After the dust settles: what does the Saudi-Iran deal mean for the Middle East?
The first episode of ECFR’s WOMENP mini-series brings together leading experts to discuss what can be expected from Iran and Saudi Arabia’s de-escalation after the…
Experts & Staff
Ellie Geranmayeh
Deputy Director, Middle East and North Africa programme
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Europe-Iran relations; Iran nuclear deal and associated sanctions policy; Iranian foreign and domestic policy; Iran-Saudi relations
Languages
English, Persian
Biography
Ellie Geranmayeh is a senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She focuses on European policy in relation to Iran, particularly on the nuclear and regional dossiers and sanctions policy.
Geranmayeh worked extensively on the diplomatic track that led to the 2015 nuclear deal and continues to brief senior policymakers on how to effectively contain Iran’s nuclear activities. Her research also covers wider regional dynamics including de-escalation efforts between the GCC states and Iran, and geopolitical trends in the Middle East as a consequence of increasing tensions between global powers.
She is regularly quoted by international media outlets including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, and appears on CNN, Al-Jazeera and the BBC to provide commentary on developments in the Middle East.
The shoots of stability: What the Saudi-Iran deal means for the Middle East and Europe
Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to begin the process of normalising their relations. Europeans should consider how to help entrench the stabilising gains of the agreement – even as they navigate difficulties with Iran
27 Oct
Iran’s “Generation No” protests: what lies ahead?
This Twitter Space will discuss important lessons from the ongoing protests in Iran and their implications for the country’s future
Generation no: The Iranian uprising and how the West should respond
Young people in Iran have led mass protests after the death of a woman in police custody. The West should stand in solidarity with the protesters while keeping the diplomatic route open to constrain Iran’s nuclear programme
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
The SCO is often seen as the anti-NATO, but Putin will struggle to convince the other members – especially the Central Asian states – that his war is more important than Chinese investment
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
Bide and seek: The dangers of US support for a Gulf-Israeli defence pact
Military alignment between Israel and Gulf Arab states risks heightened conflict in the Middle East – without weakening Iran’s geopolitical position or nuclear programme
Can the Iran nuclear deal be saved?
Mark Leonard, Ellie Geranmayeh, Hossein Mousavian, Vali Nasr, and Ali Vaez discuss the latest developments in the negotiations around the Iran nuclear deal and evaluate different possible outcomes and their consequences
Borrell in Tehran: How to overcome three obstacles to the Iran nuclear deal
The collapse of the Iran nuclear deal could lead to military escalation and further turmoil in the global energy market. Europe can only address these threats through diplomacy with Iran and the US
Iran, the US, and the nuclear deal: Biden’s chance to remove Trump’s poison pill
Tehran and Washington are close to a deal – but both sides need to give and take to achieve the wider benefits of a renewed Joint Comprehensive plan of Action (JCPOA)
Publications
Pieces in motion: Rebalancing power in a new Levantine order
How Europe can use the current moment of flux in the Middle East to help stabilise Iraq, Lebanon and Syria
Alone together: How the war in Ukraine shapes the Russian-Iranian relationship
The war in Ukraine has led to unprecedented levels of cooperation between Russia and Iran. This new relationship poses a significant threat to European countries, whose governments should seek to mitigate the potential damage
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Reviving the revolutionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics
Europeans wish to persuade Iran to compromise on strategic issues – but, unless they understand the dynamics of domestic Iranian politics, they will not get far
Meeting the challenge of secondary sanctions
The EU and its member states should strengthen their sanctions policy and begin to build up their deterrence and resilience against secondary sanctions
The coming clash: Why Iran will divide Europe from the United States
Europe must salvage the nuclear deal with Iran and step-up robust diplomacy with Teran on regional issues
After ISIS: How to Win the Peace in Iraq and Libya
Recent terror attacks in Berlin, Baghdad and Istanbul demonstrate that defeating ISIS militarily is only half the battle
The new power couple: Russia and Iran in the Middle East
Joint military operations in Syria have brought Russia and Iran relations closer than at any point since World War II
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2016
The sixth ECFR Foreign Policy Scorecard highlights the EU’s diminishing ability to influence its neighbours, and the neighbourhood’s growing impact on the EU
Engaging with Iran: A European agenda
Iran deal should be a catalyst to end decade-long stand off with Tehran and lead to engagement on regional security
Articles
Enough is enough: Europe needs to oppose Israel’s aggression
Israel has become the Middle East’s leading destabiliser, threatening key European interests. Europe must avoid making the same mistakes that led to the 2003 Iraq invasion, prioritise diplomacy and urge the US not to get entangled in a war with Iran
Europe must act now to prevent a major war between Israel and Iran
Israel’s unprecedented strikes across Iran have shattered nuclear diplomacy and paved the way for regional war. As America scrambles to respond, Europeans can help curb dangerous escalation
How Europe can influence Trump’s deal-making with Iran
Europe’s sidelined diplomats watch as Trump’s team tussles over Iran’s nuclear fate. With “snapback” sanctions looming, Britain, France and Germany must hustle to shape a deal or risk being mere spectators
Dangerous manoeuvres: How Israel and Iran are preparing for Trump 2.0
As Donald Trump prepares for his second US presidency, Iranian and Israeli military manoeuvring during President Biden’s lame-duck period risks drawing the US into all-out war in the Middle East
Managed reform: What Iran’s new president means for European diplomacy
Under new president Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran will have a reform-minded government. Given the grave concern over Iran’s nuclear programme and regional posture, the West should seize the opportunity to pursue principled diplomacy with Tehran
Arbitrary detention: The US-Iranian prisoner swap as a catalyst for a new approach
The Biden administration has secured the release of five US citizens from unjust detention in Iran. European countries should now coordinate with the US to tackle the use of arbitrary detention as diplomatic leverage in Iran and beyond
Quran desecration: How Europeans can ease tensions with Muslim-majority nations
Quran desecration in Sweden and Denmark has drawn the ire of Muslim-majority countries. European governments should act now to prevent an escalation of tensions
The shoots of stability: What the Saudi-Iran deal means for the Middle East and Europe
Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to begin the process of normalising their relations. Europeans should consider how to help entrench the stabilising gains of the agreement – even as they navigate difficulties with Iran
Generation no: The Iranian uprising and how the West should respond
Young people in Iran have led mass protests after the death of a woman in police custody. The West should stand in solidarity with the protesters while keeping the diplomatic route open to constrain Iran’s nuclear programme
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
The SCO is often seen as the anti-NATO, but Putin will struggle to convince the other members – especially the Central Asian states – that his war is more important than Chinese investment
Specials
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Podcasts
What to expect from the conflict between Israel and Iran
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh and Eran Etzion to unpack the latest developments in the conflict between Iran and Israel
Israel attacks Iran: Europe’s role in stopping a dangerous regional war
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh to unpack Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran and the risk of regional escalation
Regional response: How Gulf monarchies leveraged Trump’s visit
Ellie Geranmayeh welcomes Dina Esfandiary, Yasmine Farouk and Dania Thafer to unpack how Arab Gulf monarchies used Donald Trump’s recent visit to showcase their geopolitical strength
Nuclear diplomacy: Trump, Iran and a potential new deal
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, Mohsen Milani and Nathalie Tocci to unpack the latest developments in US-Iran diplomacy
Live from the Doha Forum: The Middle East after Assad
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Vali Nasr to discuss shifting dynamics in the Middle East and their implications for global geopolitics
Saudi Arabia and Trump: What’s next for the Middle East
Ellie Geranmayeh welcomes Dr. Manal Radwan to talk about the impact of Donald Trump’s election for the wars in the Middle East
Regional war in the Middle East: Anatomy of a conflict one year after 7 October
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Hugh Lovatt to discuss the regional war in the Middle East one year on from the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel
Understanding the multipolar Middle East
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh and Alistair Burt to understand the new multipolar order in the Middle East
A Year on from the Mahsa Amini Protests: Where Iran is headed and the Implications for Western Policy
Ellie Geranmayeh speaks to Tara Sepehri Far, Sussan Tahmasebi, and Sanam Vakil about the situation in Iran a year after the Mahsa Amini Protests
The geo-economic effect of the Iran-GCC thaw
Ellie Geranmayeh speaks to Nadereh Chamlou and Sheikha Najla Al Qassimi about the geo-economic trends in the Middle East
Events
19 Jun
After October 7 and after Raisi: Where next for Iranian foreign policy and the Western response?
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
27 Oct
Iran’s “Generation No” protests: what lies ahead?
This Twitter Space will discuss important lessons from the ongoing protests in Iran and their implications for the country’s future
9 Mar
Ending the Yemen conflict: Voices of local peace-builders
This event will consider how women peace-builders in Yemen are providing essential gender-responsive humanitarian and peacemaking support
In the media
Ellie Geranmayeh on the experiences of Iranians in the Israel-Iran war and what this means for the future of the Ayatollah
Unprecedented Israeli attacks on Iranian territory were supposed to negate President Trump’s chances of signing a deal curbing Iran’s nuclear programme
Ellie Geranmayeh on the repercussions of the Israel-Iran war for the US.
Ellie Geranmayeh on the need for Trump to pivot away from maximalist demands towards balanced diplomacy with Iran.
(Iran’s Supreme leader) will likely prefer being taken down as a martyr rather than going down in history as the Iranian leader who capitulated with a gun to his head
Ellie Geranmayeh on whether the Ayatollah will survive the conflict with Israel/the US
ran is likely to underplay the damage to its sites and insist its nuclear program has survived these unprecedented attacks
Ellie Geranmayeh on the impact of Israeli and US strikes on Iran