Russia’s military manoeuvres at the Belarus border – a message to the West
The Kremlin knows that intervening militarily would lose it the goodwill of the Belarusian people. But it does not rule out a managed transition to a candidate of its choice.
Gustav Gressel
Russia’s nuclear deterrence principles: what they imply, and what they do not
Russia’s nuclear policy has long been shrouded in secrecy. But a newly published presidential decree on nuclear deterrence clarifies some issues while still leaving ample room for speculation.
How a US withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty would benefit the Kremlin
A US withdrawal from the agreement would shift the blame from a non-compliant Moscow onto Washington, fuelling anti-Americanism and, perhaps, calls for a US military withdrawal from Europe
The EU’s strategic sovereignty starts in Eastern Europe
The real test of the EU’s power and its strategic sovereignty will be in how it deals with external problems – not least those in its neighbourhood
The sanctions straitjacket on Russia’s defence sector
Maintaining a self-sufficient defence-industrial complex has long been an uphill struggle for Russia – and recent sanctions have only steepened its climb
Russia’s Ukraine policy: Change to stay the same
The Kremlin is losing long-time Ukraine policy chief, Vladislav Surkov. But his successor has more in common with “Putin’s Rasputin” than first meets the eye.
Murder in Berlin: Not just Germany’s problem
The Tiergarten hitman travelling freely across the Schengen area should prompt reflection in European capitals, and greater demands of Berlin to act. But a pan-European response remains unforthcoming.
Putin’s Minsk maskirovka: Will the West ‘capitulate’?
Zelensky and EU leaders want the Normandy summit to show they are giving diplomacy a chance. But the risk all lies on their side, not Putin’s
Open Skies: Trump’s next big blunder?
Partisan argument in Washington is helping undermine the Open Skies Treaty. The US could lose one of the most useful instruments in its relations with Russia.
Managed chaos: Russia’s deal with Turkey on northern Syria
Russia is now in charge of a multi-front war. It will need to manage relations between multiple local actors very carefully.