How migration became a weapon: the Belarus-Polish border crisis
What is coercive engineered migration? And what would be the best way for the EU to respond to Minsk’s tactics?
Experts & Staff
Pavel Slunkin
Visiting Fellow
Areas of expertise
Belarus domestic and foreign policy issues, relations with Russia and the European Union
Languages
Belarusian, Russian, English, Spanish. Swedish and Polish (both basic level)
Biography
Pavel Slunkin is a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, based in ECFR’s Warsaw office. He works on Belarus-related issues: its domestic and foreign policy, relations with Russia, the European Union, and the United States.
Prior to joining ECFR he worked for the foreign ministry of Belarus. Slunkin participated in Minsk talks on Ukraine preparation and worked as political analyst at the embassy of Belarus in Lithuania.
Slunkin holds a BA (Hons) in International Relations from the Belarusian State University and is an alumnus of several programmes by Clingendael Institute of International Relations (the Netherlands), Wake Forest University (US), Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (Germany).
No quiet on the eastern front: The migration crisis engineered by Belarus
The EU should show the Lukashenka regime that it will no longer tolerate the weaponisation of migration. As with any form of blackmail, it would be senseless and dangerous to make concessions – because the aggressor will only demand more.
The young and the restless: Europe, Russia, and the next generation of diplomats in the Eastern Partnership
Young diplomats in Eastern Partnership countries are optimistic and pro-European. Many of them want the EU to become a bolder geopolitical actor.
Belarus’s creature of crisis: Two heads, one body
A year on from the falsified presidential election, two Belaruses now occupy the international arena. Neither the West nor Russia will be able to change this reality, but each will have to learn to live with both.
The EU and Belarus: First steps to flexing European geopolitical muscle
The arrest of Raman Pratasevich changed the calculus for EU capitals, which agreed new sanctions with real bite. The EU could finally be succeeding in its search for strategic sovereignty.
How the EU should respond to Belarus
What will be the impact of the EU and US measures against Belarus? And what should be next steps also ahead of the EU-US summit on 15 June?
After the Pratasevich arrest: Four key steps for the EU on Belarus
Belarus will continue to cause problems on the EU’s doorstep – so it is now time for a firmer, longer-term approach
Happy birthday, Eastern Partnership: Celebrations deferred, not cancelled
The EU’s success is mixed in generating reform among Eastern Partnership countries. But patience and self-confidence remain its best bet for the future.
Belarus’s brutal politics
What kind of implications do the developments in Belarus have for the wider neighbourhood and Europe?
The trouble with unchecked power: Why Putin will never leave
If he had thoughts of leaving the Kremlin prior to the Navalny assassination attempt, Vladimir Putin likely now sees no exit for himself
Publications
The young and the restless: Europe, Russia, and the next generation of diplomats in the Eastern Partnership
Young diplomats in Eastern Partnership countries are optimistic and pro-European. Many of them want the EU to become a bolder geopolitical actor.
Articles
A prison of the mind: Lukashenka’s pursuit of exiled Belarusians
The EU should invest more to support Belarus’s community of émigrés – through whom a different future for the country is possible
Coming of age: How young diplomats see the future of the EU’s Eastern Partnership initiative
The EU should reform its Eastern Partnership initiative to better address the different needs and priorities of the partner countries
Death in Belarus: The meaning behind Lukashenka’s new foreign minister choices
As he appoints a new foreign minister after the death of Uladzimir Makei, Lukashenka has three potential options to choose from
Putin’s last ally: Why the Belarusian army cannot help Russia in Ukraine
Concerns are mounting that Belarusian troops could join Russia’s forces in Ukraine. But this course of action would be extremely risky – for both Putin and Lukashenka
Dual intentions: Why the Belarusian regime and its people are not one and the same
The Belarusian people are overwhelmingly against Russia’s war in Ukraine. European leaders should recall the 2020 uprisings in Belarus before conflating the country’s citizens with their illegitimate leader.
Deeds not words: Why the West should keep a close eye on Lukashenka
Recent military activity in Belarus, combined with Putin’s leverage over Lukashenka, suggests an ongoing threat of Belarusian troops joining hostilities in Ukraine
How to train your dictator: Putin’s control over Lukashenka
Lukashenka is complicit in Russia’s war on Ukraine. But this should not stigmatise members of the Belarusian democratic movement – who need more support than they are receiving.
Bonfire of sovereignty: Russian tanks in Belarus
Regardless of whether Russia launches another major offensive against Ukraine, Belarus’s territory will increasingly become a source of military threats to all its western neighbours – not just Ukraine
Kazakh lessons for authoritarian leaders: How Putin and Lukashenka could fail the test
Before the January 2022 riots, Kazakhstan was a model for managing transitions of power in the post-Soviet world. The leaders of Russia and Belarus will be furiously taking notes on how to avoid a similar fate.
No quiet on the eastern front: The migration crisis engineered by Belarus
The EU should show the Lukashenka regime that it will no longer tolerate the weaponisation of migration. As with any form of blackmail, it would be senseless and dangerous to make concessions – because the aggressor will only demand more.
Podcasts
How migration became a weapon: the Belarus-Polish border crisis
What is coercive engineered migration? And what would be the best way for the EU to respond to Minsk’s tactics?
How the EU should respond to Belarus
What will be the impact of the EU and US measures against Belarus? And what should be next steps also ahead of the EU-US summit on 15 June?
Belarus’s brutal politics
What kind of implications do the developments in Belarus have for the wider neighbourhood and Europe?
Events
7 Jun
Belarus after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The challenge of dual political identity
How to effectively separate the Belarusian society from the regime when taking sanctions measures? Will the independence of Belarus survive international isolation left alone with an expansionist Russia?
In the media
Moreover, a ‘reliable and secure base for the Russian army in Belarus” could be more valuable at the moment from the Russian point of view than “an unpredictable second front in Ukraine’
Pavel Slunkin on the potential support of Belarus in Russia’s war in Ukraine
Belarus as already a part of the war in Ukraine, writes Pavel Slunkin
Pavel Slunkin on what Putin wants from Belarus
It is to make people afraid. It is to demoralize them and to make them feel unprotected — that this can happen to anyone at any time
Pavel Slunkin comments on the legacy of the protests against Lukashenko
Lukashenko’s messages are becoming more and more radical, but in the end it is not what he says but what he does that is crucial
Pavel Slunkin comments on Lukashenko’s speech in which he refers to a “joint army” with Russia