Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
Experts & Staff
Marie Dumoulin
Director, Wider Europe programme
Areas of expertise
Europe's Eastern neighbourhood, Russia, protracted conflicts
Languages
French, English, German, Russian, Arabic
Biography
Marie Dumoulin is the director of the Wider Europe programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Prior to joining ECFR, Dumoulin worked as a French career diplomat. She held a number of positions in French diplomatic missions abroad, e.g. in Turkmenistan, Algeria, Germany, and was seconded to the German Foreign Ministry during the German OSCE Chairmanship. Dumoulin worked with the policy planning staff (CAPS) and headed the Russia and Eastern Europe Department of the French Foreign Ministry. She has extensive experience with settlement processes of protracted conflicts in Europe’s Eastern neighbourhood.
Dumoulin holds a PhD from the Paris Institute for Political Science (Sciences Po).
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
Unmoved: Why a ban on Russians’ visas won’t help
It is wishful thinking to believe that travel restrictions on Russian nationals would affect the Kremlin’s policies
Wilder Europe: Enlargement and a European political community
A European political community would help candidates for EU membership resist outside pressure and enact democratic and economic reforms
Changer things: Kazakhstan’s second republic
Recent changes to Kazakhstan’s constitution seem to weaken the president’s powers. Yet there are reasons to fear they will be mere window dressing for the continuation of authoritarianism.
The meaning of victory: How Russia’s war on Ukraine could divide Europeans
Support for Ukraine is both morally correct and in the best interests of the EU. Europeans should use this moment of unity to address several long-term challenges linked to the conflict.
European solidarity and the Russia-Ukraine war
How sustainable is European unity? And what scenarios of solidarity or division can be expected in the next few months?
War in Ukraine: a stale-mate for the West and NATO’s future?
How should Europe react to Russian loss or indeed victory in this war? And what are the possible ramifications for the West?
Echo of empire: Why Russia’s war on Ukraine troubles all post-Soviet countries
Russia’s war on Ukraine could have a heavy impact on other post-Soviet countries. Unless the EU helps these countries deal with the effects of the conflict, they could become increasingly dependent on the Kremlin.
War in Ukraine
As the situation at the Ukrainian border escalates, Mark Leonard and his guests talk about the recent developments and the state of play at the ground
Publications
Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of middle powers
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
Steppe change: How Russia’s war on Ukraine is reshaping Kazakhstan
Domestic unrest and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine left Kazakhstan in a precarious position. The EU should devise an approach that encourages and guides the country to genuine domestic transformation.
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
Articles
The war of opportunity: How Azerbaijan’s offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh is shifting the geopolitics of the South Caucasus
Geopolitical shifts created an opportune moment for Azerbaijan to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh. With the current ceasefire on shaky ground, the EU needs to use the leverage it has to prevent further escalation
One step beyond: Why the EU needs a Russia strategy
The EU needs a Russia strategy that looks beyond the war in Ukraine. Such a policy should centre around support for countries that border Russia, the reduction of Russia’s influence worldwide, and preparation for scenarios of change within the country
Grain of truth: Why Russia rejoined the Ukraine food export deal
Turkey’s strength in the Black Sea may have persuaded Russia to return to the Ukraine grain export deal. But the agreement also lends another string to its bow
Russia’s indecision: Armenia and Azerbaijan return to violence
Moscow has declined to choose between its old friend Armenia and newer friend Azerbaijan. But the EU still has some way to go to make a difference through diplomacy.
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
The SCO is often seen as the anti-NATO, but Putin will struggle to convince the other members – especially the Central Asian states – that his war is more important than Chinese investment
Unmoved: Why a ban on Russians’ visas won’t help
It is wishful thinking to believe that travel restrictions on Russian nationals would affect the Kremlin’s policies
Wilder Europe: Enlargement and a European political community
A European political community would help candidates for EU membership resist outside pressure and enact democratic and economic reforms
Changer things: Kazakhstan’s second republic
Recent changes to Kazakhstan’s constitution seem to weaken the president’s powers. Yet there are reasons to fear they will be mere window dressing for the continuation of authoritarianism.
The meaning of victory: How Russia’s war on Ukraine could divide Europeans
Support for Ukraine is both morally correct and in the best interests of the EU. Europeans should use this moment of unity to address several long-term challenges linked to the conflict.
Echo of empire: Why Russia’s war on Ukraine troubles all post-Soviet countries
Russia’s war on Ukraine could have a heavy impact on other post-Soviet countries. Unless the EU helps these countries deal with the effects of the conflict, they could become increasingly dependent on the Kremlin.
Podcasts
Podcast special: Wagner v Putin
Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin, Kadri Liik, Pavel Slunkin and Kiril Shamiev to shed light on the weekend’s events and discuss the new reality that has opened up in Russia
Macron and Europe: the French vision for strategic autonomy
Last week, France’s president Emmanuel Macron threw the EU bubble into turmoil by suggesting that Europe should not become the United States’ “vassal” over Taiwan
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
European solidarity and the Russia-Ukraine war
How sustainable is European unity? And what scenarios of solidarity or division can be expected in the next few months?
War in Ukraine: a stale-mate for the West and NATO’s future?
How should Europe react to Russian loss or indeed victory in this war? And what are the possible ramifications for the West?
War in Ukraine
As the situation at the Ukrainian border escalates, Mark Leonard and his guests talk about the recent developments and the state of play at the ground
Europe’s role in tackling the Russia-Ukraine crisis
What are European and American interests in the Russia-Ukraine crisis? What are possible ways to avert a calamity?
The Russian troop build-up near Ukraine
How serious is the Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border? And what should NATO do about it?
Events
31 Jan
Power audit of EU-Russia relations: How Europeans are learning to handle a new reality
Concluding that Russia poses a threat and that the EU let its dependencies grow too deep, the bloc so far attempted to decouple from Moscow. How should Europeans navigate the adversarial relationship in the future?
1 Feb
European security order on the brink: The Russia crisis and what next
West do prevent an aggression against Ukraine? What does Kyiv expect from the EU and NATO? What is the future of the European security order? What are the perspectives of the key EU member states and Ukraine?
27 Jan
Tensions in the East: How to strengthen a common European position vis-à-vis Russia?
This webinar will bring together a collection of EU and British views to see where everyone stands on the Russia-Ukraine crisis
17 Jan
CSTO intervention in Kazakhstan: what is it about and what is Russia’s agenda?
What consequences could the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation intervention have for Kazakhstan and the geopolitical balance in Central Asia?
In the media
I wouldn’t expect too much from these talks as there is a misbalanced equation and Azerbaijan has no great deal of interest
Marie Dumoulin on the latest clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh and on their upcoming talks
“Since the 2020 war, Russia has been very reluctant to choose between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which actually meant that they chose Azerbaijan.”
Marie Dumoulin analyses Armenia-Russia relations in regards to the conflict with Azerbaijan
Armenians are disappointed by the lack of support from Russia, which they deemed their main security guarantor and a strategic ally within the CSTO military alliance
Marie Dumoulin comments on the newly sparked crisis between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Nagorno Karabakh and on Russia’s complex position
Whether Russia is now able to mediate a renewed ceasefire remains to be seen. This would probably come with a high political cost for the Armenian government
Marie Dumoulin on Russia’s potential role as a mediator in Nagorno-Karabakh
After mediating the 2020 ceasefire, Russia has been unwilling to take sides in the conflict, effectively allowing Azerbaijan to steer the situation
Marie Dumoulin comments on Russia-Armenia relations after Azerbaijan’s offensive on Nagorno-Karabakh