How can Keir Starmer keep Britain safe? As the US withdraws, he must renew the UK’s role in Europe
When the UK’s prime minister hosts other European leaders this week, their old protector will be absent. A shared approach to security is now vital
Mark Leonard
Europe’s coming paralysis
Given the state of the world today, it is difficult to imagine a worse time for Europe to be left rudderless. But with little room to manoeuvre after the European Parliament election, French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Olaf Scholz are in no position to steer the EU through major challenges
What the Weimar Triangle could do for Europe
While the traditional Franco-German axis has fallen short of providing the kind of unifying leadership that the EU so desperately needs, the addition of Poland could change everything. And should Donald Trump win the US presidential election, this triumvirate would become Europe’s best hope for salvation
The Macron moment
Underlying all the problems that Europe faces in a new age of geopolitical, economic, and climate insecurity is a crisis in leadership. Judging by his recent speech at the Sorbonne, French president Emmanuel Macron could be the politician to supply it, but only if he abandons his standard political playbook
Europe must prepare for a Trump presidency
European countries have been slow to recognise the potential implications of Donald Trump returning to the White House in 2025. Over the next six months, they must figure out how to secure essential ammunition, bolster their defence funding, and sustain support for Ukraine in the absence of US aid
The Trump effect takes Europe
If disaster can be averted in this year’s US presidential election, a second-term Biden administration will be able to count on a much better partner in Europe, owing to the mobilising effect of Donald Trump’s candidacy. European leaders are finally realising that they urgently need to get their act together
Sunset of the economists
Two decades ago, China’s reformist economists walked the halls of power and dictated policy. Now, they have been sidelined in favour of a new priority: national security. What happened?
Has the ‘polycrisis’ overwhelmed us?
Today’s global crises are not only competing for policymakers’ finite attention, they are increasingly feeding one another in unpredictable ways. Add the uncertainty around this year’s high-stakes elections in the US and elsewhere, and you have a recipe for a Davos meeting defined by angst and paralysis
2024: The year we embrace predictable surprise
Ten predictions for the foreign policy trends of 2024, and a little bonus
Europe needs a new Ukraine strategy
The European Union’s decision to start accession talks with Ukraine represents a symbolic victory rather than a practical one. With Ukraine struggling to secure crucial aid, and its counter-offensive failing to achieve its objectives, it is time to redefine what constitutes a Ukrainian victory and a Russian defeat
Publications
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
The idea of China
China’s ideas could become the country’s next big export. The Idea of China examines Chinese thinking about global order, AI, demographic change, and more – and considers how these ideas could influence the world
A new political map: Getting the European Parliament election right
Mainstream parties are hoping to prevent an anticipated far-right surge in this year’s European Parliament election. But the results of ECFR’s latest opinion poll suggest their current strategy could backfire – and what they should do instead
Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, European leaders need to prevent Vladimir Putin from capitalising on war fatigue in the West. To maintain public support for backing Kyiv in this crucial election year, they should make clear that a Russian victory is not peace
A crisis of one’s own: The politics of trauma in Europe’s election year
European politics is divided between ‘crisis tribes,’ formed from different traumas. Climate and migration are set to be especially influential in this year’s European Parliament election
Living in an à la carte world: What European policymakers should learn from global public opinion
A new global opinion poll for ECFR reveals that many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate into full political alignment. People instead prefer an a la carte arrangement, in which their governments pragmatically select their partners depending on the matter at hand
Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of middle powers
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
Fragile unity: Why Europeans are coming together on Ukraine (and what might drive them apart)
Recent polling for ECFR suggests that Europeans have come closer together in their support for Ukraine. But the factors driving this unity are fragile, contingent, and may not last
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
New polling for ECFR reveals the West is consolidating – while facing an increasingly post-Western world, in which powers such as India and Turkiye are readier than ever to act independently
Articles
How can Keir Starmer keep Britain safe? As the US withdraws, he must renew the UK’s role in Europe
When the UK’s prime minister hosts other European leaders this week, their old protector will be absent. A shared approach to security is now vital
Europe’s coming paralysis
Given the state of the world today, it is difficult to imagine a worse time for Europe to be left rudderless. But with little room to manoeuvre after the European Parliament election, French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Olaf Scholz are in no position to steer the EU through major challenges
What the Weimar Triangle could do for Europe
While the traditional Franco-German axis has fallen short of providing the kind of unifying leadership that the EU so desperately needs, the addition of Poland could change everything. And should Donald Trump win the US presidential election, this triumvirate would become Europe’s best hope for salvation
The Macron moment
Underlying all the problems that Europe faces in a new age of geopolitical, economic, and climate insecurity is a crisis in leadership. Judging by his recent speech at the Sorbonne, French president Emmanuel Macron could be the politician to supply it, but only if he abandons his standard political playbook
Europe must prepare for a Trump presidency
European countries have been slow to recognise the potential implications of Donald Trump returning to the White House in 2025. Over the next six months, they must figure out how to secure essential ammunition, bolster their defence funding, and sustain support for Ukraine in the absence of US aid
The Trump effect takes Europe
If disaster can be averted in this year’s US presidential election, a second-term Biden administration will be able to count on a much better partner in Europe, owing to the mobilising effect of Donald Trump’s candidacy. European leaders are finally realising that they urgently need to get their act together
Sunset of the economists
Two decades ago, China’s reformist economists walked the halls of power and dictated policy. Now, they have been sidelined in favour of a new priority: national security. What happened?
Has the ‘polycrisis’ overwhelmed us?
Today’s global crises are not only competing for policymakers’ finite attention, they are increasingly feeding one another in unpredictable ways. Add the uncertainty around this year’s high-stakes elections in the US and elsewhere, and you have a recipe for a Davos meeting defined by angst and paralysis
2024: The year we embrace predictable surprise
Ten predictions for the foreign policy trends of 2024, and a little bonus
Europe needs a new Ukraine strategy
The European Union’s decision to start accession talks with Ukraine represents a symbolic victory rather than a practical one. With Ukraine struggling to secure crucial aid, and its counter-offensive failing to achieve its objectives, it is time to redefine what constitutes a Ukrainian victory and a Russian defeat
Specials
The Power Atlas
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world
What Europeans really want: Five myths debunked
New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs
Podcasts
The world after the West: Pramit Pal Chaudhuri on India
Mark Leonard welcomes to Pramit Pal Chaudhuri to discuss India as a middle power
The far-right falters: Outcomes of the French snap election
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin to discuss the results of the French election
Victory and visions: Labour’s approach to the EU
Mark Leonard welcomes Laurence Boone, Julian King and Ivan Rogers to discuss the results of the UK elections
The World after the West: Nasser Hadian on Iran
Mark Leonard welcomes Nasser Hadian to delve into Iran’s geopolitical positioning
The World After the West: Ayşe Zarakol on Turkey
Mark Leonard welcomes Ayşe Zarakol to talk about global order and Turkey
NATO and beyond: America’s domestic politics and Ukraine
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to discuss America’s next policy moves as it responds to Russia’s war in Ukraine
The Great Firewall: How China regulates big tech
Mark Leonard welcomes Angela Zhang to discuss China’s Big Tech regulation
In:Sight China with Angela Zhang
Mark Leonard welcomes Angela Zhang to discuss China’s big tech regulation
Algorithmic agendas: The globalisation of political technology
Mark Leonard welcomes Andrew Wilson to discuss political technology and the globalisation of political manipulation
The sweet spot: Between de-risking from China and Europe’s green future
Mark Leonard welcomes Robbie Diamond and Janka Oertel to discuss de-risking and the future of Europe’s green industries
Events
26 Mar
Transatlantic Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in…
8 Jul
New paperback released – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict
Mark Leonard will launch his newly released paperback edition of his book – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict (Penguin) with a brand-new essay on the war in Ukraine and its implications for geopolitics
29 Mar
The birth of geopolitical Europe: In conversation with Josep Borrell
With the EU’s High Representative as our honoured guest, the panel will explore the birth of a geopolitical Europe and the new dimensions of European power with a focus on the tech, economic, and security terrains
10 Mar
The EU and Japan: Strategic partners in the Indo-Pacific
In collaboration with the Embassy of Japan in Madrid, ECFR has organised a public virtual debate to explore how the EU and the Indo-Pacific can build a strategic alliance and how the EU-Japan relationship can drive this process
5 May
Transatlantic relations after President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office
How central is the EU to the US and its interests in Europe? And how does the public in European countries view Biden’s America?
15 Mar
European Power in a Biden Era: what role for France and Germany?
ECFR’s latest polling finds that Europeans celebrated Joe Biden’s victory but are sceptical that we will see a global resurgence of US power and…
3 Feb
The Geopolitics of the Green Deal
How to manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal and lead climate change efforts globally
21 Jan
THINKING BIG WITH Anne-Marie Slaughter
From climate, digital or security – what structures for global cooperation will emerge in a post-Merkel era and Biden presidency?
19 Jan
The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
The event will launch an exciting new report by Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, based on public opinion polling in 11 countries
21 Dec
Sovereign Europe, hostile world: In conversation with Josep Borrell, HRVP
The EU’s High Representative, Josep Borrell, and Mark Leonard discussed why strategic autonomy matters
In the media
Ukraine Unlock polling quoted in Al Jazeera
The end result is a parliament not so different from its predecessor, with the three dominant pro-European groups still holding a comfortable majority
Mark Leonard analyses the results of the European elections
Mark Leonard on the new British government and their positions on the EU
Berlingske reports on the findings of the Unlock polling Ukraine paper
Politiken reports on the new Ukraine public opinion Unlock paper