The crisis in Ukraine: How to solve the Minsk conundrum

What are the intentions behind the military build-up? How likely are the chances of escalation beyond the Donbas? How should the EU respond?

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Guests

Iryna Solonenko, Senior Fellow, LibMod, Berlin

Maxim Samorukov, Policy Fellow, Carnegie Center, Moscow

Gustav Gressel, Senior Policy Fellow, Wider Europe programme, ECFR

Chaired by

Joanna Hosa, Deputy Director, Wider Europe programme, ECFR

Since the end of March, Russia has been building up military forces alongside its border with Ukraine. Disagreements between Moscow and Kyiv (and the West) about the end-state and a way to implement the Minsk-agreement have existed since the very signing of the treaty. Yet, tensions between the two sides have grown over the past three months. What are the perceptions of the situation in Moscow, Kyiv and in the EU? What are the intentions behind the military build-up? How likely are the chances of escalation beyond the Donbas? How should the EU respond? And finally, how to solve the Minsk-conundrum: an agreement that is both un-implementable (because of its vagueness) but also indispensable (because the post-hot war status quo rests on it)?