Putin’s last ally: Why the Belarusian army cannot help Russia in Ukraine
Concerns are mounting that Belarusian troops could join Russia’s forces in Ukraine. But this course of action would be extremely risky – for both Putin and Lukashenka
Pavel Slunkin
Dual intentions: Why the Belarusian regime and its people are not one and the same
The Belarusian people are overwhelmingly against Russia’s war in Ukraine. European leaders should recall the 2020 uprisings in Belarus before conflating the country’s citizens with their illegitimate leader
Deeds not words: Why the West should keep a close eye on Lukashenka
Recent military activity in Belarus, combined with Putin’s leverage over Lukashenka, suggests an ongoing threat of Belarusian troops joining hostilities in Ukraine
How to train your dictator: Putin’s control over Lukashenka
Lukashenka is complicit in Russia’s war on Ukraine. But this should not stigmatise members of the Belarusian democratic movement – who need more support than they are receiving
Bonfire of sovereignty: Russian tanks in Belarus
Regardless of whether Russia launches another major offensive against Ukraine, Belarus’s territory will increasingly become a source of military threats to all its western neighbours – not just Ukraine
Kazakh lessons for authoritarian leaders: How Putin and Lukashenka could fail the test
Before the January 2022 riots, Kazakhstan was a model for managing transitions of power in the post-Soviet world. The leaders of Russia and Belarus will be furiously taking notes on how to avoid a similar fate
No quiet on the eastern front: The migration crisis engineered by Belarus
The EU should show the Lukashenka regime that it will no longer tolerate the weaponisation of migration. As with any form of blackmail, it would be senseless and dangerous to make concessions – because the aggressor will only demand more
Belarus’s creature of crisis: Two heads, one body
A year on from the falsified presidential election, two Belaruses now occupy the international arena. Neither the West nor Russia will be able to change this reality, but each will have to learn to live with both
The EU and Belarus: First steps to flexing European geopolitical muscle
The arrest of Raman Pratasevich changed the calculus for EU capitals, which agreed new sanctions with real bite. The EU could finally be succeeding in its search for strategic sovereignty
After the Pratasevich arrest: Four key steps for the EU on Belarus
Belarus will continue to cause problems on the EU’s doorstep – so it is now time for a firmer, longer-term approach