A loyal voter base is allowing Trump to dominate the Republican Party and strengthen his control before the midterms. Now his sidelining of Congress is weakening the traditional checks on presidential power
As Trump digs his heels into a war with Iran, he faces a growing list of domestic pressures. Europeans can press on these points to push Washington towards a ceasefire
If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire
James Talarico roots his foreign policy in a moral framework that could have wide appeal for Democrats—if they follow his lead
Trump’s family and friends are trying—but failing—to broker peace in Gaza, Ukraine and beyond. The network they are building blends diplomacy with profit. Europe needs to find a way to shape the terms
Given the Trump administration’s recent statements and policy pronouncements, European leaders no longer have any excuse for failing to map out their own long-term security strategy. If they can get their act together on ending the Ukraine war, they will gain a much stronger position on other key fronts, too
The American capture of Maduro is a signal event in world geopolitics. Europeans must confront three immediate dilemmas
Hungary’s media landscape exists in a grey zone, where journalism’s boundaries are set by the whims of regulatory power. Under Trump, America is heading in the same direction
Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy reinforces US-led geoeconomic competition and castigates Europe’s cultural and economic decline. Europeans must strengthen their unity, competitiveness and defence capacity on their own terms
The US National Security Strategy 2025 is little more than a guide to Trump’s culture war with Europe. EU member states and institutions, and its political parties and populations, need to resist America’s pernicious influence
The next Trump crisis will come. European governments facing American pressure will need to weigh the costs and benefits of their responses. Here are two scenarios to show what resistance costs, and why those costs are lower than they appear
Trump’s foreign and security policy is the product of factional competition in the White House and a president fixated on short-term wins. Here’s how Europeans should come to terms with this new reality
While Estonia’s geography makes it vulnerable to a Russian invasion, it is also protected due to weakened Russian capabilities, stronger European defence cooperation and its own preparedness. NATO’s European members should be reassured but not complacent
Form exists in the frenzy of Donald Trump’s first months back in power. His foreign policy is his domestic agenda exported—and that is bad news for Europe
Serbian revisionism is on the march and would be greatly strengthened by a Trump win. The EU must prepare a deterrence plan — and take greater responsibility for Western Balkan security
If Trump wins the US presidency, Republicans will likely adapt techniques refined in Viktor Orban’s Hungary as they return to power – with profound implications for both America and Europe
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is a matter of months away. Here are six scary policy scenarios to give Europeans sleepless nights and prepare them for what could be to come
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China
A loyal voter base is allowing Trump to dominate the Republican Party and strengthen his control before the midterms. Now his sidelining of Congress is weakening the traditional checks on presidential power
As Trump digs his heels into a war with Iran, he faces a growing list of domestic pressures. Europeans can press on these points to push Washington towards a ceasefire
If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire
James Talarico roots his foreign policy in a moral framework that could have wide appeal for Democrats—if they follow his lead
Trump’s family and friends are trying—but failing—to broker peace in Gaza, Ukraine and beyond. The network they are building blends diplomacy with profit. Europe needs to find a way to shape the terms
Given the Trump administration’s recent statements and policy pronouncements, European leaders no longer have any excuse for failing to map out their own long-term security strategy. If they can get their act together on ending the Ukraine war, they will gain a much stronger position on other key fronts, too
The American capture of Maduro is a signal event in world geopolitics. Europeans must confront three immediate dilemmas
Hungary’s media landscape exists in a grey zone, where journalism’s boundaries are set by the whims of regulatory power. Under Trump, America is heading in the same direction
Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy reinforces US-led geoeconomic competition and castigates Europe’s cultural and economic decline. Europeans must strengthen their unity, competitiveness and defence capacity on their own terms
The US National Security Strategy 2025 is little more than a guide to Trump’s culture war with Europe. EU member states and institutions, and its political parties and populations, need to resist America’s pernicious influence
Mark Leonard is joined by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş to explore the recent Iran-US ceasefire, regional conflicts, and implications for Europe and global security
Mark Leonard and Elbridge Colby unpack the future of America’s defence strategy, and its implications for Europe and the international order
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Nacho Torreblanca to discuss what Donald Trump’s capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro means for the world
Mark Leonard welcomes Gladden Pappin and Majda Ruge to explore what America’s new National Security Strategy means for Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the US millitary engagement in Venezuela and Trump’s broader defence strategy
Mark Leonard welcomes Oren Cass to discuss the Republicans’ turn away from neoliberalism to embracing the working class
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Tom Wright to unpack the Aspen Security Forum and America’s shifting global priorities
Mark Leonard is joined by Henry Farrell to discuss how power is exercised in contemporary global politics
Mark Leonard welcomes Dan Caldwell and Curt Mills to talk Trump’s foreign policy—and the key influences shaping it
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin to discuss how Europe can respond to Donald Trump’s vision of a transformed transatlantic order
Over the past year, the trajectory of U.S. national security policy has raised sharp questions about strategic clarity, prioritization, and the balance between restraint and intervention. Candidate Donald Trump famously campaigned on an “America First” approach: reducing U.S. involvement overseas, withdrawing from forever wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and emphasizing homeland security…
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics – an unpredictable, fast-changing and often baffling mix of U.S. trade, investment and finance policies that have a direct impact on Europe’s interests. In her latest ECFR policy brief, Agathe Demarais…
Days before a high-stakes NATO summit, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) hosts to a timely webinar on European public attitudes towards Europe’s defence, the first turbulent months of President Trump’s new term, and the capacity of Europe to respond to a changing transatlantic reality. This webinar will launch our brand-new public opinion report,…
The NATO summit on 24-26 June 2025 is likely to be a flashpoint in the transatlantic relationship and another example of how the US, under President Trump 2.0, has changed the way it exerts power. From sweeping and volatile tariffs, a reduced military engagement in Europe, to an alliance with the most powerful US tech companies, the panel will try and decipher the long-term impact of the new US ways to conduct foreign policy
The EU lacks cohesive governance to deploy economic statecraft tools, such as sanctions and export controls, undermining their impact and the bloc’s global credibility. In this webinar, Agathe Demarais and Abraham Newman will discuss their recent policy brief, outlining how the creation of an EU network focused on the design and implementation of these…
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are engaged in a high-stakes game of chicken in the emerging trade war. With more than 150% tariffs on Chinese goods and a reciprocal response from Beijing on US imports, economic relations between the two sides have essentially come to a halt. Lack of clarity around the US endgame creates…
Questa edizione del Transatlantic Forum ha visto il contributo di voci dal mondo accademico, dei think tank e del settore strategico, per discutere delle tensioni tra Stati Uniti e Cina, dalla competizione tecnologica all’evoluzione delle minacce ibride, dal cyberspazio alle infrastrutture critiche. Al centro del dibattito anche il ruolo dell’Europa tra interdipendenza e autonomia strategica,…
Questa edizione de Il Circolo dell’ECFR si è focalizzata sulla risposta dell’Europa alla seconda presidenza Trump. Le tensioni tra gli Stati Uniti di Donald Trump e l’UE si intensificano, segnando probabilmente la fine dell’alleanza transatlantica così come l’abbiamo conosciuta negli ultimi 80 anni. Secondo l’ultimo report-sondaggio di ECFR, la maggioranza degli europei non vede più…
La Conferenza sulla Sicurezza di Monaco e i dialoghi in Arabia Saudita tra americani e russi hanno messo in luce il tentativo di creare un nuovo ordine mondiale, che potrebbe tuttavia minacciare l’assetto liberale e, soprattutto, indebolire l’Europa. La nuova amministrazione Trump, principale artefice di questi cambiamenti, rischia di mettere gli europei gli uni contro…
Si tratta del sesto appuntamento di una serie di working lunch realizzati congiuntamente da ECFR Roma, SDA Bocconi e l’Institute for European Policymaking @ Bocconi University. L’arrivo di Donald Trump e la svolta protezionistica degli Stati Uniti costringe Unione europea e Cina a ridefinire i loro rapporti. L’approccio aggressivo sul commercio dell’amministrazione americana può favorire…
ECFR polls on European attitudes towards Donald Trump’s policies
ECFR polls show low levels of trust in the US
ECFR poll: European’s trust in the US at record low
ECFR Polls see a decrease in Europeans’ trust in the USA
