High stakes: How sanctions relief could impact EU-Iran trade
The new Iranian administration may agree on a revised JCPOA with the US. But if the economic benefits are paltry, political support will drain away.
Iran
The election of President Ebrahim Raisi and the future of Iran
Does the election of Raisi represent a significant change of direction following the term of President Rouhani?
A familiar victory: Iran’s divides under a new president
Raisi’s election victory will not make Iranian politics any less volatile. Instead, it signals another of the cyclical changes in Iran’s politics that have taken place since 1979.
Council of despair: Iran’s uncompetitive presidential election
Iran’s presidential election will do little to boost frontrunner Ebrahim Raisi’s popular legitimacy
Mediation nation: Iraq’s new role in Iranian-Saudi talks
Europe should support the recent Iranian-Saudi talks in Baghdad as an opportunity to help stabilise the Middle East, despite risk of that engagement being derailed
The gulf between them: What Arab Gulf countries can learn from Iran’s approach to Iraq
An Iraq that has diverse regional relationships is more likely to be stable and secure, in line with European interests in the Middle East
Why Biden should not treat humanitarian trade as a concession to Iran
The Biden administration has boxed itself into a maximalist position that jeopardises efforts to make the Iran sanctions programme more humane. European governments should be pushed to change course.
Gulf of difference: Monarchie del Golfo ed Iran. Il ruolo dell’Europa
Il recente insediamento dell’amministrazione Biden a Washington e il percepito disimpegno degli Stati Uniti nella regione offrono agli europei l’opportunità di contribuire ad allentare le tensioni tra gli Stati del Consiglio di Cooperazione del Golfo (CCG) e l’Iran
Engage and persuade: How the E3 should deal with Israel on Iran
In the coming weeks, the US and the E3 should make clear to Israel that reviving the original Iran nuclear deal is still the best means of addressing its immediate security concerns
The long year: Top foreign policy trends for 2021
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year to come
Publications
The gulf between them: What Arab Gulf countries can learn from Iran’s approach to Iraq
An Iraq that has diverse regional relationships is more likely to be stable and secure, in line with European interests in the Middle East
Gulf of difference: How Europe can get the Gulf monarchies to pursue peace with Iran
The arrival of the Biden administration in Washington, and the perception of US disengagement from the region, offers an opportunity for Europeans to help de-escalate tensions between GCC states and Iran
Reviving the revolutionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics
Europeans wish to persuade Iran to compromise on strategic issues – but, unless they understand the dynamics of domestic Iranian politics, they will not get far
Alone in the desert? How France can lead Europe in the Middle East
France sees the MENA region as a state for foreign policy and great power politics and an opportunity to shape global politics and punch above its weight
The coming clash: Why Iran will divide Europe from the United States
Europe must salvage the nuclear deal with Iran and step-up robust diplomacy with Teran on regional issues
The new power couple: Russia and Iran in the Middle East
Joint military operations in Syria have brought Russia and Iran relations closer than at any point since World War II
Engaging with Iran: A European agenda
Iran deal should be a catalyst to end decade-long stand off with Tehran and lead to engagement on regional security
The EU’s sanctions regime against Iran in the aftermath of the JPA
Framing concerns and assessing risks
Détente with Iran; how Europe can maximise the chances of a final nuclear deal
EUROPE MUST ACT TO ENSURE AN IRANIAN NUCLEAR DEAL Europe should be more active in optimising the chances of reaching and implementing…
The Gulf and sectarianism
How sectarian agendas shape the politics of the Middle East
Articles
High stakes: How sanctions relief could impact EU-Iran trade
The new Iranian administration may agree on a revised JCPOA with the US. But if the economic benefits are paltry, political support will drain away.
A familiar victory: Iran’s divides under a new president
Raisi’s election victory will not make Iranian politics any less volatile. Instead, it signals another of the cyclical changes in Iran’s politics that have taken place since 1979.
Council of despair: Iran’s uncompetitive presidential election
Iran’s presidential election will do little to boost frontrunner Ebrahim Raisi’s popular legitimacy
Mediation nation: Iraq’s new role in Iranian-Saudi talks
Europe should support the recent Iranian-Saudi talks in Baghdad as an opportunity to help stabilise the Middle East, despite risk of that engagement being derailed
Why Biden should not treat humanitarian trade as a concession to Iran
The Biden administration has boxed itself into a maximalist position that jeopardises efforts to make the Iran sanctions programme more humane. European governments should be pushed to change course.
Engage and persuade: How the E3 should deal with Israel on Iran
In the coming weeks, the US and the E3 should make clear to Israel that reviving the original Iran nuclear deal is still the best means of addressing its immediate security concerns
The long year: Top foreign policy trends for 2021
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year to come
Course correction in US-Iranian relations: A road map for the Biden administration
Joe Biden has vowed to re-enter the Iran nuclear deal. In a recent report for Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Ellie Geranmayeh looks at what concrete steps can be taken by the United States, Iran, and Europe to bring all parties to the nuclear deal back into full compliance, noting that time is of the essence.
Do not expect a rush of arms sales to Iran
A broad range of political and financial problems are likely to prevent Iran from importing advanced weapons systems in the coming years
Europe can preserve the Iran nuclear deal until November
After a humiliating defeat at the UN Security Council, Washington will seek snapback sanctions to sabotage what is left of the nuclear deal. Britain, France, and Germany can still keep it alive until after the US election.
Specials
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Video
Mohammad Javad Zarif: “Security cannot be purchased”
Powerful argument from Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif – “Security cannot be purchased” – at ECFR's 10th anniversary council meeting.
Iran post sanctions and elections
Richard Nephew from the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University takes a look at the openings and challenges for Europe and the US
Rebooting EU foreign policy
Nick Witney, the co-author of the ECFR's publication, “Rebooting EU Foreign Policy”, and Spiros Economides of the LSE, both explain why the European Union sorely needs to face reality and fundamentally rethink how it deals with the rest of the world
What drives US policy in the MENA – podcast series
Three views on US policy in the Middle East – from Jeremy Shapiro, Professor Juan Cole, and Ambassador Charles Freeman – based on three new ECFR podcasts
Podcasts
The election of President Ebrahim Raisi and the future of Iran
Does the election of Raisi represent a significant change of direction following the term of President Rouhani?
Top ten foreign policy trends in 2021
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year to come
How the US could return to the Iran nuclear deal
To what extent can and will Iran policy be a priority of the incoming administration? What can Europeans do to bolster transatlantic diplomacy on Iran?
In the media
Cinzia Bianco comments on how the Palestinian-Israeli latest conflict has affected the Abraham Accords
Ellie Geranmayeh comments on the future of the JCPOA and Ayatollah Khamenei’s reaction to a recent scandal involving criticism about internal decision-making
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj comments on Iran’s push for its banking industry to be given guaranteed and conclusive sanctions relief at talks to restore the country’s nuclear deal with world powers
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj co-authored an analysis on the signing of a 25-year partnership deal between China and Iran