America’s trade-off: Israel, Ukraine, and the inescapable China question
The US too often falls for its own superpower myth and fails to prioritise among its foreign policy commitments – including its present China challenge, which has not gone away
Jeremy Shapiro
Why Americans will eventually sour on the war on Ukraine (but not soon)
Support in the US for Ukraine will one day soften. Europeans need to formulate their own plan to continue the long war for when it does
Compromise at Vilnius: Ukraine’s path to NATO membership
A form of membership offer to Ukraine at NATO’s Vilnius summit will acquire an inexorable momentum of its own
How the West should prepare for the Turkish elections
The US and the EU should refrain from making any interventions during Turkey’s election period – but they may need to respond quickly depending on the results of the vote
2023: The year we learn to stop worrying
Ten predictions for what’s coming in the world of 2023. Plus a Tik-Tok bonus.
Polarised power: The three Republican ‘tribes’ that could define America’s relationship with the world
Three Republican ‘tribes’ are competing to write their next president’s US foreign policy. Whether ‘restrainers,’ ‘prioritisers,’ or ‘primacists’ emerge on top will have profound implications for Europe and the globe
The coming transatlantic rift over Ukraine
Europeans will have to put their money where their mouth is to maintain relations with the US over Ukraine – and deliver a ‘long war plan’, such as that proposed by ECFR
No laughing MAGA: What the next US presidential election could mean for Europe
Europeans should be concerned not just with whether Trump will win but how to deal with the version of post-Trump America that could emerge in 2025
The exaggerated death of European sovereignty
The US may have dominated Western efforts to defend Ukraine, but future American leaders will expect Europeans to take up most of the burden of dealing with Russia
Don’t mention the war in Ukraine: Germany’s deteriorating image in Washington
America as a political community is losing faith in Germany. Even if the Biden administration is currently satisfied with a Germany that does the minimum, this is hardly a foundation on which to build a new leadership model for the European security order.
Publications
Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe
Fierce debates are raging among both Republicans and Democrats about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Europeans should take note and prepare
The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support.
Beyond Global Britain: A realistic foreign policy for the UK
The UK government’s vision for Global Britain does not reflect today’s geostrategic realities. Yet the UK can forge an effective foreign policy if it focuses on British strengths, avoids military adventures in distant lands, and finds balanced, effective working relationships with the EU and the US.
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
The geopolitics of the European Green Deal
The EU should become a global standard-setter for the energy transition, and prepare to manage the profound geopolitical repercussions of the Green Deal in its relationships with its neighbourhood
Sovereign Europe, dangerous world: Five agendas to protect Europe’s capacity to act
To manage in this new world, the EU and its members need to embark on a broad-based effort to recover their strategic sovereignty
Europe’s digital sovereignty: From rulemaker to superpower in the age of US-China rivalry
The EU cannot continue to rely on its regulatory power but must become a tech superpower in its own right. Referees do not win the game.
Health sovereignty: How to build a resilient European response to pandemics
Europe must improve its early warning systems, supply chain resilience, medical R&D, and cyber security and technology, to act decisively in future emergencies
Strategic sovereignty: How Europe can regain the capacity to act
The EU needs to learn to think like a geopolitical power
Articles
America’s trade-off: Israel, Ukraine, and the inescapable China question
The US too often falls for its own superpower myth and fails to prioritise among its foreign policy commitments – including its present China challenge, which has not gone away
Why Americans will eventually sour on the war on Ukraine (but not soon)
Support in the US for Ukraine will one day soften. Europeans need to formulate their own plan to continue the long war for when it does
Compromise at Vilnius: Ukraine’s path to NATO membership
A form of membership offer to Ukraine at NATO’s Vilnius summit will acquire an inexorable momentum of its own
How the West should prepare for the Turkish elections
The US and the EU should refrain from making any interventions during Turkey’s election period – but they may need to respond quickly depending on the results of the vote
2023: The year we learn to stop worrying
Ten predictions for what’s coming in the world of 2023. Plus a Tik-Tok bonus.
Polarised power: The three Republican ‘tribes’ that could define America’s relationship with the world
Three Republican ‘tribes’ are competing to write their next president’s US foreign policy. Whether ‘restrainers,’ ‘prioritisers,’ or ‘primacists’ emerge on top will have profound implications for Europe and the globe
The coming transatlantic rift over Ukraine
Europeans will have to put their money where their mouth is to maintain relations with the US over Ukraine – and deliver a ‘long war plan’, such as that proposed by ECFR
No laughing MAGA: What the next US presidential election could mean for Europe
Europeans should be concerned not just with whether Trump will win but how to deal with the version of post-Trump America that could emerge in 2025
The exaggerated death of European sovereignty
The US may have dominated Western efforts to defend Ukraine, but future American leaders will expect Europeans to take up most of the burden of dealing with Russia
Don’t mention the war in Ukraine: Germany’s deteriorating image in Washington
America as a political community is losing faith in Germany. Even if the Biden administration is currently satisfied with a Germany that does the minimum, this is hardly a foundation on which to build a new leadership model for the European security order.
Specials
Fear and loathing on the road to the US elections
European leaders are underestimating the danger that Trump presents to the transatlantic alliance and assuming too much continuity in the event of a Clinton presidency
Podcasts
What the war in Gaza means for Turkey
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Dimitar Bechev discuss what the conflict in the Middle East means for Turkey’s foreign policy
Living in an à la carte world: What European policymakers should learn from global public opinion
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard to discuss how public sentiment can guide Europe in building partnerships and the world of tomorrow
The consequences of the war in Gaza for Ukraine
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Gustav Gressel and Kirill Shamiev to talk about the consequences of the war in Gaza for Ukraine
What Europe can expect from the next US president
Mark Leonard welcomes Majda Ruge and Jeremy Shapiro to discuss how the 2024 US presidential election will affect transatlantic relations
How the West should prepare for the Turkish elections
Mark Leonard is joined by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro, to talk about the upcoming Turkish elections
The US, Europe, and the art of vassalisation
This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Jeremy Shapiro and Jana Puglierin to discuss EU-US relations
The Leopards are free!
Mark Leonard, Camille Grand, Gustav Gressel, Jana Puglierin, and Jeremy Shapiro discuss what the Leopard 2 decision means for the war in Ukraine
Top ten foreign policy trends for 2023
Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro forecast the foreign policy trends and events for the year ahead
Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR’s Piotr Buras, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik, and Jeremy Shapiro to describe and debate the potential military, security, and economic aspects of the long-war plan
Rogue NATO: The new face of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro joins an all-star ECFR panel of experts to discuss the SCO summit’s geopolitical implications
Events
22 May
European defence: Expectations and demands of non-EU partners
This event is part of the German Forum on Security Policy, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS).
12 May
Green energy and China: How to avoid new dependencies?
Rhodium Group are delighted to invite you to the virtual launch event of our new policy paper “Circuit Breakers: Securing the Green Energy Supply Chain”
21 Feb
Can Europe stand up to Chinese and Russian economic coercion?
The European Council on Foreign Relations in the context of the French Presidency of the Council of the EU is delighted to invite you to a debate on the principles that should guide Europe’s quest for economic sovereignty
17 Dec
Europe’s answer to economic warfare: The EU’s anti-coercion instrument and building sovereignty in a networked world
Join ECFR in this two-part event on the EU’s potentially game-changing geopolitical instrument against economic blackmail from great powers, and the principles that should guide Europe’s quest for economic sovereignty
15 Dec
Strategic sovereignty: how can Europe survive Biden’s presidency
The event will convene a high-level group of Italian decision-makers and opinion shapers across government, business, media and the expert community as well as member of ECFR Council
In the media
In this op-ed, Julien Barnes-Dacey and Jeremy Shapiro explain why the West should give up the battle of narratives
The key challenge for Europeans in their relationship with the US is the lack of a consensus on handling it, which impairs the development of a cohesive European foreign policy
Jeremy Shapiro on how the EU can prepare to 2024 US presidential elections
The Biden administration decided to ship morally questionable cluster munitions to Ukraine, largely because it lacked sufficient supplies of other types of artillery shell
Jeremy Shapiro on the material scarcity associated to US support for Ukraine
Jeremy Shapiro comments on the geopolitical context of Israel’s ground operation in Gaza
Washington should seek to stabilize its relationship with Ankara, despite the fact that Turkey has embraced a post-Western identity at home and a post-Western posture in its foreign policy
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Jeremy Shapiro on US-Turkey relations