Live from the Doha Forum: The Middle East after Assad
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Vali Nasr to discuss shifting dynamics in the Middle East and their implications for global geopolitics
Iran
Avoiding the next front: Iraq’s fight to stay out of the Israel-Iran conflict
As Israel and Iran clash, Iraq’s Shia leadership is trying to rein in domestic Iranian-backed paramilitaries to shield the country from becoming a new battleground in the Middle East
Going ballistic: How Europeans can respond to Iranian military support for Russia
European and US governments announced this week that Iran has supplied Russia with several hundred short range ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine…
Managed reform: What Iran’s new president means for European diplomacy
Under new president Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran will have a reform-minded government. Given the grave concern over Iran’s nuclear programme and regional posture, the West should seize the opportunity to pursue principled diplomacy with Tehran
The World after the West: Nasser Hadian on Iran
Mark Leonard welcomes Nasser Hadian to delve into Iran’s geopolitical positioning
19 Jun
After October 7 and after Raisi: Where next for Iranian foreign policy and the Western response?
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
Beyond proxies: Iran’s deeper strategy in Syria and Lebanon
Iran has spent decades building up its influence in the Levant as part of its deterrence posture against Israel (and the US). The war in Gaza is now pushing the longstanding Israeli-Iranian conflict out into the open – and Lebanon and Syria are potential flashpoints for further escalation
Direct destabilisation: Iran’s attack on Israel
Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israel risks further escalation in the Middle East. European leaders should join the US in pressing Israel not to retaliate with strikes on Iran – or the region could end up embroiled in an all-consuming war
Podcast special: Iran attacks Israel
On Saturday evening, Iran launched a major attack on Israeli territory, with a combination of 300 drones and missiles. Israel’s air defense seems to have…
Arbitrary detention: The US-Iranian prisoner swap as a catalyst for a new approach
The Biden administration has secured the release of five US citizens from unjust detention in Iran. European countries should now coordinate with the US to tackle the use of arbitrary detention as diplomatic leverage in Iran and beyond
Publications
Beyond proxies: Iran’s deeper strategy in Syria and Lebanon
Iran has spent decades building up its influence in the Levant as part of its deterrence posture against Israel (and the US). The war in Gaza is now pushing the longstanding Israeli-Iranian conflict out into the open – and Lebanon and Syria are potential flashpoints for further escalation
Alone together: How the war in Ukraine shapes the Russian-Iranian relationship
The war in Ukraine has led to unprecedented levels of cooperation between Russia and Iran. This new relationship poses a significant threat to European countries, whose governments should seek to mitigate the potential damage
A new climate for peace: How Europe can promote environmental cooperation between the Gulf Arab states and Iran
European policymakers should back climate diplomacy to help improve relations between Iran and Gulf monarchies
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
The gulf between them: What Arab Gulf countries can learn from Iran’s approach to Iraq
An Iraq that has diverse regional relationships is more likely to be stable and secure, in line with European interests in the Middle East
Gulf of difference: How Europe can get the Gulf monarchies to pursue peace with Iran
The arrival of the Biden administration in Washington, and the perception of US disengagement from the region, offers an opportunity for Europeans to help de-escalate tensions between GCC states and Iran
Reviving the revolutionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics
Europeans wish to persuade Iran to compromise on strategic issues – but, unless they understand the dynamics of domestic Iranian politics, they will not get far
Alone in the desert? How France can lead Europe in the Middle East
France sees the MENA region as a state for foreign policy and great power politics and an opportunity to shape global politics and punch above its weight
The coming clash: Why Iran will divide Europe from the United States
Europe must salvage the nuclear deal with Iran and step-up robust diplomacy with Teran on regional issues
The new power couple: Russia and Iran in the Middle East
Joint military operations in Syria have brought Russia and Iran relations closer than at any point since World War II
Articles
Avoiding the next front: Iraq’s fight to stay out of the Israel-Iran conflict
As Israel and Iran clash, Iraq’s Shia leadership is trying to rein in domestic Iranian-backed paramilitaries to shield the country from becoming a new battleground in the Middle East
Going ballistic: How Europeans can respond to Iranian military support for Russia
European and US governments announced this week that Iran has supplied Russia with several hundred short range ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine…
Managed reform: What Iran’s new president means for European diplomacy
Under new president Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran will have a reform-minded government. Given the grave concern over Iran’s nuclear programme and regional posture, the West should seize the opportunity to pursue principled diplomacy with Tehran
Direct destabilisation: Iran’s attack on Israel
Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israel risks further escalation in the Middle East. European leaders should join the US in pressing Israel not to retaliate with strikes on Iran – or the region could end up embroiled in an all-consuming war
Arbitrary detention: The US-Iranian prisoner swap as a catalyst for a new approach
The Biden administration has secured the release of five US citizens from unjust detention in Iran. European countries should now coordinate with the US to tackle the use of arbitrary detention as diplomatic leverage in Iran and beyond
Quran desecration: How Europeans can ease tensions with Muslim-majority nations
Quran desecration in Sweden and Denmark has drawn the ire of Muslim-majority countries. European governments should act now to prevent an escalation of tensions
Internalising peace: How to build on Saudi-Iranian de-escalation for a settlement in Yemen
The normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran has provided welcome impetus towards peace in Yemen. But resolving the regional dimension of the conflict should not come at the expense of inclusive, intra-Yemeni negotiations under UN auspices
The shoots of stability: What the Saudi-Iran deal means for the Middle East and Europe
Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to begin the process of normalising their relations. Europeans should consider how to help entrench the stabilising gains of the agreement – even as they navigate difficulties with Iran
Three ways European governments can support Iranian protesters
The protest movement sweeping Iran is an Iranian-led struggle. But European governments can play their part by focusing on measures that help protect protesters
No loitering: What Russia’s Iranian drones could mean for Ukraine
Russia is using Iranian-made drones to make up for its other shortcomings. Their use is unlikely to prove a game-changer – but Europeans should still assist Ukraine to defend against them
Specials
Part of the problem: A better European approach to human rights in the Middle East and North Africa
European states face accusations of neglecting the matter of human rights in their southern neighbourhood, and even of being complicit. Yet they are failing to maximise the influence they could bring to bear
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Podcasts
Live from the Doha Forum: The Middle East after Assad
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Vali Nasr to discuss shifting dynamics in the Middle East and their implications for global geopolitics
The World after the West: Nasser Hadian on Iran
Mark Leonard welcomes Nasser Hadian to delve into Iran’s geopolitical positioning
Podcast special: Iran attacks Israel
On Saturday evening, Iran launched a major attack on Israeli territory, with a combination of 300 drones and missiles. Israel’s air defense seems to have…
A Year on from the Mahsa Amini Protests: Where Iran is headed and the Implications for Western Policy
Ellie Geranmayeh speaks to Tara Sepehri Far, Sussan Tahmasebi, and Sanam Vakil about the situation in Iran a year after the Mahsa Amini Protests
After the dust settles: what does the Saudi-Iran deal mean for the Middle East?
The first episode of ECFR’s WOMENP mini-series brings together leading experts to discuss what can be expected from Iran and Saudi Arabia’s de-escalation after the…
The Iran-Saudi deal and its impact
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Cinzia Bianco and Andrew Small, to talk about the new Saudi – Iran deal
The Clash of Orders with Vali Nasr on Iran
Mark Leonard is joined by Vali Nasr to learn more about the Iranian perspective on global order
Can the Iran nuclear deal be saved?
Mark Leonard, Ellie Geranmayeh, Hossein Mousavian, Vali Nasr, and Ali Vaez discuss the latest developments in the negotiations around the Iran nuclear deal and evaluate different possible outcomes and their consequences
The election of President Ebrahim Raisi and the future of Iran
Does the election of Raisi represent a significant change of direction following the term of President Rouhani?
Top ten foreign policy trends in 2021
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year to come
Events
19 Jun
After October 7 and after Raisi: Where next for Iranian foreign policy and the Western response?
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
27 Oct
Iran’s “Generation No” protests: what lies ahead?
This Twitter Space will discuss important lessons from the ongoing protests in Iran and their implications for the country’s future
13 Dec
Part of the problem? A better European approach to human rights in the Middle East and North Africa
How can Europeans more effectively advance their human rights agenda as part of, and while maintaining, their broader relationships with regional states?
23 Feb
Gulf of difference: Monarchie del Golfo ed Iran. Il ruolo dell’Europa
Il recente insediamento dell’amministrazione Biden a Washington e il percepito disimpegno degli Stati Uniti nella regione offrono agli europei l’opportunità di contribuire ad allentare le tensioni tra gli Stati del Consiglio di Cooperazione del Golfo (CCG) e l’Iran
3 Dec
Iran: Calculating the cost of US sanctions
We invite you to join us for a fruitful discussion on the EUs relations with Iran in light of the US sanctions policy
4 Nov
European Foreign Policy In An Era Of Great Powers Competition
How can the EU demonstrate resolve and respond to the interests of Russia, Turkey, Iran and Saudi-Arabia?
4 Dec
US Sanctions & Economic Warfare: Impact for Europe
Discussing US secondary sanctions
2 Oct
« Comment la France peut remobiliser l’Europe au Moyen-Orient »
Nous avons le plaisir de vous inviter à une table ronde avec Nicholas Westcott, Directeur la Royal African Society de Londres, Gurvan Le Bras, Chargé de mission au CAPS, Manuel Lafont Rapnouil, Directeur du bureau de Paris de l’ECFR, et Claude Guibal, grand reporter à France Inter
1 Oct
Russia and the Middle East
Nous avons le plaisir de vous inviter à un évènement en partenariat avec l’Institut d’études de sécurité de l’Union européenne (EUISS) avec Nicu Popescu, Stanislav Secrieru, Julien Barnes-Dacey et Timofey Borisov
14 May
After Trump’s Iran decision: what for Europe and Italy?
A closed door discussion on the future of EU-Iran relations
In the media
In her op-ed, Ellie Geranmayeh sets out how the Trump administration and Iran can pave the way for an improved and long-lasting nuclear deal
Ellie Geranmayeh on the dangers ahead after Trump threatens to bomb Iran and how diplomacy can be used to avert this
Unlike the first Trump administration, the Europeans are going to be much more aligned to whatever policy the US chooses