Lessons from Ukraine: Mapping out EU sanctions options for a Taiwan conflict

– , Berlin time (CEST, UTC+2)
Venue: ECFR Berlin, Unter den Linden 17, 10117 Berlin (entrance: Rosmarinstr. 1)
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Guests

Agathe Demarais, Head, Geoeconomics Initiative & Senior policy fellow, ECFR

Chaired by

Susi Dennison, Director, European Power programme & Senior policy fellow, ECFR

Picture this scenario: the year is 2028 and Western intelligence services have reached an alarming conclusion. Credible sources suggest that China is about to impose a maritime blockade around Taiwan – a step that intelligence officers believe will precede a full-scale invasion of the territory. As the world braces for impact, the European Union and its 27 member states scramble to assess their economic statecraft options in the form of financial sanctions, trade restrictions or export controls – or anything that could alter China’s calculus. 

For EU policymakers, this crisis raises a series of difficult, urgent questions:

  • What are Europe’s sanctions options and leverage against China?  
  • Could China’s sanctions-proofing efforts weigh on the bite of Western sanctions? 
  • How would China try to evade EU sanctions and how can the bloc curb evasion? 
  • Should the bloc – under US pressure – go down the secondary sanctions road? 
  • Why is getting private sector buy-in so hard, and what can the EU do about it? 

Drawing on insights from an upcoming ECFR policy brief, this event will delve into Europe’s economic statecraft options if China were to launch an aggression against Taiwan. The discussion and Q&A will also provide opportunities to examine lessons learned from Ukraine-related sanctions, and how the EU should keep these in mind in a Taiwan conflict scenario. 

The event is organised by ECFR’s Re:Order project. The Project Re:Order is supported by Stiftung Mercator. 

In-person event. Registration required. Register here