The end of Germany’s China illusion with Janka Oertel
Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel to discuss her new book “End of the China illusion” and the West’s biggest misconceptions about China
Experts & Staff
Janka Oertel
Director, Asia programme
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Europe-China relations, US-China relations, Security in East Asia, Chinese Foreign and Security Policy, Geopolitical Dimension of Emerging Technologies
Languages
German, English, French (conversational), Chinese (fair)
Biography
Dr Janka Oertel is director of the Asia programme and a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Oertel previously worked as a senior fellow in the Asia programme at the German Marshall Fund of the United States’ Berlin office, where she focused on transatlantic China policy including on emerging technologies, Chinese foreign policy, and security in east Asia. Prior to joining the GMF, she served as a programme director at Körber Foundation’s Berlin office. She was also a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin) and worked at United Nations Headquarters, New York, as a Carlo-Schmid fellow. She has published widely on topics related to EU-China relations, US-China relations, security in the Asia-Pacific region, Chinese foreign policy, 5G and emerging technologies, as well as climate cooperation.
She has testified before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the German Bundestag, and is frequently quoted in leading media outlets such as the Financial Times, the New York Times, The Economist, Süddeutsche Zeitung, El Confidencial, Berlingske, and many more. Her new book “Ende der China-Illusion. Wie wir mit Pekings Machtanspruch umgehen müssen” was published in August 2023 with Piper in Germany.
Oertel holds a PhD from the University of Jena. Her dissertation focused on Chinese policies within the United Nations.
The end of Germany’s China illusion
The German government has shed most of its illusions about the future political and economic relationship with China. How it navigates the implementation of its new approach will have significant implications for the EU and other member states
In:Sight China with Duan Jiuzhou
Mark Leonard welcomes Duan Jiuzhou to talk about China’s role in the MENA region
In:Sight China with Wang Dong
Janka Oertel welcome Wang Dong, to talk about the current tensions between Washington and Beijing
Bad cop in Brussels: How the European Commission is driving the China narrative – again
Numerous European leaders are beating a path to Beijing’s door. ECFR Asia director Janka Oertel and the German Marshall Fund’s Andrew Small reflect on European wishful thinking, clever tactical manoeuvres, and long-term strategic choices.
China and Russia: a friendship without limits
Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel and Alicja Bachulska, to discuss China-Russia relations
In:Sight China with Liu Hongqiao
Janka Oertel and Liu Hongqiao discuss China’s role at COP27 and the outlook of the country’s energy transition
Introducing: In:Sight China with Wang Jisi
Introducing our new podcast mini-series In:Sight China. Subscribe now!
The global race for semiconductor hegemony
How do chips decide power in today’s geopolitical competition?
Publications
Circuit breakers: Securing Europe’s green energy supply chains
Europeans risk over-dependence on China for the green technologies needed to build the low-carbon economy of the future. They should take steps to reduce their exposure – while recognising they will have to work with Chinese suppliers in some instances.
Home advantage: How China’s protected market threatens Europe’s economic power
The EU urgently needs to incorporate the concept and reality of the ‘protected home market advantage’ into its thinking on China
Climate superpowers: How the EU and China can compete and cooperate for a green future
As climate action becomes more material to economic interests, Europe and China will both compete and cooperate with each other, against the backdrop of an overarching systemic rivalry
Promoting European strategic sovereignty in Asia
Europe should upgrade its security activities, and seize the moment to push multilateral institutions up the agenda. But it will be Europe’s connectivity agenda that provides the golden thread running through its foreign policy and its other objectives in the region.
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Defending Europe’s Economic Sovereignty: new ways to resist economic coercion
The EU should move quickly to consider and adopt a suite of tools to protect and enhance European sovereignty in the geo-economic sphere
The new China consensus: How Europe is growing wary of Beijing
In its remaining months, the German Council presidency could use this momentum to create institutional structures to improve the EU’s capacity to act
Europe’s digital sovereignty: From rulemaker to superpower in the age of US-China rivalry
The EU cannot continue to rely on its regulatory power but must become a tech superpower in its own right. Referees do not win the game.
Articles
The end of Germany’s China illusion
The German government has shed most of its illusions about the future political and economic relationship with China. How it navigates the implementation of its new approach will have significant implications for the EU and other member states
Bad cop in Brussels: How the European Commission is driving the China narrative – again
Numerous European leaders are beating a path to Beijing’s door. ECFR Asia director Janka Oertel and the German Marshall Fund’s Andrew Small reflect on European wishful thinking, clever tactical manoeuvres, and long-term strategic choices.
China’s wolf warriors and feminist foreign policy: A German approach
In a new world of strongmen and power politics, German policymakers should look beyond existing feminist foreign policy guidelines to develop a new China policy
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
The SCO is often seen as the anti-NATO, but Putin will struggle to convince the other members – especially the Central Asian states – that his war is more important than Chinese investment
Democratic deterrence: Why Europeans should challenge China’s narrative on Taiwan
Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is no deviation from established protocols as China claims. Rather, it is a sign of a fundamental change in lawmakers’ ability to support democracy.
Cold reality: How Europe is adjusting to China’s support for Putin
To address the systemic challenge China poses, the EU will also need to address the fallout in the global south of Russia’s war on Ukraine
Russia’s escalation in Ukraine: Views from Asia
Asia’s three largest powers all have a stake in the Russia-Ukraine crisis. China hopes to change the global order, Japan aims to resist this effort, and India is eager not to alienate Russia or the West.
Games changer: How China is rewriting global rules and Russia is playing along
Beijing and Moscow are unlikely to rush to each other’s aid during a military escalation, be it in Ukraine or over Taiwan. But the enabling environment of their mutual diplomatic support matters greatly.
Germany’s new China policy
ECFR’s Janka Oertel and Andrew Small discuss how the new government in Berlin will adjust Germany’s approach to China
The China factor in the German election
Germany will find it increasingly hard to maintain its current level of prosperity – and security – without charting a new course on China. Fortunately, German voters seem ready for change.
Podcasts
The end of Germany’s China illusion with Janka Oertel
Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel to discuss her new book “End of the China illusion” and the West’s biggest misconceptions about China
In:Sight China with Duan Jiuzhou
Mark Leonard welcomes Duan Jiuzhou to talk about China’s role in the MENA region
In:Sight China with Wang Dong
Janka Oertel welcome Wang Dong, to talk about the current tensions between Washington and Beijing
China and Russia: a friendship without limits
Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel and Alicja Bachulska, to discuss China-Russia relations
In:Sight China with Liu Hongqiao
Janka Oertel and Liu Hongqiao discuss China’s role at COP27 and the outlook of the country’s energy transition
Introducing: In:Sight China with Wang Jisi
Introducing our new podcast mini-series In:Sight China. Subscribe now!
The global race for semiconductor hegemony
How do chips decide power in today’s geopolitical competition?
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
Germany’s Zeitenwende: what does it mean for Europe?
German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is facing criticism for not meeting the expectations he created with his Zeitenwende speech. But how fair is this criticism?
Events
17 May
It’s complicated: The Russia-China Axis
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
12 May
Green energy and China: How to avoid new dependencies?
Rhodium Group are delighted to invite you to the virtual launch event of our new policy paper “Circuit Breakers: Securing the Green Energy Supply Chain”
11 Mar
Identifying and countering China’s global digital strategy
NBR, Institut Montaigne (IM), and ECFR partner for a joint virtual event to discuss China’s global digital strategy
10 Mar
The EU and Japan: Strategic partners in the Indo-Pacific
In collaboration with the Embassy of Japan in Madrid, ECFR has organised a public virtual debate to explore how the EU and the Indo-Pacific can build a strategic alliance and how the EU-Japan relationship can drive this process
17 Feb
Europe Debates | Should Lithuania expect more European solidarity vis-à-vis China?
This Oxford-style debate is part of ECFR’s Re:shape Global Europe project supported by Stiftung Mercator
8 Feb
Japanese and EU Indo-Pacific policies after the German and Japanese elections
How will the new administrations in Germany and Japan impact the EU’s and Japanese Indo-Pacific strategy and China policy?
28 Jan
Construire une souveraineté stratégique européenne ensemble
Dans le cadre de La Fabrique Défense, l’ECFR Paris présentera une table-ronde en personne
14 Dec
Joining forces with the Indo-Pacific: Kick-starting Europe’s new approach to the region
Over the course of the day, we will discuss how Europe and Asia can redefine the Indo-Pacific in terms compatible with their mutual interests. The 3 sessions will look specifically at trade, connectivity, and the Green Transition.
29 Nov
India-China Luncheon Lectures – Understanding Sino-Indian climate diplomacy
Where do China and India converge and diverge on climate governance? How do their geopolitical tensions impact their climate diplomacy?
18 Nov
After COP26 – How Europe can turn words into action
How can the EU and its member states take on this role and enact change to advance climate ambitions in a practical way?
In the media
The global economic costs would be enormous. We must reflect over worst-case scenarios, in order to prevent them
In light of her newly-published book Ende der China-Illusion/End of the China illusion, Janka Oertel talks about Germany’s China strategy and the implications of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
Policymakers are under pressure. We therefore urgently need a public debate that increases understanding of how to reduce dependencies.
Janka Oertel explains in the interview that Germany must let go of its illusions about Xi Jinping’s regime
It would be a misconception that we are dealing with a temporary crisis of our relations and economic changes in China. The status quo ante will not return.
Janka Oertel on the current economic and political developments in China
One can say quite clearly: In the case of Hong Kong, the western side was not willing to pay this price
Janka Oertel comments on how the West can deal with China, a topic she discusses in her book that will appear 31 August
That’s why economic security is the linchpin: How do we protect ourselves? How do we strengthen ourselves?
Janka Oertel comments on the German government’s new China strategy