Averting a wider war: Three ways to address the Israel-Hizbullah confrontation
Europeans can act now to help prevent an escalatory cycle in the Middle East and protect key European interests
Experts & Staff
Julien Barnes-Dacey
Director, Middle East and North Africa programme
Interim Director, Africa programme
Areas of expertise
Middle East and North Africa
Languages
English, French, Arabic
Biography
Julien Barnes-Dacey is the director of the Middle East & North Africa programme and interim director of the Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He works on European policy towards the wider region, with a particular focus on Syria and regional geopolitics.
Barnes-Dacey’s recent publications include “Principled pragmatism: Europe’s place in a multipolar Middle East,” “Society max: How Europe can help Syrians survive Assad and coronavirus,” and “Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East.” His work has been published in the likes of Foreign Policy, Politico, the Financial Times, and the New York Times.
Immediately prior to joining ECFR Barnes-Dacey headed the MENA practice at Control Risks, a private sector consultancy. Before this he worked as a journalist across the Middle East. Based in Syria from 2007 to 2010, he reported for publications including the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Christian Science Monitor. He worked across Iraq as editor of Niqash and was also based in Egypt. Barnes-Dacey was an assistant foreign editor for UK television’s Channel 4 News, and a field producer for Al Jazeera International.
Barnes-Dacey holds a BA in history from the London School of Economics, an MA in Middle Eastern Studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies, and studied Arabic at the Institut Français du Proche-Orient.
Ceasefire and beyond: Advancing a post-conflict plan for Gaza
As the devastation mounts in Gaza, European leaders need to call for a ceasefire and a broader diplomatic track to secure urgent humanitarian objectives, before turning to a realistic post-conflict plan that can address security needs for Israelis and Palestinians
Bracing for a broader conflict: How the Israel-Hamas war could escalate
The unfolding war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas is at the precipice of a broader regional conflict. Europeans must urgently join regional efforts to support preventive diplomacy and avoid escalation
Podcast special: Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel
Mark Leonard welcomes Eran Etzion, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Hugh Lovatt to discuss Hamas’s offensive against Israel and its effects on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the wider Middle East
How Europeans should respond to the Hamas offensive against Israel
In the aftermath of the brutal assault by Hamas, Europeans need to focus on ensuring the war does not spiral out of control
Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of middle powers
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
Intersections of influence: IMEC and Europe’s role in a multipolar Middle East
A new trade corridor linking India to Europe via the Middle East can offer opportunities for Europeans to strengthen their geo-economic influence with the Gulf. It can also be an opportunity for de-risking, but Europe should not expect to dislodge Chinese influence
Internalising peace: How to build on Saudi-Iranian de-escalation for a settlement in Yemen
The normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran has provided welcome impetus towards peace in Yemen. But resolving the regional dimension of the conflict should not come at the expense of inclusive, intra-Yemeni negotiations under UN auspices
The Iran-Saudi deal and its impact
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Cinzia Bianco and Andrew Small, to talk about the new Saudi – Iran deal
The shoots of stability: What the Saudi-Iran deal means for the Middle East and Europe
Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to begin the process of normalising their relations. Europeans should consider how to help entrench the stabilising gains of the agreement – even as they navigate difficulties with Iran
Publications
Mending fences: Europe’s stake in the Saudi-Iran detente
Saudi-Iran diplomacy offers a rare path to prevent deepening conflict in the Middle East and support regional stability. Europeans should see this diplomacy as a chance to address their core interests, and not just as Iran’s attempt to bypass Western pressure
Beyond proxies: Iran’s deeper strategy in Syria and Lebanon
Iran has spent decades building up its influence in the Levant as part of its deterrence posture against Israel (and the US). The war in Gaza is now pushing the longstanding Israeli-Iranian conflict out into the open – and Lebanon and Syria are potential flashpoints for further escalation
Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of middle powers
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
Principled pragmatism: Europe’s place in a multipolar Middle East
Europeans need to deal with the Middle East as it is rather than as they want it to be, while staying focused on the principles needed to secure longer-term stability
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
Promoting European strategic sovereignty in the southern neighbourhood
To achieve greater sovereignty, Europe needs to push back against rival powers, build leverage in armed conflicts, and be more effective in supporting reform
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Society max: How Europe can help Syrians survive Assad and coronavirus
European governments should pivot to a strategy focused on protecting those societal forces that are still standing and that can help salvage a better future
To end a war: Europe’s role in bringing peace to Syria
National politics need to be front and centre in de-escalation efforts
The war next door: Syria and the erosion of stability in Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey
Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey have so far been resilient to the spillover from Syria’s civil war, but now the region’s stability is hanging by a thread
Articles
The road ahead: Six ways Europeans can urgently support a stable Syria
After the fall of Assad, many Syrians hope for a better future. But intense political and economic challenges risk derailing the transition. Europeans urgently need to do more to help stabilise Syria’s path in line with their own core interests
The fall of Assad: Europeans have an opportunity to help forge a new Syria
Following a ten-day advance, Syrian rebels have toppled the regime of Bashar al-Assad. European governments should step up support for a stabilising, power-sharing transition to protect their regional interests – and Syria’s citizens
Back to the battlefield: A new chapter in Syria’s civil war
Syrian rebel forces have seized Aleppo, reigniting the country’s civil war. As Bashar al-Assad remobilises, the country is likely to be sucked into a new cycle of devastating violence
Dangerous manoeuvres: How Israel and Iran are preparing for Trump 2.0
As Donald Trump prepares for his second US presidency, Iranian and Israeli military manoeuvring during President Biden’s lame-duck period risks drawing the US into all-out war in the Middle East
The point of no return: Why the EU must not send Syrians refugees back
European leaders are debating how to increase Syrian refugee returns. But rather than pushing for deportations, the bloc should focus on addressing security concerns and improving economic conditions inside Syria to encourage voluntary returns
After Nasrallah: Ways to de-escalate the burgeoning Middle East conflict
Europeans should use their leverage with Israel and Iran to work towards regional peace
Israel’s unwinnable wars: The path to de-escalation in the Middle East
The Middle East is on the brink of a full-blown regional conflict. Western efforts to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hizbullah will fail without pressure on Israel to accept a ceasefire in Gaza
Going ballistic: How Europeans can respond to Iranian military support for Russia
European and US governments announced this week that Iran has supplied Russia with several hundred short range ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine…
Direct destabilisation: Iran’s attack on Israel
Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israel risks further escalation in the Middle East. European leaders should join the US in pressing Israel not to retaliate with strikes on Iran – or the region could end up embroiled in an all-consuming war
Averting a wider war: Three ways to address the Israel-Hizbullah confrontation
Europeans can act now to help prevent an escalatory cycle in the Middle East and protect key European interests
Specials
The Gaza crisis: Mapping the Middle East’s shifting battle lines
This new ECFR mapping project identifies the spillover effects of the Gaza war in countries across the Middle East
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Deep sea rivals: Europe, Turkey, and new eastern Mediterranean conflict lines
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Podcasts
Live from the Doha Forum: The Middle East after Assad
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Vali Nasr to discuss shifting dynamics in the Middle East and their implications for global geopolitics
Ceasefire in Lebanon
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey to discuss the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon
Regional war in the Middle East: Anatomy of a conflict one year after 7 October
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Hugh Lovatt to discuss the regional war in the Middle East one year on from the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel
Podcast special: Iran attacks Israel
On Saturday evening, Iran launched a major attack on Israeli territory, with a combination of 300 drones and missiles. Israel’s air defense seems to have…
The future of the war in Gaza
Mark Leonard welcomes Hugh Lovatt, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss the current situation in Gaza and the possible futures of the war
Podcast special: Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel
Mark Leonard welcomes Eran Etzion, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Hugh Lovatt to discuss Hamas’s offensive against Israel and its effects on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the wider Middle East
The Iran-Saudi deal and its impact
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Cinzia Bianco and Andrew Small, to talk about the new Saudi – Iran deal
The Middle East and the Ukraine war: energy supplies, nuclear deals and regional tensions
On location at the Doha Forum 2022, Mark Leonard and his guests discuss Western energy sanctions on Russia and why is there a reluctance in the Gulf states and the West to cooperate on energy supplies
Syria’s war, Europe’s problem
What does the re-engagement of regional actors mean for the future of Syria? And what role can Europe play to create breathing space in the country?
Europe’s role in a post-American Middle East
Who is filling the vacuum which the US is increasingly leaving behind in the MENA region? How are regional actors reacting to US disengagement?
Events
31 Mar
Rewiring alliances: Africa-Europe-Gulf relations amid geopolitical turmoil
Drawing on insights from a recent ECFR policy brief, “Diversification nations: The Gulf way to engage with Africa“, this event aims to explore the…
21 Oct
How Europeans can help stabilise the Sahel
A decade of military, humanitarian, and developmental European interventions in the Sahelian states of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have failed comprehensively. Yet, European governments…
19 Jun
After October 7 and after Raisi: Where next for Iranian foreign policy and the Western response?
A discussion assessing Iranian foreign policy following Hamas’s attacks of 7 October, Israel’s war on Gaza and the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
13 Dec
Part of the problem? A better European approach to human rights in the Middle East and North Africa
How can Europeans more effectively advance their human rights agenda as part of, and while maintaining, their broader relationships with regional states?
In the media
Moving towards reconstruction and redevelopment, you would need US and European action in tandem
Julien Barnes-Dacey on the EU lifting sanctions on Syria and the importance of the US following suit
The dire state of the economy is clearly one of the biggest challenges facing a positive transition
Julien Barnes-Dacey on EU lifting sanctions on Syria
The EU has been in the direct line of fire of the Syrian conflict in terms of migration, terrorism and wider instability, so there is a clear interest in seeing a stabilised Syria moving forward
Julien Barnes-Dacey on Europe’s interest to support the power transition in Syria
Julien Barnes-Dacey on lifting sanctions on Syria
Julien Barnes-Dacey on EU policy towards Syria