European countries have been slow to recognise the potential implications of Donald Trump returning to the White House in 2025. Over the next six months, they must figure out how to secure essential ammunition, bolster their defence funding, and sustain support for Ukraine in the absence of US aid
If disaster can be averted in this year’s US presidential election, a second-term Biden administration will be able to count on a much better partner in Europe, owing to the mobilising effect of Donald Trump’s candidacy. European leaders are finally realising that they urgently need to get their act together
Two decades ago, China’s reformist economists walked the halls of power and dictated policy. Now, they have been sidelined in favour of a new priority: national security. What happened?
Today’s global crises are not only competing for policymakers’ finite attention, they are increasingly feeding one another in unpredictable ways. Add the uncertainty around this year’s high-stakes elections in the US and elsewhere, and you have a recipe for a Davos meeting defined by angst and paralysis
Ten predictions for the foreign policy trends of 2024, and a little bonus
The European Union’s decision to start accession talks with Ukraine represents a symbolic victory rather than a practical one. With Ukraine struggling to secure crucial aid, and its counter-offensive failing to achieve its objectives, it is time to redefine what constitutes a Ukrainian victory and a Russian defeat
US President Joe Biden’s largely successful response to Russia’s war against Ukraine reflects his vision of the world as a bloc of democracies facing off against revisionist autocracies. But there is growing evidence that this is a minority view, even among some of America’s closest allies
The impact of the Israel-Hamas war will reverberate around the world, with consequences for the Middle East, Europe, China, and the United States. While the specific challenges vary, none has an interest in drawing out or widening the conflict
The debate surrounding the EU’s potential expansion is no longer really about Ukraine and the Western Balkans. Enlargement is now an existential question with far-reaching implications for the EU and its ability to remain a prominent player in a rapidly changing global environment
Contrary to how it may appear to many, not least in the US, the new cold war seems to be based not on the old logic of polarisation, but on a new logic of fragmentation. Judging by the growth of the BRICS group of major emerging economies, there is no shortage of countries that find that new logic enticing
Mainstream parties are hoping to prevent an anticipated far-right surge in this year’s European Parliament election. But the results of ECFR’s latest opinion poll suggest their current strategy could backfire – and what they should do instead
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, European leaders need to prevent Vladimir Putin from capitalising on war fatigue in the West. To maintain public support for backing Kyiv in this crucial election year, they should make clear that a Russian victory is not peace
European politics is divided between ‘crisis tribes,’ formed from different traumas. Climate and migration are set to be especially influential in this year’s European Parliament election
A new global opinion poll for ECFR reveals that many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate into full political alignment. People instead prefer an a la carte arrangement, in which their governments pragmatically select their partners depending on the matter at hand
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
Recent polling for ECFR suggests that Europeans have come closer together in their support for Ukraine. But the factors driving this unity are fragile, contingent, and may not last
New polling for ECFR reveals the West is consolidating – while facing an increasingly post-Western world, in which powers such as India and Turkiye are readier than ever to act independently
New ECFR research reveals that Europeans are split about the long-term goals of the war in Ukraine. Unless political leaders find a new language to bridge the gap between emerging “Peace” and “Justice” camps, Europe could become polarised between – and within – countries.
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order.
European countries have been slow to recognise the potential implications of Donald Trump returning to the White House in 2025. Over the next six months, they must figure out how to secure essential ammunition, bolster their defence funding, and sustain support for Ukraine in the absence of US aid
If disaster can be averted in this year’s US presidential election, a second-term Biden administration will be able to count on a much better partner in Europe, owing to the mobilising effect of Donald Trump’s candidacy. European leaders are finally realising that they urgently need to get their act together
Two decades ago, China’s reformist economists walked the halls of power and dictated policy. Now, they have been sidelined in favour of a new priority: national security. What happened?
Today’s global crises are not only competing for policymakers’ finite attention, they are increasingly feeding one another in unpredictable ways. Add the uncertainty around this year’s high-stakes elections in the US and elsewhere, and you have a recipe for a Davos meeting defined by angst and paralysis
Ten predictions for the foreign policy trends of 2024, and a little bonus
The European Union’s decision to start accession talks with Ukraine represents a symbolic victory rather than a practical one. With Ukraine struggling to secure crucial aid, and its counter-offensive failing to achieve its objectives, it is time to redefine what constitutes a Ukrainian victory and a Russian defeat
US President Joe Biden’s largely successful response to Russia’s war against Ukraine reflects his vision of the world as a bloc of democracies facing off against revisionist autocracies. But there is growing evidence that this is a minority view, even among some of America’s closest allies
The impact of the Israel-Hamas war will reverberate around the world, with consequences for the Middle East, Europe, China, and the United States. While the specific challenges vary, none has an interest in drawing out or widening the conflict
The debate surrounding the EU’s potential expansion is no longer really about Ukraine and the Western Balkans. Enlargement is now an existential question with far-reaching implications for the EU and its ability to remain a prominent player in a rapidly changing global environment
Contrary to how it may appear to many, not least in the US, the new cold war seems to be based not on the old logic of polarisation, but on a new logic of fragmentation. Judging by the growth of the BRICS group of major emerging economies, there is no shortage of countries that find that new logic enticing
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world.
New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs.
Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt and Muhammad Shehada to discuss the war in Gaza and the prospects for Palestinian statehood
On Saturday evening, Iran launched a major attack on Israeli territory, with a combination of 300 drones and missiles. Israel’s air defense seems to have…
Mark Leonard welcomes Cinzia Bianco, Agathe Demarais, and Camille Lons to discuss the geoeconomics of the Gulf
Mark Leonard welcomes Alexander Ward and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss Biden’s foreign policy performance
Mark Leonard welcomes Anthony Dworkin to discuss the role of international law and justice in an increasingly fragmented world
Mark Leonard welcomes Ulrike Franke and Jana Puglierin to discuss the recent turmoil surrounding Germany’s defence policy
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Stephen Adams to discuss de-risking and its impact on Europe and the global economy
Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the current situation in Gaza and the possible futures of the war
Mark Leonard welcomes Ivan Krastev to discuss how NATO membership can help Ukraine negotiate a durable peace
Mark Leonard welcomes Gustav Gressel and Jeremy Shapiro to understand what factors will shape a third year of war in Ukraine
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in…
Mark Leonard will launch his newly released paperback edition of his book – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict (Penguin) with a brand-new essay on the war in Ukraine and its implications for geopolitics
With the EU’s High Representative as our honoured guest, the panel will explore the birth of a geopolitical Europe and the new dimensions of European power with a focus on the tech, economic, and security terrains
In collaboration with the Embassy of Japan in Madrid, ECFR has organised a public virtual debate to explore how the EU and the Indo-Pacific can build a strategic alliance and how the EU-Japan relationship can drive this process
How central is the EU to the US and its interests in Europe? And how does the public in European countries view Biden’s America?
ECFR’s latest polling finds that Europeans celebrated Joe Biden’s victory but are sceptical that we will see a global resurgence of US power and…
How to manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal and lead climate change efforts globally
From climate, digital or security – what structures for global cooperation will emerge in a post-Merkel era and Biden presidency?
The event will launch an exciting new report by Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, based on public opinion polling in 11 countries
The EU’s High Representative, Josep Borrell, and Mark Leonard discussed why strategic autonomy matters
Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard on European public opinion ahead of the European Parliament elections
Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard on European public opinion ahead of the European Parliament elections
a significant shift to the right in many countries in the June vote, with populist radical right parties gaining votes and seats across the EU, and centre-left and green parties losing votes and seats
Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard on European public opinion ahead of the European Parliament elections
Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard on European public opinion ahead of the European Parliament elections
Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard on Europeans’ belief on the war in Ukraine