Patience and pragmatism: Moscow’s view on the Israel-Iran-US war
Russia will likely try to keep the Iranian regime weak and out of Western reach, hoping to exploit any deal for its own gains
Kadri Liik
Putin in Kursk: The meaning of political theatre
Putin’s visit to Kursk revealed an effort to buy time and keep focused on his ultimate war goals
Caution and embrace: How Europeans should treat exiles from Putin’s Russia
Europeans should allow their countries to be hosts for free debate among the Russian emigrés of the 21st century. But they should resist the temptation to view the exiles as channels of influence to reform Russia
Old order dying: What European decision-makers think of Russia
Vladimir Putin may find his war on Ukraine toughens up the West rather than hastens its demise
Putin’s archaic war: Russia’s newly outlawed professional class – and how it could one day return
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is effectively ‘demodernising’ Russia. Military victories for Moscow will make it inordinately harder for more democratic-minded, if not pro-Western, successors to restore Russia to the international community
War of obsession: Why Putin is risking Russia’s future
The invasion marks the beginning of a new era for not just the European security order but also Russian society
Biden meets Putin: What lies behind Russia’s military build-up
Moscow’s armed presence on Ukraine’s border may be connected to Vladimir Putin’s long-standing desire to discuss and change Europe’s geopolitical order
Russia, elections, and the West: Ten years later
If the Kremlin sees the Duma election result as a buffer that will allow it to safely prepare for a transition at the top, the Russian political system might still find a way to evolve. But, if it views the result as confirmation that the system works just fine, its ‘victory’ really is a Pyrrhic one
Biden meets Putin: America, Russia, and the return of diplomacy
The Geneva summit recalled the power of old-fashioned diplomacy and working patiently away at difficult problems
The Nord Stream 2 dispute and the transatlantic alliance
Nord Stream 2 has become a suitcase without a handle: hard to abandon; hard to take along
Publications
Farce then tragedy: Russian views of the West and what they mean for Ukraine
How the Kremlin’s view of a declining US and a mercurial Europe shapes the prospects for a Trump-Putin deal
From Russia with love: How Moscow courts the global south
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has been competing with the West for the support of the rest of the world. But with all of its relationships now subordinate to its war effort, Moscow’s foreign policy is weakened
The old is dying and the new cannot be born: A power audit of EU-Russia relations
ECFR’s new EU-Russia power audit reveals a picture of success in decoupling from Moscow – and suggests the bloc could emerge stronger from the crisis
It’s complicated: Russia’s tricky relationship with China
The West does not have an opportunity to prompt a policy U-turn in Moscow that divides Russia and China. But it could give Russia space to hedge against China in key areas
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
Push back, contain, and engage: How the EU should approach relations with Russia
The bloc should reframe how it speaks of human rights and democracy, while developing closer security and military links with select neighbours
Russia’s relative resilience: Why Putin feels vindicated by the pandemic
Covid-19 has damaged Russia’s economy and President Vladimir Putin’s political agenda
The last of the offended: Russia’s first post-Putin diplomats
Russia’s new generation of foreign policy professionals bring with them a shift in attitudes that challenges centrality of “the West” in Russian foreign policy
Defender of the faith? How Ukraine’s Orthodox split threatens Russia
Introduction An average Westerner may well have overlooked the potentially seismic geopolitical event of 6 January 2019. On that snowy Sunday – Epiphany in western…
Winning the normative war with Russia: An EU-Russia Power Audit
The path to winning the normative war will not go so much through countering Russia as through improving Europe’s resilience and reinvigorating its model
Articles
Patience and pragmatism: Moscow’s view on the Israel-Iran-US war
Russia will likely try to keep the Iranian regime weak and out of Western reach, hoping to exploit any deal for its own gains
Putin in Kursk: The meaning of political theatre
Putin’s visit to Kursk revealed an effort to buy time and keep focused on his ultimate war goals
Caution and embrace: How Europeans should treat exiles from Putin’s Russia
Europeans should allow their countries to be hosts for free debate among the Russian emigrés of the 21st century. But they should resist the temptation to view the exiles as channels of influence to reform Russia
Old order dying: What European decision-makers think of Russia
Vladimir Putin may find his war on Ukraine toughens up the West rather than hastens its demise
Putin’s archaic war: Russia’s newly outlawed professional class – and how it could one day return
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is effectively ‘demodernising’ Russia. Military victories for Moscow will make it inordinately harder for more democratic-minded, if not pro-Western, successors to restore Russia to the international community
War of obsession: Why Putin is risking Russia’s future
The invasion marks the beginning of a new era for not just the European security order but also Russian society
Biden meets Putin: What lies behind Russia’s military build-up
Moscow’s armed presence on Ukraine’s border may be connected to Vladimir Putin’s long-standing desire to discuss and change Europe’s geopolitical order
Russia, elections, and the West: Ten years later
If the Kremlin sees the Duma election result as a buffer that will allow it to safely prepare for a transition at the top, the Russian political system might still find a way to evolve. But, if it views the result as confirmation that the system works just fine, its ‘victory’ really is a Pyrrhic one
Biden meets Putin: America, Russia, and the return of diplomacy
The Geneva summit recalled the power of old-fashioned diplomacy and working patiently away at difficult problems
The Nord Stream 2 dispute and the transatlantic alliance
Nord Stream 2 has become a suitcase without a handle: hard to abandon; hard to take along
Podcasts
East meets West in Ankara: Inside the prisoner swap with Russia
The prisoner exchange between the West and Russia last week was the largest swap since the end of the cold war. At Turkey’s Ankara…
Speeding like a troika: Russia’s uncertain futures
In this final episode, we discuss how the war has transformed Russian society and political culture, and outline possible scenarios for its medium to long term political trajectory
Under the Overcoat: Russian foreign policy: from a U-Turn over the Atlantic to the zigzags of history
This podcast explores deeper trends beneath the surface of Russia’s daily politics. In this episode, we delve deeper into Russia’s foreign policy, taking a long-term perspective.
Under the Overcoat: But the people are silent
This podcast explores deeper trends beneath the surface of Russia’s daily politics. In this episode, we examine public opinion in Russia
Under the Overcoat: Dead Souls, Volume Two
This podcast explores deeper trends beneath the surface of Russia’s daily politics. In this episode, we dive deeper into Russia’s economy during the war on Ukraine
Under the Overcoat: Are we the baddies? Russian civil-military relations and the bomb
This podcast explores deeper trends beneath the surface of Russia’s daily politics. In this episode, we analyse who is really in charge of the Russian military and its nuclear weapons.
Under the overcoat: The death of a clerk
How do Russian officials “coexist” with the war nearly two years after the invasion? How has the bureaucratic system adapted to the requirements of the…
Under the overcoat: God save the Tsar
The Russian Orthodox Church is supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine in its sermons, sending priests to the front, and collecting humanitarian aid for soldiers…
Under the Overcoat: the past is unpredictable
On 1 September, Russian high schools transitioned to new “patriotic” history textbooks authored by one of Russia’s staunchest conservatives, former culture minister Vladimir Medinsky
A view from Moscow
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Kadri Liik and Valerie Hopkins to discuss what Russian society really thinks about war in Ukraine
Events
Wider Europe
Don’t wait for Washington: What the EU can do for Ukraine and its own security
After taking office, Donald Trump did not stop the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Yet, there are high expectations that his administration will at least attempt a ceasefire in the coming months. Both Ukraine and the EU countries have been waiting to see the US strategy for the settlement and calibrate their next…
Wider Europe
A “State-Civilization”: Russia’s ideological renewal after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine
This webinar will explore the role of ideology in the day-to-day management of the Russian political regime
Wider Europe
Charm offensive: What should the West make of Moscow’s Efforts to Court the Global South
Exploring Russia’s global engagement and its implications for the West
European Security
Who controls the Russian military?
What are the political dynamics surrounding the Russian military? Exploring potential scenarios for Russia’s civil-military development and implications for NATO and Europe
Wider Europe
Power audit of EU-Russia relations: How Europeans are learning to handle a new reality
Concluding that Russia poses a threat and that the EU let its dependencies grow too deep, the bloc so far attempted to decouple from Moscow. How should Europeans navigate the adversarial relationship in the future?
It’s complicated: The Russia-China Axis
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
Wider Europe
The role of outside powers in Ukraine
Do any outside powers have any chance of bringing Russia and Ukraine closer to peace?
Wider Europe
Tensions in the East: How to strengthen a common European position vis-à-vis Russia?
This webinar will bring together a collection of EU and British views to see where everyone stands on the Russia-Ukraine crisis
Asia
China-Russia – Strategic alignment or alliance in the making?
This panel is part of the annual Japan-Europe Core Group Warsaw 2022 on “The Future of Russia-China Relations – Implications for European and Japanese Foreign Policy
Wider Europe
What to expect from the Putin-Biden summit?
What, if anything, can one say about the longer-term perspectives for the US-Russia relationship?
In the media
Kadri Liik on Russian emigration
Kadri Liik on the new Estonian ambassador to Sweden
Kadri Liik on smaller eastern European states’ fears of being ceded to Russia by big powers as part of a wider deal
I do not see either Kyiv or Moscow modifying their basic positions
Kadri Liik on the prospects for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine
Kadri Liik on the relation between Putin and Trump