Maximum pressure on Iran, round two
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh to discuss the latest phase of the US-Iran conflict, the escalating economic pressure campaign against Tehran and the risks of a prolonged war without a clear exit strategy
Iran
The Saudi dilemma: How Yemen could shape the next phase of the Iran war
As the Houthis attack Saudi ships and infrastructure, Riyadh faces an increasingly difficult choice: absorb the blows to stay out of the Iran war or retaliate and risk a dangerous escalation
Down and out from Rabat to Cairo: The Iran war and North African instability
The war between the US and Iran is destabilising North African economies, putting an already fragile region at the very edge of polycrisis
8
Jun
European Power
Iran Nuclear Monitor – Media Briefing en Madrid
La oficina de Madrid de ECFR reunió a periodistas especializados en un media briefing con Ellie Geranmayeh sobre el programa nuclear iraní y el panel interactivo «Iran Nuclear Monitor: Month by Month»
Iran nuclear monitor: Month by month
America and Israel have bombed Iran since 2025 to block Tehran’s path to nuclear weapons. ECFR’s interactive dashboard, updated monthly, assesses current evidence about Iran’s nuclear activities to determine which of six possible scenarios is most likely
Trump strikes Iran
Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, Jeremy Shapiro, and Cinzia Bianco to discuss the escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure
Trump’s Iran choice: Regional takes
In this episode of ECFR’s WOMENP podcast, Ellie Geranmayeh welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, associate senior policy follow at ECFR, Dina Esfandiary, Middle East geoeconomics…
Traps and limits: Why Trump bombing Iran won’t deliver what he wants
The US is locked in a cat-and-mouse game of escalation with Iran. Europeans should work with partners in the Middle East to restrain Trump’s military attacks, prevent broader war and pursue measures to protect against the fates that befell Libya and Syria
How Europe can help Iranians break the internet shutdown
Tehran has used a communications blackout to suppress nationwide protests and control information flows. French and UK governments can use their own satellite terminals to provide Iranians with independent internet access
Will Trump bomb Iran?
Mark Leonard and Ellie Geranmayeh discuss the ongoing protests in Iran and the chance of US intervention
Publications
Beyond proxies: Iran’s deeper strategy in Syria and Lebanon
Iran has spent decades building up its influence in the Levant as part of its deterrence posture against Israel (and the US). The war in Gaza is now pushing the longstanding Israeli-Iranian conflict out into the open – and Lebanon and Syria are potential flashpoints for further escalation
Alone together: How the war in Ukraine shapes the Russian-Iranian relationship
The war in Ukraine has led to unprecedented levels of cooperation between Russia and Iran. This new relationship poses a significant threat to European countries, whose governments should seek to mitigate the potential damage
A new climate for peace: How Europe can promote environmental cooperation between the Gulf Arab states and Iran
European policymakers should back climate diplomacy to help improve relations between Iran and Gulf monarchies
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
The gulf between them: What Arab Gulf countries can learn from Iran’s approach to Iraq
An Iraq that has diverse regional relationships is more likely to be stable and secure, in line with European interests in the Middle East
Gulf of difference: How Europe can get the Gulf monarchies to pursue peace with Iran
The arrival of the Biden administration in Washington, and the perception of US disengagement from the region, offers an opportunity for Europeans to help de-escalate tensions between GCC states and Iran
Reviving the revolutionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics
Europeans wish to persuade Iran to compromise on strategic issues – but, unless they understand the dynamics of domestic Iranian politics, they will not get far
Alone in the desert? How France can lead Europe in the Middle East
France sees the MENA region as a state for foreign policy and great power politics and an opportunity to shape global politics and punch above its weight
The coming clash: Why Iran will divide Europe from the United States
Europe must salvage the nuclear deal with Iran and step-up robust diplomacy with Teran on regional issues
The new power couple: Russia and Iran in the Middle East
Joint military operations in Syria have brought Russia and Iran relations closer than at any point since World War II
Articles
The Saudi dilemma: How Yemen could shape the next phase of the Iran war
As the Houthis attack Saudi ships and infrastructure, Riyadh faces an increasingly difficult choice: absorb the blows to stay out of the Iran war or retaliate and risk a dangerous escalation
Down and out from Rabat to Cairo: The Iran war and North African instability
The war between the US and Iran is destabilising North African economies, putting an already fragile region at the very edge of polycrisis
Traps and limits: Why Trump bombing Iran won’t deliver what he wants
The US is locked in a cat-and-mouse game of escalation with Iran. Europeans should work with partners in the Middle East to restrain Trump’s military attacks, prevent broader war and pursue measures to protect against the fates that befell Libya and Syria
How Europe can help Iranians break the internet shutdown
Tehran has used a communications blackout to suppress nationwide protests and control information flows. French and UK governments can use their own satellite terminals to provide Iranians with independent internet access
The risks of the draw: Europe’s post-snapback move on Iran
European leaders have reimposed UN sanctions on Iran. Now they must steer clear of America’s maximum pressure campaign and instead keep the diplomatic door open
Snap out of it: Europe, Iran and nuclear negotiations
The deadline is looming for Britain, France and Germany to decide whether to reimpose sanctions on Iran. They are right to consider an extension to this “snapback” mechanism—and China could play a crucial role in what comes next
Axis of unease: Why Europeans should try to manage a Turkey-Israel rivalry
The 12-day war between Israel and Iran could have serious implications across the Middle East, not least by exacerbating ongoing tensions between Turkey and Israel. Europeans need to reassure Ankara that they are focused on regional stability—and take Turkey’s defence concerns seriously
Enough is enough: Europe needs to oppose Israel’s aggression
Israel has become the Middle East’s leading destabiliser, threatening key European interests. Europe must avoid making the same mistakes that led to the 2003 Iraq invasion, prioritise diplomacy and urge the US not to get entangled in a war with Iran
Europe must act now to prevent a major war between Israel and Iran
Israel’s unprecedented strikes across Iran have shattered nuclear diplomacy and paved the way for regional war. As America scrambles to respond, Europeans can help curb dangerous escalation
Avoiding the next front: Iraq’s fight to stay out of the Israel-Iran conflict
As Israel and Iran clash, Iraq’s Shia leadership is trying to rein in domestic Iranian-backed paramilitaries to shield the country from becoming a new battleground in the Middle East
Specials
Iran nuclear monitor: Month by month
America and Israel have bombed Iran since 2025 to block Tehran’s path to nuclear weapons. ECFR’s interactive dashboard, updated monthly, assesses current evidence about Iran’s nuclear activities to determine which of six possible scenarios is most likely
Part of the problem: A better European approach to human rights in the Middle East and North Africa
European states face accusations of neglecting the matter of human rights in their southern neighbourhood, and even of being complicit. Yet they are failing to maximise the influence they could bring to bear
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Podcasts
Maximum pressure on Iran, round two
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh to discuss the latest phase of the US-Iran conflict, the escalating economic pressure campaign against Tehran and the risks of a prolonged war without a clear exit strategy
Trump strikes Iran
Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, Jeremy Shapiro, and Cinzia Bianco to discuss the escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure
Trump’s Iran choice: Regional takes
In this episode of ECFR’s WOMENP podcast, Ellie Geranmayeh welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, associate senior policy follow at ECFR, Dina Esfandiary, Middle East geoeconomics…
Will Trump bomb Iran?
Mark Leonard and Ellie Geranmayeh discuss the ongoing protests in Iran and the chance of US intervention
Israel attacks Iran: Europe’s role in stopping a dangerous regional war
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh to unpack Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran and the risk of regional escalation
Live from the Doha Forum: The Middle East after Assad
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Vali Nasr to discuss shifting dynamics in the Middle East and their implications for global geopolitics
The World after the West: Nasser Hadian on Iran
Mark Leonard welcomes Nasser Hadian to delve into Iran’s geopolitical positioning
Podcast special: Iran attacks Israel
On Saturday evening, Iran launched a major attack on Israeli territory, with a combination of 300 drones and missiles. Israel’s air defense seems to…
A Year on from the Mahsa Amini Protests: Where Iran is headed and the Implications for Western Policy
Ellie Geranmayeh speaks to Tara Sepehri Far, Sussan Tahmasebi, and Sanam Vakil about the situation in Iran a year after the Mahsa Amini Protests
After the dust settles: what does the Saudi-Iran deal mean for the Middle East?
The first episode of ECFR’s WOMENP mini-series brings together leading experts to discuss what can be expected from Iran and Saudi Arabia’s de-escalation after…
Events
8
Jun
European Power
Iran Nuclear Monitor – Media Briefing en Madrid
La oficina de Madrid de ECFR reunió a periodistas especializados en un media briefing con Ellie Geranmayeh sobre el programa nuclear iraní y el panel interactivo «Iran Nuclear Monitor: Month by Month»
Middle East and North Africa
After October 7 and after Raisi: Where next for Iranian foreign policy and the Western response?
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
27
Oct
Middle East and North Africa
Iran’s “Generation No” protests: what lies ahead?
This Twitter Space will discuss important lessons from the ongoing protests in Iran and their implications for the country’s future
13
Dec
Middle East and North Africa
Part of the problem? A better European approach to human rights in the Middle East and North Africa
How can Europeans more effectively advance their human rights agenda as part of, and while maintaining, their broader relationships with regional states?
23
Feb
Middle East and North Africa
Gulf of difference: Monarchie del Golfo ed Iran. Il ruolo dell’Europa
Il recente insediamento dell’amministrazione Biden a Washington e il percepito disimpegno degli Stati Uniti nella regione offrono agli europei l’opportunità di contribuire ad allentare le tensioni tra gli Stati del Consiglio di Cooperazione del Golfo (CCG) e l’Iran
3
Dec
Middle East and North Africa
Iran: Calculating the cost of US sanctions
We invite you to join us for a fruitful discussion on the EUs relations with Iran in light of the US sanctions policy
4
Nov
Middle East and North Africa
European Foreign Policy In An Era Of Great Powers Competition
How can the EU demonstrate resolve and respond to the interests of Russia, Turkey, Iran and Saudi-Arabia?
4
Dec
Middle East and North Africa
US Sanctions & Economic Warfare: Impact for Europe
Discussing US secondary sanctions
2
Oct
European Power
« Comment la France peut remobiliser l’Europe au Moyen-Orient »
Nous avons le plaisir de vous inviter à une table ronde avec Nicholas Westcott, Directeur la Royal African Society de Londres, Gurvan Le Bras, Chargé de mission au CAPS, Manuel Lafont Rapnouil, Directeur du bureau de Paris de l’ECFR, et Claude Guibal, grand reporter à France Inter
1
Oct
Middle East and North Africa
Russia and the Middle East
Nous avons le plaisir de vous inviter à un évènement en partenariat avec l’Institut d’études de sécurité de l’Union européenne (EUISS) avec Nicu Popescu, Stanislav Secrieru, Julien Barnes-Dacey et Timofey Borisov
In the media
Ellie Geranmayeh and Jeremy Shapiro on Iran’s resilience after the US confrontation
