How to defeat Russia and prevent nuclear armageddon with one weird trick
We are not on a path to nuclear war – but strong deterrence measures from the West can help ensure that scenario remains unlikely
Experts & Staff
Rafael Loss
Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Defence and security policy; military operations; nuclear strategy and arms control
Languages
German, English
Biography
Rafael Loss is a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. His work focuses on security and defence in the Euro-Atlantic area; military operations, innovation, and technology; and nuclear strategy and arms control.
Before joining ECFR, Loss was a research associate at the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Livermore, California. He is an alumnus of the German Federal Ministry of Defence’s Manfred Wörner Seminar, the NATO Defense College’s Early-Career Nuclear Strategists Workshop, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Nuclear Scholars Initiative.
Loss was a Fulbright fellow at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, where he earned an MA in international relations. He also holds a BA in political science from the University of Bremen.
8 Nov
The role of Germany in Europe in times of war: Potential for German-Bulgarian cooperation
We will discuss Germany’s role in Europe and will reflect on how the new European order is viewed in Berlin
The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory
Ukraine needs to move to a new phase of the war if it is to reclaim its territory occupied by Russia. A European plan to supply Leopard tanks should be at the heart of this effort
The cold man of Europe: Germany’s energy emergency
Decades of wilfully blind dependence on Russian gas have left Germany facing a bleak winter. German leaders could now have an opportunity to begin repairing the damage
Staying power: How the EU can support NATO in eastern Europe
NATO should deter Russia by establishing a truly permanent presence in front-line states. The EU has a major role to play in this effort
War and sovereignty: How the EU can enhance its ability to act
The EU has made insufficient progress in enhancing its sovereignty, particularly in security and defence. The union now needs to overcome internal differences to bolster its external ability to act
European Sovereignty Index
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act
Europe listens…Dr Togzhan Kassenova
As the EU builds up its global footprint, it’s crucial to avoid European naval gazing. Instead, Europe needs to engage partners around the world on…
How Germany can sustain its policy revolution
The revolution in defence funding and energy policy that Germany recently announced should be accompanied by an intellectual awakening
Publications
Europe’s green moment: How to meet the climate challenge
Member states are not divided into two diametrically opposed camps. This makes the implementation of the European Green Deal an intricate puzzle – yet achievable
The crisis that made the European Union: European cohesion in the age of covid
The pandemic poses a threat to European cohesion by increasing economic divides and undermining trust in the EU and national governments
Articles
Common cause: How Germany’s pro-European parties can stop the rise of the far-right
In their campaigns for the European parliament election, Germany’s pro-European parties must unite to effectively mobilise voters against the threat of the far-right party, Alternative for Germany
Living in a nuclear-curious world: America’s weakening grip on non-proliferation
As China and Russia expand their nuclear arsenals, US security guarantees are beginning to lose their weight. Now, American allies may start to consider taking up the nuclear option themselves
Striking absence: Europe’s missile gap and how to close it
Europeans have been quick to enhance their missile defence capabilities. But to properly address the threat of Russia’s missiles and deter broader conflict, they need to complement defensive systems with offensive ones
Shapes of Multilateralisms Collection
This collection of nine insightful essays illuminates the strategies employed to advance European interests and values within this evolving global polity of overlapping cooperative frameworks
Multilateral nuclear disorder: Let’s rock till we explode
The global nuclear order has so far proven resilient in the face of Russia’s war on Ukraine. European engagement through the EU and NATO can help shore up this uneasy equilibrium
Multilateral space: A European space oddity
Competition among major space powers hinders multilateral action to protect access to outer space. The EU has a key role to play in promoting responsible behaviours and securing the use of space for all
The insignificance of Putin’s latest nuclear bluster
Putin’s attention-seeking plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus underlines his commitment to nuclear risk manipulation – but his blackmail may be losing its potency
Repair, replace, reimburse: Sustaining a European tank coalition for Ukraine
Military help for Ukraine is moving towards serious questions of logistics – but more countries still need to step forward. Here is how the next-stage coalition could look
How to defeat Russia and prevent nuclear armageddon with one weird trick
We are not on a path to nuclear war – but strong deterrence measures from the West can help ensure that scenario remains unlikely
The Leopard plan: How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory
Ukraine needs to move to a new phase of the war if it is to reclaim its territory occupied by Russia. A European plan to supply Leopard tanks should be at the heart of this effort
Specials
Multilateral Matchmaker
Multilateral coalitions are increasingly important for combatting global challenges. Europeans have many eligible – and untapped – potential partner countries, but to stand out they need to ensure their offer is as grounded in these partners’ interests as their own
European Sovereignty Index
The EU can overcome the new challenges it faces and can shape the global order. To achieve this, Europeans will need to improve their joint capacity to act
EU Cohesion Monitor
European cohesion is bouncing back after crisis years. The EU Cohesion Monitor presents new insights on cohesion as an underestimated source of strength and collective action in the EU
EU Coalition Explorer
The Coalition Explorer illustrates the expert opinions of more than 800 respondents who work on European policy and creates a visual understanding of the views held by Europe’s professional political class
European Solidarity Tracker
The European Solidarity Tracker collects and displays instances of pan-European solidarity throughout the coronavirus crisis
Podcasts
Europe Listens: Saving multilateralism with Arancha González Laya and Richard Gowan
In September 2024, the United Nation’s Summit of the Future is set to take place – a crucial moment to mend “eroded trust” between peoples,…
Europe Listens: Exploring the deep seabed with Pradeep Singh
To achieve the ambitions of the European Green Deal, the European Commission insists that healthy oceans and a sustainable maritime economy are crucial. With rising…
Europe Listens: Protecting the high seas with Essam Yassin Mohammed
Around 70 per cent of our planet is covered by the ocean, of which two-thirds fall beyond national jurisdiction. After decades of discussions and negotiations,…
Europe Listens: Governing outer space with Ruvimbo Samanga
The global space economy is worth a whopping $469 billion, and growing fast. Commercial interests are proliferating; more and more countries are launching satellites…
Europe Listens: Combatting online disinformation with Flora Rebello Arduini
On 8 January 2023, following a contentious national election, protestors attacked government buildings in Brazil’s capital. The riots were preceded by years of online disinformation,…
Europe Listens: Overcoming the global digital divide with Jane Munga
Digital technologies are set to transform African economies. Yet, only 40 per cent of Africans accessed the internet in 2022 – well below the…
Europe Listens: Advancing green tech partnerships with Dhanasree Jayaram
Beyond the UN formats, countries around the world are forging hundreds of bilateral and multilateral agreements to advance the clean energy transition. India has emerged…
Europe Listens: Overhauling climate finance with Avinash Persaud
Action on climate financing is long overdue. Inadequate mitigation and adaptation have already led to substantial loss and damage in the most vulnerable countries. But…
Europe Listens: Navigating climate diplomacy with Shauna Aminath
Climate change is an immediate existential threat to the coral islands that make up the Maldives, one of the lowest-lying countries in the world. Recent…
Europe listens…Dr Togzhan Kassenova
As the EU builds up its global footprint, it’s crucial to avoid European naval gazing. Instead, Europe needs to engage partners around the world on…
Events
10 Jun
ECFR’s Election Insights: Implications for Europe’s foreign policy agenda
This webinar will provide a snapshot analysis of election results and their implications for Europe’s foreign policy and security agenda. Featuring perspectives from selected ECFR…
13 May
Sicherheit im Baltikum: Welche Rolle spielt die Brigade Litauen?
Am 8. April 2024 brach das 21-köpfige Vorkommando der Brigade Litauen nach Vilnius auf. Die Bundeswehrangehörigen werden in den nächsten Wochen und Monaten die erste…
8 Nov
The role of Germany in Europe in times of war: Potential for German-Bulgarian cooperation
We will discuss Germany’s role in Europe and will reflect on how the new European order is viewed in Berlin
1 Jul
Carbon border adjustment design: Opportunities for international cooperation
This Policy Dialogue will consider international reactions to the competing policy designs for CBAM, opportunities for cooperation with international partners and the role of international fora in its development such as the WTO and the forthcoming COP26
14 Jun
Deutschland vor der Wahl – Einschätzungen aus der Perspektive internationaler Politik
Der Checkpoint EXTRA findet als Kooperation zwischen der bpb und dem Berliner Büro des European Council on Foreign Relations statt
In the media
Rafael Loss on the comparative strengths of American capabilities versus European capabilities in NATO
For many countries around the world, the G7’s failure to adopt a stronger stance on the war in Gaza represents the starkest example of the West’s duplicity
Rafael Loss comments on the G7 leaders and the war in Gaza
Europe needs more troops to deal with the Russian threat. A change of mentality is needed: maintaining freedom, security and prosperity does not come for free
Rafael Loss analyses the changes at European level regarding compulsory military service
The EU was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. But about a decade ago war returned to the European continent. And that, I believe, shook many societies to their core, including the EU
On the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings, Rafael Loss analyses the challenges faced by the EU
If they green-light the use of ATACMS, that could degrade Russia’s ability to use its territory as a sanctuary for ground operations
Rafael Loss on why Ukraine seeks Washington’s approval to strike targets in Russia