The EU and Belarus after the election
A weakened Lukashenka means it’s time the EU started talking to Russia
Experts & Staff
Andrew Wilson
Senior Policy Fellow
Areas of expertise
Ukraine; comparative politics of democratisation in the post-Soviet states; political technology
Languages
English, Russian, Ukrainian, some Belarusian, conversational French
Biography
Andrew Wilson is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. His topics of focus include Ukraine, comparative politics of democratisation in the post-Soviet states, and political technology
Wilson is Professor in Ukrainian Studies at University College London. His book Ukraine Crisis: What the West Needs to Know was published by Yale in October 2014 in the UK and in November in the USA. He has worked extensively on the comparative politics of the post-Soviet states since 1990. His other books include Belarus: The Last European Dictatorship (2011), The Ukrainians: Unexpected Nation (Third edition, 2009), Ukraine’s Orange Revolution (2005) and Virtual Politics: Faking Democracy in the Post-Soviet World (2005).
The last dictator’s last hurrah
President Lukashenka doesn't expect to lose the election being held in Belarus, but the great survivor knows that his basic strategy is under severe strain – both at home and abroad
Neo-Titoism spreads as Brussels? influence wanes
The EU’s annual summit with Ukraine takes place with Brussels desperately searching for success stories in the Eastern Neighbourhood. The countries there are increasingly acting as balancers rather than joiners, treading a fine line between the EU and Moscow
European security: The spectre of a multipolar Europe
The EU needs to build a trialogue on security with Russia and Turkey
The Rostov summit
Russian and EU leaders will gather in Rostov-on-Don for their bi-annual summit on 31 May ? 1 June. The geographical symbolism is not good: Rostov is only a few kilometres from Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The political mood leading up to the summit seems a little better.
Tilting towards Russia?
The Ukrainian pendulum is swinging in the direction of Moscow. This is not necessarily just because of gas or economics. It could also be because Kiev feels Russia is a better long-term bet than the West, and that should be worrying a lot of people.
The Polish-Russian rapprochement gathers steam
The tragic plane crash in Smolensk has brought Russia and Poland closer together. Emotions aside, what do they both want to gain from the rapprochement?
What are the Ukrainians playing at?
Eggs, smoke bombs and the Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine is back to playing the game it knows best: the balancing act between East and West.
Eastern Europe after the tragedy in Smolensk
The tragedy of the Smolensk plane crash has led to a strengthening of the rapprochement between Moscow and Warsaw. But is the reconciliation built upon more than a hug between Vladimir Putin and Donald Tusk?
Yanukovych and Nixon
President Yanukovych could be a ?Ukrainian Nixon’: Just as Nixon used his anti-communist credentials to pave his engagement with China, Yanukovych could use his pro-Russian credentials to reassure Ukraine’s Russian-speaking population while reaching out to Europe
Publications
Reformation nation: Wartime politics in Ukraine
No clear postwar situation is likely to emerge in Ukraine. The country’s EU partners will have to help it reform during wartime.
Cold winter: How the EU can help Moldova survive Russian pressure and protect its democracy
If Moldova can resist Russia’s weaponisation of gas and get through this winter, it should be able to make strong progress on its programme of reforms
Faltering fightback: Zelensky’s piecemeal campaign against Ukraine’s oligarchs
The campaign has encouraged Zelensky’s tendency towards governance through informal means. This has allowed him to act speedily – but it risks letting oligarchic influence return
Lessons from Belarus: How the EU can support clean elections in Moldova and Georgia
The EU should make use of its significant leverage in Georgia and Moldova to counter their ruling parties’ extensive repertoire of electoral dirty tricks
Zelensky unchained: What Ukraine’s new political order means for its future
Introduction Volodymyrska Hill, Kyiv, on a June evening in 2019. Kyivans and tourists stroll along the riverside park’s newly relaid paths, many wending their way…
Partners for Life: Europe’s Unanswered ‘Eastern Question’
Dramatic change may not be on the cards, but the EU can and should shift to a ‘status quo plus’ approach that builds on existing activity
So far from god, so close to Russia: Belarus and the Zapad military exercise
Renewed Minsk-Moscow cooperation in the ‘Zapad’ war games should not see the door to Belarus closed
Russia 2030: A story of great power dreams and small victorious wars
The future of Europe’s relations with Russia looks bleak as the Kremlin pursues an increasingly aggressive foreign policy
Survival of the richest: How oligarchs block reform in Ukraine
The penetration of Ukrainian politics by the super-rich oligarchy still forms a major obstacle to reform
What does Ukraine think?
Ukrainian experts on war, politics and national identity
Articles
Democracy under siege: Tackling Russian interference in Moldova
Moldova’s recent local elections faced unprecedented levels of Russian interference. In the lead up to the presidential election next year, the EU should help Moldova counter these threats before it’s too late
Escape routes: How the EU can help Moldova end its dependence on Russian gas
Moldova’s total dependence on Russian gas makes it a key front in Moscow’s hybrid war. The EU should help Moldova diversify its energy supplies to prevent further destabilisation.
Russia, Ukraine, and the Orthodox church: Where religion meets geopolitics and war
In Ukraine and North Macedonia, the Orthodox Church is facing deep, even violent, splits, on the one hand; and is edging closer to resolving decades-old disputes, on the other
Inside the Russian geopolitical mind: Pseudo-justifications behind the war in Ukraine
Russia sees two types of sovereignty in its civilisational space. Full Westphalian sovereignty – which it believes it has and Ukraine does not. This means that defending Ukraine means defending its sovereignty in full.
How to train your dictator: Putin’s control over Lukashenka
Lukashenka is complicit in Russia’s war on Ukraine. But this should not stigmatise members of the Belarusian democratic movement – who need more support than they are receiving.
Moldovan lessons for the Ukraine conflict
Relations between Moldova and Transnistria seem to be losing some of their traditional hostility. But, if Russia is in a hurry to achieve a public relations victory in Moldova, Chisinau will find it difficult to make progress in talks with the Transnistrian authorities.
Moldova’s gas deal with Russia: David tries to draw with Goliath
The EU should learn from Moldova’s response to its gas crisis. It would be a mistake to link Russian concessions on energy prices to talks in areas such as trade policy.
Separate ways: Contrasting elections in Georgia and Moldova
Recent elections have seen Georgia’s ruling party dig in, while Moldova’s has lost the presidency
Misrule of law: Ukraine’s constitutional crisis
President Volodymyr Zelensky could violate the constitution as he tries to prevent the Constitutional Court from dismantling governance reforms
Belarus and Armenia: How Russia handles uprisings
Russia’s goal in its neighbourhood is to regain influence, not to be surrounded by neutral, self-sufficient buffer states
Podcasts
Ukrainian identity and Russian strategy
What concepts define Ukrainian history and identity, and how is this important in understanding Ukraine’s response to the Russian invasion?
Kyiv’s relations with Europe in the age of Nord Stream 2
What can and should the EU do to support Ukrainian sovereignty?
Belarus’s brutal politics
What kind of implications do the developments in Belarus have for the wider neighbourhood and Europe?
Trump’s dirty tricks
Although US President Donald Trump’s efforts to undermine the election are shameless, they are still more subtle than the outright election rigging that one finds…
Protest movement in Belarus: Will Lukashenko survive the current state (of) crisis?
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro stepped in as host and welcomes senior policy fellows Kadri Liik and Andrew Wilson as well as political scientist…
The Sea of Azov: The newest front in the war in Ukraine?
Mark Leonard speaks with Andrew Wilson, Kadri Liik and Nicu Popescu about the Kerch Strait ship capture, what this means and how the international community…
Is Peace in Sight in Donbas?
ECFR’s director Mark Leonard discusses peacekeeping in Ukraine and the EU's Russia policy with ECFR's Russia expert, Kadri Liik and ECFR's Ukraine expert Andrew Wilson
The European Union and the Eastern neighbourhood
Discussion avec Andrew Wilson, senior policy fellow du programme Wider Europe de l'ECFR et Mathilde Ciulla, coordinatrice du bureau de Paris de l'ECFR,…
L’Union européenne et le Partenariat oriental
Podcast de la conférence “L’Union européenne et le Partenariat oriental” du 19/10 à la Maison de l'Europe de Paris avec Andrew Wilson, senior…
ECFR’s World in 30 Minutes: Ukraine’s 25th anniversary of independence
ECFR’s director Mark Leonard speaks with experts Andrew Wilson, Fredrik Wesslau and Gustav Gressel, about rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbass, the Minsk agreement,…
Events
22 Mar
Insight Ukraine: How Europeans can support the fight for Europe
In challenging times for Ukraine, despite public appraisals following the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ten-year mark of the Russian…
In the media
Although there’s been some slight shift in public opinion, the crisis doesn’t change the fundamentals of Moldova’s European direction
Andrew Wilson on how the energy crisis affects tensions between Moldova and the breakaway territory of Transnistria
Ukraine was a factor in delaying Johnson’s resignation
Andrew Wilson assesses the relevance of Boris Johnson’s resignation on the war in Ukraine
There is a danger that the West’s solidarity with Ukraine will trump its previous support for the Belarusian opposition. Indeed, the Belarusian democratic movement may find it harder to gain attention
Pavel Slunkin and Andrew Wilson’s analysis on Belarus’ government’s support for Russia on the invasion of Ukraine
This is really the War of the Big Lie. The Lie that Ukraine doesn’t exist. The Lie that Ukraine has no right to full sovereignty because it is a puppet state of the West.
Andrew Wilson gives insight into how the West must handle Putin’s ‘war of the Big Lie’
It is the standard not just Russian but Soviet method: brinkmanship, demand the maximum, don’t concede, extract concessions from the other side
Andrew Wilson on Vladimir Putin’s aggressive stance