Lukashenka is complicit in Russia’s war on Ukraine. But this should not stigmatise members of the Belarusian democratic movement – who need more support than they are receiving.
Regardless of whether Russia launches another major offensive against Ukraine, Belarus’s territory will increasingly become a source of military threats to all its western neighbours – not just Ukraine
Before the January 2022 riots, Kazakhstan was a model for managing transitions of power in the post-Soviet world. The leaders of Russia and Belarus will be furiously taking notes on how to avoid a similar fate.
The EU should show the Lukashenka regime that it will no longer tolerate the weaponisation of migration. As with any form of blackmail, it would be senseless and dangerous to make concessions – because the aggressor will only demand more.
A year on from the falsified presidential election, two Belaruses now occupy the international arena. Neither the West nor Russia will be able to change this reality, but each will have to learn to live with both.
The arrest of Raman Pratasevich changed the calculus for EU capitals, which agreed new sanctions with real bite. The EU could finally be succeeding in its search for strategic sovereignty.
Belarus will continue to cause problems on the EU’s doorstep – so it is now time for a firmer, longer-term approach
The EU’s success is mixed in generating reform among Eastern Partnership countries. But patience and self-confidence remain its best bet for the future.
If he had thoughts of leaving the Kremlin prior to the Navalny assassination attempt, Vladimir Putin likely now sees no exit for himself
Many of the EU’s neighbours are hoping it will help them secure vaccines – leaving offers from China and Russia to flood in