Geopolitics in the coronavirus era – who will be crowned winner?
Last week’s episode saw our experts dissecting the coronavirus’ implications for Europe. In today's episode, we’re breaking down how the crisis is unfolding in the…
Experts & Staff
Julien Barnes-Dacey
Director, Middle East and North Africa programme
Areas of expertise
Middle East and North Africa
Languages
English, French, Arabic
Biography
Julien Barnes-Dacey is the director of the Middle East & North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He works on European policy towards the wider region, with a particular focus on Syria and regional geopolitics.
Barnes-Dacey’s recent publications include “Principled pragmatism: Europe’s place in a multipolar Middle East,” “Society max: How Europe can help Syrians survive Assad and coronavirus,” and “Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East.” His work has been published in the likes of Foreign Policy, Politico, the Financial Times, and the New York Times.
Immediately prior to joining ECFR Barnes-Dacey headed the MENA practice at Control Risks, a private sector consultancy. Before this he worked as a journalist across the Middle East. Based in Syria from 2007 to 2010, he reported for publications including the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Christian Science Monitor. He worked across Iraq as editor of Niqash and was also based in Egypt. Barnes-Dacey was an assistant foreign editor for UK television’s Channel 4 News, and a field producer for Al Jazeera International.
Barnes-Dacey holds a BA in history from the London School of Economics, an MA in Middle Eastern Studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies, and studied Arabic at the Institut Français du Proche-Orient.
Infected: The impact of the coronavirus on the Middle East and north Africa
The coronavirus has hit the Middle East and north Africa at a time when the region is already burdened with multiple problems, including a series…
Many elephants in the room: the EU and the Turkey, Syria, coronavirus and refugee crises
The European Union faces a multi-crisis situation at the moment. As the conflict in Idlib and the circumstances at the Greek-Turkish border has erupted, Europe…
How Europe should respond to the assault on Idlib
A horrific humanitarian crisis is unfolding on Europe’s doorstep and Europeans are nowhere to be seen.
De “facto declaration of war”? – Soleimani’s killing as turning point in the Middle East
With the US-killing of the Iranian military leader, Qassem Soleimani, the Middle East has been yet again sent in the heart to geopolitical uncertainty and…
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
4 ways Europeans should respond to the Lebanon and Iraq protests
Europeans can help the Lebanese and Iraqi people achieve their reform goals. Here’s how.
Another fine mess: Syria after the US exit
Turkey’s invasion means Europeans can no longer be bystanders to Syria. They must now take three urgent steps.
Europe with no cards to play: Erdoğan, Trump, and Europe’s weaknesses
Turkey's offensive into northeast Syria is moving at an unprecedented pace with grave consequences. Europe's utter irrelevance in the face of US withdrawal from the Turkish/Syrian…
The geopolitics of reconstruction: Who will rebuild Syria?
Rebuilding Syria will not be needs driven, rather the regime will aim to subdue the emergence of meaningful civilian opposition
Publications
Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of middle powers
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
Principled pragmatism: Europe’s place in a multipolar Middle East
Europeans need to deal with the Middle East as it is rather than as they want it to be, while staying focused on the principles needed to secure longer-term stability
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
Promoting European strategic sovereignty in the southern neighbourhood
To achieve greater sovereignty, Europe needs to push back against rival powers, build leverage in armed conflicts, and be more effective in supporting reform
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Society max: How Europe can help Syrians survive Assad and coronavirus
European governments should pivot to a strategy focused on protecting those societal forces that are still standing and that can help salvage a better future
To end a war: Europe’s role in bringing peace to Syria
National politics need to be front and centre in de-escalation efforts
The war next door: Syria and the erosion of stability in Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey
Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey have so far been resilient to the spillover from Syria’s civil war, but now the region’s stability is hanging by a thread
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2016
The sixth ECFR Foreign Policy Scorecard highlights the EU’s diminishing ability to influence its neighbours, and the neighbourhood’s growing impact on the EU
Syrian Diplomacy Renewed: From Vienna to Raqqa
An “Islamic State first” strategy, that neglects the urgent need to secure political progress and de-escalation in Syria will fail
Articles
Ceasefire and beyond: Advancing a post-conflict plan for Gaza
As the devastation mounts in Gaza, European leaders need to call for a ceasefire and a broader diplomatic track to secure urgent humanitarian objectives, before turning to a realistic post-conflict plan that can address security needs for Israelis and Palestinians
Bracing for a broader conflict: How the Israel-Hamas war could escalate
The unfolding war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas is at the precipice of a broader regional conflict. Europeans must urgently join regional efforts to support preventive diplomacy and avoid escalation
How Europeans should respond to the Hamas offensive against Israel
In the aftermath of the brutal assault by Hamas, Europeans need to focus on ensuring the war does not spiral out of control
Intersections of influence: IMEC and Europe’s role in a multipolar Middle East
A new trade corridor linking India to Europe via the Middle East can offer opportunities for Europeans to strengthen their geo-economic influence with the Gulf. It can also be an opportunity for de-risking, but Europe should not expect to dislodge Chinese influence
Internalising peace: How to build on Saudi-Iranian de-escalation for a settlement in Yemen
The normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran has provided welcome impetus towards peace in Yemen. But resolving the regional dimension of the conflict should not come at the expense of inclusive, intra-Yemeni negotiations under UN auspices
The shoots of stability: What the Saudi-Iran deal means for the Middle East and Europe
Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to begin the process of normalising their relations. Europeans should consider how to help entrench the stabilising gains of the agreement – even as they navigate difficulties with Iran
Humanitarian first: Delivering aid to Syria in the aftermath of the earthquake
In the aftermath of the earthquake, minimal aid is reaching north-west Syria, the most affected region in the country. European governments need to put humanitarian imperatives first, even if this means temporarily abandoning longstanding political positions
Three ways European governments can support Iranian protesters
The protest movement sweeping Iran is an Iranian-led struggle. But European governments can play their part by focusing on measures that help protect protesters.
Global pitch: The World Cup, Gulf Arab states, and the Middle East’s losing sides
The World Cup in Qatar, with all its money and glitz, shines a light on the disconnect between winners and losers in the Middle East
Order of engagement: Assad’s visit to Abu Dhabi
The UAE’s embrace of Assad is central to the construction of a new regional order that preserves Emirati influence
Specials
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Deep sea rivals: Europe, Turkey, and new eastern Mediterranean conflict lines
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria.
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Podcasts
Podcast special: Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel
Mark Leonard welcomes Eran Etzion, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Hugh Lovatt to discuss Hamas’s offensive against Israel and its effects on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the wider Middle East
The Iran-Saudi deal and its impact
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Cinzia Bianco and Andrew Small, to talk about the new Saudi – Iran deal
The Middle East and the Ukraine war: energy supplies, nuclear deals and regional tensions
On location at the Doha Forum 2022, Mark Leonard and his guests discuss Western energy sanctions on Russia and why is there a reluctance in the Gulf states and the West to cooperate on energy supplies
Syria’s war, Europe’s problem
What does the re-engagement of regional actors mean for the future of Syria? And what role can Europe play to create breathing space in the country?
Europe’s role in a post-American Middle East
Who is filling the vacuum which the US is increasingly leaving behind in the MENA region? How are regional actors reacting to US disengagement?
The election of President Ebrahim Raisi and the future of Iran
Does the election of Raisi represent a significant change of direction following the term of President Rouhani?
Understanding the conflict in Western Sahara
What is the Western Sahara conflict is all about, and how will the most recent developments between Morocco and Spain influence this conflict?
How the Turkey-UAE Rivalry is remaking the Middle East
How can the EU prevent the Turkey-UAE rivalry from destabilising European security and foreign policy?
Europe’s new transatlantic bargain for Biden’s America
When Biden enters the White House, he will look for a Europe that brings solutions rather than problems. Europeans should show they can be an equal partner & offer him a new transatlantic bargain.
ECFR Conversation with Ibrahim Kalin
ECFR Conversation with Ibrahim Kalin, Spokesman and Senior Advisor to the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Chaired by Julien Barnes-Dacey, Director of ECFR’s…
Events
13 Dec
Part of the problem? A better European approach to human rights in the Middle East and North Africa
How can Europeans more effectively advance their human rights agenda as part of, and while maintaining, their broader relationships with regional states?
In the media
In this op-ed, Julien Barnes-Dacey and Jeremy Shapiro explain why the West should give up the battle of narratives
The key external actors here are the U.S. and Iran, with Paris having a much weaker hand
Julien Barnes-Dacey comments on Macron’s stance on the Israel-Gaza war
It also seems likely the [Assad] regime is trying to take advantage of the current international focus on Israel and Gaza to intensify its attacks, believing that it will have more space to maneuver
Julien Barnes-Dacey comments on the developments in the Syrian civil war and their connection to the conflict in Israel and Gaza
In this interview, Julien Barnes-Dacey talks about Europe’s stance on the Israel-Gaza war, its relations with Israel and its reputation in the global south
The bottom line is that European governments have lined up in full support of Israel
Julien Barnes-Dacey comments on Europe’s foreign policy on the Israel-Gaza war and its effects on the EU’s influence on the global south