As Europeans rearm to confront Russian aggression, they also need to figure out how to survive in the age of “unpeace” that Donald Trump and other strongmen are ushering in. The old interdependencies that liberals took for granted no longer ensure peace, prosperity or stability
Incoming German chancellor Friedrich Merz is an unlikely candidate to lead a decisive break with the US. But an erstwhile über-Atlanticist and fiscal conservative might be the only German politician who can credibly bury the country’s economically disastrous “debt brake” and pave the way for a truly independent Europe
Trump’s obsession with buying Greenland has turned the island into a geopolitical flashpoint, leaving Europeans uneasy and Denmark navigating choppy waters over the island’s political future
Donald Trump’s return marks the start of an anti-Davos age, defined by the lack not only of a global order but also of any desire to create one. The world should expect deeper fragmentation and chaos in the face of unresolved crises and frequent disruptions
Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead
Faced with the threat that Donald Trump poses to Europe’s economic and military security, European leaders must avoid both panic and complacency. The best way to do that is to use the time between now and 20 January 2025, to agree on their common interests and work out how to defend them
Kamala Harris’s ascent to the top of the Democratic ticket has eliminated Donald Trump’s polling lead and allowed Europeans to contemplate alternatives to what would be their worst-case scenario. Yet, even if Harris wins, it would be foolish to expect complete continuity with the Biden administration
While Democrats frame the US presidential election as an existential battle between democracy and authoritarianism, Republicans are trying to position Donald Trump as a champion of the working class. To win in November, Kamala Harris’s campaign must show voters how wrong this narrative is
When the UK’s prime minister hosts other European leaders this week, their old protector will be absent. A shared approach to security is now vital
Given the state of the world today, it is difficult to imagine a worse time for Europe to be left rudderless. But with little room to manoeuvre after the European Parliament election, French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Olaf Scholz are in no position to steer the EU through major challenges
Citizens of global powers are upbeat about a second Trump presidency – but this is by no means universal, particularly among traditional US allies
Voters in both the UK and major EU states are open to compromise. Leaders on both sides of the Channel should use this political space for an ambitious reset
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
China’s ideas could become the country’s next big export. The Idea of China examines Chinese thinking about global order, AI, demographic change, and more – and considers how these ideas could influence the world
Mainstream parties are hoping to prevent an anticipated far-right surge in this year’s European Parliament election. But the results of ECFR’s latest opinion poll suggest their current strategy could backfire – and what they should do instead
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, European leaders need to prevent Vladimir Putin from capitalising on war fatigue in the West. To maintain public support for backing Kyiv in this crucial election year, they should make clear that a Russian victory is not peace
European politics is divided between ‘crisis tribes,’ formed from different traumas. Climate and migration are set to be especially influential in this year’s European Parliament election
A new global opinion poll for ECFR reveals that many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate into full political alignment. People instead prefer an a la carte arrangement, in which their governments pragmatically select their partners depending on the matter at hand
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
As Europeans rearm to confront Russian aggression, they also need to figure out how to survive in the age of “unpeace” that Donald Trump and other strongmen are ushering in. The old interdependencies that liberals took for granted no longer ensure peace, prosperity or stability
Incoming German chancellor Friedrich Merz is an unlikely candidate to lead a decisive break with the US. But an erstwhile über-Atlanticist and fiscal conservative might be the only German politician who can credibly bury the country’s economically disastrous “debt brake” and pave the way for a truly independent Europe
Trump’s obsession with buying Greenland has turned the island into a geopolitical flashpoint, leaving Europeans uneasy and Denmark navigating choppy waters over the island’s political future
Donald Trump’s return marks the start of an anti-Davos age, defined by the lack not only of a global order but also of any desire to create one. The world should expect deeper fragmentation and chaos in the face of unresolved crises and frequent disruptions
Ten key foreign policy trends for the year ahead
Faced with the threat that Donald Trump poses to Europe’s economic and military security, European leaders must avoid both panic and complacency. The best way to do that is to use the time between now and 20 January 2025, to agree on their common interests and work out how to defend them
Kamala Harris’s ascent to the top of the Democratic ticket has eliminated Donald Trump’s polling lead and allowed Europeans to contemplate alternatives to what would be their worst-case scenario. Yet, even if Harris wins, it would be foolish to expect complete continuity with the Biden administration
While Democrats frame the US presidential election as an existential battle between democracy and authoritarianism, Republicans are trying to position Donald Trump as a champion of the working class. To win in November, Kamala Harris’s campaign must show voters how wrong this narrative is
When the UK’s prime minister hosts other European leaders this week, their old protector will be absent. A shared approach to security is now vital
Given the state of the world today, it is difficult to imagine a worse time for Europe to be left rudderless. But with little room to manoeuvre after the European Parliament election, French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Olaf Scholz are in no position to steer the EU through major challenges
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world
New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs
Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin to discuss how Europe can respond to Donald Trump’s vision of a transformed transatlantic order
Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel to unpack the US-China trade de-escalation and its implications for Europe
In this week’s emergency podcast episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Andrew Small to discuss the recent escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan
Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Cliffe and Jana Puglierin to discuss the inauguration of the new German government, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz
Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought chaos to US foreign and domestic policy. From imperial gestures to institutional erosion, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro to unpack what this means for American democracy—and for Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Puglierin to unpack what Friedrich Merz’s rise to the chancellorship means for German politics—and for Europe
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova to discuss whether a flurry of last-minute diplomacy can prevent a Ukraine settlement on Russia’s terms
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, Mohsen Milani and Nathalie Tocci to unpack the latest developments in US-Iran diplomacy
Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais and Janka Oertel to examine the diverse perspectives on US-China relations and how Europe can navigate this changing geopolitical landscape
Mark Leonard welcomes Mujtaba Rahman to unpack the evolving EU-UK relationship and explore what’s at stake for security, trade, and Europe’s future
Most people in the broader world think President Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace to Ukraine and the…
As the world prepares for a second Trump presidency and its transformative impact on the global order, Europe faces an urgent need to not only…
The result of the US election is sending shock waves across the world and Europeans, including the UK, are trying to figure out how it…
With increased US-China competition likely to shape Trump’s second term, significant attention in Washington is focused on the primacists, prioritisers and restrainers vying to shape…
As discussions intensify on both sides of the Atlantic about the implications of a Trump 2.0 presidency, European leaders are now having to confront a…
In celebration of the opening of the ECFR Washington office, this public panel will look at the state of public opinion on the war in…
Mark Leonard will launch his newly released paperback edition of his book – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict (Penguin) with a brand-new essay on the war in Ukraine and its implications for geopolitics
With the EU’s High Representative as our honoured guest, the panel will explore the birth of a geopolitical Europe and the new dimensions of European power with a focus on the tech, economic, and security terrains
In collaboration with the Embassy of Japan in Madrid, ECFR has organised a public virtual debate to explore how the EU and the Indo-Pacific can build a strategic alliance and how the EU-Japan relationship can drive this process
How central is the EU to the US and its interests in Europe? And how does the public in European countries view Biden’s America?
Trump administration throws all the old certainties into a blender
Mark Leonard on the current Trump administration
The “weaponisation of interdependence” warns of the ease with which global networks of investment and infrastructure could be captured
Mark Leonard warns about the risks of the ‘weaponization of interdependence’ in the global economy
Mimicking hardline immigration policies was a bad strategy for mainstream parties
Mark Leonard warns about the dangers of adopting far-right migration strategies in Europe
My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as soon as possible so that, step by step, we can truly achieve independence from the United States
Mark Leonard analyses Europe’s declaration of independence from the United States following Friedrich Merz’s victory
The historic challenge for Friedrich Merz is to help build a Europe that can stand on its own two feet
Mark Leonard on Merz’s call for stronger European defence capabilities