China Is Ready for a World of Disorder
The very different responses of China and the United States to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed the divergence in Beijing’s and Washington’s thinking. In Washington,…
Mark Leonard
The Post-American Middle East
The recent ceasefire between Israel and Islamic Jihad, the detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the de-escalation in Yemen have all been accomplished with minimal Western involvement. While this may be just a temporary lull in Middle Eastern violence, it may also offer a glimpse into the multipolar future
The Ukraine war and European identity
With the war in Ukraine well into its second year, European politicians from across the political spectrum are still eager to show their support for the country. But a battle for the soul of Europe is brewing beneath the surface, and next year’s European Parliament elections could serve as its first battleground.
Xi Jinping’s idea of world order
The real battle for international supremacy today is not between democracies and autocracies, but between different models of global order, with China and the West each offering its own distinct account of “democracy”. The sooner that Western leaders recognise this, the better chance they will have of attracting new partners
Mob diplomacy
To understand today’s geopolitical ructions, one must look beyond major powers’ governments and top strategists. As the recent Chinese balloon saga showed, public opinion is increasingly in the driver’s seat, and it is steering international relations away from open, honest dialogue
The next globalisation
There is growing support for the idea that the world is experiencing not ‘deglobalisation’ but rather ‘re-globalisation’, owing to accelerating changes in energy and technology. Nonetheless, the differences between the next wave of globalisation and the last one will far outweigh the similarities
2023: The year we learn to stop worrying
Ten predictions for what’s coming in the world of 2023. Plus a Tik-Tok bonus.
Russia-proofing Europe
Although Ukrainians are heading into a hard winter sustained by a sense of optimism and hope for peace in the near future, this is no time for complacency. The West, and especially the European Union, must get serious about positioning itself for a protracted, multi-pronged conflict.
Peak Atlantic unity?
A few short years after being declared brain dead, the transatlantic alliance is thriving, with Americans and Europeans coordinating their response to Russian aggression and sharing similar views on China. But new storm clouds are gathering, and Europeans must prepare for darker days ahead.
Preparing for the Long War
Amid the euphoria following recent Ukrainian battlefield victories, some commentators are cautiously optimistic that Ukraine could win the war by the spring. But Vladimir Putin’s latest moves suggest that Russia is settling in for a long war of attrition that will test European resolve.
Publications
China and Ukraine: The Chinese debate about Russia’s war and its meaning for the world
Chinese thinkers are drawing four key lessons from Russia’s war on Ukraine, informing their views on: America, Russia, Taiwan, and economic interdependence with the West
Fragile unity: Why Europeans are coming together on Ukraine (and what might drive them apart)
Recent polling for ECFR suggests that Europeans have come closer together in their support for Ukraine. But the factors driving this unity are fragile, contingent, and may not last
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
New polling for ECFR reveals the West is consolidating – while facing an increasingly post-Western world, in which powers such as India and Turkiye are readier than ever to act independently
Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war in Ukraine
New ECFR research reveals that Europeans are split about the long-term goals of the war in Ukraine. Unless political leaders find a new language to bridge the gap between emerging “Peace” and “Justice” camps, Europe could become polarised between – and within – countries.
The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order.
What Europeans think about the US-China Cold War
A majority of European citizens believe a new cold war with both China and Russia is under way – but they mostly do not think that their own country is involved
Europe’s invisible divides: How covid-19 is polarising European politics
Europe’s covid-19 experience has been a tale of two pandemics – and the differences in each story could haunt the continent for many years to come
How to prevent Germany from becoming Eurosceptic
To engage more confidently with a world that is changing, outward-looking Germans need to shape a progressive new national identity before it is defined by the forces of isolation and exclusion
The geopolitics of the European Green Deal
The EU should become a global standard-setter for the energy transition, and prepare to manage the profound geopolitical repercussions of the Green Deal in its relationships with its neighbourhood
The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
Most Europeans rejoiced at Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election, but they do not think he can help America make a comeback as the pre-eminent global leader
Articles
China Is Ready for a World of Disorder
The very different responses of China and the United States to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed the divergence in Beijing’s and Washington’s thinking. In Washington,…
The Post-American Middle East
The recent ceasefire between Israel and Islamic Jihad, the detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the de-escalation in Yemen have all been accomplished with minimal Western involvement. While this may be just a temporary lull in Middle Eastern violence, it may also offer a glimpse into the multipolar future
The Ukraine war and European identity
With the war in Ukraine well into its second year, European politicians from across the political spectrum are still eager to show their support for the country. But a battle for the soul of Europe is brewing beneath the surface, and next year’s European Parliament elections could serve as its first battleground.
Xi Jinping’s idea of world order
The real battle for international supremacy today is not between democracies and autocracies, but between different models of global order, with China and the West each offering its own distinct account of “democracy”. The sooner that Western leaders recognise this, the better chance they will have of attracting new partners
Mob diplomacy
To understand today’s geopolitical ructions, one must look beyond major powers’ governments and top strategists. As the recent Chinese balloon saga showed, public opinion is increasingly in the driver’s seat, and it is steering international relations away from open, honest dialogue
The next globalisation
There is growing support for the idea that the world is experiencing not ‘deglobalisation’ but rather ‘re-globalisation’, owing to accelerating changes in energy and technology. Nonetheless, the differences between the next wave of globalisation and the last one will far outweigh the similarities
2023: The year we learn to stop worrying
Ten predictions for what’s coming in the world of 2023. Plus a Tik-Tok bonus.
Russia-proofing Europe
Although Ukrainians are heading into a hard winter sustained by a sense of optimism and hope for peace in the near future, this is no time for complacency. The West, and especially the European Union, must get serious about positioning itself for a protracted, multi-pronged conflict.
Peak Atlantic unity?
A few short years after being declared brain dead, the transatlantic alliance is thriving, with Americans and Europeans coordinating their response to Russian aggression and sharing similar views on China. But new storm clouds are gathering, and Europeans must prepare for darker days ahead.
Preparing for the Long War
Amid the euphoria following recent Ukrainian battlefield victories, some commentators are cautiously optimistic that Ukraine could win the war by the spring. But Vladimir Putin’s latest moves suggest that Russia is settling in for a long war of attrition that will test European resolve.
Specials
The Power Atlas
Power is now defined by control over flows of people, goods, money, and data, and via the connections they establish. Only states that see the new map of geopolitical power clearly will be able to control the modern world.
What Europeans really want: Five myths debunked
New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs.
Podcasts
Understanding the multipolar Middle East
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh and Alistair Burt to understand the new multipolar order in the Middle East
The end of Germany’s China illusion with Janka Oertel
Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel to discuss her new book “End of the China illusion” and the West’s biggest misconceptions about China
Defending the open society with Mark Malloch-Brown
Mark Leonard welcomes Mark Malloch-Brown to discuss the future of the open society model in Europe and the world
The great reset? How the EU and the UK can rethink their security and defence cooperation
In this seventh episode of our mini-series , Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison talk to Nick Witney and Camille Grand about the potential for a great reset in UK-EU relations, especially regarding cooperation on defence
The Great Reset? Challenges and opportunities for EU-UK cooperation
In this sixth episode of our mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison talk to Philip Rycroft about the potential for a great reset in UK-EU relations
Podcast special: Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death
Mark Leonard welcomes Theo Murphy, Pavel Slunkin, Kadri Liik, and Kirill Shamiev to shed light on the possible consequences of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death
The Great Reset? How the EU and the UK can rethink their economic cooperation with Ivan Rogers
In this fifth episode of our new mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison talk to Ivan Rogers about the potential for a great reset in UK-EU relations
The Great Reset? How the EU and the UK can rethink their cooperation on climate and energy with Nick Butler
In this fourth episode of our new mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison talk to Nick Butler about the potential for a great reset in UK-EU relations
The Great Reset? The view from Brussels with Mujtaba Rahman
In this third episode of our new mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison talk to Mujtaba Rahman about the potential for a great reset in UK-EU relations
The great reset? How the EU and the UK can rethink their cooperation on foreign policy with David Lidington
In this second episode of our new mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison talk to David Lidington about the potential for a great reset in UK-EU relations
Events
8 Jul
New paperback released – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict
Mark Leonard will launch his newly released paperback edition of his book – The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict (Penguin) with a brand-new essay on the war in Ukraine and its implications for geopolitics
29 Mar
The birth of geopolitical Europe: In conversation with Josep Borrell
With the EU’s High Representative as our honoured guest, the panel will explore the birth of a geopolitical Europe and the new dimensions of European power with a focus on the tech, economic, and security terrains
10 Mar
The EU and Japan: Strategic partners in the Indo-Pacific
In collaboration with the Embassy of Japan in Madrid, ECFR has organised a public virtual debate to explore how the EU and the Indo-Pacific can build a strategic alliance and how the EU-Japan relationship can drive this process
5 May
Transatlantic relations after President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office
How central is the EU to the US and its interests in Europe? And how does the public in European countries view Biden’s America?
15 Mar
European Power in a Biden Era: what role for France and Germany?
ECFR’s latest polling finds that Europeans celebrated Joe Biden’s victory but are sceptical that we will see a global resurgence of US power and…
3 Feb
The Geopolitics of the Green Deal
How to manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal and lead climate change efforts globally
21 Jan
THINKING BIG WITH Anne-Marie Slaughter
From climate, digital or security – what structures for global cooperation will emerge in a post-Merkel era and Biden presidency?
19 Jan
The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
The event will launch an exciting new report by Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, based on public opinion polling in 11 countries
21 Dec
Sovereign Europe, hostile world: In conversation with Josep Borrell, HRVP
The EU’s High Representative, Josep Borrell, and Mark Leonard discussed why strategic autonomy matters
1 Dec
THINKING BIG WITH Joseph S. Nye
Can America come back, as President-elect Joe Biden announced? Mark Leonard debates the idea with Joseph S. Nye
In the media
Mark Leonard on the upcoming Polish elections
Contrary to how it may appear to many, not least in the US, the new cold war seems to be based not on the old logic of polarization, but on a new logic of fragmentation
Following the latest BRICS Summit, Mark Leonard writes about the evolving nature of the international order
Although there is lively debate on the war in Ukraine —more than one would perhaps expect— the Chinese are thinking about it very differently from people in the west
Mark Leonard and Alicja Bachulska’s op-ed in Chinese perception of the war in Ukraine
The stakes are high, because where Germany goes, the rest of Europe often follows
Mark Leonard on trade relations between Germany and China
Mark Leonard on what Chinese think tankers and policymakers think of the war in Ukraine