America’s trade-off: Israel, Ukraine, and the inescapable China question
The US too often falls for its own superpower myth and fails to prioritise among its foreign policy commitments – including its present China challenge, which has not gone away
United States
Economics front and centre: Why the US-EU summit matters
The upcoming US-EU summit highlights a sharp improvement in transatlantic relations. It could bring meaningful progress for the EU in three economic areas
Why Americans will eventually sour on the war on Ukraine (but not soon)
Support in the US for Ukraine will one day soften. Europeans need to formulate their own plan to continue the long war for when it does
Middle powers, big impact: Africa’s ‘coup belt,’ Russia, and the waning global order
The changing global order has created an enabling environment for the recent spike of takeovers in Africa’s ‘coup belt’ – with Russia and newly assertive middle powers offering themselves as partners to putschists
Primary concern: Trump, Ukraine, and the Republicans’ foreign policy divisions
The candidates for the Republican primaries hold diverging views on the future of US foreign policy. In the event of a Republican victory, Europeans must prepare for an end to American support to Ukraine.
In Ukraine I saw a brave but ravaged land in limbo. It needs a future – it needs NATO
Joe Biden must be bold at this week’s summit, and help to give Kyiv the security that would allow it to rebuild
Leaders, realists, progressives: The three Democratic ‘tribes’ that could shape European relations with America
US policy on Ukraine has reassured Europeans. But as it prepares for re-election, the Biden administration will likely adopt more realist and progressive positions
The German scapegoat: Berlin’s inevitable role in the US presidential election
Germany cannot avoid being dragged into election debates in the US. On defence, it should focus on its own national security interests
To tell the Truth: The Republican party’s Ukraine divide
Mitch McConnell uttered comforting words in Munich, but European policymakers would serve the cause of European defence better by planning for a Trump or DeSantis presidency
A united front: How the US and the EU can move beyond trade tensions to counter China
The Inflation Reduction Act may reduce US dependency on China, but it also risks harming the transatlantic relationship. European governments must position themselves as critical allies for the US in order to preserve their economies – and effectively counter China’s geo-economic challenge.
Publications
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China
Articles
America’s trade-off: Israel, Ukraine, and the inescapable China question
The US too often falls for its own superpower myth and fails to prioritise among its foreign policy commitments – including its present China challenge, which has not gone away
Economics front and centre: Why the US-EU summit matters
The upcoming US-EU summit highlights a sharp improvement in transatlantic relations. It could bring meaningful progress for the EU in three economic areas
Why Americans will eventually sour on the war on Ukraine (but not soon)
Support in the US for Ukraine will one day soften. Europeans need to formulate their own plan to continue the long war for when it does
Middle powers, big impact: Africa’s ‘coup belt,’ Russia, and the waning global order
The changing global order has created an enabling environment for the recent spike of takeovers in Africa’s ‘coup belt’ – with Russia and newly assertive middle powers offering themselves as partners to putschists
Primary concern: Trump, Ukraine, and the Republicans’ foreign policy divisions
The candidates for the Republican primaries hold diverging views on the future of US foreign policy. In the event of a Republican victory, Europeans must prepare for an end to American support to Ukraine.
In Ukraine I saw a brave but ravaged land in limbo. It needs a future – it needs NATO
Joe Biden must be bold at this week’s summit, and help to give Kyiv the security that would allow it to rebuild
Leaders, realists, progressives: The three Democratic ‘tribes’ that could shape European relations with America
US policy on Ukraine has reassured Europeans. But as it prepares for re-election, the Biden administration will likely adopt more realist and progressive positions
The German scapegoat: Berlin’s inevitable role in the US presidential election
Germany cannot avoid being dragged into election debates in the US. On defence, it should focus on its own national security interests
To tell the Truth: The Republican party’s Ukraine divide
Mitch McConnell uttered comforting words in Munich, but European policymakers would serve the cause of European defence better by planning for a Trump or DeSantis presidency
A united front: How the US and the EU can move beyond trade tensions to counter China
The Inflation Reduction Act may reduce US dependency on China, but it also risks harming the transatlantic relationship. European governments must position themselves as critical allies for the US in order to preserve their economies – and effectively counter China’s geo-economic challenge.
Podcasts
The US, Europe, and the art of vassalisation
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Jana Puglierin to discuss EU-US relations
In the media
In this op-ed, Julien Barnes-Dacey and Jeremy Shapiro explain why the West should give up the battle of narratives
The perceived need to adopt a tough stance on China is perhaps the only topic that still attracts broad partisan support
With the Biden-Xi meeting taking place, Agathe Demarais comments on the future of US-China relations
Beijing and Washington will both acknowledge that things are not exactly running smoothly, but do not want things to get worse
The meeting will not change the direction of the relation, but convincing China to stop the shipping of chemicals used in Fetanyl production would by a (bipartisan) win for the US
Agathe Demarais on the Biden-Xi meeting and its potential consequences on the relations between Washington and Beijing
In this op-ed, Agathe Demarais explains why we shouldn’t expect much from the meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in San Francisco