Marine Le Pen feels strengthened by the victories of Orban and Vucic. Her victory would lead to an alliance between illiberal democracies and a push against sanctions on Russia
Media mentions – ECFR Rome
Without London, Europe had already lost an important piece of its military capabilities in a broader sense, and I believe that Berlin will try to carve out a leading role in this field as well
Post-summit statements made it clear that the meeting was icy. Systemic rivalry is a new reality
Putin’s decision is increasingly opening a window of political opportunity for countries like Poland to review and re-conceptualize their role within the EU
In the last 30 days, Poland has changed its attitude towards both the EU and the US. With the US it was in open conflict, this war is changing that
The most likely outcome now is that Putin will intensify his efforts and switch to a ‘dirty’ war strategy to increase the human cost for Ukrainians and force them to capitulate
Joe Biden comes to Europe as the obvious leader of an unexpectedly reinvigorated transatlantic alliance
I don’t think we will see many Syrian or Libyan mercenaries in Donbas. It is also doubtful that they would be useful to the Russians
The integration of defence industries is a preliminary and paramount step for German and Italian investments to be perceived complementary, rather than competitive, to the other industries
There is a danger that the West’s solidarity with Ukraine will trump its previous support for the Belarusian opposition. Indeed, the Belarusian democratic movement may find it harder to gain attention
Pavel Slunkin and Andrew Wilson’s analysis on Belarus’ government’s support for Russia on the invasion of Ukraine