The long year: Top foreign policy trends for 2021
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year to come
Experts & Staff
Mark Leonard
Director
Areas of expertise
Geopolitics and Geoeconomics; China; EU-Russia relations; transatlantic relations; EU politics and institutions; public diplomacy and nation branding; UK foreign policy
Languages
English, French, German
Biography
Mark Leonard is co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the first pan-European think tank. His topics of focus include geopolitics and geoeconomics, China, EU politics and institutions.
Leonard hosts the weekly podcast “Mark Leonards’s World in 30 Minutes” and writes a syndicated column on global affairs for Project Syndicate. Previously he worked as director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform and as director of the Foreign Policy Centre, a think tank he founded at the age of 24 under the patronage of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. In the 1990s, Leonard worked for the think tank Demos where his Britain™ report was credited with launching Cool Britannia. Mark has spent time in Washington, D.C. as a Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and in Beijing as a visiting scholar at the Chinese Academy for Social Sciences.
He was Chairman of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Geoeconomics until 2016.
Honoured as a “Young Global Leader” of the World Economic Forum, he spends a lot of time helping governments, companies, and international organisations make sense of the big geo-political trends of the twenty-first century. He is a regular speaker and prolific writer and commentator on global issues, the future of Europe, China’s internal politics, and the practice of diplomacy and business in a networked world. His essays have appeared in publications such as Foreign Affairs, the Financial Times, the New York Times, Le Monde, Süddeutsche Zeitung, El Pais, Gazeta Wyborcza, Foreign Policy, the New Statesman, the Daily Telegraph, The Economist, Time, and Newsweek.
As well as writing and commenting frequently in the media on global affairs, Leonard is author of two best-selling books. His first book, Why Europe will run the 21st Century, was published in 2005 and translated into 19 languages. Leonard’s second book, What does China think? was published in 2008 and translated into 15 languages. He has published an edited volume on Connectivity Wars and is working on a forthcoming book on the same topic.
The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
Most Europeans rejoiced at Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election, but they do not think he can help America make a comeback as the pre-eminent global leader
THINKING BIG WITH Anne-Marie Slaughter
From climate, digital or security - what structures for global cooperation will emerge in a post-Merkel era and Biden presidency?
Top ten foreign policy trends in 2021
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year to come
The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
The event will launch an exciting new report by Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, based on public opinion polling in 11 countries
The coronavirus world order
How can we explain the current crisis of the liberal international order?
Sovereign Europe, hostile world: In conversation with Josep Borrell, HRVP
The EU's High Representative, Josep Borrell, and Mark Leonard discussed why strategic autonomy matters
How the US could return to the Iran nuclear deal
To what extent can and will Iran policy be a priority of the incoming administration? What can Europeans do to bolster transatlantic diplomacy on Iran?
THINKING BIG WITH Joseph S. Nye
Can America come back, as President-elect Joe Biden announced? Mark Leonard debates the idea with Joseph S. Nye
Sovereign Europe, dangerous world: Five agendas to protect Europe’s capacity to act
To manage in this new world, the EU and its members need to embark on a broad-based effort to recover their strategic sovereignty
Publications
The geopolitics of the European Green Deal
The EU should become a global standard-setter for the energy transition, and prepare to manage the profound geopolitical repercussions of the Green Deal in its relationships with its neighbourhood
The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
Most Europeans rejoiced at Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election, but they do not think he can help America make a comeback as the pre-eminent global leader
Sovereign Europe, dangerous world: Five agendas to protect Europe’s capacity to act
To manage in this new world, the EU and its members need to embark on a broad-based effort to recover their strategic sovereignty
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
The Brexit parenthesis: Three ways the pandemic is changing UK politics
The shock of covid-19 in Britain may end the culture-wars politics set off by the Brexit referendum
Europe’s pandemic politics: How the virus has changed the public’s worldview
New research reveals that the crisis has revolutionised citizens’ perceptions of global order – scrambling the distinctions between nationalism and globalism
From plaything to player: How Europe can stand up for itself in the next five years
Introduction The last five years have not been kind to the European Union’s foreign policy. The EU has been less relevant, less active, and less…
Strategic sovereignty: How Europe can regain the capacity to act
The EU needs to learn to think like a geopolitical power
Redefining Europe’s economic sovereignty
Europeans can take steps now to enhance their economic power, without advocating increased protectionism or a retreat from globalisation
How to govern a fragmented EU: What Europeans said at the ballot box
The results of the European election confront EU leaders with a considerable challenge: navigating a new, more fragmented, and polarised political environment
Articles
The Russia strategy Europe needs
The European Union should be in no hurry either to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime or to force a diplomatic crisis. Rather than vacillating between resets and crackdowns, the EU should pursue a strategy of “principled indifference”
The crisis of American power
While America's crisis of democracy has been clear to see in recent months, equally consequential is its crisis of power on the world stage
The long year: Top foreign policy trends for 2021
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year to come
Frugality exposes a Europe in need of optimism and reform
Many people in the European Union’s wealthiest states feel powerless to shape its future
Building back a better transatlantic alliance
Even with a new, far more sympathetic US administration, it will be incumbent on Europe to come to the table as a co-equal power bearing solutions, rather than as a helpless child begging for protection and guidance
The Middle Eastern past is never dead
The normalisation of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (followed quickly by Bahrain) indicates that the Middle East is undergoing a strategic paradigm shift, with the Palestinians left out in the cold. But anyone who thinks that the region’s oldest ongoing conflict has been laid to rest should think again.
Europe’s double bind
The covid-19 pandemic has exposed a gap between European aspirations and actions. If European leaders are serious about defending rules-based multilateralism and securing the European Union’s interests in the twenty-first century, they will need to start coming to terms with today’s geopolitical realities.
Trump’s dirty tricks
Although US President Donald Trump’s efforts to undermine the election are shameless, they are still more subtle than the outright election rigging that one finds in places like Belarus. Like other authoritarian leaders, Trump is deploying a new anti-democratic politics that has yet to be fully comprehended.
The other Putin on Europe’s doorstep
By weaponising immigration and launching new foreign adventures, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is increasingly acting like his Russian counterpart. And though such behaviour speaks to a deteriorating political situation at home, Europeans can no longer assume that Turkey will remain firmly in the Western fold.
Europe’s self-help moment
The covid-19 crisis has created an opening for stronger collective European action. But policymakers must understand that the demands of voters across the continent for greater cooperation do not reflect an appetite for institution-building, but rather a deeper anxiety about losing control in a perilous world.
Specials
What Europeans really want: Five myths debunked
New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs.
Video
Turkey’s role in the Eastern Mediterranean: Threats of Conflict and Prospects for Dialogue
Virtual talk on 17 September 2020 with Ibrahim Kalin on Turkey's position in the current Eastern Mediterranean conflict, the risks of military escalation and prospects for a dialogue with Europe
“War and Peace: Has Trump made the world more dangerous?”
Mark Leonard participates in a debate organised by The Institute of Art and Ideas (IAI) in London
Analysing the General Election results
Jacqueline Minor, Peter Wilding, Professor Sara Hobolt and ECFR's Mark Leonard analyse which direction the new government may take Britain
The British problem – View from the Capitals
The heads of five of our national offices explain their national perspectives on a possible Brexit
Interview with Joseph Nye
Professor Joseph Nye talks to ECFR Director Mark Leonard about his new book "Is the American Century Over?"
To Brexit or not to Brexit
A recent ECFR Black Coffee Morning event brought together three authors of reports on the possibility of “Brexit”
Podcasts
A fair, green and digital recovery – brought to you by Portugal
How can the Portuguese presidency strengthen European strategic autonomy?
Super Mario to the rescue
What are the first challenges Draghi will face in his country and in Brussels?
Stranger in Moscow: Borrell’s unwelcome visit
What lessons can be drawn from Josep Borrell’s controversial visit to Moscow?
The global impact of the European Green Deal
What are the geopolitical repercussions of the European Green Deal?
The future of EU-China-US relations
What are the prospects for transatlantic cooperation on China now that a new US administration is in power?
How Europeans see Biden’s America
How do Europeans assess the future of transatlantic relations?
Top ten foreign policy trends in 2021
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro predict ten bright and bold policy projections for the year to come
The coronavirus world order
How can we explain the current crisis of the liberal international order?
How the US could return to the Iran nuclear deal
To what extent can and will Iran policy be a priority of the incoming administration? What can Europeans do to bolster transatlantic diplomacy on Iran?
Can the Frugals transform the EU?
The geopolitical grouping known as the “frugal four” — Austria, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands — has emerged as a key power centre in this year’s negotiations over the EU’s next budget and the covid-19 recovery fund. Does “frugality” actually reflect the public sentiment in those countries?
In the media
The German newspaper refers to ECFR’s survey on the transatlantic relationship.
Mark Leonard’s response to Hans Kundnani’s article about the meaning of pro-Europeanism
In Europe, Biden faces the core problem of convincing the United States’ chief diplomatic, economic, and military allies to believe in America again, explains Mark Leonard.
The Austrian newspaper refers to ECFR’s latest policy brief on the European Green Deal.
Euronews picks up the joint paper by ECFR and Bruegel proposing seven actions that would provide foreign policy support for the European Green Deal.