The Neighbourhood: Europe’s enlargement moment
Mark Leonard launches ECFR’s new RE-ENGAGE podcast series with Lykke Friis to explore the future of EU enlargement and Denmark’s role in shaping it
Experts & Staff
Mark Leonard
Director
Areas of expertise
Geopolitics and Geoeconomics; China; EU-Russia relations; transatlantic relations; EU politics and institutions; public diplomacy and nation branding; UK foreign policy
Languages
English, French, German
Biography
Mark Leonard is co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the first pan-European think–tank. His topics of focus include geopolitics and geoeconomics, China, EU politics and institutions. Leonard is a member of the UK Soft Power Council and the UK Foreign Secretary’s External Foreign Policy Board.
Leonard hosts the weekly podcast “Mark Leonards’s World in 30 Minutes” and writes a syndicated column on global affairs for Project Syndicate. Previously he worked as director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform and as director of the Foreign Policy Centre, a think-tank he founded at the age of 24 under the patronage of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. In the 1990s, Leonard worked for the think-tank Demos where his Britain™ report was credited with launching Cool Britannia. Mark has spent time in Washington, D.C. as a Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and as Henry A Kissinger chair in foreign policy and international relations at the US Library of Congress, and in Beijing as a visiting scholar at the Chinese Academy for Social Sciences.
He is a regular speaker and prolific writer and commentator on global issues, the future of Europe, China’s internal politics, and the practice of diplomacy and business in a networked world. His essays have appeared in publications such as Foreign Affairs, the Financial Times, the New York Times, Le Monde, Süddeutsche Zeitung, El Pais, Gazeta Wyborcza, Foreign Policy, the New Statesman, the Daily Telegraph, The Economist, Time, and Newsweek.
As well as writing and commenting frequently in the media on global affairs, Leonard is the author of best-selling books. His first book, Why Europe will run the 21st Century, was published in 2005 and translated into 19 languages. Leonard’s second book, What does China think? was published in 2008 and translated into 15 languages. He has published an edited volume on Connectivity Wars and in September 2021, his latest book on this topic The Age of Unpeace. How Connectivity Causes Conflict was released.
France in turmoil
Mark Leonard welcomes Celia Belin to unpack France’s spiralling political crisis and what comes next for President Emmanuel Macron
Trump’s Gaza plan
Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt to unpack Donald Trump’s peace plan for Gaza and what it means for Israel, Hamas, and Europe
The rise of a worker friendly Republican Party
Mark Leonard welcomes Oren Cass to discuss the Republicans’ turn away from neoliberalism to embracing the working class
Hedging diplomacy: New Delhi’s foreign policy in Trump’s world
Mark Leonard welcomes James Crabtree and Suhasini Haidar to explore India’s foreign policy and its emerging relations with Europe
Drones over Denmark: Russia tests NATO’s defences
Mark Leonard and Ulrike Franke discuss what Russia’s probing of European airspace means for the continent’s security
The dog days of summer: Ukraine battles and diplomacy
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova to break down the summer’s key developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine
The New Politics: Report from Washington
Mark Leonard wraps up ECFR’s summer special series on the “new right” at the National Conservatism Conference in Washington
The New Politics with Balázs Orbán
Mark Leonard welcomes Balázs Orbán to unpack the ideological background of Viktor Orbán’s politics and the roots of national conservatism in Europe
The New Politics with Hélène de Lauzun
Mark Leonard welcomes Hélène De Lauzun to unpack the diverse strands of French conservatism and its role in contemporary politics
Publications
Trump’s European revolution
A major new ECFR poll shows how, six months in, the US president is reshaping European politics and the continent’s geopolitical identity
Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections
Citizens of global powers are upbeat about a second Trump presidency – but this is by no means universal, particularly among traditional US allies
The cross-Channel reset: Trump, Putin, and shifting EU-UK opinion
Voters in both the UK and major EU states are open to compromise. Leaders on both sides of the Channel should use this political space for an ambitious reset
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
The idea of China
China’s ideas could become the country’s next big export. The Idea of China examines Chinese thinking about global order, AI, demographic change, and more – and considers how these ideas could influence the world
A new political map: Getting the European Parliament election right
Mainstream parties are hoping to prevent an anticipated far-right surge in this year’s European Parliament election. But the results of ECFR’s latest opinion poll suggest their current strategy could backfire – and what they should do instead
Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, European leaders need to prevent Vladimir Putin from capitalising on war fatigue in the West. To maintain public support for backing Kyiv in this crucial election year, they should make clear that a Russian victory is not peace
A crisis of one’s own: The politics of trauma in Europe’s election year
European politics is divided between ‘crisis tribes,’ formed from different traumas. Climate and migration are set to be especially influential in this year’s European Parliament election
Living in an à la carte world: What European policymakers should learn from global public opinion
A new global opinion poll for ECFR reveals that many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate into full political alignment. People instead prefer an a la carte arrangement, in which their governments pragmatically select their partners depending on the matter at hand
Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of middle powers
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
Articles
2026: The year we stop pretending it’s just a phase
Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead
Decision time for Europe
Given the Trump administration’s recent statements and policy pronouncements, European leaders no longer have any excuse for failing to map out their own long-term security strategy. If they can get their act together on ending the Ukraine war, they will gain a much stronger position on other key fronts, too
How progressives can win on immigration
For rudderless centre-left parties, the debate around asylum and immigration should be seen not as a necessary evil, but as a political opportunity. By anchoring tougher enforcement in an authentic social-democratic agenda, the left can show that it has better solutions than the far right
What Chinese leaders really think of Trump
According to Chinese academics, economists and retired military officers, the country’s leaders are not losing any sleep over Donald Trump’s America First agenda. In fact, as they see it, the US president is ushering in a world that Chinese strategists have long been preparing for
Britain and Europe are changing together
The nuclear pact recently signed by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer reflects how an emerging post-liberal Europe is taking the form of a defence community. Britain can help shape the continent’s new security order, so long as it banishes the Brexit mindset
Europe after the end of the liberal international order
As Europeans rearm to confront Russian aggression, they also need to figure out how to survive in the age of “unpeace” that Donald Trump and other strongmen are ushering in. The old interdependencies that liberals took for granted no longer ensure peace, prosperity or stability
Europe’s independence day
Incoming German chancellor Friedrich Merz is an unlikely candidate to lead a decisive break with the US. But an erstwhile über-Atlanticist and fiscal conservative might be the only German politician who can credibly bury the country’s economically disastrous “debt brake” and pave the way for a truly independent Europe
A cold front: Denmark’s response to Trump’s desire for Greenland
Trump’s obsession with buying Greenland has turned the island into a geopolitical flashpoint, leaving Europeans uneasy and Denmark navigating choppy waters over the island’s political future
Trump at Davos
Donald Trump’s return marks the start of an anti-Davos age, defined by the lack not only of a global order but also of any desire to create one. The world should expect deeper fragmentation and chaos in the face of unresolved crises and frequent disruptions
2025: The year we get better at being wrong
Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead
Specials
The Power Atlas
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world
What Europeans really want: Five myths debunked
New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs
Podcasts
The world in 2026
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Jana Kobzová, Andrew Small and Alex Vines to discuss upcoming political changes in 2026
Trump attacks Venezuela
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Nacho Torreblanca to discuss what Donald Trump’s capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro means for the world
Predictions and reckonings: From 2025 to 2026
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to look back at the year that was and ahead to what 2026 might bring
Made in China: How Europe can tackle economic coercion
Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke and Andrew Small to discuss how Europeans can combat varieties of Chinese economic coercion
After Doha: What’s next for the Arab world?
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh and Hugh Lovatt, fresh from the Doha Forum, to unravel the geopolitical changes and diplomatic efforts shaping Middle Eastern politics
Trump’s new National Security Strategy
Mark Leonard welcomes Gladden Pappin and Majda Ruge to explore what America’s new National Security Strategy means for Europe
China’s technological dominance
Mark Leonard welcomes Dan Wang to explore China’s evolving technological dominance and how its rivalry with the US and Europe will look in the future
ECFR at 18: Has European foreign policy come of age?
Mark Leonard brings together Carl Bildt, Lykke Friis, and Norbert Röttgen to to unpack how Europe has changed since 2007, when ECFR was founded, and what challenges lie ahead
Trump’s 28-point plan for Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova and Jim O’Brien to unpack the leaked 28-point US-Russia plan for Ukraine and its implications for European security
The future of European air defence
Mark Leonard welcomes Ulrike Franke to unpack the crisis around Europe’s Future Combat Air System
Events
15
Jan
European Power
The World in 2026: Global Public Opinion One Year into the Second Trump Presidency
How do publics around the world view geopolitics one year into the second Trump presidency? ECFR’s 2024 polling revealed that many middle-power societies welcomed Trump’s return to the White House. Yet twelve months on, perceptions of power, polarity, and alignment have shifted towards a multipolar, post-Western world. On the day of the launch of ECFR’s fourth Global Public Opinion Survey, this webinar will reveal how publics across 21 countries including China, India, Turkey, Russia, the…
9
Dec
Asia
Implications for the UK of Europe’s approach to China and economic security
China now poses a deindustrialisation-level shock to Europe’s economic future. The external impact of Chinese overcapacity, involution, and Beijing’s technological leadership and supply-chain dominance in critical future technologies is presenting an existential threat to Europe’s industrial base. The EU is weighing new measures in response, including stricter investment screening, European preference in procurement, a new…
12
May
European Power
The EU-UK summit in the context of Trump 2.0
The much-anticipated EU-UK summit on 19 May, expected to include a defense pact, will be an important step in the reset between London and Brussels, with the conflict in Ukraine having been a powerful vehicule for a rapprochment. At the same time, the UK is desperate to maintain its ‘special relationship’ with the US, to also best…
29
Apr
Asia
The US-China trade war and implications for Europe and the UK
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are engaged in a high-stakes game of chicken in the emerging trade war. With more than 150% tariffs on Chinese goods and a reciprocal response from Beijing on US imports, economic relations between the two sides have essentially come to a halt. Lack of clarity around the US endgame creates…
10
Feb
European Power
The return of President Trump and its implications for the UK and for Europe
Most people in the broader world think President Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace to Ukraine and the Middle East and reduce tensions in US-China relations. Are they right? What do his first few days in office tell us about his vision of the world and foreign policy…
European Power
World views on a second Trump presidency: Alliances, adversaries, and opportunities
As the world prepares for a second Trump presidency and its transformative impact on the global order, Europe faces an urgent need to not only reassess its transatlantic ties but also to rethink engagement with other powers on its path to strategic interdependence. This event which will explore the findings of public opinion polling conducted…
10
Dec
United States
How to cope with Trump 2.0: Ukraine, Nato, China and trade wars
The result of the US election is sending shock waves across the world and Europeans, including the UK, are trying to figure out how it will impact them and what are the best ways to protect their interests. Meanwhile, the campaign for the German elections is in full swing and the outcome will impact Europe’s…
22
Nov
Asia
China’s views in today’s changing global order
With increased US-China competition likely to shape Trump’s second term, significant attention in Washington is focused on the primacists, prioritisers and restrainers vying to shape the incoming administration’s China policy. But this focus on the US often neglects the perspectives and debates within China itself. To help us understand these internal discussions, Mark Leonard and Alicja Bachulska…
16
Sep
United States
American Foreign Policy after the Elections
As discussions intensify on both sides of the Atlantic about the implications of a Trump 2.0 presidency, European leaders are now having to confront a second big unknown in the form of Kamala Harris. How would Trump 2.0 differ from Trump 1.0? Would a President Harris continue Biden’s foreign policy or forge her own path?…
United States
Transatlantic Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in Ukraine from both sides of the Atlantic in the run up to the US presidential and European parliamentary elections. As the war in Ukraine has passed its second anniversary, two…
In the media
Mark Leonard on discrepancy in the reactions of the European public and private sectors to Trump’s behaviour
Mark Leonard on the birth of the post-liberal left
Mark Leonard on the Chinese outlook on a new world order
Mark Leonard on the Gaza ceasefire and the role of the Arab states
Mark Leonard on the future of the EU