One year after MH17: the Kremlin’s responsibility
The accidental firing on the airliner by Russian air-defence missiles are the most conceivable explanation to the downing of MH17
Experts & Staff
Gustav Gressel
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Eastern Europe; Russia; armed conflict and military affairs; defence policy; missile defence; missile proliferation
Languages
German and English (fluent), Spanish and Polish (conversational)
Biography
Gustav Gressel is a senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Berlin office. His topics of focus include Russia, Eastern Europe, and defence policy.
Before joining ECFR, Gressel worked as a desk officer for international security policy and strategy in the Bureau for Security Policy of the Austrian Ministry of Defence from 2006 to 2014, and as a research fellow of the Commissioner for Strategic Studies with the Austrian MoD from 2003 to 2006. He was also a research fellow with the International Institute for Liberal Politics in Vienna. Before his academic career he served five years in the Austrian Armed Forces.
Gressel holds a PhD in Strategic Studies at the Faculty of Military Sciences at the National University of Public Service, Budapest and a Masters Degree in political science from Salzburg University. He is the author of numerous publications regarding security policy and strategic affairs and a frequent commentator on international affairs. His opinions have appeared in media such as the New York Times, the Guardian, Die Welt, NZZ, Bild, the Diplomat, New Eastern Europe, Foreign Policy, Gazeta Prawna, Rzeczpospolita, Kyiv Post, the Moscow Times, Capital, the Telegraph, the Economist, Newsweek, Deutsche Welle, RTL, al Jazeera, TVP, TRT, Polskie Radio, RFI, FM4, Ukraine Today, and Radio Free Europe.
Berlin and the Minsk trap
Almost five months on since Minsk II was agreed, it is clear that none of the early conditions have been met
War and peace in Berlin’s minds: threat inflation and denial in Germany
Why do Germans so strongly oppose military intervention in defence of NATO?
The State of the War
The situation for civilians in Eastern Ukraine is dire
How Riga was perceived in Berlin
Many in Eastern Europe viewed the Riga Summit as a disappointment, but what did Germany make of it?
Weak government, strong society
In post-Maidan Ukraine, failing governmental action is substituted by voluntary work. While the Ukrainian state is failing in many aspects, Ukrainian society is very strong.
Kyiv and the regions
Ukraine has been an over-centralised state since its independence from the Soviet Union, but now the notion of “decentralisation” has taken hold in even tiny villages
The politics of history: how the perception of WW II shapes political debates on Eastern Europe
Peace in Europe can be based only on equal rights to social, political, and economic development for all
Germany and the Eastern Partnership: the view from Berlin
Germany will probably try to hit all the brakes it can find at Riga
Russia’s military options in Ukraine
A resumption of Russian military provocations is likely, to keep Ukraine destabilised and maintain pressure on its government
Publications
Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine
The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive, but prevail
Sustain and prosper: How Europeans can support Ukraine
The EU and its member states need to make an urgent commitment to Ukraine’s security and long-term commitment to its European future. If they do not, they risk alienating the very Ukrainians they seek to support
In Europe’s defence: Why the EU needs a security compact with Ukraine
The EU should conclude a security compact with Ukraine. Such an agreement would help the country defend itself against Russia and maximise the effectiveness of European military support.
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea
Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them
Ambiguous alliance: Neutrality, opt-outs, and European defence
The EU’s work on its Strategic Compass should include debates on the special status states’ future role in European defence
Push back, contain, and engage: How the EU should approach relations with Russia
The bloc should reframe how it speaks of human rights and democracy, while developing closer security and military links with select neighbours
Promoting European strategic sovereignty in the eastern neighbourhood
The EU’s tendency to shy away from security issues has helped make covert operations and military threats Russia’s tools of choice in the region
The best defence: Why the EU should forge security compacts with its eastern neighbours
If the EU is to be more geopolitically influential in its own neighbourhood, it needs to start developing strategic security partnerships with key neighbours to the east and the south
Guarding the guardians: Ukraine’s security and judicial reforms under Zelensky
The EU, US, and NATO must ensure that these services remain high in the minds of the Zelensky administration and of Rada members
Articles
Ukraine’s survival: Three scenarios for the war in 2024
Russia has gained the upper hand in its war on Ukraine. To reverse Moscow’s progress, the West will need to invest more in supporting Kyiv. With this in mind, here are three scenarios for what could happen in 2024
After Nagorno-Karabakh: How Europeans can strengthen Armenia’s resilience
The question of Nagorno-Karabakh is unlikely to be discussed any time soon after Azerbaijan took control of the region in September. Europeans should now diplomatically engage with all sides to prevent further escalation, while supporting Armenia’s domestic political stability and strengthening its defence capabilities
The war of opportunity: How Azerbaijan’s offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh is shifting the geopolitics of the South Caucasus
Geopolitical shifts created an opportune moment for Azerbaijan to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh. With the current ceasefire on shaky ground, the EU needs to use the leverage it has to prevent further escalation
Warlords don’t end wars: Why Wagner will not solve the Russia problem
The Wagner mutiny showed that Western states cannot expect a challenge from within to end Russia’s war
The case for sending fighter jets to Ukraine
Ukraine needs fighter jets to counter Russia’s changing military approach. The US should learn from last year’s delay over tank deliveries and approve their release as soon as possible
Repair, replace, reimburse: Sustaining a European tank coalition for Ukraine
Military help for Ukraine is moving towards serious questions of logistics – but more countries still need to step forward. Here is how the next-stage coalition could look.
The second year of Russia’s war: Scenarios for the Ukraine conflict in 2023
Russia is likely to make some progress in the first half of 2023, but it may lack the capability to hold on to its gains
More tortoise, less hare: How Europeans can ramp up military supplies for Ukraine in the long war
European leaders must shift from supplying only short-term military support for Ukraine to providing long-term strategic assistance
Mob unhappy: Why Russia is unlikely to emerge victorious in Ukraine
Putin’s mobilisation is unlikely to change the direction of the war – if Ukraine’s Western allies remain steadfast in their support
The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory
Ukraine needs to move to a new phase of the war if it is to reclaim its territory occupied by Russia. A European plan to supply Leopard tanks should be at the heart of this effort.
Podcasts
Two long years of war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Gustav Gressel and Jeremy Shapiro to understand what factors will shape a third year of war in Ukraine
Understanding the current military situation in Ukraine
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Michael Kofman and Gustav Gressel to discuss the military situation in Ukraine
The consequences of the war in Gaza for Ukraine
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Gustav Gressel and Kirill Shamiev to talk about the consequences of the war in Gaza for Ukraine
The case for sending fighter jets to Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Gustav Gressel to talk about sending fighter jets to Ukraine
The Leopards are free!
Mark Leonard, Camille Grand, Gustav Gressel, Jana Puglierin, and Jeremy Shapiro discuss what the Leopard 2 decision means for the war in Ukraine
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
European defence reloaded
What are the biggest challenges in building greater European sovereignty in defence? And how will this effort be funded?
War in Ukraine
As the situation at the Ukrainian border escalates, Mark Leonard and his guests talk about the recent developments and the state of play at the ground
The Russian troop build-up near Ukraine
How serious is the Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border? And what should NATO do about it?
As covid-19 arrives, Putin disappears – Russia in the age of corona.
How is Russia dealing with covid-19? What impact does the pandemic have on the other underlying political issues in Russia – such as the change…
Events
22 Mar
Insight Ukraine: How Europeans can support the fight for Europe
In challenging times for Ukraine, despite public appraisals following the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ten-year mark of the Russian…
22 May
European defence: Expectations and demands of non-EU partners
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
5 Oct
Waves of ambition: Russia’s military build-up in the Black Sea
What can the EU and NATO do to reduce the risk of escalation in the region?
19 Apr
The crisis in Ukraine: How to solve the Minsk conundrum
What are the intentions behind the military build-up? How likely are the chances of escalation beyond the Donbas? How should the EU respond?
In the media
The notion that Scholz would avoid a NATO-Russian war by not delivering a sort of equipment—be it tanks or Taurus—is utterly ridiculous. Actually, the opposite is true
Gustav Gressel comments on Scholz’ refusal to deploy Taurus missiles in Ukraine
Ukraine requires geo-reference data for the navigation system to fire Taurus missiles. These are classified, and the argument has been made they could not be exchanged
Gustav Gressel comments on Olaf Scholz’s reasoning for not giving Ukraine missiles
Gustav Gressel explains in an interview under what conditions Kiev could go on the offensive again
Gustav Gressel on German considerations in deploying Taurus missiles in Ukraine
Gustav Gressel on the lack of ammunition supplies for Ukraine