Reducing military assistance to Ukraine will put the country in such a precarious and unpredictable situation that Moscow will have even fewer incentives to come to the table
Russia has gained the upper hand in its war on Ukraine. To reverse Moscow’s progress, the West will need to invest more in supporting Kyiv. With this in mind, here are three scenarios for what could happen in 2024
The question of Nagorno-Karabakh is unlikely to be discussed any time soon after Azerbaijan took control of the region in September. Europeans should now diplomatically engage with all sides to prevent further escalation, while supporting Armenia’s domestic political stability and strengthening its defence capabilities
Geopolitical shifts created an opportune moment for Azerbaijan to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh. With the current ceasefire on shaky ground, the EU needs to use the leverage it has to prevent further escalation
The Wagner mutiny showed that Western states cannot expect a challenge from within to end Russia’s war
Ukraine needs fighter jets to counter Russia’s changing military approach. The US should learn from last year’s delay over tank deliveries and approve their release as soon as possible
Military help for Ukraine is moving towards serious questions of logistics – but more countries still need to step forward. Here is how the next-stage coalition could look
Russia is likely to make some progress in the first half of 2023, but it may lack the capability to hold on to its gains
European leaders must shift from supplying only short-term military support for Ukraine to providing long-term strategic assistance
Putin’s mobilisation is unlikely to change the direction of the war – if Ukraine’s Western allies remain steadfast in their support
The EU’s accession process ignores defence while NATO cannot cover all the candidates. Tailored defence cooperation roadmaps offer a promising path to protect Europe’s periphery without NATO membership
The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive, but prevail
The EU and its member states need to make an urgent commitment to Ukraine’s security and long-term commitment to its European future. If they do not, they risk alienating the very Ukrainians they seek to support
The EU should conclude a security compact with Ukraine. Such an agreement would help the country defend itself against Russia and maximise the effectiveness of European military support
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support
Russia’s capacity to carry out large-scale military operations against Black Sea states allows it to coerce and extort them
The EU’s work on its Strategic Compass should include debates on the special status states’ future role in European defence
The bloc should reframe how it speaks of human rights and democracy, while developing closer security and military links with select neighbours
The EU’s tendency to shy away from security issues has helped make covert operations and military threats Russia’s tools of choice in the region
If the EU is to be more geopolitically influential in its own neighbourhood, it needs to start developing strategic security partnerships with key neighbours to the east and the south
Reducing military assistance to Ukraine will put the country in such a precarious and unpredictable situation that Moscow will have even fewer incentives to come to the table
Russia has gained the upper hand in its war on Ukraine. To reverse Moscow’s progress, the West will need to invest more in supporting Kyiv. With this in mind, here are three scenarios for what could happen in 2024
The question of Nagorno-Karabakh is unlikely to be discussed any time soon after Azerbaijan took control of the region in September. Europeans should now diplomatically engage with all sides to prevent further escalation, while supporting Armenia’s domestic political stability and strengthening its defence capabilities
Geopolitical shifts created an opportune moment for Azerbaijan to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh. With the current ceasefire on shaky ground, the EU needs to use the leverage it has to prevent further escalation
The Wagner mutiny showed that Western states cannot expect a challenge from within to end Russia’s war
Ukraine needs fighter jets to counter Russia’s changing military approach. The US should learn from last year’s delay over tank deliveries and approve their release as soon as possible
Military help for Ukraine is moving towards serious questions of logistics – but more countries still need to step forward. Here is how the next-stage coalition could look
Russia is likely to make some progress in the first half of 2023, but it may lack the capability to hold on to its gains
European leaders must shift from supplying only short-term military support for Ukraine to providing long-term strategic assistance
Putin’s mobilisation is unlikely to change the direction of the war – if Ukraine’s Western allies remain steadfast in their support
In Searching for Deutschland’s last pre-election episode, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin review the Munich Security Conference, the US-Russia talks on Ukraine, and what the new era…
The prisoner exchange between the West and Russia last week was the largest swap since the end of the cold war. At Turkey’s Ankara airport,…
Mark Leonard welcomes Gustav Gressel and Jeremy Shapiro to understand what factors will shape a third year of war in Ukraine
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Michael Kofman and Gustav Gressel to discuss the military situation in Ukraine
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Gustav Gressel and Kirill Shamiev to talk about the consequences of the war in Gaza for Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Gustav Gressel to talk about sending fighter jets to Ukraine
Mark Leonard, Camille Grand, Gustav Gressel, Jana Puglierin, and Jeremy Shapiro discuss what the Leopard 2 decision means for the war in Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
What are the biggest challenges in building greater European sovereignty in defence? And how will this effort be funded?
As the situation at the Ukrainian border escalates, Mark Leonard and his guests talk about the recent developments and the state of play at the ground
With the contentious Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, and the US announcing it would pause military aid to Ukraine, Kyiv faces mounting pressure
Nearly three years into the full-scale war, Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience and adaptability to counter Moscow’s relentless attacks. Now, President Zelensky has unveiled Ukraine’s…
In challenging times for Ukraine, despite public appraisals following the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ten-year mark of the Russian…
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
What can the EU and NATO do to reduce the risk of escalation in the region?
What are the intentions behind the military build-up? How likely are the chances of escalation beyond the Donbas? How should the EU respond?
What the Russians are currently doing in the Baltic Sea is testing the cohesion of NATO and Europe. It is a demonstration of power aiming to probe to what extent this cohesion can be weakened
Gustav Gressel on the impact of the Trump presidency on the war in Ukraine
Gustav Gressel on the ceasefire agreement between russia and ukraine
Gustav Gressel on the Kursk defeat of the Ukrainian army in Russian territories
Gustav Gressel on Trump’s pick for director of national intelligence
There are similarities and differences between today’s situation and that of 2014. The biggest difference is that at that time Russia pretended not to be an active participant
Gustav Gressel on the current peace negotiations in Ukraine