A year on from the falsified presidential election, two Belaruses now occupy the international arena. Neither the West nor Russia will be able to change this reality, but each will have to learn to live with both.
The arrest of Raman Pratasevich changed the calculus for EU capitals, which agreed new sanctions with real bite. The EU could finally be succeeding in its search for strategic sovereignty.
Belarus will continue to cause problems on the EU’s doorstep – so it is now time for a firmer, longer-term approach
The EU’s success is mixed in generating reform among Eastern Partnership countries. But patience and self-confidence remain its best bet for the future.
If he had thoughts of leaving the Kremlin prior to the Navalny assassination attempt, Vladimir Putin likely now sees no exit for himself
Many of the EU’s neighbours are hoping it will help them secure vaccines – leaving offers from China and Russia to flood in
Aliaksandr Lukashenka rewrote the rules to keep himself in power. But it did not succeed in 2020 – and the EU will not be able to remain a spectator to Belarus’s problems forever
The current renaissance of civil society in Belarus has been possible thanks to, among other things, the development of the EU’s dialogue with the country in recent years
Unrest in Belarus has forced Moscow to look for new ways to strengthen its political and economic control in the country