Military lessons from Nagorno-Karabakh: Reason for Europe to worry
The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war holds important lessons for European defence. European governments should study it urgently.
Experts & Staff
Gustav Gressel
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Eastern Europe; Russia; armed conflict and military affairs; defence policy; missile defence; missile proliferation
Languages
German and English (fluent), Spanish and Polish (conversational)
Biography
Gustav Gressel is a senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Berlin office. His topics of focus include Russia, Eastern Europe, and defense policy.
Before joining ECFR, Gressel worked as a desk officer for international security policy and strategy in the Bureau for Security Policy of the Austrian Ministry of Defence from 2006 to 2014, and as a research fellow of the Commissioner for Strategic Studies with the Austrian MoD from 2003 to 2006. He was also a research fellow with the International Institute for Liberal Politics in Vienna. Before his academic career he served five years in the Austrian Armed Forces.
Gressel holds a PhD in Strategic Studies at the Faculty of Military Sciences at the National University of Public Service, Budapest and a Masters Degree in political science from Salzburg University. He is the author of numerous publications regarding security policy and strategic affairs and a frequent commentator on international affairs. His opinions have appeared in media such as the New York Times, the Guardian, Die Welt, NZZ, Bild, the Diplomat, New Eastern Europe, Foreign Policy, Gazeta Prawna, Rzeczpospolita, Kyiv Post, the Moscow Times, Capital, the Telegraph, the Economist, Newsweek, Deutsche Welle, RTL, al Jazeera, TVP, TRT, Polskie Radio, RFI, FM4, Ukraine Today, and Radio Free Europe.
The best defence: Why the EU should forge security compacts with its eastern neighbours
If the EU is to be more geopolitically influential in its own neighbourhood, it needs to start developing strategic security partnerships with key neighbours to the east and the south
Belarus and Armenia: How Russia handles uprisings
Russia’s goal in its neighbourhood is to regain influence, not to be surrounded by neutral, self-sufficient buffer states
The slow dismantling of the Belarusian state
While this revolutionary movement did not start as a geopolitical endeavour, it will certainly end as one
Russia’s military manoeuvres at the Belarus border – a message to the West
The Kremlin knows that intervening militarily would lose it the goodwill of the Belarusian people. But it does not rule out a managed transition to a candidate of its choice.
Russia’s nuclear deterrence principles: what they imply, and what they do not
Russia’s nuclear policy has long been shrouded in secrecy. But a newly published presidential decree on nuclear deterrence clarifies some issues while still leaving ample room for speculation.
How a US withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty would benefit the Kremlin
A US withdrawal from the agreement would shift the blame from a non-compliant Moscow onto Washington, fuelling anti-Americanism and, perhaps, calls for a US military withdrawal from Europe
The EU’s strategic sovereignty starts in Eastern Europe
The real test of the EU’s power and its strategic sovereignty will be in how it deals with external problems – not least those in its neighbourhood
As covid-19 arrives, Putin disappears – Russia in the age of corona.
How is Russia dealing with covid-19? What impact does the pandemic have on the other underlying political issues in Russia – such as the change…
The sanctions straitjacket on Russia’s defence sector
Maintaining a self-sufficient defence-industrial complex has long been an uphill struggle for Russia – and recent sanctions have only steepened its climb
Publications
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea
Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them
Ambiguous alliance: Neutrality, opt-outs, and European defence
The EU’s work on its Strategic Compass should include debates on the special status states’ future role in European defence
Push back, contain, and engage: How the EU should approach relations with Russia
The bloc should reframe how it speaks of human rights and democracy, while developing closer security and military links with select neighbours
Promoting European strategic sovereignty in the eastern neighbourhood
The EU’s tendency to shy away from security issues has helped make covert operations and military threats Russia’s tools of choice in the region
The best defence: Why the EU should forge security compacts with its eastern neighbours
If the EU is to be more geopolitically influential in its own neighbourhood, it needs to start developing strategic security partnerships with key neighbours to the east and the south
Guarding the guardians: Ukraine’s security and judicial reforms under Zelensky
The EU, US, and NATO must ensure that these services remain high in the minds of the Zelensky administration and of Rada members
Protecting Europe against hybrid threats
Europe should pursue a ‘dual track’ approach of confrontation followed by dialogue with unfriendly cyber powers
Under the gun: Rearmament for arms control in Europe
Introduction During the cold war, arms control and disarmament agreements helped create a stable equilibrium between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, reducing the…
Fellow travellers: Russia, anti-Westernism, and Europe’s political parties
Anti-Western elements, exploitable by the Kremlin, exist not only on the fringes of European politics, but reach right into the heart of established parties
The great unravelling: four doomsday scenarios for Europe’s Russia policy
There is no room for complacency in Europe’s stance towards Russia and Ukraine
Articles
Something for something: Biden, Zelensky, and America’s pre-eminence in Ukraine
Faced with a Russia that is still conducting a war in Ukraine and weaponising gas, Washington’s new deal with Kyiv could provide a real boost to Ukrainian defence and intelligence
Germany’s corruption scandals: How to limit authoritarian influence in the EU
Germany’s recent corruption scandals are as much about the health of democracy in Germany and the EU as they are simply questions of money
War of unreality: Why Russia is threatening to escalate the Ukraine conflict
European governments have yet to learn a key lesson from the war in Ukraine. The alternative reality the Kremlin lives in is becoming increasingly dangerous.
Dead-end pragmatism: Germany’s Russia strategy after Merkel
Berlin has no will to rethink its long-held assumption that it can somehow improve Europe-Russia relations by engaging with Moscow from a position of weakness and betting on the benefits of long-term economic ties
Military lessons from Nagorno-Karabakh: Reason for Europe to worry
The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war holds important lessons for European defence. European governments should study it urgently.
Belarus and Armenia: How Russia handles uprisings
Russia’s goal in its neighbourhood is to regain influence, not to be surrounded by neutral, self-sufficient buffer states
The slow dismantling of the Belarusian state
While this revolutionary movement did not start as a geopolitical endeavour, it will certainly end as one
Russia’s military manoeuvres at the Belarus border – a message to the West
The Kremlin knows that intervening militarily would lose it the goodwill of the Belarusian people. But it does not rule out a managed transition to a candidate of its choice.
Russia’s nuclear deterrence principles: what they imply, and what they do not
Russia’s nuclear policy has long been shrouded in secrecy. But a newly published presidential decree on nuclear deterrence clarifies some issues while still leaving ample room for speculation.
How a US withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty would benefit the Kremlin
A US withdrawal from the agreement would shift the blame from a non-compliant Moscow onto Washington, fuelling anti-Americanism and, perhaps, calls for a US military withdrawal from Europe
Podcasts
As covid-19 arrives, Putin disappears – Russia in the age of corona.
How is Russia dealing with covid-19? What impact does the pandemic have on the other underlying political issues in Russia – such as the change…
Reshuffling Russia’s leadership – old wines in new bottles?
It came as a surprise when Russia’s government resigned just hours after Putin’s announced his plans for a possible referendum of constitutional changes. Host Mark…
Reaching out to Russia – joining hands or getting the mitten?
In this week’s podcast, Mark Leonard, Gustav Gressel and Kadri Liik analyse Macron’s plans and ideas for recreating the European security order, an initiative which…
Protecting Europe against hybrid threats
In the third episode of ECFR’s summer series on strategic sovereignty, Mark Leonard talks to Gustav Gressel, Acting Director of the Wider Europe programme and…
Mark Leonard’s World in 30 Minutes: Are Europe’s elections still safe?
ECFR’s director Mark Leonard speaks with ECFR Policy Fellows Stefan Soesanto, Kadri Liik and Gustav Gressel on Russia's interferences in Western politics. The podcast was…
ECFR’s World in 30 Minutes: Ukraine’s 25th anniversary of independence
ECFR’s director Mark Leonard speaks with experts Andrew Wilson, Fredrik Wesslau and Gustav Gressel, about rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbass, the Minsk agreement,…
In the media
If the Russians do not depend on Ukraine as a transit country, they are free to destabilize it by other means […] All these other means would more or less end up on Washington’s desk
Gustav Gressel comments on the fears that Nord Stream 2 could liberate Russia to invade Ukraine.
I believe that this willingness is lacking in every German government, both the old one, the present one and the future one
Gustav Gressel is sceptical of whether a traffic light coalition will mean a real departure in foreign and security policy
he problem is that we have two well functioning institutions in Ukraine that are under siege by oligarchs, but also by forces within the president’s own party, which is the National Anti-corruption
Gustav Gressel comments on the implementation of judicial reforms and anti-corruption measures in Ukraine
It is only a matter of time before the German energy regulators give their seal of approval
Gustav Gressel quoted on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project
Gustav Gressel is quoted by France 24 on Russia’s missiles