Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
United States
Transatlantic drift: UK-EU defence cooperation in the second Trump era
Donald Trump’s re-election is calling America’s commitment to transatlantic security into question. The UK and the EU should deepen their defence relationship in the face of external aggression
Touching the void: Human rights in foreign policy under Trump 2.0
Donald Trump’s second presidential administration is imminent. The European Union should prioritise international collaboration to challenge America’s likely hardline approach to human rights
Reste calme: Why Europeans should take a measured approach towards Trump in Africa
During his first presidency, Donald Trump’s Africa policy was defined by a series of gaffs and confused foreign policy decisions. His re-election is a wake-up call to European governments that building a strong relationship with the world’s fastest-growing continent is more vital than ever
The new Futurism: What a Meloni-Musk alliance could mean for Europe
Elon Musk’s bold vision for technological progress aligns with Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s nationalist agenda, offering Italy’s right-wing movement a modern cultural framework while posing challenges for European unity
Between two Donalds: How Tusk’s relationship with Trump could foster EU-US cooperation
The United States and Poland have a historic allyship. Despite Donald Tusk and Donald Trump harbouring opposing ideological motivations, there remains scope for the two countries to work together in the interest of European security
Up close and personnel: What Donald Trump’s administrative picks mean for US foreign policy and Europe
Donald Trump is choosing the cabinet for his second administration. Who will oversee key foreign policy positions – and whether they are a ‘primacist’, ‘prioritiser’, or ‘restrainer’ – will determine America’s future global outreach
What Trump’s election means for Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, Piotr Buras, Anna Kuchenbecker, Maria Simeonova, and Arturo Varvelli to discuss what the outcome of the US election means for Europe
Dangerous manoeuvres: How Israel and Iran are preparing for Trump 2.0
As Donald Trump prepares for his second US presidency, Iranian and Israeli military manoeuvring during President Biden’s lame-duck period risks drawing the US into all-out war in the Middle East
Living in Trump’s world
Faced with the threat that Donald Trump poses to Europe’s economic and military security, European leaders must avoid both panic and complacency. The best way to do that is to use the time between now and 20 January 2025, to agree on their common interests and work out how to defend them
Publications
Trump’s tinderbox: US politics and the next war in the Balkans
Serbian revisionism is on the march and would be greatly strengthened by a Trump win. The EU must prepare a deterrence plan — and take greater responsibility for Western Balkan security
The Orbanisation of America: Hungary’s lessons for Donald Trump
If Trump wins the US presidency, Republicans will likely adapt techniques refined in Viktor Orban’s Hungary as they return to power – with profound implications for both America and Europe
Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is a matter of months away. Here are six scary policy scenarios to give Europeans sleepless nights and prepare them for what could be to come
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China
Articles
Transatlantic drift: UK-EU defence cooperation in the second Trump era
Donald Trump’s re-election is calling America’s commitment to transatlantic security into question. The UK and the EU should deepen their defence relationship in the face of external aggression
Touching the void: Human rights in foreign policy under Trump 2.0
Donald Trump’s second presidential administration is imminent. The European Union should prioritise international collaboration to challenge America’s likely hardline approach to human rights
Reste calme: Why Europeans should take a measured approach towards Trump in Africa
During his first presidency, Donald Trump’s Africa policy was defined by a series of gaffs and confused foreign policy decisions. His re-election is a wake-up call to European governments that building a strong relationship with the world’s fastest-growing continent is more vital than ever
The new Futurism: What a Meloni-Musk alliance could mean for Europe
Elon Musk’s bold vision for technological progress aligns with Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s nationalist agenda, offering Italy’s right-wing movement a modern cultural framework while posing challenges for European unity
Between two Donalds: How Tusk’s relationship with Trump could foster EU-US cooperation
The United States and Poland have a historic allyship. Despite Donald Tusk and Donald Trump harbouring opposing ideological motivations, there remains scope for the two countries to work together in the interest of European security
Up close and personnel: What Donald Trump’s administrative picks mean for US foreign policy and Europe
Donald Trump is choosing the cabinet for his second administration. Who will oversee key foreign policy positions – and whether they are a ‘primacist’, ‘prioritiser’, or ‘restrainer’ – will determine America’s future global outreach
Dangerous manoeuvres: How Israel and Iran are preparing for Trump 2.0
As Donald Trump prepares for his second US presidency, Iranian and Israeli military manoeuvring during President Biden’s lame-duck period risks drawing the US into all-out war in the Middle East
Living in Trump’s world
Faced with the threat that Donald Trump poses to Europe’s economic and military security, European leaders must avoid both panic and complacency. The best way to do that is to use the time between now and 20 January 2025, to agree on their common interests and work out how to defend them
Art of the deal: Four ways Europeans can find new trade partners in the Trump era
Trump’s trade policy is likely to harm European trade with America. Decision-makers can start to mitigate this now
Trump’s return is terrible news for Ukraine. Europe should step into the breach – but will it?
With Germany’s government collapsing and Europeans so divided in their response to Trump, unity is essential yet elusive
Podcasts
Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine and international efforts for peace
What Trump’s election means for Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, Piotr Buras, Anna Kuchenbecker, Maria Simeonova, and Arturo Varvelli to discuss what the outcome of the US election means for Europe
Swamp Chronicles: Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Mark Leonard, and Jeremy Shapiro on the results of the US election
In this bonus episode of Swamp Chronicles, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Mark Leonard about the results of the US election
US election special: Donald Trump wins
Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the results of the 2024 US election
Swamp Chronicles: Célia Belin and Madja Ruge on the foreign policy of the next US administration
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Célia Belin and Majda Ruge about the US election and the various foreign policy tribes within the Democratic and Republican party
Swamp Chronicles: Fiona Hill on US leadership, Ukraine’s future, and the post-election world
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Fiona Hill about the future of transatlantic relations and the war in Ukraine after the election
Swamp Chronicles: Ed Luce on what is at stake in the 2024 election
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro talk to Ed Luce to talk about what either a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump victory would mean for America, US foreign policy, and Europe
Swamp Chronicles: Matt Duss on progressive foreign policy in the Middle East and Ukraine
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro welcome to Matt Duss to discuss American policy in the Middle East and the future of progressive foreign policy
Kamala Harris and the future of US foreign policy
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss Kamala Harris’s foreign policy
Swamp Chronicles: Ken Weinstein on Trump and the Indo-Pacific
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro welcome Ken Weinstein to discuss why and how Trump’s negotiating tactics could strengthen the US foreign policy position, and help forge alliances against China
Events
24 Sep
EU sanctions for a conflict around Taiwan: What’s Europe’s leverage against China?
As the United States shifts its focus toward Southeast Asia and China, Europe faces a critical moment in evaluating its own approach to a potential…
16 Sep
American Foreign Policy after the Elections
As discussions intensify on both sides of the Atlantic about the implications of a Trump 2.0 presidency, European leaders are now having to confront a…
17 Jul
Transizione energetica, tecnologia e geopolitica: quali scenari strategici per Europa & Italia?
La sfida tecnologica posta dalla transizione energetica è un fattore dirimente di competizione tra gli attori internazionali, con implicazioni critiche sul futuro assetto geoeconomico globale, come reso evidente dalle tensioni nelle relazioni commerciali tra Stati Uniti, Cina e Unione Europea. Allo stesso tempo, la proiezione esterna degli attori internazionali e lo sforzo di costruzione di nuove partnership e collaborazioni sono meccanismi essenziali per lo sviluppo di catene del valore resilienti
9 Jul
Still standing together: A NATO summit on Ukraine’s fate
As leaders are about to take pivotal decisions for Ukraine’s fate at the NATO summit, join us for a discussion about pathways and policy options for…
1 Jul
Dormant NATO: Future Prospects and Challenges
Russia’s war against Ukraine has shown how much the Europeans are still dependent on the US to ensure their security, despite all the talk of…
27 Jun
75 anni di NATO e Italia: stato dell’arte e sfide future
In occasione del 75esimo anniversario della NATO, la conferenza farà il punto sia sulla NATO nel contesto attuale e futuro, sia soprattutto sul ruolo dell’Italia nell’alleanza atlantica e il rapporto tra quest’ultima e gli interessi nazionali
12 Jun
The Crossroads of Democracy: Foreign Policy Implications of the 2024 US Presidential Election
Foreign policy seldom plays much of a role in American presidential elections, but the consequences of those contests can be profound for America’s allies in…
12 Jun
Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico
La discussione “Corridoio India-Medio Oriente-Europa: tra sfide attuali e potenziale strategico”, organizzata dall’ufficio di Roma dello European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) ed ELEC – European League for Economic Cooperation, avrà luogo, in forma virtuale, mercoledì 12 giugno 2024 dalle ore 16:30 alle ore 18:00 sulla piattaforma Zoom
8 May
Rome Foreign Policy Club, Terza Edizione – Road to November 2024: prospettive e scenari globali delle elezioni americane
Nella sua edizione 2024, il Rome Foreign Policy Club riunisce giovani ricercatori italiani under 40 per costruire ipotesi di scenario che possano supportare la definizione di policy da parte del Ministero per gli Affari Esteri e la Cooperazione Internazionale. L’evento più significativo per l’anno in corso è indubbiamente rappresentato dalle elezioni americane di novembre il cui esito avrà enormi implicazioni su due aspetti cruciali del contesto internazionale: i rapporti con Cina e Sud Globale e le relazioni con Mosca alla luce del conflitto in Ucraina
26 Mar
Transatlantic Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in…
In the media
He can chart a new direction on policy toward Iran in ways that no other US president has managed
In her op-ed, Ellie Geranmayeh proposes how Trump could make his mark with a new Iran deal
Maddalena Procopio on the Lobito Corridor as clear positioning of the United States in Africa towards China
President-elect Donald Trump’s return to power is unnerving but, as I have argued previously, America will not turn into a dictatorship overnight — or in four years
Trump is different and the world is different
