ECFR’s director Mark Leonard speaks with experts Andrew Wilson, Fredrik Wesslau and Gustav Gressel, about rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbass, the Minsk agreement,…
Events
5 Oct
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in the Black Sea
What can the EU and NATO do to reduce the risk of escalation in the region?
19 Apr
The crisis in Ukraine: How to solve the Minsk conundrum
What are the intentions behind the military build-up? How likely are the chances of escalation beyond the Donbas? How should the EU respond?
In the media
This could be one of the many attempts to make the West nervous and influence public opinion
Gustav Gressel comments on the video showing an alleged nuclear convoy on its way to the front in Ukraine
Russia is betting on slow progress on the ground and expects rising energy prices and the wave of refugees to weaken Western public support for Ukraine
Gustav Gressel fears that the war in Ukraine “will probably last many years.”
His own reality has become the determining factor
Gustav Gressel on Putin’s propaganda and the “annexation” of parts of Ukraine to Russia
I know that people paid by Russia are proactively calling to spread certain theories
Gustav Gressel talks to WELT about possible circumstances behind the gas leaks in the Baltic Sea pipelines
There are parallels, of course, also in Syria…. (…) But the aim was not to exterminate the Syrians as a people. They did not say: Syria must not exist…
Gustav Gressel believes that Russia’s war against Ukraine is different from Russia’s other wars