Beyond ISIS and the Collapsing Levantine Order
The Levantine order is in a state of implosion and a new geography of power is emerging
Experts & Staff
Julien Barnes-Dacey
Director, Middle East and North Africa programme
Areas of expertise
Middle East and North Africa
Languages
English, French, Arabic
Biography
Julien Barnes-Dacey is the director of the Middle East & North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He works on European policy towards the wider region, with a particular focus on Syria and regional geopolitics.
Barnes-Dacey’s recent publications include “Principled pragmatism: Europe’s place in a multipolar Middle East,” “Society max: How Europe can help Syrians survive Assad and coronavirus,” and “Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East.” His work has been published in the likes of Foreign Policy, Politico, the Financial Times, and the New York Times.
Immediately prior to joining ECFR Barnes-Dacey headed the MENA practice at Control Risks, a private sector consultancy. Before this he worked as a journalist across the Middle East. Based in Syria from 2007 to 2010, he reported for publications including the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Christian Science Monitor. He worked across Iraq as editor of Niqash and was also based in Egypt. Barnes-Dacey was an assistant foreign editor for UK television’s Channel 4 News, and a field producer for Al Jazeera International.
Barnes-Dacey holds a BA in history from the London School of Economics, an MA in Middle Eastern Studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies, and studied Arabic at the Institut Français du Proche-Orient.
ECFR’s World in 30 Minutes: ISIS
ECFR's director Mark Leonard speaks to ECFR Middle East experts and policy fellows Ellie Geranmayeh and Julien Barnes-Dacey about the geopolitics of ISIS and…
The uncertain future of Yemen
ECFR Senior Policy Fellow, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Visiting Fellow, Adam Baron, discuss the recent developments in Yemen and take a look at where the…
Why it may suit Iran to let the Saudis win in Yemen
Analysis: For outside powers, the Yemen crisis is part of a balancing act with the nuclear deal at its heart
ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror
Syrian researcher Hassan Hassan and ECFR's Senior Policy Fellow Julien Barnes-Dacy discuss the challenges and threats posed by ISIS. …
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2015
The fifth edition of ECFR’s Foreign Policy Scorecard examines EU’s response to a year of crisis
The Islamic State, Sectarianism and the Struggle for Iraq
Nickolay Mladenov, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Iraq, and ECFR's Julien Barnes-Dacey assess the critical dynamics in Iraq and the current conditions…
Iran in the regional order: a truce or continued confrontation?
Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR Senior Policy Fellow, discuss the thinking among policy makers in…
The Islamic State through the regional lens
Essay collection on the regional dimensions of the IS crisis
Julien Barnes-Dacey on how to deal with ISIS
Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR senior policy fellow and expert on the Middle East, talks about the publication “The Islamic State through the Regional Lens” and…
Publications
Principled pragmatism: Europe’s place in a multipolar Middle East
Europeans need to deal with the Middle East as it is rather than as they want it to be, while staying focused on the principles needed to secure longer-term stability
The fall of the Afghan government and what it means for Europe
ECFR’s policy experts examine what the Taliban takeover means for countries and regions around the world: Europe, the US, the Middle East, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Sahel
Promoting European strategic sovereignty in the southern neighbourhood
To achieve greater sovereignty, Europe needs to push back against rival powers, build leverage in armed conflicts, and be more effective in supporting reform
A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration
The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration
Society max: How Europe can help Syrians survive Assad and coronavirus
European governments should pivot to a strategy focused on protecting those societal forces that are still standing and that can help salvage a better future
To end a war: Europe’s role in bringing peace to Syria
National politics need to be front and centre in de-escalation efforts
The war next door: Syria and the erosion of stability in Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey
Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey have so far been resilient to the spillover from Syria’s civil war, but now the region’s stability is hanging by a thread
European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2016
The sixth ECFR Foreign Policy Scorecard highlights the EU’s diminishing ability to influence its neighbours, and the neighbourhood’s growing impact on the EU
Syrian Diplomacy Renewed: From Vienna to Raqqa
An “Islamic State first” strategy, that neglects the urgent need to secure political progress and de-escalation in Syria will fail
Responding to an assertive Gulf
Europe’s relationships with the six Arab Gulf states that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have failed to keep up with their increasing importance
Articles
Internalising peace: How to build on Saudi-Iranian de-escalation for a settlement in Yemen
The normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran has provided welcome impetus towards peace in Yemen. But resolving the regional dimension of the conflict should not come at the expense of inclusive, intra-Yemeni negotiations under UN auspices
The shoots of stability: What the Saudi-Iran deal means for the Middle East and Europe
Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to begin the process of normalising their relations. Europeans should consider how to help entrench the stabilising gains of the agreement – even as they navigate difficulties with Iran
Humanitarian first: Delivering aid to Syria in the aftermath of the earthquake
In the aftermath of the earthquake, minimal aid is reaching north-west Syria, the most affected region in the country. European governments need to put humanitarian imperatives first, even if this means temporarily abandoning longstanding political positions
Three ways European governments can support Iranian protesters
The protest movement sweeping Iran is an Iranian-led struggle. But European governments can play their part by focusing on measures that help protect protesters.
Global pitch: The World Cup, Gulf Arab states, and the Middle East’s losing sides
The World Cup in Qatar, with all its money and glitz, shines a light on the disconnect between winners and losers in the Middle East
Order of engagement: Assad’s visit to Abu Dhabi
The UAE’s embrace of Assad is central to the construction of a new regional order that preserves Emirati influence
Council of war: The future of UN cooperation on Bosnia and Syria
Europe needs to prepare for a breakdown of multilateral cooperation with Russia. Yet, in doing so, it should be careful not to provide space for Moscow to justify unilateral action of its own.
Unsettled: The impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the Middle East and North Africa
Heightened conflict in Ukraine could have serious consequences for European interests in the Middle East and North Africa. It could further disrupt energy supplies, exacerbate food insecurity, and help states in the region gain leverage over the US and Europe.
New momentum? The US, Iran, and the fate of the JCPOA
The United States and Iran may finally be converging on a shared commitment to a new nuclear deal. This agreement would not be perfect, but the alternatives are far worse.
Cooling-off: How Europe can help stabilise the Middle East
As countries across the Middle East pause to take stock of recent conflicts, Europeans need to do more to support dialogue
Specials
Guns and governance: How Europe should talk with non-state armed groups in the Middle East
European governments need a deeper engagement strategy to draw these powerful actors into inclusive political processes and power-sharing structures that can help stabilise the region
Deep sea rivals: Europe, Turkey, and new eastern Mediterranean conflict lines
The eastern Mediterranean is becoming ever more perilous as geopolitical fault lines steadily enmesh the region. These rifts emerge from the Cyprus ‘frozen conflict’, competition for valuable gas fields, and the increasingly entangled wars in Libya and Syria.
Mapping European leverage in the MENA region
Turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa directly affects Europeans. Yet their influence in the region has never been weaker. This project maps Europe’s role across the Middle East and north Africa, making the case that Europeans can do more to leverage their influence in pursuit of core interests
The Middle East’s new battle lines
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
Podcasts
The Iran-Saudi deal and its impact
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Cinzia Bianco and Andrew Small, to talk about the new Saudi – Iran deal
The Middle East and the Ukraine war: energy supplies, nuclear deals and regional tensions
On location at the Doha Forum 2022, Mark Leonard and his guests discuss Western energy sanctions on Russia and why is there a reluctance in the Gulf states and the West to cooperate on energy supplies
Syria’s war, Europe’s problem
What does the re-engagement of regional actors mean for the future of Syria? And what role can Europe play to create breathing space in the country?
Europe’s role in a post-American Middle East
Who is filling the vacuum which the US is increasingly leaving behind in the MENA region? How are regional actors reacting to US disengagement?
The election of President Ebrahim Raisi and the future of Iran
Does the election of Raisi represent a significant change of direction following the term of President Rouhani?
Understanding the conflict in Western Sahara
What is the Western Sahara conflict is all about, and how will the most recent developments between Morocco and Spain influence this conflict?
How the Turkey-UAE Rivalry is remaking the Middle East
How can the EU prevent the Turkey-UAE rivalry from destabilising European security and foreign policy?
Europe’s new transatlantic bargain for Biden’s America
When Biden enters the White House, he will look for a Europe that brings solutions rather than problems. Europeans should show they can be an equal partner & offer him a new transatlantic bargain.
ECFR Conversation with Ibrahim Kalin
ECFR Conversation with Ibrahim Kalin, Spokesman and Senior Advisor to the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Chaired by Julien Barnes-Dacey, Director of ECFR’s…
Geopolitics in the coronavirus era – who will be crowned winner?
Last week’s episode saw our experts dissecting the coronavirus’ implications for Europe. In today's episode, we’re breaking down how the crisis is unfolding in the…
Events
13 Dec
Part of the problem? A better European approach to human rights in the Middle East and North Africa
How can Europeans more effectively advance their human rights agenda as part of, and while maintaining, their broader relationships with regional states?
In the media
The question of whether this regional rapprochement can translate into a meaningful, inclusive settlement between the warring Yemeni parties remains to be seen
In an interview with France24, Julien Barnes-Dacey analyses how the restored diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran could influence the Yemen conflict
The question of whether this regional rapprochement can translate into a meaningful, inclusive settlement between the warring Yemeni parties remains to be seen
Julien Barnes-Dacey on the ripple effects of Saudi-Iran rapprochement
These moves are most definitely not driven by a primary focus on the plight of Syrians inside the country or any unified regional desire to improve the country’s pretty desperate circumstances
Julien Barnes-Dacey comments on the rapprochement between the Syrian government and its Arab neighbors
The fundamental reality here is that China was able to step in because they had the relationship and the leverage with all sides to try and push this forward
Julien Barnes-Dacey argues that the US, long the undisputed shaping power in the Gulf, has failed to bridge the gap between Iran and Saudi Arabia
The United States has long been the undisputed power shaping relations in the Persian Gulf
Julien Barnes-Dacey’s analysis on the role of China as mediator in the Middle East