The Russian troop build-up near Ukraine
How serious is the Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border? And what should NATO do about it?
Experts & Staff
Gustav Gressel
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Eastern Europe; Russia; armed conflict and military affairs; defence policy; missile defence; missile proliferation
Languages
German and English (fluent), Spanish and Polish (conversational)
Biography
Gustav Gressel is a senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Berlin office. His topics of focus include Russia, Eastern Europe, and defense policy.
Before joining ECFR, Gressel worked as a desk officer for international security policy and strategy in the Bureau for Security Policy of the Austrian Ministry of Defence from 2006 to 2014, and as a research fellow of the Commissioner for Strategic Studies with the Austrian MoD from 2003 to 2006. He was also a research fellow with the International Institute for Liberal Politics in Vienna. Before his academic career he served five years in the Austrian Armed Forces.
Gressel holds a PhD in Strategic Studies at the Faculty of Military Sciences at the National University of Public Service, Budapest and a Masters Degree in political science from Salzburg University. He is the author of numerous publications regarding security policy and strategic affairs and a frequent commentator on international affairs. His opinions have appeared in media such as the New York Times, the Guardian, Die Welt, NZZ, Bild, the Diplomat, New Eastern Europe, Foreign Policy, Gazeta Prawna, Rzeczpospolita, Kyiv Post, the Moscow Times, Capital, the Telegraph, the Economist, Newsweek, Deutsche Welle, RTL, al Jazeera, TVP, TRT, Polskie Radio, RFI, FM4, Ukraine Today, and Radio Free Europe.
Russia’s military movements: What they could mean for Ukraine, Europe, and NATO
Russia is mobilising its forces, but much more covertly than in the past. Moscow’s belief that the EU and US will not step in to protect Ukraine could lead it to take direct military action.
No quiet on the eastern front: The migration crisis engineered by Belarus
The EU should show the Lukashenka regime that it will no longer tolerate the weaponisation of migration. As with any form of blackmail, it would be senseless and dangerous to make concessions – because the aggressor will only demand more.
5 Oct
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in the Black Sea
What can the EU and NATO do to reduce the risk of escalation in the region?
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea
Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them
Something for something: Biden, Zelensky, and America’s pre-eminence in Ukraine
Faced with a Russia that is still conducting a war in Ukraine and weaponising gas, Washington’s new deal with Kyiv could provide a real boost to Ukrainian defence and intelligence
Ambiguous alliance: Neutrality, opt-outs, and European defence
The EU’s work on its Strategic Compass should include debates on the special status states’ future role in European defence
Germany’s corruption scandals: How to limit authoritarian influence in the EU
Germany’s recent corruption scandals are as much about the health of democracy in Germany and the EU as they are simply questions of money
War of unreality: Why Russia is threatening to escalate the Ukraine conflict
European governments have yet to learn a key lesson from the war in Ukraine. The alternative reality the Kremlin lives in is becoming increasingly dangerous.
19 Apr
The crisis in Ukraine: How to solve the Minsk conundrum
What are the intentions behind the military build-up? How likely are the chances of escalation beyond the Donbas? How should the EU respond?
Publications
Sustain and prosper: How Europeans can support Ukraine
The EU and its member states need to make an urgent commitment to Ukraine’s security and long-term commitment to its European future. If they do not, they risk alienating the very Ukrainians they seek to support
In Europe’s defence: Why the EU needs a security compact with Ukraine
The EU should conclude a security compact with Ukraine. Such an agreement would help the country defend itself against Russia and maximise the effectiveness of European military support.
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea
Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them
Ambiguous alliance: Neutrality, opt-outs, and European defence
The EU’s work on its Strategic Compass should include debates on the special status states’ future role in European defence
Push back, contain, and engage: How the EU should approach relations with Russia
The bloc should reframe how it speaks of human rights and democracy, while developing closer security and military links with select neighbours
Promoting European strategic sovereignty in the eastern neighbourhood
The EU’s tendency to shy away from security issues has helped make covert operations and military threats Russia’s tools of choice in the region
The best defence: Why the EU should forge security compacts with its eastern neighbours
If the EU is to be more geopolitically influential in its own neighbourhood, it needs to start developing strategic security partnerships with key neighbours to the east and the south
Guarding the guardians: Ukraine’s security and judicial reforms under Zelensky
The EU, US, and NATO must ensure that these services remain high in the minds of the Zelensky administration and of Rada members
Protecting Europe against hybrid threats
Europe should pursue a ‘dual track’ approach of confrontation followed by dialogue with unfriendly cyber powers
Articles
After Nagorno-Karabakh: How Europeans can strengthen Armenia’s resilience
The question of Nagorno-Karabakh is unlikely to be discussed any time soon after Azerbaijan took control of the region in September. Europeans should now diplomatically engage with all sides to prevent further escalation, while supporting Armenia’s domestic political stability and strengthening its defence capabilities
The war of opportunity: How Azerbaijan’s offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh is shifting the geopolitics of the South Caucasus
Geopolitical shifts created an opportune moment for Azerbaijan to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh. With the current ceasefire on shaky ground, the EU needs to use the leverage it has to prevent further escalation
Warlords don’t end wars: Why Wagner will not solve the Russia problem
The Wagner mutiny showed that Western states cannot expect a challenge from within to end Russia’s war
The case for sending fighter jets to Ukraine
Ukraine needs fighter jets to counter Russia’s changing military approach. The US should learn from last year’s delay over tank deliveries and approve their release as soon as possible
Repair, replace, reimburse: Sustaining a European tank coalition for Ukraine
Military help for Ukraine is moving towards serious questions of logistics – but more countries still need to step forward. Here is how the next-stage coalition could look.
The second year of Russia’s war: Scenarios for the Ukraine conflict in 2023
Russia is likely to make some progress in the first half of 2023, but it may lack the capability to hold on to its gains
More tortoise, less hare: How Europeans can ramp up military supplies for Ukraine in the long war
European leaders must shift from supplying only short-term military support for Ukraine to providing long-term strategic assistance
Mob unhappy: Why Russia is unlikely to emerge victorious in Ukraine
Putin’s mobilisation is unlikely to change the direction of the war – if Ukraine’s Western allies remain steadfast in their support
The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory
Ukraine needs to move to a new phase of the war if it is to reclaim its territory occupied by Russia. A European plan to supply Leopard tanks should be at the heart of this effort.
Shadow of the bomb: Russia’s nuclear threats
Russia is the first state to use nuclear threats as part of a war of expansion. Unless it loses in Ukraine, the world will become a far more dangerous place.
Podcasts
The consequences of the war in Gaza for Ukraine
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Gustav Gressel and Kirill Shamiev to talk about the consequences of the war in Gaza for Ukraine
The case for sending fighter jets to Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Gustav Gressel to talk about sending fighter jets to Ukraine
The Leopards are free!
Mark Leonard, Camille Grand, Gustav Gressel, Jana Puglierin, and Jeremy Shapiro discuss what the Leopard 2 decision means for the war in Ukraine
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
European defence reloaded
What are the biggest challenges in building greater European sovereignty in defence? And how will this effort be funded?
War in Ukraine
As the situation at the Ukrainian border escalates, Mark Leonard and his guests talk about the recent developments and the state of play at the ground
The Russian troop build-up near Ukraine
How serious is the Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border? And what should NATO do about it?
As covid-19 arrives, Putin disappears – Russia in the age of corona.
How is Russia dealing with covid-19? What impact does the pandemic have on the other underlying political issues in Russia – such as the change…
Reshuffling Russia’s leadership – old wines in new bottles?
It came as a surprise when Russia’s government resigned just hours after Putin’s announced his plans for a possible referendum of constitutional changes. Host Mark…
Reaching out to Russia – joining hands or getting the mitten?
In this week’s podcast, Mark Leonard, Gustav Gressel and Kadri Liik analyse Macron’s plans and ideas for recreating the European security order, an initiative which…
Events
22 May
European defence: Expectations and demands of non-EU partners
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
5 Oct
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in the Black Sea
What can the EU and NATO do to reduce the risk of escalation in the region?
19 Apr
The crisis in Ukraine: How to solve the Minsk conundrum
What are the intentions behind the military build-up? How likely are the chances of escalation beyond the Donbas? How should the EU respond?
In the media
Gustav Gressel discusses whether Ukraine can survive the war
In this sense, we expect the conflict to go on much longer than this winter
Gustav Gressel presumes that the war in Israel and Gaza will go on for a while,
Gustav Gressel weighs on the current state of the Russian offensive in the war in Ukraine
Gustav Gressel comments on the fighting around Ukrainian Avdiivka
Gustav Gressel comments on the delivery of Abrams tanks to Ukraine and on the future of the war