The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order
Ukraine
European Power
Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump raising…
What Europe should do about a bad Ukraine deal
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. Here is how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare
28
Nov
Europe’s Last Chance? What we should do about Trump, China, Ukraine and other challenges of a transactional world
Europe today finds itself facing unprecedented global challenges and surrounded by transactional powers. Donald Trump is poised to redefine the global role of the US – revisiting alliances, challenging NATO, and treating security and trade alike as bargaining chips. China is pressing its advantage in technology, infrastructure, and diplomacy, asking Europeans to choose between principles and…
Ukraine, Russia and Trump’s sanctions gamble
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Jana Kobzova and Jim O’Brien to discuss the latest twists in diplomacy between Ukraine, Russia and the West
Home and away: Why Poland is fighting a war on two fronts
Poland should be at the forefront in deterring Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Instead, its government is hindered by political infighting and an unclear position towards Ukrainians in Poland. Tusk and Nawrocki need to put aside their differences and let Poland lead on European security policy
The European pillar of security
Leo Litra and Lesia Ogryzko are joined by Élie Tenenbaum and Oleksandr Sushko to discuss June’s NATO summit—and what Europe’s security step up means for Ukraine
9
Jul
European Security
Round-Table – Breaking the Chain: Countering Shadow Fleet Operations in Europe’s Strategic Waterways
The event contributes to the wider Ukraine Recovery Conference by examining a critical dimension of Russia’s war against Ukraine: the economic infrastructure underlying the conflict and the maritime security challenges it creates for Europe. It aims to create space for discussion among key experts and stakeholders on policy options to address Russian economic circumvention mechanisms…
Ukrainian society in wartime
Leo Litra and Lesia Ogryzko welcome Fredrik Wesslau and Volodymyr Yermolenko to unpack how, over three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian society continues to persist in the face of aggression
European Power
Defence without America? What Europeans are (and aren’t) ready for
Days before a high-stakes NATO summit, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) hosts to a timely webinar on European public attitudes towards Europe’s defence, the first turbulent months of President Trump’s new term, and the capacity of Europe to respond to a changing transatlantic reality. This webinar will launch our brand-new public opinion report,…
Making them pay: How Ukraine’s special operations could bring Putin to negotiate
In the past week Ukraine has launched three surprise attacks on Russian military assets inside the country and in occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s allies in Europe should seize the momentum to compel Putin to come to the negotiating table
Publications
Farce then tragedy: Russian views of the West and what they mean for Ukraine
How the Kremlin’s view of a declining US and a mercurial Europe shapes the prospects for a Trump-Putin deal
Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine
The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive, but prevail
Reformation nation: Wartime politics in Ukraine
No clear postwar situation is likely to emerge in Ukraine. The country’s EU partners will have to help it reform during wartime
Star tech enterprise: Emerging technologies in Russia’s war on Ukraine
Russia’s war on Ukraine has featured many of the technological advances the world has made over the past decades. If Europeans are serious about their defence capabilities, they need to learn from this use of emerging technology on both sides of the war
China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
New polling for ECFR reveals the West is consolidating – while facing an increasingly post-Western world, in which powers such as India and Turkiye are readier than ever to act independently
Defend. Resist. Repeat: Ukraine’s lessons for European defence
Ukraine has mounted an innovative response to Russian aggression in 2022. The rest of Europe can learn from this – but should continue to provide weapons and training in return
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support
The next war: How Russian hybrid aggression could threaten Moldova
Russia could target Moldova by embarking on a limited-scope but overt military invasion – or by pursuing more covert hybrid aggression scenarios. Moldova and the EU need to embrace “active resilience” to address this
Partnership for Enlargement: A new way to integrate Ukraine and the EU’s eastern neighbourhood
Russia’s war on Ukraine means the EU must devise a new approach to its neighbourhood. It should establish a Partnership for Enlargement that offers Ukraine and other states concrete steps towards deeper integration
Articles
What Europe should do about a bad Ukraine deal
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. Here is how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare
Home and away: Why Poland is fighting a war on two fronts
Poland should be at the forefront in deterring Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Instead, its government is hindered by political infighting and an unclear position towards Ukrainians in Poland. Tusk and Nawrocki need to put aside their differences and let Poland lead on European security policy
Making them pay: How Ukraine’s special operations could bring Putin to negotiate
In the past week Ukraine has launched three surprise attacks on Russian military assets inside the country and in occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s allies in Europe should seize the momentum to compel Putin to come to the negotiating table
Spoil or shape: How Europeans can impact US-Russia talks on Ukraine
European policymakers have little direct influence over Moscow and Washington. However, they can use certain tools as leverage to help shape talks about Ukraine’s future—while ensuring to act in the EU’s best interest
Putin in Kursk: The meaning of political theatre
Putin’s visit to Kursk revealed an effort to buy time and keep focused on his ultimate war goals
Asserting agency: How Europeans can ensure Ukraine’s security
As Washington’s plan for Ukraine appears further and further from European interests, Europeans need to put an alternative offer on the table. It should rest on four pillars
What if Russia wins in Ukraine? We can already see the shadows of a dark 2025
Instability is growing, Putin’s hybrid war in Europe is heating up, and for fear of escalation we have encouraged global nuclear proliferation
Staying power: Securing peace in Ukraine while balancing European interests
European governments’ hesitation to pursue strategic security goals in Ukraine risks leaving them absent from peace negotiations, undermining both Kyiv’s position and Europe’s role in shaping a stable European security order
Between the lines: Monitoring Putin’s response to Ukraine’s long-range missiles
Ukraine has carried out its first strikes inside Russian territory with Western-made, long-range missiles; Vladimir Putin responded by launching a new type of weapon. NATO allies must now send a clear deterrence message without following Russia’s escalatory rhetoric
Der Untergang: As Trump returns, Putin will reap the rewards of Europe’s inaction on Ukraine
Reducing military assistance to Ukraine will put the country in such a precarious and unpredictable situation that Moscow will have even fewer incentives to come to the table
Podcasts
Ukraine, Russia and Trump’s sanctions gamble
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Jana Kobzova and Jim O’Brien to discuss the latest twists in diplomacy between Ukraine, Russia and the West
The European pillar of security
Leo Litra and Lesia Ogryzko are joined by Élie Tenenbaum and Oleksandr Sushko to discuss June’s NATO summit—and what Europe’s security step up means for Ukraine
Ukrainian society in wartime
Leo Litra and Lesia Ogryzko welcome Fredrik Wesslau and Volodymyr Yermolenko to unpack how, over three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian society continues to persist in the face of aggression
Ceasefire in Ukraine?
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova to discuss whether a flurry of last-minute diplomacy can prevent a Ukraine settlement on Russia’s terms
ECFR’s Emergency Room: What America’s aid pause means for Ukraine and Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Nicu Popescu, an ECFR distinguished policy fellow leading our work on the European security initiative, to discuss America’s decision to pause aid shipments to Ukraine—and how European countries are trying to turn this around
Ukraine and the US-Russia talks: Deterrence or disarray?
In Searching for Deutschland’s last pre-election episode, hosts Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin review the Munich Security Conference, the US-Russia talks on Ukraine, and what the new era…
Forging peace: Europe’s role in Ukraine’s future
Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, Jana Kobzova, and Nicu Popescu to discuss European security guarantees for Ukraine and the path to sustainable peace
Unity or disunity for Ukraine: that is the question
In the first big multilateral test for prime minister Giorgia Meloni, this mini-series will explore the four main priorities of Italy’s 2024 G7 presidency: Ukraine, AI, infrastructure, and Africa
Ukraine’s future in NATO
Mark Leonard welcomes Ivan Krastev to discuss how NATO membership can help Ukraine negotiate a durable peace
Understanding the current military situation in Ukraine
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Michael Kofman and Gustav Gressel to discuss the military situation in Ukraine
Events
European Power
Europe Debates | Russia won’t attack NATO
Russia’s hybrid warfare targeting NATO states has intensified since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on digital and energy infrastructure as well as drone incursions into NATO airspace occur almost daily now and put the alliance on alert about the potential of Russian aggression in the not-too-distant future. Between US president Trump raising…
28
Nov
Europe’s Last Chance? What we should do about Trump, China, Ukraine and other challenges of a transactional world
Europe today finds itself facing unprecedented global challenges and surrounded by transactional powers. Donald Trump is poised to redefine the global role of the US – revisiting alliances, challenging NATO, and treating security and trade alike as bargaining chips. China is pressing its advantage in technology, infrastructure, and diplomacy, asking Europeans to choose between principles and…
9
Jul
European Security
Round-Table – Breaking the Chain: Countering Shadow Fleet Operations in Europe’s Strategic Waterways
The event contributes to the wider Ukraine Recovery Conference by examining a critical dimension of Russia’s war against Ukraine: the economic infrastructure underlying the conflict and the maritime security challenges it creates for Europe. It aims to create space for discussion among key experts and stakeholders on policy options to address Russian economic circumvention mechanisms…
European Power
Defence without America? What Europeans are (and aren’t) ready for
Days before a high-stakes NATO summit, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) hosts to a timely webinar on European public attitudes towards Europe’s defence, the first turbulent months of President Trump’s new term, and the capacity of Europe to respond to a changing transatlantic reality. This webinar will launch our brand-new public opinion report,…
18
Mar
United States
Riders on the storm: Trump, Europe and the future of Ukraine
La Conferenza sulla Sicurezza di Monaco e i dialoghi in Arabia Saudita tra americani e russi hanno messo in luce il tentativo di creare un nuovo ordine mondiale, che potrebbe tuttavia minacciare l’assetto liberale e, soprattutto, indebolire l’Europa. La nuova amministrazione Trump, principale artefice di questi cambiamenti, rischia di mettere gli europei gli uni contro…
European Security
US military aid on pause: what’s next for Ukraine?
With the contentious Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, and the US announcing it would pause military aid to Ukraine, Kyiv faces mounting pressure. Neither Ukraine nor its European partners want the fighting to continue indefinitely – they want the ability to shape the terms of an eventual settlement. To do so, Ukraine needs…
Wider Europe
Don’t wait for Washington: What the EU can do for Ukraine and its own security
After taking office, Donald Trump did not stop the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Yet, there are high expectations that his administration will at least attempt a ceasefire in the coming months. Both Ukraine and the EU countries have been waiting to see the US strategy for the settlement and calibrate their next steps…
28
Nov
European Power
Countering disinformation as a global challenge
This international conference discusses the main aspects of disinformation as a global challenge. It has been organised by the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in Rome in cooperation with the Embassy of Estonia in Rome; the Embassy of Republic of Latvia in Rome; the Embassy of Republic of Lithuania in Rome; the Embassy of…
Wider Europe
Ukraine has a plan. Does the EU have one?
Nearly three years into the full-scale war, Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience and adaptability to counter Moscow’s relentless attacks. Now, President Zelensky has unveiled Ukraine’s victory plan, outlining a vision to end the war. While Ukraine has charted its course, what kind of vision does the EU have? What should the strategy of Ukraine’s European…
17
Oct
Africa
Das ÜberLeben der Anderen: Warum Deutschlands Sicherheit global gedacht werden muss
Konflikte in Gaza, im Sudan und in der Ukraine, irreguläre Migration, Klimakrise und Extremismus: Die Welt wird von immer mehr gleichzeitig aufretenden Krisen erschüttert, die sich gegenseitig bedingen und verschärfen. Die Welt ordnet sich neu und geopolitische Einflusszonen reiben sich aneinander. Damit ist die Sicherheit Deutschlands enger denn je mit der Sicherheit und Stabilität anderer…
In the media
Gabriele Carrer reports on a former US sanctions official who argues that the decisive leverage over Russia lies in targeting its energy revenues and tightening controls on strategic supply chains—factors he sees as critical to shaping Ukraine’s fate
