Middle power dreaming: The geopolitics of Angola’s emergence
Angola is increasingly active in the world. Here is how Europeans can cooperate with this rising middle power
Re:Order
ECFR’s flagship Re:Order project explores emerging visions of the global order, as well as the interplay between economic might and geopolitical influence. Re:Order seeks to equip European policymakers and citizens with data-driven analysis and practical recommendations for collective action in an increasingly fragmented geopolitical and economic landscape.
Re:Order is supported by Stiftung Mercator.
Featured
Pivot to Europe: India’s back-up plan in Trump’s world
Tensions with Trump will prompt India to seek rapprochement with Beijing, but the underlying competitive dynamics in China-India relations are unlikely to change. Against this backdrop, Europe offers a promising alternative to balance risks
Developing development: Six ways to rethink European foreign aid
Global commitment to development assistance is far from where it was a decade ago. Off the back of the International Conference on Financing for Development, European policymakers should look towards adapting their approach to this new reality
Disintegrated deterrence: What Trump’s National Defense Strategy means for Europe
Donald Trump has rolled out America’s stark new National Defense Strategy. Europeans need to be prepared to take control of their own defence future
Keep ice cool: How Europeans should respond to Trump’s Greenland tariff threats
Rather than panicking or posturing, European leaders should prioritise EU unity, pinpoint their leverage and consider buying time
European Power
Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump raising…
Seven things to know about the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine
Ukraine receives a vital lifeline, but it is not coming from immobilised Russian reserves
Africa
Navigating multipolarity: Angola’s middle power ambitions
In 2025, Angola has gained increased visibility on the global stage through its presidency of the African Union and hosting the US-Africa Business Summit as well as the 7th AU–EU Summit in Luanda last month. Despite internal challenges, such as inequality and weak institutional capacity, the country has managed to position itself as an aspiring middle power with…
2
Dec
European Power
A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics – an unpredictable, fast-changing and often baffling mix of U.S. trade, investment and finance policies that have a direct impact on Europe’s interests. In her latest ECFR policy brief, Agathe Demarais…
Middle power dreaming: The geopolitics of Angola’s emergence
Angola is increasingly active in the world. Here is how Europeans can cooperate with this rising middle power
Asia
India after Trump: America’s Turn, China’s Challenge, and Europe’s Opportunity
Donald Trump’s renewed attacks on India have prompted New Delhi to reassess its diplomatic strategy, leading to greater hedging and an emphasis on “multi-alignment.” While tensions with Washington may push India toward limited fence-mending with Beijing, the underlying competitive dynamics of China-India relations remain unchanged. At the same time, Russia’s strategic value is in decline,…
Pivot to Europe: India’s back-up plan in Trump’s world
Tensions with Trump will prompt India to seek rapprochement with Beijing, but the underlying competitive dynamics in China-India relations are unlikely to change. Against this backdrop, Europe offers a promising alternative to balance risks
Developing development: Six ways to rethink European foreign aid
Global commitment to development assistance is far from where it was a decade ago. Off the back of the International Conference on Financing for Development, European policymakers should look towards adapting their approach to this new reality
Publications
Middle power dreaming: The geopolitics of Angola’s emergence
Angola is increasingly active in the world. Here is how Europeans can cooperate with this rising middle power
Pivot to Europe: India’s back-up plan in Trump’s world
Tensions with Trump will prompt India to seek rapprochement with Beijing, but the underlying competitive dynamics in China-India relations are unlikely to change. Against this backdrop, Europe offers a promising alternative to balance risks
Markets, migrants, microchips: European power in a world of demographic change
European policymakers should take the long view on demographic change, strengthening Europe’s place in the world through stronger international partnerships, the use of technology and EU enlargement
Transatlantic twilight: European public opinion and the long shadow of Trump
A new ECFR poll points to Europeans’ widespread (but not universal) reassessment of the transatlantic relationship, and extensive opportunities for the new US president to divide them if they do not work together
Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections
Citizens of global powers are upbeat about a second Trump presidency – but this is by no means universal, particularly among traditional US allies
Brazil: Europe’s bridge to the global south
Brazil and Europe share many similarities: both seek autonomy amid escalating US-China tensions – while championing multilateralism and navigating democratic pressures for a values-based foreign policy. However, their potential for collaboration remains largely untapped
Articles
Disintegrated deterrence: What Trump’s National Defense Strategy means for Europe
Donald Trump has rolled out America’s stark new National Defense Strategy. Europeans need to be prepared to take control of their own defence future
Keep ice cool: How Europeans should respond to Trump’s Greenland tariff threats
Rather than panicking or posturing, European leaders should prioritise EU unity, pinpoint their leverage and consider buying time
Seven things to know about the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine
Ukraine receives a vital lifeline, but it is not coming from immobilised Russian reserves
Developing development: Six ways to rethink European foreign aid
Global commitment to development assistance is far from where it was a decade ago. Off the back of the International Conference on Financing for Development, European policymakers should look towards adapting their approach to this new reality
Europe after the end of the liberal international order
As Europeans rearm to confront Russian aggression, they also need to figure out how to survive in the age of “unpeace” that Donald Trump and other strongmen are ushering in. The old interdependencies that liberals took for granted no longer ensure peace, prosperity or stability
Taiwan’s balancing act: Keeping the US in, China out, and domestic technology superior
Amid the global political turmoil, Taipei is aiming to keep Washington onside. But the arrival of the second Trump administration presents a parallel opportunity for Europe and Taiwan to deepen their cooperation in areas of mutual interest
The Merz doctrine: What a CDU-led government would mean for German foreign policy
Germany’s likely next chancellor shares his party’s pro-EU and Atlanticist instincts, but also the country’s wider reluctance to play an exceptional international role
Building BRICS: What Erdogan’s geopolitical gamble could mean for the West
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced Turkey’s intention to apply for BRICS membership. If successful, it would be the bloc’s only NATO member – but the mere prospect of joining could open the door to Turkey’s re-engagement with the West
Future imperfect: The lessons the EU should draw from the UN Summit of the Future
This weekend’s UN Summit of the Future shows that while countries are at odds, most are still looking for ways to work together. Even if the summit won’t achieve dramatic progress, it should spur Europe to forge new partnerships with the global south
War, peace, and populism: How Germany’s extremist parties are shaping its foreign policy debate
Germany’s populist parties have enjoyed electoral success with their “anti-establishment” foreign policy. The governing centrist coalition must act fast to address their dangerous anti-Western stance before it becomes mainstream
Podcasts
What comes next: European discord or European leadership?
The final episode of Searching for Deutschland—a special crossover with the World in 30 Minutes—sees experts from Berlin, London, Paris and Warsaw break down the…
German leadership: Gone for good or just resting?
Welcome to the inaugural episode of Searching for Deutschland, a new podcast by ECFR exploring the European and foreign policy dimensions of the German election…
Election countdown: New Germany, new Europe, new podcast
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin to discuss ECFR’s new podcast mini-series, Searching for Deutschland
The world after the West: Sasha Gabuev and Mikhail Komin on Russia’s role in international organisations
Mark Leonard welcome Sasha Gabuev and Mikhail Komin to discuss how Russia’s involvement in international organisations is impacting its strategic regional interests
The world after the West: Lynn Kuok on south-east Asia
South-east Asia is a culturally and geographically diverse region, notable for its proximity and economic ties to China. Though the political structure of the region’s…
The world after the West: Alex Velez-Green on the United States
In American foreign policy debates, prioritisers argue that the US should focus on deterring Chinese expansion, consequently shifting its resources away from Europe and towards…
The world after the West: Rana Mitter on China
In recent years, China has overtaken the United States as the largest trading partner of the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Not only has…
The world after the West: Matias Spektor on Brazil
Brazil is a middle-power powerhouse. The largest and most populous country in Latin America, this founding member of BRICS+ wields strong cultural, economic, and diplomatic…
The world after the West: Pramit Pal Chaudhuri on India
Mark Leonard welcomes to Pramit Pal Chaudhuri to discuss India as a middle power
The World after the West: Nasser Hadian on Iran
Mark Leonard welcomes Nasser Hadian to delve into Iran’s geopolitical positioning
Events
European Power
Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump raising…
Africa
Navigating multipolarity: Angola’s middle power ambitions
In 2025, Angola has gained increased visibility on the global stage through its presidency of the African Union and hosting the US-Africa Business Summit as well as the 7th AU–EU Summit in Luanda last month. Despite internal challenges, such as inequality and weak institutional capacity, the country has managed to position itself as an aspiring middle power with…
2
Dec
European Power
A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics – an unpredictable, fast-changing and often baffling mix of U.S. trade, investment and finance policies that have a direct impact on Europe’s interests. In her latest ECFR policy brief, Agathe Demarais…
Asia
India after Trump: America’s Turn, China’s Challenge, and Europe’s Opportunity
Donald Trump’s renewed attacks on India have prompted New Delhi to reassess its diplomatic strategy, leading to greater hedging and an emphasis on “multi-alignment.” While tensions with Washington may push India toward limited fence-mending with Beijing, the underlying competitive dynamics of China-India relations remain unchanged. At the same time, Russia’s strategic value is in decline,…
European Power
People are the power: Solving Europe’s demographic dilemma
Europe’s shrinking and ageing population is not just a domestic issue – it is a strategic challenge with global implications. As population dynamics reshape the international balance of power, Europe risks losing geoeconomic leverage and political influence. This public event marks the launch of a new ECFR policy brief “Markets, Migrants, Microchips:…
6
May
European Power
Europa auf sich gestellt? Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspolitik in Umbruchszeiten
Die europäische Sicherheitspolitik befindet sich in einem fundamentalen Wandel. Die transatlantische Partnerschaft, einst Eckpfeiler europäischer Sicherheit, gerät durch eine veränderte US-amerikanische Außenpolitik zunehmend unter Druck. Gleichzeitig stellen Russland und China zunehmend eine Bedrohung für Europas Sicherheit und Wirtschaftsmodell dar. Diese Entwicklungen zwingen Europa zur dringenden Auseinandersetzung mit seiner eigenen Rolle und der Fähigkeit zur Verteidigung…
21
May
European Power
China im Fokus – Partner, Rivale, Bedrohung?
Die Beziehungen zur Volksrepublik China prägen maßgeblich die Außenpolitik der EU. Trotz strategischer Kooperationsansätze und Chinas Rolle als wichtigster Handelspartner der EU bestehen erhebliche Ungleichgewichte und politische Spannungen. Während die EU Chinas größter Absatzmarkt ist, führt das Handelsverhältnis zu einem deutlichen Defizit auf europäischer Seite. Zudem belasten Differenzen in Fragen von Demokratie, Rechtsstaatlichkeit und Menschenrechten…
4
Jun
European Power
Das Imperium schlägt zurück? Russlands Großmachtansprüche und mitteleuropäische Bedrohungswahrnehmungen
Der Zerfall der Sowjetunion im Jahr 1991 nährte die Hoffnung auf eine friedlichere europäische Ordnung. Doch diese Hoffnung erwies sich als trügerisch. Unter Wladimir Putin erlebt Russlands Großmachtanspruch eine gefährliche Renaissance, genährt von dem Wunsch, eine Einflusssphäre in Russlands Nachbarschaft wiederherzustellen. Die vom Kreml propagierte Idee einer “russischen Welt”, die russischsprachige Bevölkerungen im Ausland sowie…
11
Jun
European Power
Die USA am Scheideweg: Zwischen globaler Führung und nationaler Abschottung
Die transatlantischen Beziehungen, lange Zeit ein stabiles Fundament gemeinsamer Werte und Sicherheit, sind ins Wanken geraten. Spätestens seit der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz zeigt sich: Das Bild von Freundschaft und Schulterschluss zwischen den USA und Europa bröckelt. Die Rhetorik aus Washington, die Europa teils als ideologischen Gegner betrachtet, und protektionistische Maßnahmen wie Sonderzölle belasten das Verhältnis spürbar
European Power
European views on a second Trump presidency: Time for pragmatism
The re-election of President Trump sent shockwaves across Europe and around the world. From a global perspective, Europeans are seemingly alone in their pessimism about a second Trump mandate compared to people in other countries around the world. But what does the picture look like if we zoom-in on Europe? This…
In the media
Agathe Demarais on Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on the EU and the EU’s lack of reaction due to its pragmatic and bureaucratic nature
Agathe Demarais on the necessity for the EU to react to Trump by threatening to restrict market access for US social media platforms
Agathe Demarais on the limited impact of the US tariff threat on the EU, given that it only increases US domestic taxes
Agathe Demarais on the possibility of Latin American economies growing closer to China if the EU-Mercosur FTA was not signed