2024: The year we embrace predictable surprise
Ten predictions for the foreign policy trends of 2024, and a little bonus
Mark Leonard
Europe needs a new Ukraine strategy
The European Union’s decision to start accession talks with Ukraine represents a symbolic victory rather than a practical one. With Ukraine struggling to secure crucial aid, and its counter-offensive failing to achieve its objectives, it is time to redefine what constitutes a Ukrainian victory and a Russian defeat
Polywar and polyamorous geopolitics
US President Joe Biden’s largely successful response to Russia’s war against Ukraine reflects his vision of the world as a bloc of democracies facing off against revisionist autocracies. But there is growing evidence that this is a minority view, even among some of America’s closest allies
The global consequences of the Israel-Hamas war
The impact of the Israel-Hamas war will reverberate around the world, with consequences for the Middle East, Europe, China, and the United States. While the specific challenges vary, none has an interest in drawing out or widening the conflict
The geopolitics of EU enlargement
The debate surrounding the EU’s potential expansion is no longer really about Ukraine and the Western Balkans. Enlargement is now an existential question with far-reaching implications for the EU and its ability to remain a prominent player in a rapidly changing global environment
This cold war is different
Contrary to how it may appear to many, not least in the US, the new cold war seems to be based not on the old logic of polarisation, but on a new logic of fragmentation. Judging by the growth of the BRICS group of major emerging economies, there is no shortage of countries that find that new logic enticing
The West’s Chinese crossroads
Against the backdrop of the US-China rivalry, it is tempting to ignore recent strategy changes by smaller players like Canada and Hungary. But these two countries offer radically different models for other countries to consider as they navigate an increasingly fraught geopolitical terrain
Governing a post-Western world
Not only has the West failed to convince the rest of the world that it also has a stake in Ukraine’s defence, but this failure is emblematic of a broader shift. The sooner that the United States, Europe, and their allies recognise the limits of the post-1945 international institutions they established, the better off they will be
China Is Ready for a World of Disorder
The very different responses of China and the United States to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed the divergence in Beijing’s and Washington’s thinking. In Washington,…
The Post-American Middle East
The recent ceasefire between Israel and Islamic Jihad, the detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the de-escalation in Yemen have all been accomplished with minimal Western involvement. While this may be just a temporary lull in Middle Eastern violence, it may also offer a glimpse into the multipolar future